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In the summer of 1861, the United States embarked on its first widespread use of paper money: the Demand Notes of 1861. Although their convertibility into gold ended at the end of that year, they remained acceptable for tariff payment at a par with gold coin while they were gradually replaced with paper money that did not share this provision, the Greenbacks. We present daily observations of exchange rates between the Notes, Greenbacks, and gold for the extended period during which they simultaneously circulated. These exchange rates substantiate our revisionist notion that the Notes were replaced because the tariff provision prevented them from generating sufficient seigniorage for wartime needs. ( JEL E42, N12, N22) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents the findings of a case assignment for policy analysis students at the Georgia Institute of Technology City Planning Program regarding the effectiveness of imposing additional sales tax on paper diapers. Calculations on environmentalists' claim on the total annual cost of paper diapering; Costs and benefits of various diapering methods for consumers and the society.

The article discusses the various endeavors of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Founded in 1920, NBER sponsors and distributes research aimed at furthering economic knowledge. The Bureau maintains several ongoing programs including those specializing in Asset Pricing, Children's Health & Well-Being, and Corporate Finance, among several others. Researchers can explore topics of common interest under the aegis of an NBER Project. Projects ongoing in 1999 focused on such areas as international capital flows, school choice, and Social Security reform. NBER also publishes working papers, periodicals, and books.

A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose arbitrary specifications of uncertainty that do not appear to be empirically justifiable. Ambiguities in interpreting the Humphrey-Hawkins reports of policy authorities are sketched in section II; a proposal for maximizing the ex ante prospects of policy objectives is illustrated in section III; finally, nonstationary allocations of uncertainty are discussed in sections IV and V. This paper provides a brief survey of ongoing work by members of the Federal Reserve Board staff on the role of uncertainty in policy forecasts. It suggests that policy discussion could be improved by more explicit consideration of the allocation of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article comments on a paper published within the issue, "Capital Formation and the Recent Productivity Slowdown," by Peter Clark. The author also discusses results from his own research in "Accounting for United States Economic Growth, 1929-1969," and applies it to Clark's paper. It is suggested that an abrupt rise in energy prices may have affected growth rates during the mid-1970s. The author also looks at a similar analysis made by John Kendrick, who focuses on the U.S. postwar period of 1948-1966.

The article discusses the concept of globalization in the commodity trade aspects of agriculture in the U.S. Three papers that tackle the subject of agricultural globalization are examined. One study summarizes a large body of work intended to inform directly on the deliberations of the global trade talks in Doha, Qatar. Another research suggests that the world would be better served by greater access to agriculture markets, particularly for rice, sugar and meats. In addition, another study reports empirical estimates of the local and rest-of-world consequences of removing domestic subsidies in the corn sector in the U.S.

The paper by Messrs. Ho and Saunders rationalizes the determination of the Federal funds rate in the context of a micro theoretic model that is relatively rich in institutional detail. For several reasons, I believe that the line of inquiry developed in the paper is of basic significance for the study and modeling of capital markets. In the first place, because it is the closest thing to an instantaneous spot rate that we observe in the actual capital market, the (overnight) funds rate is pivotal in the term structure if expectations matter. Then too, the particular role played by the funds rate in the conduct and interpretation of monetary policy gives it a unique significance in the capital market. It is therefore important that we thoroughly understand the mechanism whereby this rate is determined. Secondly, the funds rate is typically explained in an aggregative framework—i.e., without explicit reference to the actual market in which Federal funds are traded. The funds rate is used variously, for example, to clear the aggregate "market" for bank reserves, or even the market for "money." But this type of analysis does not embody enough institutional detail to be useful for studying the relationship between the funds rate and other short-term rates or for analyzing interesting variations in monetary policy. Finally, those studies which have looked specifically at the market in which Federal funds are traded have been primarily descriptive rather than analytical in nature. Ho and Saunders are clearly aware of these shortcomings in the existing literature, and their paper represents a constructive effort to fill the gaps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on an article about public pressures and values affecting forest management and timber supply in the United States. Effects of the criticism made by preservationists against industrial forest landowners; Discussion on legislative issues; Problems that log export trade faces.

