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Comparative extinction risk analysis—which predicts species extinction risk from correlation with traits or geographical characteristics—has gained research attention as a promising tool to support extinction risk assessment in the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. However, its uptake has been very limited so far, possibly because existing models only predict a species' Red List category, without indicating which Red List criteria may be triggered. This prevents such approaches to be integrated into Red List assessments. We overcome this implementation gap by developing models that predict the probability of species meeting individual Red List criteria. Using data on the world's birds, we evaluated the predictive performance of our criterion‐specific models and compared it with the typical criterion‐blind modelling approach. We compiled data on biological traits (e.g. range size, clutch size) and external drivers (e.g. change in canopy cover) often associated with extinction risk. For each specific criterion, we modelled the relationship between extinction risk predictors and species' Red List category under that criterion using ordinal regression models. We found criterion‐specific models were better at identifying threatened species compared to a criterion‐blind model (higher sensitivity), but less good at identifying not threatened species (lower specificity). As expected, different covariates were important for predicting extinction risk under different criteria. Change in annual temperature was important for criteria related to population trends, while high forest dependency was important for criteria related to restricted area of occupancy or small population size. Our criteria‐specific method can support Red List assessors by producing outputs that identify species likely to meet specific criteria, and which are the most important predictors. These species can then be prioritised for re‐evaluation. We expect this new approach to increase the uptake of extinction risk models in Red List assessments, bridging a long‐standing research‐implementation gap. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Research on island species–area relationships (ISAR) has expanded to incorporate functional (IFDAR) and phylogenetic (IPDAR) diversity. However, relative to the ISAR, we know little about IFDARs and IPDARs, and lack synthetic global analyses of variation in form of these three categories of island diversity–area relationship (IDAR). Here, we undertake the first comparative evaluation of IDARs at the global scale using 51 avian archipelagic data sets representing true and habitat islands. Using null models, we explore how richness‐corrected functional and phylogenetic diversity scale with island area. We also provide the largest global assessment of the impacts of species introductions and extinctions on the IDAR. Results show that increasing richness with area is the primary driver of the (non‐richness corrected) IPDAR and IFDAR for many data sets. However, for several archipelagos, richness‐corrected functional and phylogenetic diversity changes linearly with island area, suggesting that the dominant community assembly processes shift along the island area gradient. We also find that archipelagos with the steepest ISARs exhibit the biggest differences in slope between IDARs, indicating increased functional and phylogenetic redundancy on larger islands in these archipelagos. In several cases introduced species seem to have 're‐calibrated' the IDARs such that they resemble the historic period prior to recent extinctions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Red List Index (RLI) measures change in the aggregate extinction risk of species. It is a key indicator for tracking progress toward nine of the Aichi and many proposed post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework Targets. Here, we consider two formulations of the RLI used for reporting biodiversity trends at national scales. Disaggregated global RLIs measure changing national contributions to global extinction risk and are currently based on five taxonomic groups, while national RLIs measure changing national extinction risk and are based on taxonomic groups assessed multiple times in country. For 74% of nations, the disaggregated global RLI is currently based on three or fewer taxonomic groups. Meanwhile, national RLIs from selected pilot countries Finland, South Africa, and Brazil are computed from twelve, eight, and nine taxonomic groups, respectively. The national RLI and the disaggregated global RLI measure different aspects of biodiversity, in that the former detects national trends in populations of species for which each country is responsible while the latter provides standardized comparisons of nations' contributions to the global extinction risk of the same species groups. As governments commit to the post‐2020 Global Biodiversity Framework, we encourage them to monitor a standard set of taxonomic groups representing different biomes using both RLI formulations to ensure effective target tracking and accurate feedback on their conservation investments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Humans are quickly reshaping species assemblages through the loss and gain of species at multiple scales. Extinctions and introductions are non‐random events known to be contributing to taxonomic homogenization. However, it is not yet clear if they also promote functional homogenization. Here, we assess whether extinctions and introductions are leading to taxonomic and functional homogenization of 64 oceanic island bird assemblages, belonging to 11 archipelagos.Based on island lists of extinct and extant, native and introduced species and on species traits, we