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Progress on the nutrition Sustainable Development Goals has been slow. More attention is needed on the ‘sustainable’ part, focused on impact lasting beyond programme implementation. To determine sustained impact of a multisectoral nutrition intervention that provided water, sanitation, hygiene, livelihood, health and nutrition support (2013–2015) in eastern Chad, we utilize longitudinal household data collected 2 years (2017) after the intervention ended. Between 2013 and 2015, children (6–59 months) in the multisectoral intervention were less likely to be severely wasted, underweight and had a higher weight‐for‐height z‐score (WHZ) compared with the control. To measure sustained programme impact, we use data on six nutrition indicators from 517 children between 2015 and 2017. We ran three models: a generalized linear model on cross‐sectional child cohorts; a mixed‐effects model on household panel data; and a mixed‐effects model on child panel data. For children who were born during the programme, we saw significant improvement in underweight, weight for age z‐scores (WAZs) and height‐for‐age z‐scores (HAZs). Boys 6–23 months born after the end of the programme, on the other hand, were significantly more likely to be underweight or wasted and had lower WHZ and WAZ compared with boys born during the programme and girls born during and after the programme. Corresponding to the literature from sub‐Saharan Africa, boys appear to be more vulnerable to malnutrition, which might be why they are more sensitive to programme cessation. Future monitoring, evaluations and research need to consider impact sustainability and that it might not be homogeneous across age and gender.

OBJECTIVE: To describe spatial and temporal profiles of RTIs on different road networks in Vellore district of southern India. METHODS: Using the information in the police maintained First Information Reports (FIR), daily time series of RTI counts were created and temporal characteristics were analyzed with respect to the vehicle, road types and time of the day for the period January 2005 to May 2007. Daily incidence and trend of RTIs were estimated using a Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS: Of the reported 3262 RTIs, 52% had occurred on the National Highway (NH). The overall RTI rate on the NH was 8.8/100,000 vehicles per day with significantly higher pedestrian involvement. The mean numbers of RTIs were significantly higher on weekends. 13% of all RTIs were associated with fatalities. Hotspots are major town junctions and RTI rates differ over different stretches of the NH. CONCLUSION: In India, FIR's form a valuable source of RTI information. Information on different vehicle profile, RTI patterns, and their spatial and temporal trends can be used by administrators to devise effective strategies for RTI prevention by concentrating on the high-risk areas, thereby optimizing the use of available personnel and resources. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. Language: en

Purpose To determine the cumulative worldwide incidence of infectious endophthalmitis and associated vision loss after Boston keratoprosthesis (B-KPro) Type I/II implantation and to propose both safe and inexpensive prophylactic antibiotic regimens. Methods Two retrospective methods were used to determine the incidence, visual outcomes and aetiologies of infectious endophthalmitis associated with the B-KPro divided per decade: (i) systematic review of the literature from 1990 through January 2013 and (ii) a surveillance survey sent to all surgeons who implanted B-KPros through 2010 with 1-year minimum follow-up. In addition, a single-Boston surgeon 20-year experience was examined. Results From 1990 through 2010, there were 4729 B-KPros implanted worldwide by 209 U.S. surgeons and 159 international surgeons. The endophthalmitis cumulative mean incidence declined from 12% during its first decade of use to about 3% during its second decade in the Unites States and about 5% internationally during the second decade. There remains a large incidence range both in the United States (1–12.5%) and internationally (up to 17%). Poor compliance with daily topical antibiotics is an important risk factor. While Gram-positive organisms remained dominant, fungal infections emerged during the second decade. Conclusions Daily prophylactic topical antibiotics have dramatically reduced the endophthalmitis incidence. Although Gram-positive organisms are the most common aetiology, antimicrobials must be inclusive of Gram-negative organisms. Selection of prophylactic regimens should be tailored to local antibiotic susceptibility patterns, be cost-effective, and should not promote the emergence of antimicrobial resistance. An example of a broad-spectrum, low-cost prophylactic option for non-autoimmune patients includes trimethoprim/polymyxinB once daily.