Bankruptcy costs are the deadweight economic costs of firms going bankrupt. They include both ex post bankruptcy costs incurred after a firm's bankruptcy filing, such as transactions costs, and ex ante bankruptcy costs incurred before the filing, such as those resulting from creditors' attempts to reduce their losses if bankruptcy occurs and/or managers' attempts to raise the expected return to equity by increasing the firm's risk. This paper has two purposes. First it proposes a model of bankruptcy costs which focuses on the costs of inefficient decision making before the firm's actual bankruptcy filing. The model implies upper bound expressions for total bankruptcy costs. Second, the new U.S. Bankruptcy Code went into effect late in 1979 and made important changes in bankruptcy reorganization procedures. The paper poses the question of whether the changes made under the new Code tend to raise or lower aggregate U.S. bankruptcy costs. We approach this question by calculating the upper bound expressions suggested by the model, using parameter values from both before and after the new Code took effect. From an economic standpoint, the most important changes instituted under the new Bankruptcy Code had the effect of making it more difficult to reorganize firms in bankruptcy. Previously, it was common for failing firms to file for bankruptcy, but for prior management to continue to operate the firm in much the same form as before. The bankruptcy filing prevented unpaid creditors from suing the firm while a reorganization plan was arranged which cut back most debts. From an economic standpoint, such a procedure was anomalous, since we learn in basic economics that competition in the long-run should cause inefficient firms to go out of business. As long as failing firms are more likely to be inefficient than firms in general, it would seem to be rewarding inefficiency and offsetting the beneficial effects of competition systematically to aid the survival of fai... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of simulation experiments of an econometric model specifically designed to evaluate the short-run impact of these agencies. The model incorporates, in particular, four features that we feel are critical for evaluating the short-run stabilization activities of these agencies: (i) The model is monthly. To our knowledge, all previous econometric studies in this area have used quarterly or annual models. Since the relevant time span is less than a year, the timing patterns observed on a monthly basis are key. (ii) The model distinguishes carefully between the commitment and mortgage purchase activity of the agencies. We presume that the commitment activity of the agencies provides an initial and powerful stimulant to the housing market, whereas their mortgage purchase activity may substantially offset this initial stimulus. Since the time lag between commitment and purchase can be over a year, this distinction may explain why the agencies can stabilize short-run activity, but without any continuing long-run effect. (iii) The structure of the model differentiates between periods of equilibrium and disequilibrium in the mortgage market. Previous studies have observed that the mortgage interest rate may not at times adjust to clear the market, leading to credit rationing. Our model is specified to include credit rationing effects in both the mortgage and housing markets. This is important because agency interventions may be much more powerful when undertaken during disequilibrium episodes. (iv) The model allows for capital market feedback effects whereby debt issues of the agencies (to finance mortgage purchases) impact capital market interest rates. As a result, rising capital market interest rates will offset a portion of the initial positive impact of agency commitments. The agenda for the paper is as follows. Section II reviews the theoretical foundations of the model, with special emphasis on the features just listed. Section ... [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper models the domino effect and defines a measurement for the necessity of banking supervision. The effect of several factors, such as the desired stability of the banking system, its size, the amount of negative externalities that are considered by banks, and supervisory costs, on the necessity of supervision are studied. For instance, it was found that, under certain circumstances, supervision becomes less essential if the number of banks increases. The paper has also emphasized that objective difficulties in the supervision of banks, by simply imposing restrictions on their activities, are intrinsic to the operation of the banks themselves. The paper provides some insight into the current debate as to the necessity or redundancy of supervision and regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-tariff measures (NTMs) play an increasing role in the international trade of agri-food products. Although well-recognized, this role has not been extensively analyzed at a disaggregated level. This paper focuses on NTMs enacted by member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development for 777 products. Using a cluster-analysis, the paper identifies the correlation between the occurrence of NTMs, their trade coverage, and the incidence of trade frictions for these products. The paper relates the statistical findings to the political economy literature on protection to explain cross-product differences in the occurrence of NTMs and trade frictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We attempt to translate Neo-Austrian ideas about the workings of financial markets, as originally advanced by F. A. Hayek, into the standard probabilistic language of modern finance. We focus on an apparent paradox, namely the insistence of Neo-Austrians on order (i.e., stationarity) together with ever-reemerging inefficiencies. The paper's findings have implications beyond Neo-Austrian theory: They demonstrate how easy it is to reject market efficiency, but how much more difficult it is to discern the nature of the inefficiency. We illustrate our findings with price data from the U.S. Treasury bill market over the period 1962 to 1999. There is ample evidence that the price of a three-month Treasury bill is not a random walk, yet the sign of the average price change is erratic, so that inference about the nature of the inefficiency is unreliable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Chinese Economic Association in North America (CEANA), consisting of Chinese American and Chinese economists and other economists interested in the economy of China, held a joint session with the American Economic Association and allied scholarly groups on December 29, 1987 in Chicago. In preparation for the session and other sessions of the CEANA in New York, the new group has issued a call for papers.

