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This paper aims to update our understanding of the carbon cycle in the Himalayas, the most intense collisional orogeny globally, by providing new insight into its impact on Cenozoic climate cooling through the use of isotopic variations in both organic and inorganic carbon and an isotopic mass balance model. Our results from 20 selected hot springs show that the relative contributions of dissolved carbon from the mantle, metamorphic decarbonization, aqueous dissolution, and soil organic matter are approximately 2%, 82%, 6%, and 10%, respectively. Approximately 87% ± 5% of CO2 generated in the deep crust precipitates as calcite, while approximately 5.5% ± 1% of this carbon is converted to biomass through microbial chemosynthesis at depths less than 2 km. Our random forests approach yielded a metamorphic carbon flux from the entire Himalayan orogenic belt of approximately 2.7 ∼ 4.5 × 1012 mol/yr. The minor CO2 released into the atmosphere (2.5 ∼ 4.2 × 1011 mol/yr) is comparable to the carbon consumption driven by Himalayan weathering. This paper provides new insights into deep carbon cycling, notably that approximately 93% of deeply sourced carbon is trapped in the shallow crust, rendering orogenic processes carbon neutral and possibly acting as one of the major triggers of long‐term climate cooling in the Cenozoic. Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale deep metamorphic decarbonization and CO2 release into the atmosphere during continental collision orogenesis worldwide have had significant impacts on Cenozoic global climate change. However, the carbon sources and sinks and the mechanisms underlying their impacts on climate change are not fully understood. This paper reports the chemistry of aqueous solutions, carbon isotopic compositions of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), and helium and carbon isotopic compositions of free gases from hot springs in southern Tibet. The carbon isotope fractionation model between gas and aqueous solutions revealed that the carbon released from depth underwent six different stages. Based on the random forests machine learning algorithm, we estimated the metamorphic carbon flux across the Himalayan orogenic belt. Furthermore, only a small fraction (7%) of deep carbon is eventually released into the atmosphere, and this volume is the same magnitude as the amount of carbon absorbed by silicate weathering on the Tibetan Plateau. This paper emphasizes that the carbon sequestration process in the upper crust may have resulted in nearly carbon‐neutral geological bodies in the Himalayan orogenic belt, thus playing a critical role in Cenozoic climate cooling. Key Points: Approximately 87% of deeply sourced carbon precipitates as calcite, while approximately 5.5% is sequestered as biomass in the shallow crustThe carbon flux across the Himalayan orogenic belt was estimated by the random forests approachCrustal thickening has attenuated long‐term deep carbon emissions from the Himalayas [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Research on population genetic patterns and potential distribution dynamics can provide insights into the development of pest management strategies. Herein, we integrated population genetic analyses with the climatic niche approach to investigate spatial population genetic variations and potential geographical distribution (PGD) of the herbivorous pest Phytomyza horticola. We also analysed its population response patterns to both late Pleistocene climatic events and future climate change. Location: China. Methods: We analysed the patterns of genetic diversity distribution in 29 populations from 19 regions across China using three mitochondrial (COI, COII and Cytb) genes as markers. We estimated demographic histories using neutrality tests, mismatch distributions and Bayesian skyline plots. Changes in PGD were assessed using an ecological niche model. Results: High genetic diversity was found in most populations, and the northern population exhibited higher haplotype diversity. The population genetic structure included the Tibet lineage and a large lineage comprising the remaining populations. Demographic analyses indicated that rapid population expansion occurred during the cold Last Glacial Maximum. In addition, our projections suggested that P. horticola currently has a vast PGD in China, for which the human influence index was the strongest variable. Large areas of cold northern regions were highly suitable for its survival. Under future global warming, highly suitable habitats will shift towards the higher latitudes. Main conclusions: P. horticola is widely distributed across varied environments, which may be attributed to its high degree of genetic variation. Human activities likely facilitated the current PGD and the frequent gene flow that homogenized differentiation among most populations. In addition, P. horticola exhibits strong adaptability to cold climates and environments from the past to the future. Considering future climatic changes, prevention and control should focus on high‐latitude regions, and vigilance regarding human‐mediated pest dispersals and outbreaks should be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding future dry and wet changes under global climate change is of great regional significance in China. Based on six Global Climate Models (GCM) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), we project the changes of dry‐wet climate regions in China in the 21st century under the three SSP‐RCP (shared socioeconomic pathway‐representative concentration pathway) scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5), and further identify the key climatic factors that lead to the transition of dry‐wet climate regions. The results show the area of humid and subhumid regions in China will show an upward trend in the future, while the area of semiarid and arid regions will show a downward trend. Especially under the SSP5‐8.5 scenario, the area of the subhumid region has the largest increase trend (0.042% per year), and the area of the arid region has the largest decline trend (−0.048% per year). The three main transfer directions of dry‐wet climate regions are from arid to semiarid regions, from semiarid to subhumid regions, and from subhumid to humid regions in the future. Due to the future extensive wetting trend in the north, the future dry‐wet climate regions will shift to wetter types in Tibet, North China, the Qinling‐Huaihe regions and the northeast. In addition, the key climatic factors for the transition of dry‐wet climate regions are mainly precipitation, maximum temperature and solar radiation. The increase of precipitation plays a dominant role for areas projected to change to wetter types, and the increase of potential evapotranspiration (PET) plays a dominant role for areas projected to change to drier types. The PET changes in changed areas of dry‐wet climate regions are mainly dominated by maximum temperature and solar radiation. Our research has important implications for future water resource management and reconsideration of climate mitigation and adaptation policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate understanding of the impacts of climate change on hulless barley and river in the Lhasa River Basin is of great significance to food security and water resources management in the plateau region. It is important to explore the relationship between hulless barley and river under the background of climate change for the comprehensive and coordinated development of agriculture and water conservancy. Based on the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform, the Random Forest algorithm was used to obtain the spatio‐temporal variation of hulless barley and river in the Lhasa River Basin from 2010 to 2020. The overall accuracy and Kappa coefficient of classification results were 89.54% and 85.96%, respectively. The average area and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) of hulless barley from 2010 to 2020 were 178.46 km2 and 0.69, respectively. The increase of accumulated precipitation, number of precipitation days, average dew point temperature (ADPT) and average wind speed (AWS) promoted the growth of hulless barley, with NDVI significant increasing rate of 0.0173 (R2 = 0.764, p < 0.001). The combined effects of human activities (construction of water conservancy facilities and mining activities), ADPT and AWS resulted in a significant decrease (decreasing rate: 10.8682 km2/year, p < 0.01) in river area during 2010–2020. There was a significant negative correlation (R2 = 0.722, p < 0.01) between hulless barley NDVI and river area driven by climate factors. The changes in hulless barley gravity center and river gravity center were consistent, and both shifted in the northeast direction. These results provide a scientific understanding of the impacts of plateau climate change on agriculture and water resource. The land cover maps of the Lhasa River Basin with long time series and high spatial resolution were drawn. Our study verified the relevance between hulless barley gravity center and river gravity center as well as the internal relationship between hulless barley growth and river area. Furthermore, we explored the interrelation relationships among hulless barley, the Lhasa River area and climate factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone (ASMA) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models for the historical period (1850–2014). The ASMA is a quasi‐stationary warm anticyclone during the boreal summer monsoon season, centred around Tibet. It is a prominent circulation feature that affects trace species transport, stratosphere–troposphere exchange, along with strong feedbacks to weather and climate. The study is a novel attempt to quantify the performance of models participating in the CMIP6 consortium and understand long‐term variability and teleconnections of the ASMA. We note that CMIP6 models capture the mean ASMA features reasonably well, albeit with some differences around the edges. For most of the models, interannual variations are not in phase with the reanalysis and show sharper increasing trend in the ASMA strength. There is about a twofold increase in the trends during the recent period (1980–2014) as compared to the 1950–2014 period. A multimodel mean (MME) chosen based upon the statistical metrics (mean, standard deviation, mean absolute error and root‐mean‐square error), target diagram, and density distributions is further used to examine the prominent modes of variability. Our results suggest that the signals of significant periodicity, particularly the 2–4 years signal, and the SST correlations in MME are inconsistent with observations. In CMIP6 models, we note stronger