Objectives This study was designed to develop food and liquid cariogenicity indices and to preliminarily test their utility using dietary data from a study of children with and without severe early childhood caries (S-ECC), defined as 3 + smooth surface carious lesions, including at least one pulpally involved tooth. Methods Data were collected in a diverse cohort of low-income preschool-aged children made up of 454 children with S-ECC and 429 caries-free children who presented for care at pediatric dental clinics in Washington, DC, Columbus, OH, and Cincinnati, OH. The cariogenicity indices were used to score dietary data from a Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) and a 24-hour recall (24HR). Results There were no statistically significant differences in mean food cariogenicity scores between groups. The liquid cariogenicity score was higher in the S-ECC group as compared with caries-free children (24HR: 5.28 versus 4.66, respectively, P

OBJECTIVES: To assess how influenza vaccination coverage in children is related to pneumonia and influenza (PI an exponential acceleration in the P&I rates with age was observed for each influenza season. State- and season-specific P&I rate accelerations were regressed against the percentage of vaccinated children, older adults, or both using mixed effects models. SETTING: U.S. population, 2002 to 2006. PARTICIPANTS: U.S. population aged 65 and older. MEASUREMENTS: State-level influenza annual vaccination coverage data in children and older adults were obtained from the National Immunization Survey and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, respectively. RESULTS: Child influenza vaccination coverage was negatively associated with age acceleration in P&I, whereas influenza vaccination in the older adults themselves was not significantly associated with P&I in older adults. CONCLUSION: Vaccination of children against influenza may induce herd immunity against influenza for older adults and has the potential to be more beneficial to older adults than the existing policy of preventing influenza by vaccinating older adults themselves.

Please cite this paper as: Lofgren et al. (2010) Disproportional effects in populations of concern for pandemic influenza: insights from seasonal epidemics in Wisconsin, 1967–2004. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 4(4), 205–212. Background Influenza infections pose a serious burden of illness in the United States. We explored age, influenza strains, and seasonal epidemic curves in relation to influenza-associated mortality. Methods The state of Wisconsin death records for the years 1967–2004 were analyzed for three distinct populations: children, general population, and elderly. Yearly parameters of duration, intensity, and peak timing were obtained from Annual Harmonic Regression coefficients. Results Overall, elderly had the highest rate and intensity of influenza mortality. The children and infant subpopulations showed an earlier and wider range in duration of peak timing than elderly. During A/Hong Kong/1/68 pandemic years, the elderly subpopulation showed no change in mortality rates while a sharp increase was observed for the children and infant subpopulations. In epidemic years such as 1966–1969, children and infants showed a dramatic decrease in the severity of influenza outbreaks over time. The elderly had increased baseline mortality in years (1986–1987) where predominant strain was characterized as A/Singapore/6/86. Conclusions Our findings indicate that the younger populations may have benefited from the lack of a major shift in viral strains for a number of decades. Furthermore, we demonstrate considerable heterogeneity in the spread of seasonal influenza across age categories, with implications both for the modeling of influenza seasonality, risk assessment, and effective distribution and timing of vaccine and prophylactic interventions.

OBJECTIVES: To compare the demographic and geographic patterns of pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalizations in older adults with dementia with those of the U.S. population and to examine the relationship between healthcare accessibility and P&I. DESIGN: Observational study using historical medical claims from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) and CMS records supplemented with information derived from other large national sources. SETTING: Retrospective analysis of medical records uniformly collected over a 5-year period with comprehensive national coverage. PARTICIPANTS: A study population representative of more than 95% of all people aged 65 and older residing in the continental United States. MEASUREMENTS: Six million two hundred seventy-seven thousand six hundred eighty-four records of P&I between 1998 and 2002 were abstracted, and county-specific outcomes for hospitalization rates of P&I, mean length of hospital stay, and percentage of deaths occurring in a hospital setting were estimated. Associations with county-specific elderly population density, percentage of nursing home residents, median household income per capita, and rurality index were assessed. RESULTS: Rural and poor counties had the highest rate of P&I and percentage of influenza. Patients with dementia had a lower frequency of influenza diagnosis, a shorter length of hospital stay, and 1.5 times as high a rate of death as the national average. CONCLUSION: The results suggest strong disparities in healthcare practices in rural locations and vulnerable populations; infrastructure, proximity, and access to healthcare are significant predictors of influenza morbidity and mortality. These findings have important implications for influenza vaccination, testing, and treatment policies and practices targeting the growing fraction of patients with cognitive impairment.

Extreme weather affects the timing and intensity of infectious outbreaks, the resurgence and redistribution of infections, and it causes disturbances in human-environment interactions. Environmental stressors with high thermoregulatory demands require susceptible populations to undergo physiological adaptive processes potentially compromising immune function and increasing susceptibility to infection. In assessing associations between environmental exposures and infectious diseases, failure to account for a latent period between time of exposure and time of disease manifestation may lead to severe underestimation of the effects. In a population, health effects of an episode of exposure are distributed over a range of time lags. To consider such time-distributed lags is a challenging task given that the length of a latent period varies from hours to months and depends on the type of pathogen, individual susceptibility to the pathogen, dose of exposure, route of transmission, and many other factors. The two main objectives of this communication are to introduce an approach to modeling time-distributed effect of exposures to infection cases and to demonstrate this approach in an analysis of the association between high ambient temperature and daily incidence of enterically transmitted infections. The study is supplemented with extensive simulations to examine model sensitivity to response magnitude, exposure frequency, and extent of latent period.

