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Background The treatment of stroke has been undergoing rapid changes. As treatment options progress, prediction of those under risk for complications becomes more important. Available models have, however, frequently been built based on data no longer representative of today's care, in particular with respect to acute stroke management. Our aim was to build and validate prediction models for 4 clinically important, severe outcomes after stroke. Methods and Results We used German registry data from 152 710 patients with acute ischemic stroke obtained in 2016 (development) and 2017 (validation). We took into account potential predictors that were available at admission and focused on in-hospital mortality, intracranial mass effect, secondary intracerebral hemorrhage, and deep vein thrombosis as outcomes. Validation cohort prediction and calibration performances were assessed using the following 4 statistical approaches: logistic regression with backward selection, l1-regularized logistic regression, k-nearest neighbor, and gradient boosting classifier. In-hospital mortality and intracranial mass effects could be predicted with high accuracy (both areas under the curve, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.90-0.90]), whereas the areas under the curve for intracerebral hemorrhage (0.80 [95% CI, 0.80-0.80]) and deep vein thrombosis (0.73 [95% CI, 0.73-0.73]) were considerably lower. Stroke severity was the overall most important predictor. Models based on gradient boosting achieved better performances than those based on logistic regression for all outcomes. However, area under the curve estimates differed by a maximum of 0.02. Conclusions We validated prediction models for 4 severe outcomes after acute ischemic stroke based on routinely collected, recent clinical data. Model performance was superior to previously proposed approaches. These predictions may help to identify patients at risk early after stroke and thus facilitate an individualized level of care.

The aim of the current study was to explore the whole-brain dynamic functional connectivity patterns in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients and their relation to short and long-term stroke severity. We investigated resting-state functional MRI-based dynamic functional connectivity of 41 AIS patients two to five days after symptom onset. Re-occurring dynamic connectivity configurations were obtained using a sliding window approach and k-means clustering. We evaluated differences in dynamic patterns between three NIHSS-stroke severity defined groups (mildly, moderately, and severely affected patients). Furthermore, we built Bayesian hierarchical models to evaluate the predictive capacity of dynamic connectivity and examine the interrelation with clinical measures, such as white matter hyperintensity lesions. Finally, we established correlation analyses between dynamic connectivity and AIS severity as well as 90-day neurological recovery (Delta NIHSS). We identified three distinct dynamic connectivity configurations acutely post-stroke. More severely affected patients spent significantly more time in a configuration that was characterized by particularly strong connectivity and isolated processing of functional brain domains (three-level ANOVA: p < .05, post hoc t tests: p < .05, FDR-corrected). Configuration-specific time estimates possessed predictive capacity of stroke severity in addition to the one of clinical measures. Recovery, as indexed by the realized change of the NIHSS over time, was significantly linked to the dynamic connectivity between bilateral intraparietal lobule and left angular gyrus (Pearson's r = -.68, p = .003, FDR-corrected). Our findings demonstrate transiently increased isolated information processing in multiple functional domains in case of severe AIS. Dynamic connectivity involving default mode network components significantly correlated with recovery in the first 3 months poststroke.