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Conservation effectiveness is influenced by socio-political context, a reality overlooked by traditional prioritisation schemes that use only measures of biological value and threat when deciding where to invest limited conservation resources. We combined ecological and socio-political criteria to illuminate options for prioritising investment in African wild dog Lycaon pictus conservation among countries and subpopulations. Countries were assigned scores for conservation priority (based on their wild dog populations) and conservation likelihood (based on their governance quality and other indicators of the likelihood of effective conservation action for wild dogs). Seven of the 19 wild dog countries scored above the median value for both priority and likelihood and supported 70% of the total wild dog population. Investment in these ‘higher priority, higher-likelihood’ countries may offer the greatest returns on conservation investment. The intention of this study is not, however, to be prescriptive, nor to suggest abandoning disadvantaged countries, but to provide a tool for understanding and managing trade-offs between where conservation is most needed for wild dogs and where it is most feasible. The prioritisation framework presented in this paper may easily and profitably be applied to other taxa, extending the scope of our results.

Conservation resources are limited, necessitating prioritization of species and locations for action. Most prioritization approaches are based solely on biologically relevant characteristics of taxa or areas and ignore geopolitical realities. Doing so risks a poor return on conservation investment due to nonbiological factors, such as economic or political instability. We considered felids, a taxon which attracts intense conservation attention, to demonstrate a new approach that incorporates both intrinsic species traits and geopolitical characteristics of countries. We developed conservation priority scores for wild felids based on their International Union for Conservation of Nature status, body mass, habitat, range within protected area, evolutionary distinctiveness, and conservation umbrella potential. We used published data on governance, economics and welfare, human population pressures, and conservation policy to assign conservation-likelihood scores to 142 felid-hosting countries. We identified 71 countries as high priorities (above median) for felid conservation. These countries collectively encompassed all 36 felid species and supported an average of 96% of each species' range. Of these countries, 60.6% had below-average conservation-likelihood scores, which indicated these countries are relatively risky conservation investments. Governance was the most common factor limiting conservation likelihood. It was the major contributor to below-median likelihood scores for 62.5% of the 32 felid species occurring in lower-likelihood countries. Governance was followed by economics for which scores were below median for 25% of these species. An average of 58% of species' ranges occurred in 43 higher-priority lower-likelihood countries. Human population pressure was second to governance as a limiting factor when accounting for percentage of species' ranges in each country. As conservation likelihood decreases, it will be increasingly important to identify relevant geopolitical limitations and tailor conservation strategies accordingly. Our analysis provides an objective framework for biodiversity conservation action planning. Our results highlight not only which species most urgently require conservation action and which countries should be prioritized for such action, but also the diverse constraints which must be overcome to maximize long-term success.

Aim Defaunation, the emptying of ecosystems of fauna, has been highlighted as a likely threat to the conservation of carnivores but the magnitude of this threat has yet to be quantified. We quantify the potential threat defaunation presents to wild felids. Methods For the 32 wild felids that feed primarily on mammals, we used 5330 prey records from 237 published sources to compile a new diet dataset, FelidDIET. This dataset was used to determine the relative importance of the mammalian species as prey for each felid. These data were used to quantify the relationship between felid and prey species-richness, and to estimate the potential threat to wild felids from the loss of their prey. Results Our analyses reveal that models that include adjusted prey species-richness as a predictor of felid-richness out-perform those with less precise measures of prey-richness (potential prey-richness and total mammal-richness). This is true both when examined collectively or when split into those felids that prey upon large-bodied prey and those that prey upon small-bodied prey. For seven felid species, including six large felids (over 15kg), 33% or more of their primary prey-species are threatened. Of most concern is the Sunda clouded leopard Neofelis diardi, for which 66.0% of its primary prey-species are threatened. In total, 57.6% of large felids’ primary prey-species are threatened or declining, compared with 26.5% for small felids. Large felids are particularly vulnerable to primary prey decline in Indo-Malaya and East and Central Africa. Main conclusions Our findings indicate that imminent prey loss is likely to have substantial negative effects on large felids, many of which are already highly threatened. Considering the trophic cascades associated with large predators, the threat to large felids through the loss of prey diversity presents an ecosystem-scale threat.