Although it has been emphasized for years, there remains insufficient knowledge on how to decompose the driving forces of carbon emissions that fluctuate with time, especially when considering the major natural or socio‐economic events. To bridge the knowledge gap, we use the structural decomposition analysis method and select Japan for a case study. The results show that such events were followed by temporary emission increases due to economic recovery, but the general decreasing trend of carbon emissions has been unchanged in a long run. In the case of Japan, during the financial crisis period (2005–2011), emissions increased due to production structure (136.2 Mt‐CO2) and consumption structure (61.8 Mt‐CO2). However, the intensity change and per capita consumption effect were the main driving forces that offset this increasing trend, which reduced by 209.7 Mt‐CO2 in total. After the 2011 earthquake, a significant gain in upgraded production structure led to a 78.2 Mt‐CO2 reduction until 2015, partially offset the 126.4 Mt‐CO2 increase caused by per capita consumption and export volume. In conclusion, although post‐event economic recovery has led to an increasing trend of carbon emissions, continuously optimized emission intensity and production structure are the major driving forces for repressing carbon emission rebound brought by unexpected events. Plain Language Summary: When major natural or socio‐economic events occur, energy production and the economy are often affected, impeding the process of net zero emissions. This paper presents a case study on Japan using the structural decomposition analysis method to decompose the driving forces behind carbon emissions. Two major events (the global financial crisis of 2008–2009 and the Great East Japan Earthquake) that are responsible for the fluctuating emission trends in a time series are discussed. Although Japan's overall carbon emission trend has been decreasing since 2005, temporary emission increases due to economic recovery can be observed after these events. Their impact was incorporated into the discussion by dividing the research period into separate time spans. By quantifying the sectoral carbon emission data, we obtain direct and indirect carbon emissions by fuel type among 13 industrial sectors. Results show that "manufacturing" and "electric power, gas, and water supply" contribute the most to direct emissions among all sectors, while the indirect emission is mostly driven by "manufacturing" and "services" sector. Key Points: Sectoral carbon emission by fuel types in Japan is quantified from 2005 to 2015Economic recovery causes temporary CO2 emission rise after financial crisis and earthquakeThe ripple effects of these driving forces from 2005 to 2015 were analyzed [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]