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The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia’s economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia’s evolving economy. This paper discusses about the economic conditions of Indonesia for the year 2015. Emerging market assets rebounded in October 2015 after the sharp losses recorded in August and September, when the uncertainty about the Chinese economic slowdown and the U.S. interest rate outlook was particularly high. Despite a more favorable market sentiment, capital flows to emerging economies have remained weak and borrowing costs relatively high. In addition to tight financing conditions, Indonesia faced subdued external demand for its exports in the near term and persistently low commodity prices over the medium run. In 2015, fire in Indonesia cost nearly twice that of reconstruction following the 2004 tsunami in Aceh. Agriculture and forestry have sustained losses and damages in trillions. Sustained exposure to haze could also lead to the volcano effect, i.e., a decrease in plant productivity in the short term due to limited sun exposure and a deleterious effect on plant physiology and photosynthesis. The recurring nature of Indonesia’s fire crisis is of particular concern. Another potential step in Indonesia’s new reform process was the country’s signaling its intention to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in the near future. Whether membership materializes or not, the agreement is likely to have a limited impact on trade, because import tariffs in member countries are already low and Indonesia has trade agreements with most of them.

The percentage of smallholders with access to finance is equally difficult to quantify. According to estimates, even promising approaches to expanding smallholder lending, such as value chain finance, are reaching fewer than 10 percent of smallholders, primarily those in well-established value chains dedicated to higher value cash crops. International Finance Corporation (IFC) has been engaged for several years in learning efforts through diverse partnerships to obtain insights into the challenges of agricultural finance. The evidence of microfinance institution (MFI) involvement in financing commercial and semi-commercial smallholders remains anecdotal and lacks specifics on what makes MFI lending to these segments feasible, and what restricts their reach and effectiveness. This IFC study aims to identify and disseminate lessons emerging from the work of MFIs that have implemented agricultural operations targeting agricultural smallholders in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) to support replication and expansion of scalable approaches. Through this research, IFC seeks to understand the motivations of MFIs that venture into agricultural finance, how the products they offer have been structured, and how they were implemented, with a specific focus on agricultural finance programs, and products that are designed for smallholders in loose value chains and non-commercial (subsistence) farmers.

This is the final consolidated report of an extensive program to assess the financial performance and capacity building needs of the UPK Revolving Loan Funds under the PNPM Mandiri project. As explained in the report, the assessment program covered 508 rural and urban UPKs in the provinces of Central Java, Yogyakarta, Nusa Tenggara Timor and West Sumatra. The aim was to cover 30 percent of rural UPK RLFs in these four provinces and 10 percent of the urban UPKs in order to establish the achievements and determine areas of improvement to enable these UPKs to provide a better service to the low income families in their operational areas. This report covers all 267 rural UPK RLFs and 241 urban UPKs identified for the purpose in the four provinces.

This technical note on access to finance addresses six questions: 1) what is the access to and use of financial services in the Philippines, how does it vary, and how does it compare to other countries? 2) What financial services are available to different market segments? 3) How do different categories of financial institutions contribute to outreach, and what is their potential to expand outreach? 4) How does the regulatory environment support access to finance? 5) What financial infrastructure is available to make credit decisions? 6) What are the results of government policies or programs to promote access to financial services? The note concludes with recommendations to improve access to finance. An estimated 30 percent of Filipinos use formal financial services. This is lower than the East Asia region average. Access to finance has improved since the 2002 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The provision of financial services to low-income individuals has expanded. The Philippines has received international recognition for its favorable regulatory policies to promote pioneering use of mobile payments technology and its microfinance regulatory framework.