The article presents a critique of a study by Edward E. Edwards called "Changing Character of the Real Estate Mortgage Markets" that appears in this issue. Edwards, in his article, implies that mortgage funds are in short supply, which would impact liquidity and capital adequacy that would force savings and loan associations to leave the mortgage market. The author feels that Edwards does not prove that there is such a shortage and does not consider factors like mortgage rates or terms. The author also addresses Edwards' comments about capital requirements and says that his statement that the U.S. Federal Home Loan Bank Board restricting growth rates in capital shortage areas is erroneous.

This paper studies the information value of immediate disclosure of the FOMC policy directive. The value of disclosure is measured by its ability to reduce investors' expected uncertainty about futures interest rates where uncertainty is defined as the conditional variance of forecast errors. Analytical relationships between new information and the conditional variance of forecast errors are developed and the relation of the "uncertainty-reducing" value of information to its social value, as defined in recent literature, is indicated. In the empirical work, forward interest rates are treated as reflecting market expectations conditioned on existing information. The empirical tests indicate that information in the undisclosed, prevailing policy directives (1974-79) were able to make only a very marginal improvement in the predictive accuracy of forecasts relying only on the forward rates. Thus, the hypothesis that immediate disclosure has a significant information value to market participants is not supported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper shows that bank runs can be modeled as an equilibrium phenomenon. We demonstrate that some aspects of the intuitive "story" that bank runs start with fears of insolvency of banks can be rigorously modeled. If individuals observe long "lines" at the bank, they correctly infer that there is a possibility that the bank is about to fail and precipitate a bank run. However, bank runs occur even when no one has any adverse information. Extra market constraints such as suspension of convertibility can prevent bank runs and result in superior allocations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper highlights the significance of escalating commitment to strategy formulation, briefly examines behavioral explanations of escalating commitment to a losing course of action, and finally proposes an economic theory of the escalating commitment phenomenon. An example of escalating commitment to an outdated technology is presented. It is shown mathematically that there are economic justifications for escalating commitment to a failing strategy. Strategic implications for the first move advantage and for the U.S. steel, auto and semiconductor industries are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Karl Pearson, the founder of mathematical statistics, was the leading statistical researcher from the 1890s up to about 1920. His interests were wide-ranging and so his impact on statistics in the United States was also wide-ranging. Many American researchers came to University College London to study with him. Others studied his work from afar. In the United States, Pearsonian statistics first penetrated the academic landscape in biology. This was soon followed by the fields of economics and psychology. It was not until relatively late in Pearson's career that several American mathematicians took up statistics as a serious research topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the important issues related to ethanol industry in the U.S. These issues includes the implications of alternative incentive schemes for renewable fuels production, impact on the country's agriculture of producing 10-60 gallons of ethanol in 2010-2030 respectively and a comparison between two organizational methods for production and energy crop harvesting. The five main objectives of the incentive scheme includes the consumer cost of fuel, food prices, safety net improvement for the renewable fuel industry , national security and emission control management. The primary purpose of the issues are to examine the significance of bioenergy technology for the improvement of the agriculture economics in the country.

