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2. Global, regional, and national age-sex specific mortality for 264 causes of death, 1980–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
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Estep, Kara, Petzold, Max, Negoi, Ionut, Horino, Masako, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Agrawal, Anurag, Takala, Jukka S., Irenso, Asnake Ararsa, Malekzadeh, Reza, Panda, Basant Kumar, Farzadfar, Farshad, Nichols, Emma, Hoy, Damian G., Mehata, Suresh, Maddison, Emilie R., Tsoi, Derrick, Awasthi, Ashish, Asayesh, Hamid, Montico, Marcella, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Criqui, Michael H., Pakhale, Smita, Vasankari, Tommi, Ermakov, Sergey P., Yotebieng, Marcel, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Degenhardt, Louisa, Dey, Subhojit, Gupta, Tanush, Nachega, Jean B., Millear, Anoushka, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa, Fullman, Nancy, Tortajada, Miguel, Paulson, Katherine, Leigh, James, Kumar, Pushpendra, Santos, Itamar S., Karimi, Seyed M., Shirude, Shreya, Ding, Eric L., Roth, Gregory A., Sheikhbahaei, Sara, Mahesh, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Majeed, Azeem, Bekele, Bayu Begashaw, Updike, Rachel, Jayaraman, Sudha P., Kassaw, Nigussie Assefa, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Postma, Maarten J., Nangia, Vinay, Henry, Nathaniel J., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Van Boven, Job F.M., Dandona, Rakhi, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Dandona, Lalit, Beuran, Mircea, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Lotufo, Paulo A., Troeger, Christopher, Cowie, Benjamin C., Arora, Megha, Campuzano, Julio Cesar, Topor-Madry, Roman, Salama, Joseph, Murray, Christopher J.L., Ciobanu, Liliana G., Liu, Yang, Molokhia, Mariam, Wallin, Mitchell T., Kivimaki, Mika, Rehm, Jürgen, Gold, Audra L., Shaikh, Masood Ali, Echko, Michelle, Taveira, Nuno, Meier, Toni, Alam, Khurshid, Gillum, Richard F., Roshandel, Gholamreza, Andersen, Hjalte H., Bensenor, Isabela M., Mountjoy-Venning, Clif, Papachristou, Christina, Barboza, Miguel A., Singh, Abhishek, Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel, Hankey, Graeme J., Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Sartorius, Benn, Koyanagi, Ai, Ong, Kanyin, Opio, John Nelson, Deiparine, Selina, Mohammadi, Alireza, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Bumgarner, Blair R., Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Lozano, Rafael, McGaughey, Madeline, Charlson, Fiona J., Kim, Daniel, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Subart, Michelle, Morozof, Chloe, Mengesha, Melkamu Merid, Undurraga, Eduardo A., Javanbakht, Mehdi, Temsah, Mohamad-Hani, Mooney, Meghan D., Kemmer, Laura, Tarawneh, Mohammed Rasoul, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Fischer, Florian, Plass, Dietrich, Cirillo, Massimo, Kosen, Soewarta, Zaidi, Zoubida, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Okoro, Anselm, Salomon, Joshua A., Ikeda, Chad, Liu, Patrick Y., Yaseri, Mehdi, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Gesesew, Hailay Abrha, Sahathevan, Ramesh, Aboyans, Victor, He, Fei, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Car, Josip, Carter, Austin, Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe, Cárdenas, Rosario, Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed, Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Majdzadeh, Reza, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Kinfu, Yohannes, Davletov, Kairat, Asgedom, Solomon W., Xiao, Qingyang, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Aiyar, Sneha, Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores, Radfar, Amir, Yaghoubi, Mohsen, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Shiri, Rahman, Sadat, Nafs, Thompson, Alex H., Zhang, Xueying, Pereira, David M., Dicker, Daniel, Jahanmehr, Nader, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Silpakit, Naris, Filip, Irina, Ma, Stefan, Markos, Desalegn, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Westerman, Ronny, Strub, Bryan, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Sorensen, Reed J.D., Nong, Vuong Minh, Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Shi, Peilin, Smith, David L., Kimokoti, Ruth W., Smith, Alison, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Faro, André, Weiss, Daniel