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Air-sea interaction in late boreal winter is studied over the extratropical North Atlantic (NA) during 1960–2020 by examining the relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and total turbulent heat flux (THF). The two quantities are positively correlated on interannual timescales over the central-midlatitude and subpolar NA, suggesting the atmosphere on average drives SST and THF variability is independent of SST. On decadal timescales and over the central-midlatitude NA the correlation is negative, suggesting ocean processes on average drive SST and THF variability is sensitive to SST. The correlation is positive over the subpolar NA. There, interannual and decadal THF variability is governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the major late 20th and early 21st century SST increase in the subpolar NA diminishing oceanic heat loss associated with a weakening NAO was observed. This study suggests that the atmosphere is more sensitive to SST over the central-midlatitude than subpolar NA. Key Points: - Regional variation in the nature of air-sea interaction over the extratropical North Atlantic (NA) north of 35°N - Timescale dependence in relationship between sea-surface temperature (SST) and turbulent heat flux over the central-midlatitude NA - The atmosphere is more sensitive to SST variability over the central-midlatitude than subpolar NA

Twenty-first-century climate change projections are uncertain, especially on regional scales. An important source of uncertainty is that climate models exhibit biases, which limits their ability to predict climate. One of the largest biases is the too warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the eastern tropical Atlantic (TA), reflecting deficient atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Here, we show that CO2-forced TA-sector climate changes simulated by state-of-the-art climate models exhibit a strong mean-state dependence. In particular, models simulating largest SST warming in the eastern TA, consistent with the warming observed since the mid-20th century, typically exhibit a more realistic mean state than models simulating largest warming in the western TA. The former models exhibit a larger climate sensitivity, and predict stronger and in part qualitatively different climate changes over the TA sector, for example in precipitation. These findings may help to reducing uncertainty in TA-climate change projections.

Observations and reanalysis products are used to investigate the substantial weakening in the southeastern tropical Atlantic sea‐surface temperature (SST) variability since 2000. Relative to 1982‐1999, the March‐April‐May SST variability in the Angola‐Benguela area (ABA) has decreased by more than 30 %. Both equatorial remote forcing and local forcing are known to play an important role in driving SST variability in the ABA. Compared to 1982‐1999, since 2000 equatorial remote forcing had less influence on ABA SSTs whereas local forcing has become more important. In particular, the robust correlation that existed between the equatorial zonal wind stress and the ABA SSTs has substantially weakened, suggesting less influence of Kelvin waves on ABA SSTs. Moreover, the strong correlation linking the South Atlantic Anticyclone and the ABA SSTs has reduced. Finally, multidecadal surface warming of the ABA could also have played a role in the weakening of the interannual SST variability.

Long‐term predictability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is commonly attributed to buoyancy‐forced changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. Here we investigate the role of surface wind stress forcing in decadal hindcasts as another source of extratropical North Atlantic SST predictability. For this purpose, a global climate model is forced by reanalysis (ERA‐interim) wind stress anomalies over the period 1979–2017. The simulated climate states serve as initial conditions for decadal hindcasts. Significant skill in predicting detrended observed annual SST anomalies is observed over the extratropical central North Atlantic with anomaly correlation coefficients exceeding 0.6 at lead times of 4 to 7 yrs. The skill is insensitive to the calendar month of initialization and primarily linked to upper ocean heat content anomalies that lead anomalous SSTs by several years.

