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The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy on the outlook for Lebanon. This report discusses the following: a) Spillovers from the Syrian conflict are imposing a heavy toll on Lebanon’s economy which, under an unchanged environment, is projected to grow by 1.5 percent in both 2013 and 2014. b) The economic slowdown and domestic and regional turmoil also affected banking activity. c) After a strong fiscal expansion in 2012, the fiscal deficit continues to widen in 2013, to a large extent driven by the spillovers from the Syrian conflict. d) The balance of payments strengthened during the first seven months of 2013, in part due to the weakening economic activity and sustained capital inflows. e) The conflict in Syria is having a large, negative, and rapidly growing impact on Lebanon’s economy, its social fabric, and its public services (Special Focus).

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Lebanon. The political standoff combined with an escalating Syrian conflict hampered growth in 2012, and is projected to continue doing so through the first half of 2013. Economic growth in 2012 is estimated to have decelerated to 1.4 percent due to a weak second half of 2012 following a downturn in the security situation. The major fiscal expansion that took place in 2012 is creating fiscal challenges for 2013, particularly in the context of a promised increase in public salaries. The fiscal expansion, measured by the change in the central government s primary fiscal balance, reached a staggering 4.6 percentage points of GDP in 2012. The overall fiscal deficit reached 9.4 percent of GDP in 2012. Inflationary pressures rose despite tepid economic activity. Headline inflation accelerated notably in the second half of 2012. Core inflation has also been on an upward trend, reaching 5.3 percent by end-2012. Domestically, inflationary pressures can primarily be attributed to (i) increases in disposable income in early 2012 due to the increase in the minimum wage and public sector salaries cost of living adjustment; and (ii) a cumulative output gap that remains positive following above-potential growth in 2007-2010. The conflict in Syria, a country that is closely linked, both through historical, social and economic ties to Lebanon has created a humanitarian crisis of enormous scale. While Lebanon is to be commended for its openness to Syrian refugees, the conflict is severely and negatively impacting the Lebanese economy. The largest impact arises through the insecurity and uncertainty spillovers and touches at the heart of Lebanon s societal fabric.

The stalemate between domestic political forces continues to impede reforms while the ongoing Syrian conflict is imposing a security, political, and economic toll on Lebanon. The stalemate in the executive and legislative branches of government remains an impediment to reforms. Important bills, regulations and appointments are still pending in cabinet and Parliament. This deadlock could well last until the June 2013 Parliamentary elections. The Syrian crisis is fueling political divide among sectarian lines in Lebanon, leading to sporadic violence incidents across the country. These incidents have materially impacted the economy, with sectors such as tourism strongly affected. Politically, the turmoil has sparked social unrest and overshadowed the reform drive. To tackle the situation, the government devised a minimum political understanding to restore order in the country. Political backing for a large security operation has also been given; results have yet to fully materialize. The fiscal deficit and public debt positions remain major challenges for the Lebanese economy. The fiscal deficit deteriorated somewhat during the first half of the year. Notwithstanding this slight widening of the fiscal balance, public debt continues its recent downward trend. Rising international commodity prices and the Syrian crisis are adding further pressure on both trade and current account deficits.