J., Lan, Qing, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Ellingsen, Christian Lycke, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Barrero, Lope H., Gething, Peter W., Colombara, Danny, Johnson, Catherine O., Barquera, Simon, Alkaabi, Juma M., Deribew, Amare, Godwin, William W., Chibueze, Chioma Ezinne, Zodpey, Sanjay, Bell, Michelle L., Ärnlöv, Johan, Hammami, Mouhanad, Malhotra, Rajesh, Dargan, Paul I., Ammar, Walid, Santomauro, Damian, Bedi, Neeraj, Meretoja, Atte, Bennett, James R., Baune, Bernhard T., Alam, Noore, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Beghi, Ettore, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Furtado, Joao M., Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Lim, Stephen S., Kulikof, Xie Rachel, Finegold, Samuel, Lorkowski, Stefan, Naldi, Luigi, Kissoon, Niranjan, Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Bikbov, Boris, Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile, Steinke, Sabine, Naheed, Aliya, Shrime, Mark G., Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Mapoma, Chabila C., Schmidt, Maria Inês, Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Barac, Aleksandra, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Frank, Tahvi, Kasaeian, Amir, Memish, Ziad A., Milicevic, Milena M. Santric, Swaminathan, Soumya, Weintraub, Robert G., Sharma, Jayendra, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Gupta, Rajeev, Hay, Simon I., Hailu, Alemayehu Desalegne, Fraser, Maya, Leung, Janni, Fernandes, João C, Purcell, Caroline, Enayati, Ahmadali, Perico, Norberto, Wakayo, Tolassa, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, John, Denny, Cameron, Ewan, Strong, Mark, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sanabria, Juan Ramon, Schutte, Aletta E., Alam, Tahiya, Whiteford, Harvey A., Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rafay, Anwar, Lambert, Tea Lallukka Nkurunziza, Djalalinia, Shirin, Hoek, Hans W., Esteghamati, Alireza, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Thrift, Amanda G., Kawakami, Norito, Vos, Theo, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Fürst, Thomas, Jha, Vivekanand, Rokni, Mohammad Bagher, Nasher, Jamal T., Gebremichael, Delelegn Yilma, Muller, Kate, Kyu, Hmwe H., Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam, Sharma, Rajesh, Sur, Patrick J., Manguerra, Helena, Soneji, Samir, Lee, Paul H., Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Mruts, Kalayu Birhane, Lalloo, Ratilal, Hotez, Peter J., Amini, Erfan, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Pervaiz, Aslam, Osman, Majdi, Pletcher, Martin A., Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Sufyan, Muawiyyah Babale, Liu, Angela, Erskine, Holly E., Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B., Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Ansari, Hossein, Anwari, Palwasha, Cooper, Cyrus, Gupta, Vipin, Morawska, Lidia, Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi, Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Schneider, Ione J.C., Sagar, Rajesh, Androudi, Sofa, Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Srinivasan, Vinay, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Bourne, Rupert R.A., Weiderpass, Elisabete, Pigott, David M., Horita, Nobuyuki, Abbas, Kaja M., Karimkhani, Chante, Goldberg, Ellen M., Nascimento, Bruno Ramos, Menota, Bereket Gebremichael, Altirkawi, Khalid A., Kappe, Darya Li, Ray, Sarah E., Flaxman, Abraham D., Alsharif, Ubai, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Bisanzio, Donal, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Shahraz, Saeid, Ngunjiri, Josephine Wanjiku, Schwebel, David C., Jonas, Songhomitra, Das Neves, José, Abd-Allah, Foad, Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Sligar, Amber, Shiue, Ivy, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Harb, Hilda L., Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Ruhago, George Mugambage, Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw, Alla, François, Reiner, Robert C., Kievlan, Daniel, Marczak, Laurie B., Sepanlou, Sadaf G., De Courten, Barbora, Qorbani, Mostafa, Hambisa, Mitiku Teshome, Karch, André, Salamati, Payman, Safiri, Saeid, Whetter, Brian, Takahashi, Ken, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Kim, Yun Jin, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Wijeratne, Tissa, Levi, Miriam, Saadat, Soheil, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Hostiuc, Sorin, Zipkin, Ben, Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina