1. Volatility Model Choice for Sub-Saharan Frontier Equity Markets - A Markov Regime Switching Bayesian Approach
- Author
-
Nathaniel Howard and Carl H. Korkpoe
- Subjects
Heteroscedasticity ,lcsh:Management. Industrial management ,Markov chain ,Bayesian probability ,Statistics ,Equity (finance) ,Frontier Equity Markets ,Information Criteria ,Regime switching ,lcsh:Business ,Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo ,Frontier ,lcsh:HD28-70 ,Regime-Switching ,Economics ,Econometrics ,Business ,Volatility (finance) ,lcsh:HF5001-6182 ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
We adopt a granular approach to estimating the risk of equity returns in sub-Saharan African frontier equity markets under the assumption that, returns are influenced by developments in the underlying economy. Four countries were studied – Botswana, Ghana, Kenya and Nigeria. We found heterogeneity in the evolution of volatility across these markets and also that two-regime switching volatility models describe better the heteroscedastic returns generating processes in these markets using the deviance information criteria. We backtest the results to assess whether the models are a good fit for the data. We concluded that, the selected models are the most suitable for predicting the volatility of future returns in the markets studied.
- Published
- 2019