Stable oxygen isotope records from central Greenland suggest disproportionally large long‐term surface air temperature (SAT) variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) relative to preindustrial times. Large perturbations in mean atmospheric circulation and its variability forced by extensive Northern Hemisphere ice sheet coverage have been suggested as cause for the enhanced Greenland SAT variability. Here, we assess the factors driving Greenland SAT variability during the LGM by means of dedicated climate model simulations and find remote forcing from the Pacific of critical importance. Atmospheric teleconnections from the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a multidecadal oscillation of sea surface temperature in the Pacific Ocean, strongly intensify under LGM conditions, driving enhanced surface wind variability over Greenland, which in turn amplifies SAT variability by anomalous atmospheric heat transport. A major role of the IPO in forcing Greenland SAT variability also is supported by a number of models from the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project Phase III

The interaction between the atmosphere, specifically the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the North Atlantic ocean circulation on sub‐decadal timescale is analyzed in a subset of models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). From preindustrial control runs of at least 500 years length, we derive anomaly patterns in the atmospheric and ocean circulation and of air‐sea heat exchange. All models simulate a distinct dipolar oceanic overturning anomaly at the sub‐decadal timescale, with centers at 30° N and 55° N. The dipolar overturning anomaly goes along with marked anomalies in the North Atlantic sea surface temperature and gyre circulation. Lag‐regression analyses demonstrate, with relatively small ensemble spread, how the atmosphere and the ocean circulation interact. The dipolar anomalies in the overturning are forced by NAO‐related wind stress curl anomalies. Anomalous surface heat fluxes in concert with anomalous vertical motions drive a meridional dipolar heat content anomaly in the upper ocean, and it is this dipolar heat content anomaly which carries the coupled system from one phase of the sub‐decadal cycle to the other by reversing the tendencies in the overturning circulation. The coupled sub‐decadal variability derived from the CMIP5 models is characterized by three elements: a wind‐driven part steering the dipolar overturning anomaly, surface heat flux anomalies that support a heat build‐up in the subpolar gyre region, and the heat storage memory which is instrumental in the phase reversal of the NAO.

Characteristics of the seasonal and interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific (EEP) over last two interglacials, the Holocene and Eemian, are analyzed using transient climate simulations with the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). There is a tendency towards a strengthening of the seasonal as well as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation‐ (ENSO) related variability from the early to the late interglacials. The weaker EEP SST annual cycle during the early interglacials is mainly result of insolation‐forced cooling during its warm phase and dynamically‐induced warming during its cold phase. Enhanced convection over northern South America weakens northeasterlies in the EEP leading to weaker equatorial upwelling, deeper thermocline and subsequent warming in this region. We show that a negative ENSO modulation of the annual cycle operates only on short timescales and does not affect their evolution on orbital time scales where both ENSO and annual cycle show similar tendencies to increase.

Climate models generally underestimate the pronounced warming in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic during the mid‐Pliocene that is suggested by proxy data. Here we investigate the influence of the North Atlantic cold SST bias, which is observed in many climate models, on the simulation of mid‐Pliocene surface climate in a series of simulations with the Kiel Climate Model. A surface freshwater‐flux correction is applied over the North Atlantic, which considerably improves simulation of North Atlantic Ocean circulation and SST under present‐day conditions. Using reconstructed mid‐Pliocene boundary conditions with closed Bering and Arctic Archipelago Straits, the corrected model depicts significantly reduced model‐proxy SST discrepancy in comparison to the uncorrected model. A key factor in reducing the discrepancy is the stronger and more sensitive Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and poleward heat transport. We conclude that simulations of mid‐Pliocene surface climate over the North Atlantic can considerably benefit from alleviating model biases in this region.

Climate models depict large diversity in the strength of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (ENSO amplitude). Here we investigate ENSO-amplitude diversity in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) by means of the linear recharge oscillator model, which reduces ENSO dynamics to a two-dimensional problem in terms of eastern equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (T) and equatorial Pacific upper ocean heat content anomalies (h). We find that a large contribution to ENSO-amplitude diversity originates from stochastic forcing. Further, significant interactions exist between the stochastic forcing and the growth rates of T and h with competing effects on ENSO amplitude. The joint consideration of stochastic forcing and growth rates explains more than 80% of the ENSO-amplitude variance within CMIP5. Our results can readily explain the lack of correlation between the Bjerknes Stability index, a measure of the growth rate of T, and ENSO amplitude in a multimodel ensemble.