upper level divergence over the western and eastern Pacific but convergence over the Indian ocean, South Asia and the central Pacific. The streamfunction and rotational winds also show strong highs north of 20°N. Overall, it is seen that basic features such as spatial extent and evolution of ASMA are reasonably captured, but the strength and interannual variations are dissonant across the CMIP6 models. These findings are useful for studies focusing on regional meteorology, transportation of atmospheric tracers and climate change projections over the region involving the ASMA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the world's Third Pole, the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau has a large area of marshes, which plays an important role in global carbon cycle. The net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation is a crucial index for measuring the carbon flux of marsh ecosystems. Understanding the change in marsh NPP and its response to climatic change is important for assessing carbon sequestration of marsh ecosystems. Based on MODIS NPP data and climate data from 2000 to 2020, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal change in marsh NPP and determined its relationship with climate factors on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. The results showed that the average annual NPP of marshes on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau increased significantly by 11.70 ± 1.07 g C·m−2/10a during 2000–2020, with an average value of about 184.37 ± 11.12 g C·m−2. Spatially, the annual marsh NPP showed obviously increasing trend in the northeast but decreasing trend in the southwest regions. Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures had asymmetric effects on marsh NPP, with a larger positive effect of minimum temperature. Warmed minimum temperatures in winter and spring significantly increased the annual marsh NPP on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. The increasing maximum and minimum temperatures in the summer obviously promoted the vegetation growth in marshes. Additionally, the increasing spring precipitation could significantly increase the marsh NPP. Our results highlight that the asymmetric impacts of daytime and nighttime temperatures on marsh vegetation should be adequately considered in predicting marsh carbon sequestration on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, especially in the context of global asymmetric diurnal warming. Plain Language Summary: As the highest plateau in the world, the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau has large areas of marshes, which has important effects on the biogeochemical cycle and carbon balance. The net primary productivity (NPP) of marsh vegetation is a crucial index for measuring the carbon sequestration of marsh ecosystems. Until recently, the vegetation NPP changes of marsh and its response to climate change in the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau remain unclear. Using the NPP and climate data, this study analyzed the spatiotemporal variation in marsh NPP and its response to climate change in marshes of the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. This study analyzed, for the first time, the influences of daytime and nighttime temperature changes on vegetation NPP of marshes. Results show that the effects of day and night temperatures on the productivity of marsh vegetation are asymmetric on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. Compared with the annual maximum temperature, the annual minimum temperature had a larger positive effect on marsh NPP. Increased minimum temperatures in winter and spring could increase the annual marsh NPP on the Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau. The increasing maximum and minimum temperatures in the summer were beneficial to the vegetation growth in marshes. Additionally, increased spring precipitation could significantly increase the Plateau's annual marsh NPP. Key Points: Daytime and nighttime temperatures had asymmetric effects on the annual net primary productivity (NPP) of marshes on the Qinghai‐Tibet PlateauThe increases in summer daytime and nighttime temperature and nighttime temperature in winter and spring increased marsh NPPIncreased spring precipitation could increase the annual marsh NPP on the Plateau [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under global climate change, more frequent and widespread droughts have dramatic impacts on the water and carbon cycles. Water use efficiency (WUE) is a commonly used indicator reflecting the trade‐off relationship between carbon sequestration and water consumption. Therefore, this study aims to clarify the variations in WUE and the effects of drought on WUE in sensitive alpine meadows on the Tibetan Plateau. Based on 6‐year (2013–2018) continuous carbon and water flux data observed by the eddy covariance system, WUE was calculated by gross ecosystem productivity (GEP)/evapotranspiration (ET). WUE followed a unimodal variation with time during growing seasons in the years without droughts. However, drought disrupted this pattern by its effects on the coupled relationship between carbon and water fluxes. Specifically, droughts showed divergent effects on WUE variations in different periods of the growing seasons. In the early‐growing seasons, droughts induced an increase in