An introduction to various articles within the issue which focus on incentives for physicians is presented.

The article presents the author's insights regarding the papers related to the volatility in agricultural business which utilizes the Bayesian method. The author states that the three papers contributed to the application of Bayesian method as econometric model and to solve economic problems. He mentions that in the paper "Estimating the Risk-Return Tradeoff in Agribusiness Stocks" the authors introduce various models to fully understand the volatility agricultural manufacturing in the U.S.

Policy Points: Historically, reforms that have increased the duration of job‐protected paid parental leave have improved women's economic outcomes. By targeting the period around childbirth, access to paid parental leave also appears to reduce rates of infant mortality, with breastfeeding representing one potential mechanism. The provision of more generous paid leave entitlements in countries that offer unpaid or short durations of paid leave could help families strike a balance between the competing demands of earning income and attending to personal and family well‐being. Context: Policies legislating paid leave from work for new parents, and to attend to individual and family illness, are common across Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) countries. However, there exists no comprehensive review of their potential impacts on economic, social, and health outcomes. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of the peer‐reviewed literature on paid leave and socioeconomic and health outcomes. We reviewed 5,538 abstracts and selected 85 published papers on the impact of parental leave policies, 22 papers on the impact of medical leave policies, and 2 papers that evaluated both types of policies. We synthesized the main findings through a narrative description; a meta‐analysis was precluded by heterogeneity in policy attributes, policy changes, outcomes, and study designs. Findings: We were able to draw several conclusions about the impact of parental leave policies. First, extensions in the duration of paid parental leave to between 6 and 12 months were accompanied by attendant increases in leave‐taking and longer durations of leave. Second, there was little evidence that extending the duration of paid leave had negative employment or economic consequences. Third, unpaid leave does not appear to confer the same benefits as paid leave. Fourth, from a population health perspective, increases in paid parental leave were consistently associated with better infant and child health, particularly in terms of lower mortality rates. Fifth, paid paternal leave policies of adequate length and generosity have induced fathers to take additional time off from work following the birth of a child. How medical leave policies for personal or family illness influence health has not been widely studied. Conclusions: There is substantial quasi‐experimental evidence to support expansions in the duration of job‐protected paid parental leave as an instrument for supporting women's labor force participation, safeguarding women's incomes and earnings, and improving child survival. This has implications, in particular, for countries that offer shorter durations of job‐protected paid leave or lack a national paid leave entitlement altogether. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a discussion of a paper that examined why depository institutions and their nontraditional competitors are expanding into new geographic markets and/or product lines. The author notes that the article provides an economic rather than political explanation for this changing structure of the U.S. financial system. The author points to competition between overlapping federal and state regulators as facilitating this change allowing banks to play authorities against each other.