Proxy data suggest the onset of Northern Hemisphere glaciation during the Plio-Pleistocene transition from 3.2 to 2.5 Ma resulted in enhanced climate variability at the obliquity (41 kyr) frequency. Here, we investigate the influence of the expanding Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) on the mean climate and obliquity-related variability in a series of climate model simulations. These suggest that an expanding GrIS weakens the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) by ~1 Sv, mainly due to reduced heat loss in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian Sea. Moreover, the growing GrIS amplifies the Hadley circulation response to obliquity forcing driving variations in freshwater export from the tropical Atlantic and in turn variations of the AMOC. The stronger AMOC response to obliquity forcing, by about a factor of two, results in a stronger global-mean near-surface temperature response. We conclude that the AMOC response to obliquity forcing is important to understand the enhanced climate variability at the obliquity frequency during the Plio-Pleistocene transition.

Global climate models exhibit large biases in the Southern Ocean. For example, in models Antarctic bottom water is formed mostly through open-ocean deep-convection rather than through shelf convection. Still, the timescale, region, and intensity of deep-convection variability vary widely among models. We investigate the physical controls of this variability in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean, where most of the models simulate recurring deep-convection events. We analyzed output from eleven exemplary CMIP5 models and four versions of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). Of several potential physical control parameters that we tested, the ones shared by all these models are: Stratification in the convection region influences the timescale of the deep-convection variability, i.e. models with a strong (weak) stratification vary on long (short) timescales. And, sea ice volume affects the modeled mean state in the Southern Ocean: large (small) sea ice volume is associated with a non-convective (convective) predominant regime.

While the Earth's surface has considerably warmed over the past two decades, the tropical Pacific has featured a cooling of sea surface temperatures in its eastern and central parts, which went along with an unprecedented strengthening of the equatorial trade winds, the surface component of the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC). Previous studies show that this decadal trend in the trade winds is generally beyond the range of decadal trends simulated by climate models when forced by historical radiative forcing. There is still a debate on the origin of and the potential role that internal variability may have played in the recent decadal surface wind trend. Using a number of long control (unforced) integrations of global climate models and several observational data sets, we address the question as to whether the recent decadal to multidecadal trends are robustly classified as an unusual event or the persistent response to external forcing. The observed trends in the tropical Pacific surface climate are still within the range of the long-term internal variability spanned by the models but represent an extreme realization of this variability. Thus, the recent observed decadal trends in the tropical Pacific, though highly unusual, could be of natural origin. We note that the long-term trends in the selected PWC indices exhibit a large observational uncertainty, even hindering definitive statements about the sign of the trends.

Much of modern climate science fails to consider millennium-scale processes, many of which may prove to be important for predicting the climate trajectory in the shorter term.

We performed simulations with a global model of ocean biogeochemistry forced with orbitally driven anomalies of oceanic conditions for the mid-Holocene, known as Holocene climate optimum, to investigate natural variability in the eastern equatorial Pacific oxygen minimum zone (EEP OMZ). While the global mean temperature during the mid-Holocene was likely slightly higher than the 1961–1990 mean, the sea surface temperature in the EEP was slightly lower. Mid-Holocene oxygen concentrations in the EEP OMZ are generally increased, locally by up to 50%, and the EEP OMZ volume was, depending on definition of the OMZ threshold, at least 6% lower. These higher oxygen levels are the combined result of competing physical and biogeochemical processes. Our results imply that mechanisms for past changes in the EEP OMZ intensity and extension can differ from the global warming driven decline in oxygen levels observed for the recent decades and predicted for the future.

