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A stochastic framework for coordination of macroeconomic policies is introduced in this paper. It is suggested that: (i) measures of policy accountability should allow for the climate of uncertainty that surrounds policy decisions, and (ii) most models of aggregate economic activity impose arbitrary specifications of uncertainty that do not appear to be empirically justifiable. Ambiguities in interpreting the Humphrey-Hawkins reports of policy authorities are sketched in section II; a proposal for maximizing the ex ante prospects of policy objectives is illustrated in section III; finally, nonstationary allocations of uncertainty are discussed in sections IV and V. This paper provides a brief survey of ongoing work by members of the Federal Reserve Board staff on the role of uncertainty in policy forecasts. It suggests that policy discussion could be improved by more explicit consideration of the allocation of uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Increased turnover among legislators can make them short-sighted, affecting fiscal policy and economic growth. We exploit the exogenous variation in legislative turnover induced by term limit laws and by redistricting in the 50 U.S. states, finding that increased turnover increases capital spending by state governments, which may be designed to constrain future governments. The changes may cause long-run distortions in the economy, reducing long-term economic growth. ( JEL H72, H73, H76) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article aims to present a conceptual framework for the analysis of ecosystem services (ES) supply in the U.S. It will also discuss some of the data and modeling issues that arise in predicting farmers' participation in ES contracts and the supply of ES resulting from them. To frame the discussion, the researchers outline a model of the supply of ES that illustrates the ways that spatial and system complexity can affect it. This model is used to discuss the data and modeling issues that arise in empirical implementation.

The article reflects on the timeliness of the topic of ecosystem services (ES) in the arena of agricultural policy in the U.S. According to the author, policies and programs founded in ES science and economics can provide genuine alternatives to decades of commodity-based federal farm policy. The evolution of agricultural policy as it transforms to incorporate ES measures and transactions is uncertain. It will be marked by analytic challenges and policy retreats to old ways. ES assessments will enable budget allocation, planning and priority setting on the part of public agencies.