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European climate variability is shaped by atmospheric dynamics over the North Atlantic and local processes. Better understanding their future seasonality is essential to anticipate changes in weather conditions for human and natural systems. We explore atmospheric seasonality over 1979–2017 and 1979–2100 with seasonal circulation regimes (SCRs), by clustering year‐round daily fields of Z500 from the ERA‐Interim reanalysis and 12 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models (historical and RCP8.5 runs). The spatial and temporal variability of SCR structures and associated patterns of surface air temperature are investigated. Climate models have biases but reproduce structures and evolutions of SCRs similar to the reanalysis over 1979–2017: decreasing frequency of winter conditions (starting later and ending earlier in the year) and the opposite for summer conditions. These changes are stronger over 1979–2100 than over 1979–2017, associated with a large increase of North Atlantic seasonal mean Z500 and temperature. When using more SCRs (more freedom in definition of seasonality), the changes over 1979–2100 correspond to a long‐term swap between SCRs, resulting in similar structures (annual cycle and spatial patterns) relative to the evolution of seasonal mean Z500 and temperature. To understand whether the evolution of SCRs is linked to uniform warming, or to changes in circulation patterns, we remove the calendar trend in the Z500 regional average to define SCRs based on detrended data (d‐SCRs). The temporal properties of d‐SCRs appear almost constant whereas their spatial patterns change, indicating that the calendar Z500 regional trend drives the evolutions of SCRs, and that changing spatial patterns in d‐SCRs account for the heterogeneity of this trend. Our study suggests that historical winter conditions will continue to decrease in the future while historical summer conditions continue to increase. However, it also suggests that the spatial and temporal patterns of SCRs would remain similar, relatively to the year‐round Z500 increase. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modern history of North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows variability coinciding with changes in air temperature and rainfall over the Northern Hemisphere. There is a debate about this variability and, in particular, whether it is internal to the ocean‐atmosphere system or is forced by external factors (natural and anthropogenic). Here we present a temperature record, obtained using the Sr/Ca ratio measured in a skeleton of a sclerosponge, that shows agreement with the instrumental record over the past 150 years as well as multidecadal temperature variability over the last 600 years. Comparison with climate simulations of the last millennium shows that large cooling events recorded, in the sclerosponge, are consistent with natural (primarily volcanic activity) and anthropogenic forcings. There are, however, multidecadal periods not connected to current estimates of external forcing over the last millennium allowing for alternative explanations, such as internally driven changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation. Key Points: A high‐resolution 600‐year proxy temperature record from the subtropical Atlantic shows multidecadal temperature variabilityIn both models and observations, surface temperatures at this site are reflective of basin‐wide multidecadal variabilityComparison with Last Millennium climate model simulations shows the fingerprint of volcanically induced cooling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of future Arctic amplification (AA) on the extratropical atmospheric circulation remains unclear in modeling studies. Using a collection of coordinated atmospheric and coupled global climate model perturbation experiments, we find an emergent relationship between the high‐latitude 1,000–500 hPa thickness response and an enhancement of the Siberian High in winter. This wave number‐1‐like sea level pressure anomaly pattern is linked to an equatorward shift of the eddy‐driven jet and a dynamical cooling response in eastern Asia. Additional simulations, where AA is imposed directly into the model domain by nudging, demonstrate how the sea ice forcing is insufficient by itself to capture the vertical extent of the warming and by extension the amplitude of the response in the Siberian High. This study demonstrates the importance of the vertical extent of the tropospheric warming over the polar cap in revealing the "warm Arctic, cold Siberia" anomaly pattern in future projections. Plain Language Summary: Surface air temperature averaged within the Arctic Circle is rising more than twice as fast as the rate of the globally averaged temperature. This is known as "Arctic amplification" and is the result of numerous feedbacks in the Earth system. This warming is not restricted to the surface, as the temperature is also increasing at least to the middle troposphere in the Arctic. The effects of this warming on weather patterns in the midlatitudes remain uncertain in observations and model simulations. In this study, we conduct a series of climate model experiments to better understand how the vertical extent of warming in the Arctic atmosphere connects to a strengthening of the Siberian High in boreal winter. This high‐pressure response leads to colder air temperatures in eastern Asia through advection. We find that climate models prescribed with only Arctic sea ice loss do not fully capture the vertical extent of warming in the atmosphere, and thus underestimate the linkage between projected Arctic amplification and Eurasian climate. Key Points: Climate models forced only by sea ice anomalies do not capture the vertical extent of Arctic warming during winterIncrease in thickness of the winter 1,000–500 hPa layer is linked to a strengthening of the Siberian High and cold anomalies in eastern AsiaRole of the stratosphere is unclear due to large internal variability at future global warming of 2° C above preindustrial levels [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the reliability of an indirect method of inferring the atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss from CMIP5 simulations, by comparing the response inferred from the indirect method to that explicitly simulated in sea ice perturbation experiments. We find that the indirect approach works well in winter, but has limited utility in the other seasons. We then apply a modified version of the indirect method to 11 CMIP5 models to reveal the robust and non‐robust aspects of the wintertime atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. Despite limitations of the indirect method, we identify a robust enhancement of the Siberian High, weakening of the Icelandic Low, weakening of the westerly wind on the poleward flank of the eddy‐driven jet, strengthening of the subtropical jet, and weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. The surface air temperature response to projected Arctic sea ice loss over mid‐latitude continents is non‐robust across the models. Plain Language Summary: The continued melt of Arctic sea ice will likely affect weather and climate in places far from the Arctic. To better understand the far‐flung