Observations show that the Equatorial Atlantic Zonal Mode (ZM) obeys similar physics to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO): positive Bjerknes and delayed negative feedbacks. This implies the ZM may be predictable on seasonal timescales, but models demonstrate little prediction skill in this region. In this study using different configurations of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM) exhibiting different levels of systematic error, we show that a reasonable simulation of the ZM depends on realistic representation of the mean state, i.e., surface easterlies along the equator, upward sloping thermocline to the east, with an equatorial SST cold tongue in the east. We further attribute the differences in interannual variability among the simulations to the individual components of the positive Bjerknes and delayed negative feedbacks. Differences in the seasonality of the variability are similarly related to the impact of seasonal biases on the Bjerknes feedback. Our results suggest that model physics must be enhanced to enable skillful seasonal predictions in the Tropical Atlantic Sector, although some improvement with regard to the simulation of Equatorial Atlantic interannual variability may be achieved by momentum flux correction. This pertains especially to the seasonal phase locking of interannual SST variability.

Ocean–atmosphere interactions play a key role in climate variability on a wide range of time scales from seasonal to decadal and longer. The extratropical oceans are thought to exert noticeable feedbacks on the atmosphere especially on decadal and longer time scales, yet the large-scale atmospheric response to anomalous extratropical sea surface temperature (SST) is still under debate. Here we show, by means of dedicated high-resolution atmospheric model experiments, that sufficient daily variability in the extratropical background SST needs to be resolved to force a statistically significant large-scale atmospheric response to decadal North Pacific SST anomalies associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which is consistent with observations. The large-scale response is mediated by atmospheric eddies. This implies that daily extratropical SST fluctuations must be simulated by the ocean components and resolved by the atmospheric components of global climate models to enable realistic simulation of decadal North Pacific sector climate variability.

We examine the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) bias on inter-annual variability during boreal summer over the equatorial Atlantic using two suites of partially coupled model (PCM) experiments with and without surface heat flux correction. In the experiments, surface wind stress anomalies are specified from observations while the thermodynamic coupling between the atmospheric and oceanic components is still active as in the fully coupled model. The results show that the PCM can capture around 50% of the observed variability associated with the Atlantic Niño from 1958 to 2013, but only when the bias is substantially reduced using heat flux correction, with no skill otherwise. We further show that ocean dynamics explain a large part of the SST variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic in both observations (50-60%) and the PCM experiments (50-70%) with heat flux correction, implying that the seasonal predictability potential may be higher than currently thought.

A long-standing problem in climate modeling is the inaccurate simulation of tropical Atlantic (TA) sea surface temperature (SST), known as the TA SST bias. It has far-reaching consequences for climate prediction in that area as it goes along, among others, with erroneous precipitation patterns. We show that the TA SST bias can be largely reduced by increasing both the atmospheric horizontal and vertical resolution in a climate model. At high horizontal resolution, enhanced vertical resolution is indispensable to substantially improve the simulation of TA SST by enhancing surface wind stress. This also reduces biases in the upper ocean thermal structure and precipitation patterns. Although, enhanced horizontal resolution alone leads to some improvement in the mean climate, typical bias patterns characterized by a reversed zonal SST gradient at the equator and too warm SST in the Benguela upwelling region are mostly unchanged at a coarser vertical resolution.

Extraordinarily strong El Niño events, such as those of 1982/83 and 1997/98, have been poorly predicted by operational seasonal forecasts made before boreal spring, despite significant advances in understanding, improved models, and enhanced observational networks. The Equatorial Atlantic Zonal Mode – a phenomenon similar to El Niño but much weaker and peaking in boreal summer – impacts winds over the Pacific, and hence affects El Niño, and also potentially its predictability. Here we use a climate model to perform a suite of seasonal predictions with and without SST in the Atlantic restored to observations. We show for the first time that knowledge of Equatorial Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) significantly improves the prediction across boreal spring of major El Niño events and also weaker variability. This is because Atlantic SST acts to modulate El Niño variability, rather than triggering events. Our results suggest that better prediction of major El Niño events might be achieved through model improvement in the Equatorial Atlantic.