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Much of the research on implications of the HIV epidemic for individual households and broader rural economies in the 1980s and early 1990s predicted progressive declines in agricultural production, with dire consequences for rural livelihoods. Restudies in Tanzania and Uganda show that from 1986 to the present, HIV and AIDS have sometimes thrown households into disarray and poverty, but more often have reduced development. The progressive and systematic decline predicted in earlier work has not come to pass. However, poverty remains, as does endemic HIV disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article investigates whether public investments that led to improvements in road quality and increased access to agricultural extension services led to faster consumption growth and lower rates of poverty in rural Ethiopia. Estimating an Instrumental Variables model using Generalized Methods of Moments and controlling for household fixed effects, we find evidence of positive impacts with meaningful magnitudes. Receiving at least one extension visit reduces headcount poverty by 9.8 percentage points and increases consumption growth by 7.1 percentage points. Access to all-weather roads reduces poverty by 6.9 percentage points and increases consumption growth by 16.3 percentage points. These results are robust to changes in model specification and estimation methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article cites a study that examines the impact of orphanhood on children's school attainment and height in Tanzania. The data set being used will allow estimation of the long-term and persistent impact of orphanhood shocks during childhood on adult health and educational attainment. Height is used as the key long-term health measure, since it has been shown to affect wage-earning capacity as well as participation in the labor force for men and women. Several factors of influence are used to model height and education such as the child characteristics, family's genetic background and the socioeconomic environment in the household at baseline.

A response by Tony Barnett, Stefan Dercon and Janet Seeley to a letter to the editor about their article "The effects of HIV/AIDS on Rural Communities in East Africa: A Twenty Year Perspective," published in an earlier issue is presented.