1. Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Feedbacks on Crop Yields under Climate Change
- Author
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Basso, B., Dumont, B., Maestrini, B., Shcherbak, I., Robertson, G.P., Porter, J.R., Smith, P.J., Paustian, K., Grace, P.R., Asseng, S., Bassu, S., Biernath, C.J., Boote, K.J., Cammarano, D., de Sanctis, G., Durand, J.L., Ewert, F., Gayler, S., Grant, R., Hyndman, D.W., Kent, J.W., Martre, P., Nendel, C., Priesack, E., Ripoche, D., Ruane, A.C., Sharp, J., Thorburn, P.J., Hatfield, J.L., Jones, J.W., Rosenzweig, C., Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Université de Liège, Fonctionnement et conduite des systèmes de culture tropicaux et méditerranéens (UMR SYSTEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre International de Hautes Etudes Agronomiques Méditerranéennes - Institut Agronomique Méditerranéen de Montpellier (CIHEAM-IAMM), Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Centre International de Hautes Études Agronomiques Méditerranéennes (CIHEAM)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), INSTITUTE OF BIOLOGICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES, University of Aberdeen, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Institute for Future Environments, Queensland University of Technology, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), European Commission, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP), German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), The James Hutton Institute, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), Leibniz Association, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Partenaires INRAE, Plant & Food Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, UKAID for its primary financial support to the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), USDA-NIFA under awards 2015-68007-23133, 2011-67003-3025, and 2011-68002-30190, FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B), metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA), and Swiss National Science Foundation (project number 167689).
- Subjects
[SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences ,scénario climatique ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Soil Science ,Climate change ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,01 natural sciences ,modèle de rendement ,zea mays ,Derivative (finance) ,carbone organique du sol ,triticum aestivum ,License ,Publication ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Explicit permission ,2. Zero hunger ,changement climatique ,business.industry ,Crop yield ,04 agricultural and veterinary sciences ,Soil carbon ,15. Life on land ,Environmental economics ,Agricultural sciences ,13. Climate action ,040103 agronomy & agriculture ,0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries ,Business ,Agronomy and Crop Science ,Sciences agricoles ,modèle de production - Abstract
A critical omission from climate change impact studies on crop yield is the interaction between soil organic carbon (SOC), nitrogen (N) availability, and carbon dioxide (CO2). We used a multimodel ensemble to predict the effects of SOC and N under different scenarios of temperatures and CO2 concentrations on maize (Zea mays L.) and wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) yield in eight sites across the world. We found that including feedbacks from SOC and N losses due to increased temperatures would reduce yields by 13% in wheat and 19% in maize for a 3°C rise temperature with no adaptation practices. These losses correspond to an additional 4.5% (+3°C) when compared to crop yield reductions attributed to temperature increase alone. Future CO2 increase to 540 ppm would partially compensate losses by 80% for both maize and wheat at +3°C, and by 35% for wheat and 20% for maize at +6°C, relative to the baseline CO2 scenario.
- Published
- 2018
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