use probabilistic hypervolumes in trait space to calculate functional beta‐diversity before and after extinctions and introductions. Bird extinctions and introductions promoted taxonomic and functional homogenization on most oceanic islands. These results follow our expectations, considering previous studies on taxonomic homogenization, the predictable link between taxonomic and functional diversity, and the trait similarity of many introduced species, often adapted to anthropogenic habitats, linked to the non‐randomness of bird introductions on islands.Taxonomic homogenization was more common across than within archipelagos, also corroborating previous studies describing stronger homogenization on islands that are further apart and thus had distinctive native assemblages. Surprisingly, the widespread loss of species with similar traits, namely large flightless birds, often led to functional differentiation across archipelagos. However, this differentiation effect tended to be offset by the homogenizing effect of introductions.Functional homogenization increases the vulnerability to global changes, by reducing the variability of responses to disturbance and thus the resilience of ecosystem services, posing a threat to human societies on islands. Our results highlight subtle variations in taxonomic and functional beta‐diversity of bird assemblages in oceanic islands, providing important insights to allow a better assessment of how anthropogenic changes might alter ecosystem functioning, which is vital to develop effective long‐term conservation strategies. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The world's islands support disproportionate levels of endemic avian biodiversity despite suffering numerous extinctions. While intensive recent research has focused on island bird conservation or extinction, few global syntheses have considered these factors together from the perspective of morphological trait diversity. Here, we provide a global summary of the status and ecology of extant and extinct island birds, the threats they face and the implications of species loss for island functional diversity. Location: Global. Taxon: Birds. Methods: We provide a review of the literature on threatened and extinct island birds, with a particular focus on global studies that have incorporated functional diversity. Alongside this, we analyse IUCN Red List data in relation to distribution, threats and taxonomy. Using null models and functional hypervolumes, in combination with morphological trait data, we assess the functional diversity represented by threatened and extinct island endemic birds. Results and main conclusions: We find that almost half of all island endemic birds extant in 1500 CE are currently either extinct or threatened with extinction, with the majority of threatened extant species having declining population trends. We also found evidence of 66 island endemic subspecies extinctions. The primary threats to extant island endemic birds currently are agriculture, biological resource use, and invasive species. While there is overlap between the hotspots of threatened and extinct island endemics birds, there are some notable differences, including the Philippines and Indonesia, which support a substantial number of threatened species but have no recorded post‐1500 CE bird extinctions. Traits associated with threatened island endemic birds are large body mass, flightlessness, aquatic predator, omnivorous and vertivorous trophic niches, marine habitat affinity, and, paradoxically, higher dispersal ability. Critically, we find that threatened endemics (i) occupy distinct areas of beak morphospace, and (ii) represent substantial unique areas of the overall functional space of island endemics. We caution that the loss of threatened species may have severe effects on the ecological functions birds provide on islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We analyse the consequences of species extinctions and introductions on the functional diversity and composition of island bird assemblages. Specifically, we ask if introduced species have compensated the functional loss resulting from species extinctions. Location: Seventy‐four oceanic islands (> 100 km2) in the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian Oceans. Time period: Late Holocene. Major taxa studied: Terrestrial and freshwater bird species. Methods: We compiled a species list per island (extinct and extant, native and introduced), and then compiled traits per species. We used single‐trait analyses to assess the effects of past species extinctions and introductions on functional composition. Then, we used probabilistic hypervolumes in trait space to calculate functional richness and evenness of original versus present avifaunas of each island (and net change), and to estimate how functionally unique are extinct and introduced species on each island. Results: The net effects of extinctions and introductions were: an increase in average species richness per island (alpha diversity), yet a decline in diversity across all islands (gamma diversity); an average increase in the prevalence of most functional traits, yet an average decline in functional richness and evenness, associated with the fact that extinct species were functionally more unique (when compared to extant natives) than introduced species. Main conclusions: Introduced species are on average offsetting (and even surpassing) the losses of extinct species per island in terms of species richness, and they are increasing the prevalence of most functional traits. However, they are not compensating for the loss of functional richness due to extinctions. Current island bird assemblages are becoming functionally poorer, having lost unique species and being composed of functionally more redundant