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Abstract Background The association between smoking and nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is still uncertain. The aim of this study was to validate smoking effect on NPC and explore if smoking can induce NPC by persistently reactivating EBV in long‐term based on a prospective cohort design. Methods A NPC screening cohort with 10 181 eligible residents in Sihui city, southern China was conducted from 2008 to 2015. The smoking habit was investigated through the trained interviewers and EBV antibodies (VCA‐IgA, EBNA1‐IgA) as screening markers were tested periodically. New NPC cases were identified through local cancer registry. Cox's regression model was used to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of smoking on NPC incidence. In the non‐NPC participants, the associations between smoking and EBV seropositivity in different periods were assessed by logistic regression and generalized estimating equations (GEE). Results With a median of 7.54 years, 71 NPCs were diagnosed ≥1 year after recruitment. Compared with never smokers, the aHRs of developing NPC among ever smokers were 3.00 (95%CI: 1.46‐6.16). Stratified by sex, the HRs of ever smoking were 2.59 (95%CI: 1.07‐6.23) for male and 3.75 (95%CI: 1.25‐11.20) for female, respectively. Among the non‐NPC individuals, ever smoking was not only associated with EBV seropositivity at baseline, but also in the 3‐5 years of follow up, with adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of 1.68 (95%CI: 1.29‐2.18) for VCA‐IgA and 1.92 (95%CI: 1.42‐2.59) for EBNA1‐IgA. Among the smokers who were tested EBV antibodies at least twice, the similar results were obtained using GEE. Conclusion Smoking could significantly increase the long‐term risk of NPC in southern China, partly by persistently reactivating EBV.

Abstract Background The association of circulating inflammation markers with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is still largely unclear. This study aimed to comprehensively explore the relationship between circulating cytokine levels and the subsequent risk of NPC with a two-stage epidemiologic study in southern China. Methods The serum levels of 33 inflammatory cytokines were first measured in a hospital-based case–control study (150 NPC patients and 150 controls) using multiplex assay platforms. Marker levels were categorized into two or more groups based on the proportion of sample measurements that was above the lower limit of detection. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) relating the serum marker concentration to the risk of NPC were computed by multivariable logistic regression models. The associations were validated in 60 patients with NPC and 120 controls in a subsequent nested case–control study within a NPC screening trial. Potential interactions between serum cytokines and Epstein–Barr virus (EBV) relating to the risk of NPC were assessed using a likelihood ratio test. Results The levels of serum macrophage inflammatory protein (MIP)-1α and MIP-1β in the highest categories were associated with a decreased risk of NPC in both the case–control study (MIP-1α: OR = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.26–0.95; MIP-1β: OR = 0.47, 95% CI = 0.22–1.00) and the nested case–control study (MIP-1α: OR = 0.13, 95% CI = 0.03–0.62; MIP-1β: OR = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.04–0.94), compared with those in the lowest categories. Furthermore, individuals with lower levels of these two cytokine markers who were EBV seropositive presented with a largely higher risk of NPC compared with patients with higher levels who were EBV seronegative in both the case–control study (MIP-1α: OR = 16.28, 95% CI = 7.11–37.23; MIP-1β: OR = 12.86, 95% CI = 5.9–28.05) and the nested case–control study (MIP-1α: OR = 86.12, 95% CI = 10.58–701.03; MIP-1β: OR = 115.44, 95% CI = 13.92–957.73). Conclusions Decreased preclinical MIP-1α and MIP-1β levels might be associated with a subsequently increased risk of NPC. More mechanistic studies are required to fully understand this finding.