1. Statistical hypothesis testing using sports data
- Author
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Černý, Jakub, Malá, Ivana, and Čabla, Adam
- Subjects
football ,testování statistických hypotéz ,fotbal ,statistical hypothesis testing ,střední čtvercová chyba ,mean squared error - Abstract
This bachelor thesis is based on empirical study of betting odds of six world-wide betting offices. Using statistical hypothesis testing it tests similarity among offices predictions of five best football leagues and whether the predictions correspond with final results of these games. It has been demonstrated that betting offices predict matches identically but predictions does not correspond with final results. In the second part of this paper, the betting offices are experimentally treated as bettors and their return on investment is monitored. From the comparison of returns and mean squared error of predictions, betting offices Bet365 and BetVictor can be considered as those with the best predictions. Analysis of Fortel servis betting diary has shown that using betting advisory service can lead to long-term profits. It is a proof that betting offices can be beaten over a long time which was also one of the objectives of this paper.
- Published
- 2015