Ayala, Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Gona, Philimon N., Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Wolfe, Charles D.A., Ronfani, Luca, Abbafati, Cristiana, Ali, Syed Danish, Xu, Gelin, McAlinden, Colm, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Liang, Xiaofeng, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Kabir, Zubair, Jonas, Jost B., Patton, George C., Pana, Adrian, Sykes, Bryan L., Shigematsu, Mika, Handal, Alexis J., Abera, Semaw Ferede, Nguyen, Minh, Yakob, Bereket, Patten, Scott B., Shackelford, Katya Anne, Nguyen, Cuong Tat, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Shey, Muki, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Ferrari, Alize J., Allebeck, Peter, Younis, Mustafa Z., Moraga, Paula, Mirarefn, Mojde, Sobaih, Badr H.A., Biadgilign, Sibhatu, Towbin, Jefrey Allen, Uthman, Olalekan A., Jürisson, Mikk, Abd El Razek, Mohammed Magdy, Ota, Erika, Rath, Goura Kishor, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Deribe, Kebede, Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz, Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Gouda, Hebe N., Cohen, Aaron J., Naghavi, Mohsen, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Noubiap, Jean Jacques N., Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Herteliu, Claudiu, Thomas, Katie E., Hamidi, Samer, Martopullo, Ira, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Doku, David Teye, She, Jun, Olagunju, Andrew Toyin, Li, Yongmei, Rankin, Zane, Tran, Bach Xuan, Zerfu, Taddese Alemu, Torre, Anna, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Casey, Daniel C., Gupta, Prakash C., Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alahdab, Fares, Berhane, Adugnaw, Larsson, Anders, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Foigt, Nataliya, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Xavier, Denis, Barregard, Lars, Woldeyes, Belete Getahun, Workicho, Abdulhalik, Giussani, Giorgia, Koul, Parvaiz A., Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Talongwa, Roberto Tchio, Soriano, Joan B., Oh, In-Hwan, Werdecker, Andrea, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L, Griswold, Max, Tyrovolas, Stefanos, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Dubey, Manisha, Sachdev, Perminder S., Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Safdarian, Mahdi, Rao, Puja C., Kahsay, Amaha, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Kumar, G. Anil, Morrison, Shane D., Monasta, Lorenzo, Haagsma, Juanita A., Truelsen, Thomas, Saf, Sare, Artaman, Al, Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Shields, Chloe, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Bienhof, Kelly, Ortiz, Alberto, Phillips, Michael Robert, Yano, Yuichiro, Hao, Yuantao, Kieling, Christian, Hancock, Jamie, Oren, Eyal, Shoman, Haitham, Pacella, Rosana E., Servan-Mori, Edson E., Polinder, Suzanne, Pinho, Christine, Steiner, Caitlyn, Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Yimam, Hassen Hamid, Vollset, Stein Emil, Schwendicke, Falk, Zegeye, Elias Asfaw, Anber, Nahla, Kadel, Rajendra, Hedayati, Mohammad T., Memiah, Peter, Gebre, Teshome, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Shamsipour, Mansour, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Béjot, Yannick, Huynh, Chantal, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Lopez, Alan D., Thamsuwan, Ornwipa, Sunguya, Bruno F., Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Pourmalek, Farshad, Paudel, Deepak, Miller, Ted R., Davitoiu, Dragos V., Lucas, Timothy C.D., Rezaei, Satar, Minnig, Shawn, Driscoll, Tim R., Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Thakur, Lodha, Rakesh, Hosgood, H. Dean, Schulhofer-Wohl, Sam, Kamal, Ritul, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Rawaf, Salman, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Bernabé, Eduardo, Mola, Glen Liddell D., Stein, Dan J., Bhatt, Samir, Steel, Nicholas, Smith, Mari, Rizwan, Bacha, Umar, Park, Eun-Kee, Hernandez, Julio C. Montañez, Woodbrook, Rachel, McGrath, John J., Stanaway, Jefrey D., Afshin, Ashkan, Sa Farinha, Carla Sofae, Butt, Zahid A., Lansingh, Van C., Misganaw, Awoke, Mishra, Shiva Raj, Kopec, Jacek A., Aichour, Ibtihel, Zhang, Anthony Lin, Nguyen, Grant, Thomson, Alan J., Breitborde, Nicholas J.K., Khang, Young-Ho, Olsen, Helen E., Feigin, Valery