Cost-effectiveness is an important goal for emergency care delivery. The many diagnostic, treatment, and disposition decisions made in the emergency department ( ED) have a significant impact upon healthcare resource utilization. Cost-effectiveness analysis ( CEA) is an analytic tool to optimize these resource allocation decisions through the systematic comparison of costs and effects of alternative healthcare decisions. Yet few emergency medicine leaders and policymakers have any formal training in CEA methodology. This paper provides an introduction to the interpretation and use of CEA with a focus on application to emergency medicine problems and settings. It applies a previously published CEA to the hypothetical case of a patient presenting to the ED with chest pain who requires risk stratification. This paper uses a widely cited checklist to appraise the CEA. This checklist serves as a vehicle for presenting basic CEA terminology and concepts. General topics of focus include measurement of costs and outcomes, incremental analysis, and sensitivity analysis. Integrated throughout the paper are recommendations for good CEA practice with emphasis on the guidelines published by the U.S. Panel on Cost-Effectiveness in Health and Medicine. Unique challenges for emergency medicine CEAs discussed include the projection of long-term outcomes from emergent interventions, costing ED services, and applying study results to diverse patient populations across various ED settings. The discussion also includes an overview of the limitations inherent in applying CEA results to clinical practice to include the lack of incorporation of noncost considerations in CEA (e.g., ethics). After reading this article, emergency medicine leaders and researchers will have an enhanced understanding of the basics of CEA critical appraisal and application. The paper concludes with an overview of economic evaluation resources for readers interested in conducting ED-based economic evaluation studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents a discussion over the paper "How Big Is the Tax Advantage to Debt," which examined whether bankruptcy-cost models which take account of personal as well as corporate taxes can explain the observed range of debt ratios in the U.S. economy. The author believes that the results of the study, along with the accompanying model, are limited by their generality and provides several reasons to explain why.

There have been a number of studies analyzing the impact of unions on labor's share of income. Most have relied on either time series or cross-section data. The purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of unions on labor's share of income in the U.S. This study adds to the understanding of this topic by developing an analytical model of imperfect competition and estimating the model using panel data for the manufacturing sector. This study finds that unions have a positive impact on labor's share of income. Specifically, this paper finds that labor's share declined 17.9 percent between 1997 and 2006 whereas, if unionization density had remained at its 1997 level, labor's share would have declined only 13.9 percent. Thus, the decline in unionization explains about 29 percent of the decline in labor's share of income. This paper is important for three reasons. First, this paper sheds light on whether social and institutional forces play an important role in determining the distribution of income between labor and capital. Second, it helps to explain recent increases in wage inequality. Third, it has implications for understanding the potential impact of legislation, such as the Employee Free Choice Act, that would make it easier for workers in the U.S. to unionize. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the link between the optimal level of nonfinancial firms’ short-term leverage and macroeconomic and idiosyncratic sources of uncertainty. We develop a structural model of a firm’s value maximization problem that predicts a negative relationship between uncertainty and optimal levels of borrowing. This proposition is tested using a panel of nonfinancial U.S. firms drawn from the COMPUSTAT quarterly database covering the period 1993–2003. The estimates confirm that as either form of uncertainty increases, firms decrease their levels of short-term leverage. This effect is stronger for macroeconomic uncertainty than for idiosyncratic uncertainty. ( JEL C23, D8, D92, G32) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: There exists enormous variation in estimates of the lifetime cost of adolescent obesity by race. To justify policy measures to reduce obesity rates nationally in this demographic, the costs of obesity in late adolescence must first be discerned. Although several researchers have sought to quantify obesity's true cost, none has accounted for race-specific age-related weight gain, a vital component in producing an accurate estimate.Methods: This paper employs a Markov model of BMI category state changes separately for black and white males and females from age 18 to 75 applied to updated estimates of obesity's costs and effect on mortality to quantify the median lifetime cost of obesity at age 18.Results: This study found lower lifetime costs than previously, largely because of the dramatic gain in weight among normal-weight individuals, particularly black males, that occurs in early adulthood.Conclusions: A substantial portion of obesity's prevalence, and therefore cost, for black males and females comes from age-related weight gain in early adulthood. This speaks to the persistent threat of obesity beyond adolescence for this demographic, and further research should focus on whether policy can modify the behaviors and environment through which and in which this sharp increase in weight occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using individual-level data from a large number of countries, this paper examines how self-reported subjective well-being depends on own income and reference income, where reference income is defined as the income of one's professional peers. It uncovers a divide between ‘old’—low-mobility—European countries on the one hand, and ‘new’ European post-Transition countries and the United States on the other. The relative importance of comparisons (‘jealousy’) versus information (‘ambition’) seems to depend on the degree of mobility and uncertainty in the considered countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents two abstracts of studies on agricultural economics. `Spreadsheet Based Calculations of Comparative Feed Values: A Decision Making Tool for Kentucky Livestock and Dairy Producers,' by Brian K. Coffey; `The Impact of Information on Willingness to Pay for Food Certified as Non-Genetically Modified,' by Darlene Dessureault.

