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Many operational weather services use ensembles of forecasts to generate probabilistic predictions. Computational costs generally limit the size of the ensemble to fewer than 100 members, although the large number of degrees of freedom in the forecast model would suggest that a vastly larger ensemble would be required to represent the forecast probability distribution accurately. In this study, we use a computationally efficient idealised model that replicates key properties of the dynamics and statistics of cumulus convection to identify how the sampling uncertainty of statistical quantities converges with ensemble size. Convergence is quantified by computing the width of the 95% confidence interval of the sampling distribution of random variables, using bootstrapping on the ensemble distributions at individual time and grid points. Using ensemble sizes of up to 100,000 members, it was found that for all computed distribution properties, including mean, variance, skew, kurtosis, and several quantiles, the sampling uncertainty scaled as n−1/2 for sufficiently large ensemble size n. This behaviour is expected from the Central Limit Theorem, which further predicts that the magnitude of the uncertainty depends on the distribution shape, with a large uncertainty for statistics that depend on rare events. This prediction was also confirmed, with the additional observation that such statistics also required larger ensemble sizes before entering the asymptotic regime. By considering two methods for evaluating asymptotic behaviour in small ensembles, we show that the large‐n theory can be applied usefully for some forecast quantities even for the ensemble sizes in operational use today., An idealised ensemble that replicates key properties of the dynamics and statistics of cumulus convection is used to identify how sampling uncertainty of statistical quantities converges with ensemble size. A universal asymptotic scaling for this convergence was found, which was dependent on the statistic and the distribution shape, with largest uncertainty for statistics that depend on rare events. This is demonstrated in the figure below for a Gaussian distributed model variable, where the sampling uncertainty (y‐axis) for 5 quantiles (red lines) indicates that after a certain ensemble size, it begins converging asymptotically (grey lines), and the more extreme the quantile, the more members it requires for this to be the case., Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659, Klaus Tschira Stiftung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007316

Trifluoromethoxylated (hetero)arenes are of great interest for several disciplines, especially in agro‐ and medicinal chemistry. Radical C−H trifluoromethoxylation of (hetero)arenes represents an attractive approach to prepare such compounds, but the high cost and low atom economy of existing .OCF3 radical sources make them unsuitable for the large‐scale synthesis of trifluoromethoxylated building blocks. Herein, we introduce bis(trifluoromethyl)peroxide (BTMP, CF3OOCF3) as a practical and efficient trifluoromethoxylating reagent that is easily accessible from inexpensive bulk chemicals. Using either visible light photoredox or TEMPO catalysis, trifluoromethoxylated arenes could be prepared in good yields under mild conditions directly from unactivated aromatics. Moreover, TEMPO catalysis allowed for the one‐step synthesis of valuable pyridine derivatives, which have been previously prepared via multi‐step approaches., Bis(trifluoromethyl)peroxide (BTMP) is introduced as a new reagent for the C−H trifluoromethoxylation of arenes and heteroarenes. Readily accessed from inexpensive bulk chemicals, BTMP serves as a practical source of •OCF3 radicals upon activation through either visible light photoredox or TEMPO catalysis. Both methods deliver valuable fluorine‐containing building blocks in a single step from (hetero)aromatic feedstocks.