WUE. During this period, WUE was mainly regulated by temperature and leaf area index (LAI), and the GEP was low due to the smaller LAI. Therefore, the drought‐induced reduction in GEP was less than that in ET; thus, WUE increased. In the mid‐growing seasons, droughts depressed WUE. WUE was dominated by water conditions and the LAI during this period. When drought occurred, GEP decreased faster than ET, and hence, WUE decreased. In the late‐growing season, WUE was mainly driven by temperature and the LAI, but short‐term drought slightly enhanced WUE. These results are helpful in understanding the responses of fragile alpine ecosystems to future climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article examines the effect of climate change on runoff from a cold Glacier in Tibet. Runoff from cold glaciers involves no temporal storage in cold glacier ice, but does manifest refreezing of meltwater. The paper applies a numerical mass-balance model to data recorded in the the Tanggula Mountains during the 1990s. Figures show meltwater freezing plays a nontrivial role in glacial runoff, and that studies treating meltwater and runoff water as equivalent err in doing so. Also, decreased precipitation increases glacial runoff.

The early Cenozoic topography of the northern Tibetan plateau remains enigmatic because of the paucity of independent paleoelevation constraints. Long‐held views of northward propagating deformation imply a low Paleogene elevation, but this prediction is speculative. We apply flexural modeling to reconstructed Paleogene isopach data obtained from the Qaidam basin, which requires a larger topographic load in the Qilian Shan and a smaller load in the Eastern Kunlun Shan. Incorporating knowledge of proto‐Paratethys marine incursions in the Paleogene Qaidam basin, we infer a topographically low (0.4–1.0 km) Eastern Kunlun Shan and a higher (0.4–1.5 km) Qilian Shan during the Paleogene. This implied paleo‐relief contrasts with previous predictions and suggests more recently, Neogene surface uplift in the Eastern Kunlun Shan has been more significant than in Qilian Shan, highlighting diachronous growth of the northern Tibetan plateau. The low‐moderate paleoelevation implies a warmer and more humid climate in Northern Tibet during the Paleogene. Plain Language Summary: The Tibetan plateau is Earth's highest and largest plateau and has a protracted growth history closely related to Cenozoic convergence between India and Asia. Resolving its paleoelevation in the early Cenozoic is instructive to understand its growth history and Asian climate changes. Although paleoaltimetry studies have provided critical constraints for the southern Tibetan plateau during Paleogene, the paleoelevation of the northern Tibet remains enigmatic. The largest basin in the plateau is the Qaidam Basin, surrounded by high elevation thrust belts. We conducted flexural modeling of early Cenozoic strata from the Qaidam basin, which suggests higher topography in the north (0.4–1.5 km) and lower topography (0.4–1.0 km) in the south. This unique topographic relief in the northern Tibetan plateau suggests that very significant surface uplift (3–4 km) occurred along the southern margin of Qaidam basin in the late Cenozoic. These results of early topographic relief in northern Tibet support hypotheses of a Paleogene warmer and more humid climate in North Tibet. This study provides a new approach that provides an independent constraint on the Paleogene paleoelevation of northern Tibet, contributing to our understanding of the growth of the Tibetan plateau and Asian paleoclimate. Key Points: Flexural modeling shows topographic loads generated by Eastern Kunlun Shan and Qilian Shan account for the subsidence of the Qaidam basinWe infer a low (0.4–1.0 km) Eastern Kunlun Shan and a moderate (0.4–1.5 km) Qilian Shan during the PaleogeneNeogene surface uplift was more pronounced in the Eastern Kunlun Shan compared with Qilian Shan [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is one of the most important factors influencing hydrologic and climatic quantities, and increases in ETo are often considered as a primary cause for drying under global warming scenarios. Based on bias‐corrected data from the Half a degree Additional Warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) experiment, we investigated changes in ETo and drying across the Yellow River Basin (YRB) for 1.5°C and 2°C stabilized warming, relative to the current decade (2006–2015). We used changes in the climatic water deficit (WD: defined as precipitation (P) minus (ETo) to determine drying and wetting trends. Results projected that mean annual ETo would increase significantly over the whole YRB, under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, with an increase of 4.54% (1.57–7.59% full uncertainty range) and 7.66% (4.49–10.61%), at 1.5°C and 2°C, respectively, averaged over the YRB for the multi‐model mean. It is unclear whether the YRB source region (the NE region of the Tibet Plateau) would be drier or wetter under 1.5°C and 2°C of warming, although it is likely that the N regions of the YRB, and the whole YRB except for the source region will be drier under 1.5°C and 2°C warming scenarios, respectively. With an additional 0.5°C warming, further intensification of drying is projected in the whole YRB, resulting from a more pronounced increase in ETo, and lesser increase/decrease in P. The increased ETo projected under a 0.5°C additional warming was mainly attributed to rising maximum temperatures (tasmax). These results highlight the importance of ETo, in terms of potential future YRB drying, and our study suggests that limiting future warming to 1.5°C would impact regional drying the least. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The selection of general circulation models (GCMs) with high capability to represent the past and likely future climate for a specific geographical location is a crucial step to assess impacts of climate change on different sectors. This study included pool of 105 and 78 GCMs for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project—Phase 5, applied an advanced envelope‐based selection approach to select representative GCMs for the Koshi river basin in China and Nepal at short‐term (2016–2045), mid‐century (2036–2065) and end‐of‐century (2071–2100) periods, and developed range of possible future precipitation and temperature scenarios with high resolution downscaled data (10 × 10 km2), which is the novelty contribution of the study. Considering RCP4.5, average annual precipitation is expected to increase by 0–16%, 4–23% and 4–24% in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. Using RCP8.5, equivalent predictions are 6–20%, 6–36% and 13–49% in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. Average annual temperature is expected to increase, but with higher increases during winter than in the monsoon period. Considering RCP4.5, average annual temperature is expected to increase by 1–1.4°C, 1.3–1.9°C and 1.6–2.8°C in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. Similarly, using RCP8.5, equivalent predictions are 1–1.6°C, 1.8–2.9°C and 3.1–5.6°C in the short‐term, mid‐century and end‐of‐century periods, respectively. The ensemble mean of absolute change in average precipitation and temperature projects that High Himalaya and Tibet regions are more sensitive to climate change considering precipitation and temperature, respectively. The results also suggest that GCMs selection for a catchment varies with climate scenarios and specific future time periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite widespread acceptance of the idea of working across disciplines and methods in climate change research, the interpretive social sciences continue to be relatively neglected in interdisciplinary research endeavours. Much greater appreciation across epistemological differences is necessary for inclusive collaborative efforts, which in turn requires explicit discussion of what those differences are. Based on the author's participation in an interdisciplinary research project on climate change in Tibet, this article discusses three conceptual challenges: knowledge, system and ontology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The subtropical jet stream plays a significant role in the climate system and there exists evidence that it has intensified since the 1950s. However, the lack of upper-air observations before this time makes it difficult to place this trend in a longer term context. Here, we show that a Tibetan ice core's snow accumulation and dust concentration records are respectively correlated and anti-correlated with wind speeds in the jet stream over Asia as represented in both the NCEP and the 20th Century Reanalyses. This behavior is consistent with an intensification of this jet stream that began in the 1870s. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Microbes play key roles in various biogeochemical processes, including carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycling. However, changes of microbial community at the functional gene level by livestock grazing, which is a global land-use activity, remain unclear. Here we use a functional gene array, GeoChip 4.0, to examine the effects of free livestock grazing on the microbial community at an experimental site of Tibet, a region known to be very sensitive to anthropogenic perturbation and global warming. Our results showed that grazing changed microbial community functional structure, in addition to aboveground vegetation and soil geochemical properties. Further statistical tests showed that microbial community functional structures were closely correlated with environmental variables, and variations in microbial community functional structures were mainly controlled by aboveground vegetation, soil C/N ratio, and NH4+-N. In-depth examination of N cycling genes showed that abundances of N mineralization and nitrification genes were increased at grazed sites, but denitrification and N-reduction genes were decreased, suggesting that functional potentials of relevant bioprocesses were changed. Meanwhile, abundances of genes involved in methane cycling, C fixation, and degradation were decreased, which might be caused by vegetation removal and hence decrease in litter accumulation at grazed sites. In contrast, abundances of virulence, stress, and antibiotics resistance genes were increased because of the presence of livestock. In conclusion, these results indicated that soil microbial community functional structure was very sensitive to the impact of livestock grazing and revealed microbial functional potentials in regulating soil N and C cycling, supporting the necessity to include microbial components in evaluating the consequence of land-use