The article presents a commentary on bioenergy in a global environment. The author mentions some papers focusing on biofuels and the effects of the industry on economic stability, global food prices, and climate change. The author comments on the papers and renders perspectives on the U.S. bioenergy sector and its policies.

Policy makers (both public and private) are seeking ways to improve the value delivered within our health care system, that is, using fewer resources to provide the same benefit to patients, or using equivalent resources to provide more benefit. One strategy is to alter the predominant fee-for-service (FFS) economic incentives in the current system. To inform such policy changes, this paper identifies areas in which little is known about the effects of specific incentives (FFS, salary, etc.) on the two components of value: resource use and quality. Specific suggestions are offered regarding research that would be informative for policy makers, focusing on fundamental "building block" studies rather than overall evaluations of complex interventions, such as accountable care organizations. This research would better identify critical aspects of the FFS model and salary-based payments that are particularly problematic, as well as situations in which FFS or salary may be less problematic. The research would also explore when alternatives, such as episode-based payment might be feasible, or simply be hypothetical solutions. The availability of electronic health record-based data in various delivery systems would allow many of these studies to be accomplished in 3-5 years with budgets manageable by public and private funding sources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction to various papers within the issue which provide an overview of the current state of the research literature around improving the value of the health care system in the U.S. such as payment incentives and the theory and practice of fee-for-service is presented.