Key points Tamoxifen-inducible skeletal muscle-specific AXIN1 knockout (AXIN1 imKO) in mouse does not affect whole-body energy substrate metabolism. AXIN1 imKO does not affect AICAR or insulin-stimulated glucose uptake in adult skeletal muscle AXIN1 imKO does not affect adult skeletal muscle AMPK or mTORC1 signaling during AICAR/insulin/amino acid incubation, contraction and exercise. During exercise, α2/β2/γ3AMPK and AMP/ATP ratio show greater increases in AXIN1 imKO than wild-type in gastrocnemius muscle. Abstract AXIN1 is a scaffold protein known to interact with >20 proteins in signal transduction pathways regulating cellular development and function. Recently, AXIN1 was proposed to assemble a protein complex essential to catabolic-anabolic transition by coordinating AMPK activation and inactivation of mTORC1 and to regulate glucose uptake-stimulation by both AMPK and insulin. To investigate whether AXIN1 is permissive for adult skeletal muscle function, a phenotypic in vivo and ex vivo characterization of tamoxifen-inducible skeletal muscle-specific AXIN1 knockout (AXIN1 imKO) mice was conducted. AXIN1 imKO did not influence AMPK/mTORC1 signaling or glucose uptake stimulation, neither at rest nor in response to different exercise/contraction protocols, pharmacological AMPK activation, insulin or amino acids stimulation. The only genotypic difference observed was in exercising gastrocnemius muscle, where AXIN1 imKO displayed elevated α2/β2/γ3 AMPK activity and AMP/ATP ratio compared to wild-type mice. Our work shows that AXIN1 imKO generally does not affect skeletal muscle AMPK/mTORC1 signaling and glucose metabolism, likely due to functional redundancy of its homolog AXIN2. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Key points Muscle contractions increase protein synthesis in a mechanistic target of rapamycin (mTOR)-dependent manner, yet it is unclear which/how mTOR complexes regulate muscle protein synthesis. We investigated the requirement of mTOR Complex 2 (mTORC2) in contraction-stimulated muscle protein synthesis. mTORC2 inhibition by muscle-specific Rictor knockout (Rictor mKO) did not prevent contraction-induced muscle protein synthesis. Rapamycin prevented contraction-induced muscle protein synthesis in Rictor mKO but not wild-type mice. Abstract Protein synthesis increases following muscle contractions. Previous studies have shown that inhibition of the mechanistic target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1) suppresses the early but not late muscle protein synthesis response, while inhibition of both mTORC1 and mTORC2 abolishes the two effects. Therefore, we hypothesized that mTORC2 regulates muscle protein synthesis following muscle contractions. To test this, we investigated the effect of mTORC2 inhibition by mouse muscle-specific Rictor knockout (Rictor mKO) on muscle protein synthesis 3 h after contraction. The right gastrocnemius muscles of Rictor mKO and wild-type (WT) mice were isometrically contracted using percutaneous electrical stimulation, while the left gastrocnemius muscles served as controls. Vehicle or the mTORC1 inhibitor rapamycin (1.5 mg/kg) was injected intraperitoneally 1 h before contraction. Treatment of WT mice with rapamycin and Rictor mKO lowered protein synthesis in general, but the response to contractions was intact 3 h after contractions in both conditions. Rapamycin treatment in Rictor mKO mice prevented contraction-stimulated muscle protein synthesis. Notably, signalling traditionally associated with mTORC1 was increased by muscle contractions despite rapamycin treatment. In rapamycin-treated Rictor mKO mice, the same mTORC1 signalling was blocked following contractions. Our results indicate that although neither rapamycin-sensitive mTOR/mTORC1 nor mTORC2 is necessary for contraction-induced muscle protein synthesis, combined inhibition of rapamycin-sensitive mTOR/mTORC1 and mTORC2 synergistically inhibits contraction-induced muscle protein synthesis.

KEY POINTS Muscle-specific genetic ablation of p21-activated kinase (PAK)2, but not whole-body PAK1 knockout, impairs glucose tolerance in mice. Insulin-stimulated glucose uptake partly relies on PAK2 in glycolytic extensor digitorum longus muscle By contrast to previous reports, PAK1 is dispensable for insulin-stimulated glucose uptake in mouse muscle. ABSTRACT The group I p21-activated kinase (PAK) isoforms PAK1 and PAK2 are activated in response to insulin in skeletal muscle and PAK1/2 signalling is impaired in insulin-resistant mouse and human skeletal muscle. Interestingly, PAK1 has been suggested to be required for insulin-stimulated glucose transporter 4 translocation in mouse skeletal muscle. Therefore, the present study aimed to examine the role of PAK1 in insulin-stimulated muscle glucose uptake. The pharmacological inhibitor of group I PAKs, IPA-3 partially reduced (-20%) insulin-stimulated glucose uptake in isolated mouse soleus muscle (P