and/or climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that climate change alters abiotic factors (temperature and water availability) that directly affect ecosystem properties. However, less is known about the indirect impacts of climate change on ecosystem structure and function. Here, we show that experimental warming may deteriorate ecosystems via trophic interactions. In a Tibetan alpine meadow, plant species composition, size, coverage and above-ground biomass were investigated to reveal the effect of artificial warming ( c. 1 °C mean annual temperature at the soil surface), which was accomplished using warmed and ambient open top chambers. In addition, rodent damage to plants was assessed. The dicot forb silverweed Potentilla anserina increased significantly, while other species groups remained unchanged or decreased in plant community dominance rank after 2 years of artificial warming. The change in community structure was attributed to the difference in biomass allocation and growth form among species. In the third year, plateau zokors Myospalax fontanierii, a widespread rodent herbivore, damaged plants in the warmed chambers, while leaving plants in the ambient chambers mostly undamaged. Above-ground biomass was found to be smaller in the warmed chambers than the controls in the third year, in contrast to the trend of the first 2 years. In addition, zokor burrow density was positively correlated with silverweed biomass and its dominance within communities, which was consistent with findings of independent field investigations that silverweed-dominated plots were more likely to be visited and damaged by the zokors than sites-dominated by grass species. Synthesis and applications. The top-down negative effect of zokor damage on above-ground biomass in the warmed chambers was induced by the bottom-up effect of changes in species composition and community structure on zokor foraging behaviour, which were driven by artificial warming. Such trophic interactions may invalidate some predictions of ecological effects by current species-climate envelope models. Furthermore, because management measures including increasing the water table, planting grass and moderate cattle grazing may prevent silverweed dominance, we suggest that these interventions could be employed to control zokor damage in alpine meadows that are predicted to be drier and warmer in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phenological mismatches due to climate change may have important ecological consequences. In a three-year study, phenological shifts due to experimental warming markedly altered trophic relationships between plants and insect herbivores, causing a dramatic decline of reproductive capacity for one of the plant species. In a Tibetan meadow, the gentian (Gentiana formosa) typically flowers after the peak larva density of a noctuid moth (Melanchra pisi) that primarily feeds on a dominant forb (anemone, Anemone trullifolia var. linearis). However, artificial warming of ~1.5°C advanced gentian flower phenology and anemone vegetative phenology by a week, but delayed moth larvae emergence by two weeks. The warming increased larval density 10-fold, but decreased anemone density by 30%. The phenological and density shifts under warmed conditions resulted in the insect larvae feeding substantially on the gentian flowers and ovules; there was ~100-fold more damage in warmed than in unwarmed chambers. This radically increased trophic connection reduced gentian plant reproduction and likely contributed to its reduced abundance in the warmed chambers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Premise of the study: Little is known about the effect of environmental conditions on seed dormancy break at the community level or how it could be affected by climate change. This study tested the effects of storage conditions on germination of 489 species from high-elevation natural grasslands on the Tibet Plateau. • Methods: We stored seeds in dry cold, dry warm, and wet cold environments to test the effect of these conditions on germination. Germination responses were classified with the use of cluster analysis. The effect of phylogeny on germination response to storage conditions was determined. • Key results: Compared with results of wet cold conditions, storing seeds at dry warm or dry cold conditions decreased the mean community germination percentage by 17.93% and 16.07%, respectively. Storing seeds at dry warm vs. dry cold conditions decreased the community mean germination percentage by 4.61%. The germination response to moisture conditions during storage showed significant phylogenetic patterns, whereas the germination response to storage temperature did not. On the basis of the germinability of seeds of the same species stored under different conditions, germination may increase, decrease, or stay the same. • Conclusions: Within the high-elevation Tibetan grassland community, the different responses in dormancy breaking and germination behavior to the same storage conditions may have implications for understanding how this community might respond to climate change, in particular, some species may increase in the community, whereas others may decrease or remain the same. However, the potential for such change can be detected only by studying the responses of many species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]