The first baby has successfully been born by uterus transplantation (UTx) in the United States and the procedure is swiftly becoming a viable clinical option for patients with uterine factor infertility (UFI). This raises a practical ethical question: should health insurers finance UTx and what issues should they consider in coming to this decision? The article lays forth some of the factors that shape the decision over whether to finance UTx in the United States, including what procedures must be covered, whether UTx is more like organ transplantation or infertility treatment (which are treated differently in the United States), and the benefits and alternatives of the procedure. Then, the article explores arguments around why UTx should be financed, or at least considered along with other important medical needs. The paper argues that UTx ought to be considered along with other competing claims for healthcare services. In countries that generously cover other infertility services, it may logically follow that medical services that enable gestation should be insured when the healthcare system covers services to conceive. In the United States, however, many groups have long suffered inadequate access to medical care, in the context of infertility and more broadly. U.S. healthcare may need to be made more widely equitable, before covering UTx is seen as financially or politically possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of the money supply and inflation rate announcements on interest rates. Survey data on expectations of the money supply and consumer and producer price indexes are used to distinguish anticipated and unanticipated components of the announcements. This distinction is used to test for the efficiency of the financial market response to the announcements of new information. The results indicate that the unanticipated components of the announced changes in the Producers Price Index and in the money supply have an immediate positive effect on short-term interest rates. The Consumer Price Index announcement has no apparent effect. There is no evidence of a delayed announcement effect. However, there is some indication of a liquidity effect of the money supply change on interest rates. This takes place when reserves are changing and several weeks prior to the information announcement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given the importance of ex ante real interest rates to economic decision making, it is no surprise that much empirical research focuses on them.1 Several recent studies find that the ex ante real returns for short-term U.S. Treasury securities are not constant and are negatively correlated both with inflation and with nominal interest rates. This paper examines the extent to which these findings hold for assets of longer maturity, are robust with respect to the choice of price index, and are stable over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the investment characteristics of firms electing to enter bankruptcy, between 1973 and 1982. Comparisons are made before and after the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1978. Our results indicate that the 1978 Act had no significant impact on bankruptcy decisions or resolutions for actively traded firms. Trading in bankrupt firms' securities is becoming more common, but no abnormal returns appear to be available. Systematic risk does not change significantly with the filing of bankruptcy, but there is a significant increase in return variance. The financial markets also react to various announcements of stages in the reorganization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While it has been known for some time that, under uncertainty, the original version of the Fisher hypothesis is not precisely correct, empirical researchers have largely ignored this fact. Such an omission has possibly resulted in erroneous conclusions concerning other hypotheses; most notably the impact of prices on the real economy. This paper clarifies some of the previous interpretations of the existing empirical literature and provides a theoretical version of the relation between prices and interest rates. Empirical tests based on both the Livingston survey data and data from time-series forecasting models provide support for the Fisher effect and the hypothesis that only covariance risk is priced in the Treasury bill market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, ex ante efficient portfolio selection strategies are developed to realize potential gains from international diversification under flexible exchange rates. It is shown that exchange rate uncertainty is a largely nondiversifiable factor adversely affecting the performance of international portfolios. Therefore, it is essential to effectively control exchange rate volatility. For that purpose, two methods of exchange risk reduction are simultaneously employed: multicurrency diversification and hedging via forward exchange contracts. The empirical findings show that international portfolio selection strategies designed to control both estimation and exchange risks almost consistently outperform the U.S. domestic portfolio in out-of-sample periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper draws on an extensive array of theoretical and empirical studies covering a variety of industries in the U.S. and elsewhere in order: (a) to review common shortcomings found in evaluating technological innovations both before and after adoption, as well as in generating proposals for new innovations; and (b) to suggest means of improving each of these efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The total volume of commercial bank deposits in the country is determined largely by the Federal Reserve System in accordance with the needs and objectives of the economy. The distribution of these deposits among individual banks and areas, however, is determined by market forces. The purpose of this study is to identify and measure the relevant structural and economic variables associated with deposit growth by state. The analysis is organized within the framework of the demand for money. The emphasis of the study is empirical; the results should, in part, replicate the findings of earlier demand for money studies. The first part of the paper identifies briefly the factors typically associated with differential deposit growth. The second part specifies these variables in a model, estimates the parameters and describes the findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To examine: (1) what elements of patient-centered medical homes (PCMHs) are typically provided to low-income populations, (2) whether PCMHs improve health behaviors, experiences, and outcomes for low-income groups.Data Sources/study Setting: Existing literature on PCMH utilization among health care organizations serving low-income populations.Study Design: Systematic review and meta-analysis.Data Collection/extraction Methods: We obtained papers through existing systematic and literature reviews and via PubMed, Web of Science, and the TRIP databases, which examined PCMHs serving low-income populations. A total of 434 studies were reviewed. Thirty-three articles met eligibility criteria.Principal Findings: Patient-centered medical home interventions usually were composed of five of the six recommended components. Overall positive effect of PCMH interventions was d = 0.247 (range -0.965 to 1.42). PCMH patients had better clinical outcomes (d = 0.395), higher adherence (0.392), and lower utilization of emergency rooms (d = -0.248), but there were apparent limitations in study quality.Conclusions: Evidence shows that the PCMH model can increase health outcomes among low-income populations. However, limitations to quality include no assessment for confounding variables. Implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT In this paper, we analyse a new Phillips curve (NPC) model and demonstrate that (i) frictional growth, i.e., the interplay of wage staggering and money growth, generates a non-vertical NPC in the long run and (ii) the Phillips curve (PC) shifts with productivity growth. On this basis we estimate a dynamic system of macro-labour equations to evaluate the slope of the PC and explain the evolution of inflation and unemployment in the USA from 1970 to 2006. Because our empirical methodology relies heavily on impulse response functions, it represents a synthesis of the traditional structural modelling and (structural) vector autoregressions. We find that the PC is downward-sloping with a slope of −3.58 in the long run. Furthermore, during the stagflating 1970s, the productivity slowdown contributed substantially to the increases in both unemployment and inflation, whereas the monetary expansion was quite ineffective and led mainly to higher inflation. Finally, the monetary expansion and productivity speedup of the roaring 1990s were both responsible for the significant lowering of the unemployment rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the price response of wireless carriers to the introduction of number portability in the U. S. I find that wireless prices decreased in response to number portability, but not uniformly across plans. Average prices for the plans with the fewest minutes decreased by only $0.19/month (0.97%), but average prices for medium and high-volume plans decreased by $3.64/month (4.84%) and $10.29/month (6.81%), respectively. The results suggest that higher-volume users in the wireless market benefited more from the policy-induced reduction in switching costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses an unprecedentedly rich data set to estimate the cost of agricultural cargo preference (ACP) restrictions on United States food aid programs, and to document some of the programs' competitiveness and national security impacts. ACP cost U.S. taxpayers $140 million in 2006, 46% more than competitive freight costs would have. This roughly equals the cost of non-emergency food aid to Africa. Furthermore, 70% of ACP vessels did not satisfy the criteria that deem them militarily useful, a large share were ultimately owned by foreign corporations, and no ACP vessel crew has been mobilized for national service. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an arbitrage-free model to extract the information that the term structure of forward premia contains for forecasting future spot exchange rates. Using monthly data on four U.S. dollar bilateral exchange rates, we find evidence that this model provides statistically better forecasts than those produced by a random walk for the British pound and Canadian dollar exchange rates. Negative results for the German mark/Euro and Swiss franc are explained by a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the term structure model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some nonparticipants support lotteries because they expect the lottery will shift a portion of their tax burden to participants. The principal-agent model suggests that lotteries will result in an above normal increase in state expenditures. This paper finds that 77 percent of net lottery proceeds are utilized for above normal spending increases, suggesting that tax benefits to nonparticipants are greatly diminished. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a discussion of measures and approaches to sectoral interdependence in the United States. Construction of descriptive statistics with specific application to sectoral information; Identification of the objectives of descriptive methods; Research agenda encompassing computable general equilibrium (CGE) analytic approaches.