Key points AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK)-dependent Raptor Ser792 phosphorylation does not influence mechanistic target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1)-S6K1 activation by intense muscle contraction. α2 -AMPK activity-deficient mice have lower contraction-stimulated protein synthesis. Increasing glycogen activates mTORC1-S6K1. Normalizing muscle glycogen content rescues reduced protein synthesis in AMPK-deficient mice. Abstract The mechansitic target of rapamycin complex 1 (mTORC1)-S6K1 signalling pathway regulates muscle growth-related protein synthesis and is antagonized by AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) in multiple cell types. Resistance exercise stimulates skeletal muscle mTORC1-S6K1 and AMPK signalling and post-contraction protein synthesis. Glycogen inhibits AMPK and has been proposed as a pro-anabolic stimulus. The present study aimed to investigate how muscle mTORC1-S6K1 signalling and protein synthesis respond to resistance exercise-mimicking contraction in the absence of AMPK and with glycogen manipulation. Resistance exercise-mimicking unilateral in situ contraction of musculus quadriceps femoris in anaesthetized wild-type and dominant negative α2 AMPK kinase dead transgenic (KD-AMPK) mice, measuring muscle mTORC1 and AMPK signalling immediately (0 h) and 4 h post-contraction, and protein-synthesis at 4 h. Muscle glycogen manipulation by 5 day oral gavage of the glycogen phosphorylase inhibitor CP316819 and sucrose (80 g L-1 ) in the drinking water prior to in situ contraction. The mTORC1-S6K1 and AMPK signalling axes were coactivated immediately post-contraction, despite potent AMPK-dependent Ser792 phosphorylation on the mTORC1 subunit raptor. KD-AMPK muscles displayed normal mTORC1-S6K1 activation at 0 h and 4 h post-exercise, although there was impaired contraction-stimulated protein synthesis 4 h post-contraction. Pharmacological/dietary elevation of muscle glycogen content augmented contraction-stimulated mTORC1-S6K1-S6 signalling and rescued the reduced protein synthesis-response in KD-AMPK to wild-type levels. mTORC-S6K1 signalling is not influenced by α2 -AMPK during or after intense muscle contraction. Elevated glycogen augments mTORC1-S6K1 signalling. α2 -AMPK-deficient KD-AMPK mice display impaired contraction-induced muscle protein synthesis, which can be rescued by normalizing muscle glycogen content.

BackgroundSkeletal muscle wasting is often associated with insulin resistance. A major regulator of muscle mass is the transforming growth factor β (TGF-β) superfamily, including activin A, which causes atrophy. TGF-β superfamily ligands also negatively regulate insulin-sensitive proteins, but whether this pathway contributes to insulin action remains to be determined.MethodsTo elucidate if TGF-β superfamily ligands regulate insulin action we used an adeno-associated virus gene editing approach to overexpress the activin A inhibitor, follistatin (Fst288) in mouse muscle of lean and diet-induced obese mice. We determined basal and insulin-stimulated 2 deoxy-glucose uptake using isotopic tracers in vivo. Furthermore, to evaluate whether circulating Fst and activin A concentrations are associated with obesity, insulin resistance, and weight loss in humans we analysed serum from morbidly obese subjects before, 1 week, and 1 year after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB).ResultsFst288 muscle overexpression markedly increased in vivo insulin-stimulated (but not basal) glucose uptake (+75%, pConclusionsWe here present evidence that Fst is a potent regulator of insulin action in muscle and in addition to AKT and p70S6K, we identify TBC1D1, TBC1D4 and PAK1 as Fst targets. A possible role for Fst in regulating glycemic control is suggested because circulating Fst more than doubled post RYGB surgery, a treatment that markedly improved insulin sensitivity. These findings demonstrate the therapeutic potential of inhibiting TGF-β superfamily ligands to improve insulin action and Fst’s relevance to muscle wasting associated insulin resistant conditions in mice and humans.

