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In lower-income countries, the economic contractions that accompany lockdowns to contain COVID-19 transmission can increase child mortality, counteracting the mortality reductions achieved by the lockdown. To formalize and quantify this effect, we build a macrosusceptible-infected-recovered model that features heterogeneous agents and a country-group-specific relationship between economic downturns and child mortality and calibrate it to data for 85 countries across all income levels. We find that in some low-income countries, a lockdown can produce net increases in mortality. The optimal lockdown that maximizes the present value of aggregate social welfare is shorter and milder in poorer countries than in rich ones.

Using data from an experimental supportive intervention to India's malaria control program, this paper studies the impact of leveraging local non-state capacity to promote mosquito net usage and recommended fever care-seeking patterns. The supportive activities were conducted simultaneously by three nongovernmental organizations in two endemic districts in the state of Orissa. The study finds that program impact varied significantly by location. Examining three potential sources of this variation (differential population characteristics, differential health worker characteristics, and differential implementer characteristics), the analysis provides evidence that both population and nongovernmental organization characteristics significantly affected the success of the program. The paper discusses these findings as they relate to the external validity of development policy evaluations and, specifically, for the ability of the health system to benefit from limited non-state capacity in under-resourced areas.

The human consequences of the recent global financial crisis for the developing world are presumed to be severe but few studies have quantified them. This letter estimates the human cost of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis in one critical dimension-infant mortality-for countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The analysis pools birth-level data as reported in female adult retrospective birth histories from all Demographic and Health Surveys collected in sub-Saharan Africa. This results in a data set of 639000 births to 264000 women in 30 countries. We use regression models with flexible controls for temporal trends to assess an infants likelihood of death as a function of fluctuations in national income. We then calculate the expected number of excess deaths by combining these estimates with growth shortfalls as a result of the crisis. The results suggest 28000-50000 excess infant deaths in sub-Saharan Africa in the crisis-affected year of 2009. Notably most of these additional deaths were concentrated among girls. Policies that protect the income of poor households and that maintain critical health services during times of economic contraction may reduce the expected increase in mortality. Interventions targeted at female infants and young girls can be particularly beneficial. Copyright (c) 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

One feature common to many post-socialist transition economies is a relatively compressed wage structure in the state-owned sector. We conjecture that this compressed wage structure creates weak incentives for work effort and worker skill acquisition and thus presents adverse consequences for the entire transition economy if a substantial portion of the labour force works in the state sector. We explore firm wage incentives and worker training, as well as other labour practices and outcomes, in a transition setting with matched firm and worker data collected in one of the largest provinces of Vietnam – Ho Chi Minh City. The Vietnamese state sector exhibits a compressed wage distribution in relation to privately owned firms with foreign ownership. State wage practices stress tenure over worker productivity and their wage policies result in flatter wage–experience profiles and lower returns to education. The state work force is in greater need of formal training, a need that is in part met through direct government financing. In spite of the opportunities for government financed training and at least partly due to inefficient worker incentives, state firms, by certain measures, exhibit lower levels of labour productivity. The private sector comparison group to state firms for all of these findings is foreign owned firms. The internal labour practices of foreign firms are more consistent with a view of profit-maximizing firms operating with no political constraints. This is not the case for Vietnamese de novo private firms that exhibit much more idiosyncratic behaviour and whose labour practices are often indistinguishable from state firms. The exact reasons for this remain a topic of on-going research yet we conjecture that various private sector constraints, including limited access to formal capital, play an important role.