Background There is a lack of information on annual healthcare expenditures both per person and for the U.S. population associated with trauma, as identified by International Classification of Disease Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification ( ICD-9- CM) codes. Methods This paper employed a two-part model to estimate the unadjusted and adjusted annual per individual expenditures and population burden of trauma exposure for the U.S. population, using a nationally representative survey of medical care expenditures. In addition, we estimated a logit model to examine the demographic and comorbidity factors associated with the likelihood of experiencing trauma. Results Approximately 18.2% of U.S. adults were found to have trauma exposure during the survey year of 2011. The most frequent trauma ICD-9- CM code was injury not elsewhere classified/not otherwise specified. Adjusted likelihood of trauma was higher among individuals under the age of 65; males; non-Hispanic whites; nonmarried or never married; and individuals living with comorbidities of stroke, joint pain, arthritis, and asthma. The most expensive of the top 10 ICD-9- CM trauma codes was dislocation of the knee. Significant differences in expenditure categories were found for office-based, outpatient, emergency department ( ED), dental, and other medical care. After adjustment for comorbidities and demographics, the adjusted per-person burden of trauma was estimated to be $1,689 (95% confidence interval [ CI] = $1,006 to $2,372), with an incremental burden on the U.S. population of $60.8 billion per year. Conclusions Trauma results in a significant healthcare expenditure burden, both per person and on the U.S. population. Clinicians should be aware that individuals in the U.S. population with certain comorbidities such as stroke, joint pain, arthritis, and asthma are more likely to have trauma and that differences exist in expenditures for office-based, outpatient, dental, and the ED. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]