This research demonstrates a common psychology of outgroup hostility driven by perceived intergroup threat among three groups and seven cultural contexts: non-Muslim Westerners, Muslims in Western ...

Key points Exercise is a potent physiological stimulus to clear blood glucose from the circulation into skeletal muscle. The mammalian target of rapamycin complex 2 (mTORC2) is an important regulator of muscle glucose uptake in response to insulin stimulation. Here we report for the first time that the activity of mTORC2 in mouse muscle increases during exercise. We further show that glucose uptake during exercise is decreased in mouse muscle that lacks mTORC2 activity. We also provide novel identifications of new mTORC2 substrates during exercise in mouse muscle. Abstract Exercise increases glucose uptake into insulin-resistant muscle. Thus, elucidating the exercise signalling network in muscle may uncover new therapeutic targets. The mammalian target of rapamycin complex 2 (mTORC2), a regulator of insulin-controlled glucose uptake, has been reported to interact with ras-related C3 botulinum toxin substrate 1 (Rac1), which plays a role in exercise-induced glucose uptake in muscle. Therefore, we tested the hypothesis that mTORC2 activity is necessary for muscle glucose uptake during treadmill exercise. We used mice that specifically lack mTORC2 signalling in muscle by deletion of the obligatory mTORC2 component Rictor (Ric mKO). Running capacity and running-induced changes in blood glucose, plasma lactate and muscle glycogen levels were similar in wild-type (Ric WT) and Ric mKO mice. At rest, muscle glucose uptake was normal, but during running muscle glucose uptake was reduced by 40% in Ric mKO mice compared to Ric WT mice. Running increased muscle phosphorylated 5′ AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) similarly in Ric WT and Ric mKO mice, and glucose transporter type 4 (GLUT4) and hexokinase II (HKII) protein expressions were also normal in Ric mKO muscle. The mTORC2 substrate, phosphorylated protein kinase C α (PKCα), and the mTORC2 activity readout, phosphorylated N-myc downstream regulated 1 (NDRG1) protein increased with running in Ric WT mice, but were not altered by running in Ric mKO muscle. Quantitative phosphoproteomics uncovered several additional potential exercise-dependent mTORC2 substrates, including contractile proteins, kinases, transcriptional regulators, actin cytoskeleton regulators and ion-transport proteins. Our study suggests that mTORC2 is a component of the exercise signalling network that regulates muscle glucose uptake and we provide a resource of new potential members of the mTORC2 signalling network.

In Every Thing Must Go James Ladyman and Don Ross argue for a radical version of naturalistic metaphysics and propose that contemporary analytic metaphysics is detached from science and should be discontinued. The present article addresses the issues of whether (i) science and metaphysics are separable, (ii) intuitions and understanding should be excluded from scientific theory, and (iii) Ontic Structural Realism satisfies the criteria of the radical version of naturalism advanced by Ladyman and Ross. The point underlying those topics is that successful scientific research presupposes metaphysics, and that basic epistemic virtues common to metaphysics and science may allow us—as opposed to what Ladyman and Ross suggest—to increase our understanding of the world and to put constraints on allowable metaphysical theories.

Public discourse often portrays Islam as the main obstacle for Muslim minorities’ integration, paying little attention to the contextual factors hindering this process. Here, we focus on islamophobia as one destructive factor that hinders the mutual integration between Muslim minority and Western majority members, affecting both groups. In Study 1, the more islamophobic majority members were, the more they expected Muslims to give up their heritage culture and the less they wanted them to integrate. In Study 2, only when Muslims experienced substantial religious discrimination did religious identity negatively relate to national engagement and particularly positively relate to ethnic engagement. Together, the studies suggest that religious prejudice in the form of islamophobia is a major obstacle to Muslims’ integration because it increases the incongruity between majority and minority members’ acculturation attitudes.