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Abstract Esophageal cancer (EC) and gastric cancer (GC) are fatal cancers with a relatively late age of onset. Age is a negative risk factor for survival in many cancers and our aim was to analyze age‐specific survival in EC and GC using the recently updated NORDCAN database. NORDCAN data originate from the Danish, Finnish, Norwegian, and Swedish nationwide cancer registries covering years 1972 through 2021 inviting for comparison of 50‐year survival trends between the countries. Relative 1‐ and 5‐year survival and 5/1‐year conditional survival (i.e., survival in those who were alive in Year 1 to survive additional 4 years) were analyzed. Survival in EC showed large gains for patients below age 80 years, 5‐year survival in Norwegian men reaching 30% and in women over 30% but for 80–89 year old survival remained at 10%. In contrast, hardly any gain was seen among the 80–89 year patients for 1‐year survival and small gains in 5 year and 5/1‐year survival. Survival gaps between age‐groups increased over time. For GC there was also a clear age‐related negative survival gradient but the survival gaps between the age groups did not widen over time; Norwegian male and female 5‐year survival for 80–89 year old was about 20%. The age‐specific survival difference in GC arose in Year 1 and did not essentially increase in 5‐year survival. While there were differences in survival improvements between the countries, poor survival of the 80–89 year old patients was shared by all of them. To conclude, survival has improved steadily in younger GC and EC patients in most Nordic countries. While the 80–89 year old population accounts for nearly a quarter of all patients and their poor survival depressed overall survival, which can therefore be increased further by improving diagnostics, treatment and care of elderly EC and GC patients.

Abstract Backround We wanted to characterize conditional survival in prostate cancer (PC) in Sweden around and after 2005 when the vast increase in incidence due to the opportunistic testing for prostate specific antigen (PSA) culminated. We hypothesize that analyzing survival data during that time period may help interpret survival trends. We focus on stage‐specific analysis using conditional survival in order to define the periods when deaths most commonly occurred. Methods Data on PC patients were obtained from the Swedish cancer registry for analysis of 1‐, 2.5‐ and 5‐year relative survival and conditional relative survival between years 2004 and 2018. Tumor‐node‐metastatic stage classification at diagnosis was used to specify survival. Results Small improvements were observed in stage‐ and age‐related relative survival duriring the study period. Applying conditional relative survival showed that survival in stage T3 up to 2.5 years was better than survival between years 2.5 and 5. Survival in stage T4 was approximately equal in the first and the subsequent 2.5‐year period. For M1, the first 2.5 year survival period was worse than the subsequent one. The proportion of high risk and M1 disease in old patients (80+ years) remained very high and their survival improved only modestly. Conclusions The data indicate that M1 metastases kill more patients in the first 2.5 years than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis; T4 deaths are equal in the two periods, and in T3 mortality in the first 2.5‐year period is lower than between years 2.5 and 5 after diagnosis. Conditional survival could be applied to explore critical survival periods even past 5 years after diagnoses and to monitor success in novel diagnostic and treatment practices. Improvement of survival in elderly patients may require clinical input.

Abstract Background Survival in breast cancer (BC) has developed favorably but late recurrences are still a problem. Methods We model survival data from the NORDCAN database and analyze 1‐, 5‐, and 10‐year relative survival and 5/1‐ and 10/5‐year conditional survival in BC from Denmark (DK), Finland (FI), Norway (NO), and Sweden (SE) between 1971 and 2020. Conditional survival measures survival in those who had survived year 1 to reach year 5 (5/1), or in those who had survived year 5 to reach year 10 (10/5). Results Almost all survival metrics were best for SE but survival in all countries improved in the course of time approaching the SE levels which were 98.3% for 1‐year, 92.3% for 5‐year, and 87.8% for 10‐year survival. Conditional 10/5‐year survival, covering 5 years, was better than 5/1‐year survival, covering 4 years. A contributing factor is most likely the high rate of recurrence in period 2–5 years. The difference was observed for all countries but for DK 10/5‐year survival approached 1‐year survival and for NO and SE 10/5‐year survival was only barely better than 5/1‐year survival. The explanation to this was the excellent 10/5‐year survival in DK compared to SE and particularly to NO. Literature search suggested that the reason for the relatively low 10/5‐year survival in NO might be stagnant survival development in old patients. Conclusions We assume that late mortality is critically limiting survival in BC and either interference with the late metastatic process or effective treatment will be key to future improvements in BC survival.

Abstract Background Cancers of the head and neck (HN) are heterogeneous tumors with incidence rates varying globally. In Northern Europe oral and oropharyngeal cancers are the most common individual types. Survival for HN varies by individual tumor type but for most of them survival trends are not well known over extended periods of time. Methods Data for a retrospective survival study were obtained for Danish, Finnish, Norwegian, and Swedish patients from the NORDCAN database from 1971 to 2020. Relative 1‐ and 5‐year survival rates and 5/1‐year conditional survival for years 2–5 were calculated. Results Both 1‐ and 5‐year survival improved for all HN cancers but only marginally for laryngeal cancer. For the other cancers a 50‐year increase in 5‐year survival was about 30% units for nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers, 20% units for oral cancer and somewhat less for hypopharyngeal cancer. Conclusions 5‐year survival reached about 65% for all HN cancers, except for hypopharyngeal cancer (30%). Human papilloma virus infection is becoming a dominant risk factor for the rapidly increasing oropharyngeal cancer, the prevention of which needs to emphasize oral sex as a route of infection.