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Summary Understanding the processes underlying the transition from introduction to naturalization and spread is an important goal of invasion ecology. Release from pests and pathogens in association with capacity for rapid growth is thought to confer an advantage for species in novel regions. We assessed leaf herbivory and leaf-level traits associated with growth strategy in the native and exotic ranges of 13 invasive plant species from 256 populations. Species were native to either the Western Cape region of South Africa, south-western Australia or south-eastern Australia and had been introduced to at least one of the other regions or to New Zealand. We tested for evidence of herbivore release and shifts in leaf traits between native and exotic ranges of the 13 species. Across all species, leaf herbivory, specific leaf area and leaf area were significantly different between native and exotic ranges while there were no significant differences across the 13 species found for leaf mass, assimilation rate, dark respiration or foliar nitrogen. Analysis at the species- and region-level showed that eight out of 13 species had reduced leaf herbivory in at least one exotic region compared to its native range. Six out of 13 species had significantly larger specific leaf area (SLA) in at least one exotic range region and five of those six species experienced reduced leaf herbivory. Increases in SLA were underpinned by increases in leaf area rather than reductions in leaf mass. No species showed differences in the direction of trait shifts from the native range between different exotic regions. This suggests that the driver of selection on these traits in the exotic range is consistent across regions and hence is most likely to be associated with factors linked with introduction to a novel environment, such as release from leaf herbivory, rather than with particular environmental conditions. Synthesis. These results provide evidence that introduction of a plant species into a novel environment commonly results in a reduction in the top-down constraint imposed by herbivores on growth, allowing plants to shift towards a faster growth strategy which may result in an increase in population size and spread and consequently to invasive success.

1 The pea leafminer Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is an invasive species in North America and a serious economic pest on a wide variety of crops. We developed a bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) for this species and examined the envelope's potential location in North America under various future climates. * 2 We compared the future bioclimatic envelopes for L. huidobrensis using either simple scenarios comprising uniform changes in temperature/precipitation or climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Our simple scenarios were: (i) an increase of 0.1°C per degree in latitude with a 20% increase in summer precipitation and a 20% decrease in winter precipitation and (ii) an overall increase of 3°C everywhere, also with the same changes in precipitation. For GCM-modelled climate change, we used the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), each in combination with two scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A2 and B2). 3 The BEM results using the simple scenarios were more similar to each other than to the results obtained using GCM projections. The results were also qualitatively different (i.e. spatially different and divergent) depending on which GCM-scenario combination was used. 4 This modelling exercise illustrates that: (i) results using first approximation simple climate change scenarios can give predictions very different from those that use GCM-modelled climate projections (comprising a result that has worrying implications for empirical impact research) and that (ii) different GCM-models using the same scenario can give very different results (implying strong model dependency in projected biological impacts).

Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of 'very favourable' regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change. OMAFRA; NSERC