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Climate change and land-use change are two major drivers of biome shifts causing habitat and biodiversity loss. What is missing is a continental-scale future projection of the estimated relative impacts of both drivers on biome shifts over the course of this century. Here, we provide such a projection for the biodiverse region of Latin America under four socio-economic development scenarios. We find that across all scenarios 5-6% of the total area will undergo biome shifts that can be attributed to climate change until 2099. The relative impact of climate change on biome shifts may overtake land-use change even under an optimistic climate scenario, if land-use expansion is halted by the mid-century. We suggest that constraining land-use change and preserving the remaining natural vegetation early during this century creates opportunities to mitigate climate-change impacts during the second half of this century. Our results may guide the evaluation of socio-economic scenarios in terms of their potential for biome conservation under global change.

Impacts • Dynamic data-based model generates stochastic forecasts of the occurrence of nephropathia epidemica (NE) epidemics 3 months ahead. • We have demonstrated that NE outbreaks can be accurately predicted using climatic and vegetation data or bank voles' population dynamics with a dynamic data-based model. • Such a modelling approach can be used to develop new tools to help prevent future NE outbreaks. Summary Wildlife-originated zoonotic diseases in general are a major contributor to emerging infectious diseases. Hantaviruses more specifically cause thousands of human disease cases annually worldwide, while understanding and predicting human hantavirus epidemics pose numerous unsolved challenges. Nephropathia epidemica (NE) is a human infection caused by Puumala virus, which is natu- rally carried and shed by bank voles (Myodes glareolus). The objective of this study was to develop a method that allows model-based predicting 3 months ahead of the occurrence of NE epidemics. Two data sets were utilized to develop and test the models. These data sets were concerned with NE cases in Finland and Belgium. In this study, we selected the most relevant inputs from all the available data for use in a dynamic linear regression (DLR) model. The number of NE cases in Finland were modelled using data from 1996 to 2008. The NE cases were predicted based on the time series data of average monthly air tem- perature (� C) and bank voles' trapping index using a DLR model. The bank voles' trapping index data were interpolated using a related dynamic harmonic regression model (DHR). Here, the DLR and DHR models used time-varying parameters. Both the DHR and DLR models were based on a unified state-space estimation framework. For the Belgium case, no time series of the bank voles' population dynamics were available. Several studies, however, have suggested that the population of bank voles is related to the variation in seed production of beech and oak trees in Northern Europe. Therefore, the NE occurrence pat- tern in Belgium was predicted based on a DLR model by using remotely sensed phenology parameters of broad-leaved forests, together with the oak and beech seed categories and average monthly air temperature (� C) using data from 2001 to 2009. Our results suggest that even without any knowledge about hantavirus dynamics in the host population, the time variation in NE outbreaks in Finland

Since, to our knowledge, no clinically documented cases of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) have been reported in Northern Ireland, a sero-epidemiological study was carried out to assess the degree of Hantavirus immunity in a group of 627 Northern Irish patients presenting with symptoms suggestive of HFRS and 100 healthy controls. IFA screening for IgG Hantavirus specific antibodies was carried out with a panel of up to 9 different Hantaviral antigens. IgM screening was performed using a commercially available ji-capture ELISA based upon two recombinant Hantaviral nucleocapsid antigens. A seropositivity of 2.1% (15/727) was recorded, with an almost exclusive reaction against a rat-derived R22VP30 strain of the Seoul serotype. Sole reliance upon non-rat-derived classic screening antigens Hantaan (HTN 76–118) and Puumala (CG 18–20) would have resulted in the detection of only 2/15 (13.3%) of cases in IgG IFA, and 8/14 (57.1%) of the cases in IgM ELISA. The findings indicate that for the first time in Europe, and more specifically in N. Ireland, non-laboratory outbreaks of HFRS may be caused by wild rats acting as a reservoir for a Seoul-like Hantavirus. Conventional Hantavirus serology using Hantaan and Puumala as screening antigens does not appear sufficient for the detection of such cases of HFRS. Hence, we propose the addition of a rat derived Hantaviral antigen to the antigen screening panel as a means of improving the specificity of the detection methods. © 1994 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Sera from Dutch and Belgium individuals who suffered from nephropathia epidemica (NE), a mild form of haemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), were tested for the distribution of classes and subclasses of Hantavirus (HV)-specific antibodies at different times after the onset of the disease, with class- and subclass-specific Ig capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs). In the acute, early convalescent, and convalescent phases, predominantly specific IgA, IgM, and IgG3 antibodies were detected. Specific IgG2 antibodies were only detected at low levels in the early convalescent and convalescent phases. In the late convalescent phase specific IgG1 and IgG3 antibodies were found, whereas in the late postconvalescent phase only specific IgG1 antibodies proved to be present. Specific IgG4 antibodies were not detected in any of the respective phases. These data show that the simultaneous determination of classes and subclasses of HV specific serum antibodies allows the estimation of the time elapsed after the onset of NE.

An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was developed for the quantification of serum antibodies against group-specific epitopes of the glycoproteins (G1, G2) and nucleoprotein (NP) of the genus Hantavirus. This assay was used to study the kinetics of the development of serum antibodies after natural infection with Puumala-like virus in humans. To this end a panel of 34 serum samples collected from individuals at different times after natural infection was tested by the ELISA. The samples were also tested for specific IgM and IgG levels against Puumala-like virus, which provided confirmatory data about the presumed timing of infection. It was shown that serum antibodies against the G1 epitope were present in the acute and early convalescent period just before antibodies to the NP epitope could be demonstrated. In contrast, antibodies to two G2 epitopes were present not earlier than in the convalescent and late convalescent period. Since all these categories of antibodies seem to persist for long periods, antibodies against the G1 epitope and the NP epitope may be of specific diagnostic value. Furthermore, levels of G1-specific antibodies and antibodies to either NP or G2 may allow estimation of the time elapsed following initial infection.

SYNOPSIS. The family Glenodiniaceae is abolished because advances in axenic culture and microscopy invalidate its original description. Its 3 genera are removed to the Peridiniaceae. Taxonomic criteria of families and genera concerned are discussed, and morphological studies of Glenodinium foliaceum under phase-contrast and polarization microscopy are reported and illustrated by photomicrographs. Evidence for G. foliaceum being a species intermediate between freshwater and marine dinoflagellates came from morphological and physiological studies. G. foliaceum responded to both inorganic and organic PO4 and NO3 sources. NH4 was toxic. Urea toxicity was due to breakdown of urea on autoclaving. Methionine was not utilized. Proline was toxic. B12 was essential. G. foliaceum culture characteristics and polysaccharide production are reported.