species. This is likely to have cascading repercussions on the functioning of island ecosystems. We highlight that taxonomic and functional biodiversity should be assessed simultaneously to understand the global impacts of human activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims Human landscape disturbance can drive the degradation of natural environments, thereby contributing to indigenous (endemic and native non-endemic) species extinctions, facilitating the establishment of exotic species and ultimately resulting in more similar species compositions over time and space. We assessed whether similarities in epigean arthropod assemblages differ between indigenous and exotic species in an oceanic archipelago, and we also examined whether such assemblage similarities depend on the most dominant species, the island, the type of habitat, the degree of landscape disturbance or local environmental variables. Location Four oceanic islands in the Azores archipelago, Portugal. Methods We examined the degree of assemblage similarity and the effect of environmental variables and spatial disturbance to explain the epigean arthropod distributions for indigenous and exotic species. Results Exotic species increased overall assemblage similarity. Distinct arthropod assemblages occurred on the different islands and in the different habitats. Assemblage differences between the habitats depended on the island. This pattern was largely explained by the abundance patterns of the most abundant indigenous and exotic species (ten indigenous and ten exotic species accounted for 75% of total individuals). In comparison with the high explanatory capacity of the habitats and islands per se, local environmental variables and disturbance hardly explained the assemblage composition in both groups of species. Main conclusions We demonstrate that exotic species promote assemblage homogenization on these oceanic islands, and that such process is contingent and independent between islands and habitats. General habitat characteristics seemed to be the main driver of assemblage structure, independently of the different climatic conditions or disturbance levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim To identify the biogeographical factors underlying spider species richness in the Macaronesian region and assess the importance of species extinctions in shaping the current diversity. Location The European archipelagos of Macaronesia with an emphasis on the Azores and Canary Islands. Methods Seven variables were tested as predictors of single-island endemics (SIE), archipelago endemics and indigenous spider species richness in the Azores, Canary Islands and Macaronesia as a whole: island area; geological age; maximum elevation; distance from mainland; distance from the closest island; distance from an older island; and natural forest area remaining per island – a measure of deforestation (the latter only in the Azores). Different mathematical formulations of the general dynamic model of oceanic island biogeography (GDM) were also tested. Results Island area and the proportion of remaining natural forest were the best predictors of species richness in the Azores. In the Canary Islands, area alone did not explain the richness of spiders. However, a hump-shaped relationship between richness and time was apparent in these islands. The island richness in Macaronesia was correlated with island area, geological age, maximum elevation and distance to mainland. Main conclusions In Macaronesia as a whole, area, island age, the large distance that separates the Azores from the mainland, and the recent disappearance of native habitats with subsequent unrecorded extinctions seem to be the most probable explanations for the current observed richness. In the Canary Islands, the GDM model is strongly supported by many genera that radiated early, reached a peak at intermediate island ages, and have gone extinct on older, eroded islands. In the Azores, the unrecorded extinctions of many species in the oldest, most disturbed islands seem to be one of the main drivers of the current richness patterns. Spiders, the most important terrestrial predators on these islands, may be acting as early indicators for the future disappearance of other insular taxa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat destruction is the leading cause of species extinctions. However, there is typically a time-lag between the reduction in habitat area and the eventual disappearance of the remnant populations. These “surviving but ultimately doomed” species represent an extinction debt. Calculating the magnitude of such future extinction events has been hampered by potentially inaccurate assumptions about the slope of species–area relationships, which are habitat- and taxon-specific. We overcome this challenge by applying a method that uses the historical sequence of deforestation in the Azorean Islands, to calculate realistic and ecologically-adjusted species–area relationships. The results reveal dramatic and hitherto unrecognized levels of extinction debt, as a result of the extensive destruction of the native forest:>95%, in<600 yr. Our estimations suggest that more than half of the extant forest arthropod species, which have evolved in and are dependent on the native forest, might eventually be driven to extinction. Data on species abundances from Graciosa Island, where only a very small patch of secondary native vegetation still exists, as well as the number of species that have not been found in the last 45 yr, despite the extensive sampling effort, offer support to the predictions made. We argue that immediate action to restore and expand native forest habitat is required to avert the loss of numerous endemic species in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]