implications of sea ice loss, scientists can perform bespoke climate model experiments in which sea ice is reduced, but all other climate drivers are fixed. In our paper, we test the reliability of an indirect method to infer the atmospheric response to sea ice loss, which makes use of a large set of climate model experiments originally performed for other purposes. We find that the indirect approach works well in winter, but not so well in other seasons. We then apply the indirect method to 11 climate models to reveal the robust and non‐robust aspects of the wintertime atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea ice loss—the largest such comparison to date. We found that the models agreed on quite a few aspects of the response, including warming over the Arctic, regional surface pressure changes over Siberia and Iceland, and a slowing of the mid‐latitude jet stream. On the other hand, the models disagreed on whether surface air temperatures over Europe, North America, and East Asia will warm or cool in response to future Arctic sea ice loss. Key Points: Wintertime atmospheric response to projected Arctic sea‐ice loss can be well‐estimated indirectly from CMIP5 simulationsRobust changes across models including stronger Siberian High, weaker Icelandic Low, slower eddy‐driven jet and faster subtropical jetNon‐robust changes in surface air temperature over mid‐latitude continents and sea level pressure over the North Pacific [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An iterative dynamic initialization method is presented to produce balanced initial conditions for whole atmospheric global modeling. In this method, a global hydrostatic numerical model is iteratively nudged toward ground‐to‐space wind and temperature profiles at specific date and time. Ground‐to‐space atmospheric profiles are obtained by fitting spline curves to reanalyses below the lower mesosphere and empirical model results in the upper atmosphere. An optimal nudging coefficient is determined by examining if reasonable structure of mesospheric gravity wave (GW) momentum forcing and residual mean meridional circulations can be obtained from balanced initial conditions. Estimated mesospheric GW momentum forcing is found to exhibit a distinctive structure with larger (smaller) values in the lower and upper mesosphere (in the midmesosphere), when compared with parameterized climatological forcing. The iterative dynamic initialization allows for dynamical balance among the model's prognostic variables and reduces excitation of spurious GWs and noises at initial time. However, theoretical imbalances, measured by the ellipticity of the nonlinear balance equation, are not completely eliminated in balanced flows, and they are found in narrow tropospheric frontal regions and over localized areas associated with the large‐scale instability in the midlatitude middle atmosphere. These imbalances are discussed in the context of their potential relation to generation of planetary‐scale and inertia GWs around the middle atmospheric and tropospheric jets. Plain Language Summary: This study reports a method of initializing a whole‐atmosphere global model that covers from the ground to the lower thermosphere. Through this initialization, a whole atmospheric state balanced with the model dynamics is effectively generated. Free coefficient required for the initialization is chosen by estimating gravity wave momentum forcing and meridional mass circulations in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. In the generated balanced flow, theoretical imbalances, measured by the ellipticity of the nonlinear balance equation, are found. These imbalances can be related to the spontaneous generation of gravity waves and balanced and unbalanced large‐scale instabilities in the middle atmosphere. The large‐scale instabilities can be attributed to generation of the planetary‐scale and inertia gravity waves in the middle atmosphere. Key Points: Iterative dynamic initialization for whole atmospheric global modeling is presentedGravity wave momentum forcing and mass circulations are estimated to constrain nudging coefficientDeviations from nonlinear balance may occur in association with large‐scale instabilities [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In energetic equilibrium, the atmosphere's net radiative divergence ( [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Quality of a downscaling depends primarily on the quality of the driving global climate model ( GCM). In this study, historical atmospheric conditions simulated by 14 GCMs in CMIP5 are evaluated for downscaling applications centred over the Tibetan Plateau ( TP) with ERA-Interim reanalysis as reference. Another reanalysis NCEP-DOE is also used to estimate the uncertainty associated with the reanalyses. Performances of six frequently used GCM variables, involving atmospheric circulation, air temperature and humidity, are evaluated in terms of biases, spatial correlation coefficient, mean absolute error as well as distinct seasonal features. To detect distributional biases, the two-sample Kolmogorov-Smirnov test ( KS test) is applied to both the original time series and their anomalies on the monthly scale. A spatial ranking scheme is finally applied to objectively quantify overall relative merits of the GCMs over this region. We found that differences between two reanalysis datasets are negligible over this region. Regarding the GCMs' performances, the biases of the simulated variables show remarkable differences among models. Sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height are well simulated by all the GCMs, whereas specific humidity at 600 hPa has a significant dry bias and temperature at 500 hPa has a sizable cold bias. The spatial pattern of the upper-tropospheric circulation is relatively poorly simulated. The KS test suggests that the climatic mean and higher order moments play about an equal role in causing the errors. According to the ranking scores, CCSM4, CNRM-CM5, MPI-ESM-LR, NorESM1-M, MIROC4h, MPI_ESM_MR and CSIRO-MK are relatively superior to other GCMs for this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

North Atlantic storms present one of the major weather risks for North West (NW) Europe. This is indeed the case in summer, but the wintertime North Atlantic storm track does not follow this simple picture; instead, it is projected to extend more strongly eastward over NW Europe resulting in an I enhanced i storm risk in this region. [Extracted from the article]

The article presents a study which determines the factor that drives rainfall anomalies during Benguela Niño events. It states that the mechanisms behind rainfall anomalies during the events are not well understood as to whether the rainfall anomalies are driven by sea surface temperature (SST) forcing in the South Indian Ocean or the tropical southeast Atlantic SST anomalies. Accordingly, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is used to investigate the atmospheric circulation and rainfall over southern Africa to different regional SST patterns during Benguela Niño events. Moreover, the study suggests that southwest Indian Ocean SST forcing may increase or decrease the Southern rainfall anomalies during Benguela events depending on its sign, magnitude and location.