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ABSTRACT This paper presents a model to predict French gross domestic product (GDP) quarterly growth rate. The model is designed to be used on a monthly basis by integrating monthly economic information through bridge models, for both supply and demand sides, allowing thus economic interpretations. For each GDP component, bridge equations are specified by using a general-to-specific approach implemented in an automated way by Hoover and Perez and improved by Krolzig and Hendry. This approach allows to select explanatory variables among a large data set of hard and soft data. A rolling forecast study is carried out to assess the forecasting performance in the prediction of aggregated GDP, by taking publication lags into account in order to run pseudo real-time forecasts. It turns out that the model outperforms benchmark models. The results show that changing the set of equations over the quarter is superior to keeping the same equations over time. In addition, GDP growth seems to be more precisely predicted from a supply-side approach rather than a demand-side approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examines the ability of financial variables to predict future economic growth above and beyond past economic activity in a small open economy in the euro area. We aim to clarify potential differences in forecasting economic activity during different economic circumstances. Our results from Finland suggest that the proper choice of forecasting variables is related to general economic conditions. During steady economic growth, the preferred choice for a financial indicator is the short-term interest rate combined with past values of output growth. However, during economic turbulence, the traditional term spread and stock returns are more important in forecasting GDP growth. The time-varying predictive content of the financial variables may be utilized by applying regime-switching nonlinear forecasting models. We propose a novel application using the negative term spread and observed recession as signals to switch between regimes. This procedure yields a significant improvement in forecasting performance at the one-year forecast horizon. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper develops a simple theory governing the relationship between useful energy consumption and national output that explains why the adjusted elasticities found by two economists turned out to be greater than one. The theory is quantified by reference to a wide range of countries covering the whole spectrum of economic development and is tested against the actual experience over 20 to 25 years of individual countries. Conformity to the theory was very close and the efficiency-in-use coefficients computed by economists were found to hold good for periods of 20 to 25 years. Briefly, the hypothesis states that as a country moves through the various stages of its economic development from primitive subsistence agriculture to the ultimate state of fully energy-dependent production, its useful energy elasticity steadily falls from a high value tending asymptotically to one. By itself this proposition is of little use to energy forecasters, because it simply substitutes the requirement to predict energy intensiveness of output for the requirement to predict energy consumption. If we can satisfy ourselves that real GDP per capita is a good measure of energy intensiveness, however, then the relationship derived above can be used as the basis for a mathematical model linking useful energy consumption per capita with GDP per capita.

The article discusses trends, updates, and outlook for the Australian economy. Topics explored include the gross domestic product (GDP), consumption, and unemployment rates recorded from 2017 to 2018, international economic developments in the U.S., Europe, and China which could impact Australia, and the contribution of non-mining business investments to Australian economic growth.

The article presents economic outlook for London, England as of May 2007. Real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to increase by a further 3.6 percent this year on top of an estimated 4.4 percent in 2006. Increasing global demand for financial services and London's position as the most global of world cities reinforce a forecast of continuing strong economic growth for the city. Tables are presented that show detailed forecasts for employment sector by sector.

We reconsider the out-of-sample forecasting ability of a large number of financial variables with respect to real output growth over the 1985:1-1999:4 period We show that models including financial variables display almost no forecasting ability relative to an autoregressive benchmark model over this period according to a mean squared forecast error metric. However, tests based on forecast encompassing indicate that many financial variables do, in fact, contain information that is useful for forecasting real output growth over the 1985:1-1999:4 out-of-sample period. Our results suggest that the extant literature exaggerates the demise of the forecasting power of financial variables with respect to real activity since the mid-1980s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers an outlook for the world economy. It is expected that the impact on global growth would be modest, given the limited decline in equity markets. The U.S. housing sector has worsened and set to remain a drag on the overall growth. Based on data on employment and consumption, resilience is seen in the wake of the crisis. The cost of borrowing for firms and consumers have been driven by the repricing of risk and the liquidity squeeze in money markets. Meanwhile, gross domestic product growth in the Eurozone was disappointing at 0.3%.

The article offers an outlook for the world economy. It is expected that the impact on global growth would be modest, given the limited decline in equity markets. The U.S. housing sector has worsened and set to remain a drag on the overall growth. Based on data on employment and consumption, resilience is seen in the wake of the crisis. The cost of borrowing for firms and consumers have been driven by the repricing of risk and the liquidity squeeze in money markets. Meanwhile, gross domestic product growth in the Eurozone was disappointing at 0.3%.