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Research was undertaken in the indigenous tussock grasslands of South Island of New Zealand in order to quantify past rates of conversion to agricultural land use and to develop vulnerability models to predict future conversion spatially and temporally. The study area was delineated using the median spectral reflectance of indigenous grasslands and included the largest extent of unprotected contiguous grasslands concentrated in the central South Island. Conversion from indigenous grasslands to a non-indigenous cover was quantified by comparative mapping over three intervals (1840-1990, 1990-2001, and 2001-2008). The basic premise in using satellite imagery to detect changes in land-use/cover is that these are revealed by changes in spectral signature. However, New Zealand’s indigenous and non-indigenous grasslands have overlapping spectral trajectories and high inter-annual variability, therefore contextual information was needed in order accurately map conversion from indigenous grassland cover to exotic pasture. Within the study area around the time of European settlement (1840) there were approximately 3.3 million hectares of indigenous grasslands. Between 1840 and 1990 around 1 million hectares of indigenous grasslands were converted to a non-indigenous cover. The extent of conversion during the preceding time period (1990-2008) was approximately 71,261 ha, of which 72% was converted to pasture and cropland and the remaining 28% to mining, urban settlements and exotic forestry. Although the overall rate of grassland conversion decreased relative to the period of European settlement and 1990, the proportion of remaining indigenous grasslands converted each year increased. Almost two-thirds of post-1990 conversion has occurred in environments with less than 30% indigenous cover remaining, and much is in land classified as non-arable with moderate to extreme limitations to crop, pasture and forestry growth. To assess the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of

Research was undertaken in the indigenous tussock grasslands of South Island of New Zealand in order to quantify past rates of conversion to agricultural land use and to develop vulnerability models to predict future conversion spatially and temporally. The study area was delineated using the median spectral reflectance of indigenous grasslands and included the largest extent of unprotected contiguous grasslands concentrated in the central South Island. Conversion from indigenous grasslands to a non-indigenous cover was quantified by comparative mapping over three intervals (1840-1990, 1990-2001, and 2001-2008). The basic premise in using satellite imagery to detect changes in land-use/cover is that these are revealed by changes in spectral signature. However, New Zealand’s indigenous and non-indigenous grasslands have overlapping spectral trajectories and high inter-annual variability, therefore contextual information was needed in order accurately map conversion from indigenous grassland cover to exotic pasture. Within the study area around the time of European settlement (1840) there were approximately 3.3 million hectares of indigenous grasslands. Between 1840 and 1990 around 1 million hectares of indigenous grasslands were converted to a non-indigenous cover. The extent of conversion during the preceding time period (1990-2008) was approximately 71,261 ha, of which 72% was converted to pasture and cropland and the remaining 28% to mining, urban settlements and exotic forestry. Although the overall rate of grassland conversion decreased relative to the period of European settlement and 1990, the proportion of remaining indigenous grasslands converted each year increased. Almost two-thirds of post-1990 conversion has occurred in environments with less than 30% indigenous cover remaining, and much is in land classified as non-arable with moderate to extreme limitations to crop, pasture and forestry growth. To assess the relative vulnerability of remaining areas of