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The article aims to present a conceptual framework for the analysis of ecosystem services (ES) supply in the U.S. It will also discuss some of the data and modeling issues that arise in predicting farmers' participation in ES contracts and the supply of ES resulting from them. To frame the discussion, the researchers outline a model of the supply of ES that illustrates the ways that spatial and system complexity can affect it. This model is used to discuss the data and modeling issues that arise in empirical implementation.

The article reflects on the timeliness of the topic of ecosystem services (ES) in the arena of agricultural policy in the U.S. According to the author, policies and programs founded in ES science and economics can provide genuine alternatives to decades of commodity-based federal farm policy. The evolution of agricultural policy as it transforms to incorporate ES measures and transactions is uncertain. It will be marked by analytic challenges and policy retreats to old ways. ES assessments will enable budget allocation, planning and priority setting on the part of public agencies.