We propose an extension of the Harezlak and Heckman (J. Comput. Graph. Statist. 2001; 10(4): 713-729) test for detecting local extrema to the longitudinal data setting. We use penalized spline regression techniques (Statist. Sci. 1996; 11:89-102) to provide a computationally efficient method of testing for relatively large data sets. We estimate the p-values of our test, LongCriSP, with a smoothed bootstrap. Our simulation studies indicate that the test is generally conservative and has power exceeding 70 per cent at the alpha = 0.1 nominal level in most considered settings. Finally, we apply our testing procedure to the longitudinal measurements of body mass index of former prisoners of war in Vietnam and conclude that the mean population curve exhibits non-monotone behaviour.

Daily disease monitoring via a public health surveillance system provides valuable information on population risks. Efficient statistical tools for early detection of rapid changes in the disease incidence are a must for modern surveillance. The need for statistical tools for early detection of outbreaks that are not based on historical information is apparent. A system is discussed for monitoring cases of infections with a view to early detection of outbreaks and to forecasting the extent of detected outbreaks. We propose a set of adaptive algorithms for early outbreak detection that does not rely on extensive historical recording. We also include knowledge of infection disease epidemiology into forecasts. To demonstrate this system we use data from the largest water-borne outbreak of cryptosporidiosis, which occurred in Milwaukee in 1993. Historical data are smoothed using a loess-type smoother. Upon receipt of a new datum, the smoothing is updated and estimates are made of the first two derivatives of the smooth curve, and these are used for near-term forecasting. Recent data and the near-term forecasts are used to compute a color-coded warning index, which quantify the level of concern. The algorithms for computing the warning index have been designed to balance Type I errors (false prediction of an epidemic) and Type II errors (failure to correctly predict an epidemic). If the warning index signals a sufficiently high probability of an epidemic, then a forecast of the possible size of the outbreak is made. This longer term forecast is made by fitting a ‘signature’ curve to the available data. The effectiveness of the forecast depends upon the extent to which the signature curve captures the shape of outbreaks of the infection under consideration.

Objective: The longitudinal relationship between the consumption of energy-dense snack (EDS) foods and relative weight change during adolescence is uncertain. Using data from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Growth and Development Study, the current analysis was undertaken to examine the longitudinal relationship of EDS food intake with relative weight status and percentage body fat and to examine how EDS food consumption is related to television viewing. Research Methods and Procedures: One hundred ninety-six nonobese premenarcheal girls 8 to 12 years old were enrolled between 1990 and 1993 and followed until 4 years after menarche. At each annual follow-up visit, data were collected on percentage body fat (%BF), BMI z score, and dietary intake. Categories of EDS foods considered were baked goods, ice cream, chips, sugar-sweetened soda, and candy. Results: At study entry, girls had a mean ± SD BMI z score of −0.27 ± 0.89, consumed 2.3 ± 1.7 servings of EDS foods per day, and consumed 15.7 ± 8.1% of daily calories from EDS foods. Linear mixed effects modeling indicated no relationship between BMI z score or %BF and total EDS food consumption. Soda was the only EDS food that was significantly related to BMI z score over the 10-year study period, but it was not related to %BF. In addition, a significant, positive relationship was observed between EDS food consumption and television viewing. Discussion: In this cohort of initially nonobese girls, overall EDS food consumption does not seem to influence weight status or fatness change over the adolescent period.

Objective: To determine a possible link between herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV) and infertility. Method: A specifically designed polymerase chain reaction with nested primers, was developed and used to test for HSV in 153 men and 20 women attending an infertility clinic. Results: HSV DNA was detected in 37 (24%) out of 153 semen samples and in 11 (55%) out of 20 menstrual blood samples. However, HSV DNA (0%) was not detected in the semen of 16 males with children. A significant association between the evidence for infertility and an HSV positive test was observed in men (Fisher's exact test, p = 0.024), and a stronger effect was found in females after failed in vitro fertilization (Fisher's exact test p = 0.0086). Conclusion: This is the first report of the detection of herpes simplex virus DNA in semen and menstrual blood. Encouraging preliminary results justify antiviral therapy in case of a positive test.