L., Silva, João Pedro, Amare, Azmeraw T., Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. Arthur, Kutz, Michael, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Mokdad, Ali H., Giroud, Maurice, Singh, Jasvinder A., Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Violante, Francesco S., Chitheer, Abdulaal A., Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Mollenkopf, Sarah K., Reitsma, Marissa B., Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Allen, Christine, Samy, Abdallah M., Majdan, Marek, Mensah, George A., Mohammed, Shafu, Ahmadi, Alireza, Khoja, Abdullah Tawfh Abdullah, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, and Do, Huyen Phuc
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2. Zero hunger ,3. Good health - Abstract
BACKGROUND: Monitoring levels and trends in premature mortality is crucial to understanding how societies can address prominent sources of early death. The Global Burden of Disease 2016 Study (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of cause-specific mortality for 264 causes in 195 locations from 1980 to 2016. This assessment includes evaluation of the expected epidemiological transition with changes in development and where local patterns deviate from these trends. METHODS: We estimated cause-specific deaths and years of life lost (YLLs) by age, sex, geography, and year. YLLs were calculated from the sum of each death multiplied by the standard life expectancy at each age. We used the GBD cause of death database composed of: vital registration (VR) data corrected for under-registration and garbage coding; national and subnational verbal autopsy (VA) studies corrected for garbage coding; and other sources including surveys and surveillance systems for specific causes such as maternal mortality. To facilitate assessment of quality, we reported on the fraction of deaths assigned to GBD Level 1 or Level 2 causes that cannot be underlying causes of death (major garbage codes) by location and year. Based on completeness, garbage coding, cause list detail, and time periods covered, we provided an overall data quality rating for each location with scores ranging from 0 stars (worst) to 5 stars (best). We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to generate estimates for each location, year, age, and sex. We assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific deaths in relation to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of average income per capita, educational attainment, and total fertility, with locations grouped into quintiles by SDI. Relative to GBD 2015, we expanded the GBD cause hierarchy by 18 causes of death for GBD 2016. FINDINGS: The quality of available data varied by location. Data quality in 25 countries rated in the highest category (5 stars), while 48, 30, 21, and 44 countries were rated at each of the succeeding data quality levels. Vital registration or verbal autopsy data were not available in 27 countries, resulting in the assignment of a zero value for data quality. Deaths from non-communicable diseases (NCDs) represented 72·3% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 71·2-73·2) of deaths in 2016 with 19·3% (18·5-20·4) of deaths in that year occurring from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases and a further 8·43% (8·00-8·67) from injuries. Although age-standardised rates of death from NCDs decreased globally between 2006 and 2016, total numbers of these deaths increased; both numbers and age-standardised rates of death from CMNN causes decreased in the decade 2006-16-age-standardised rates of deaths from injuries decreased but total numbers varied little. In 2016, the three leading global causes of death in children under-5 were lower respiratory infections, neonatal preterm birth complications, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma, combined resulting in 1·80 million deaths (95% UI 1·59 million to 1·89 million). Between 1990 and 2016, a profound shift toward deaths at older ages occurred with a 178% (95% UI 176-181) increase in deaths in ages 90-94 years and a 210% (208-212) increase in deaths older than age 95 years. The ten leading causes by rates of age-standardised YLL significantly decreased from 2006 to 2016 (median annualised rate of change was a decrease of 2·89%); the median annualised rate of change for all other causes was lower (a decrease of 1·59%) during the same interval. Globally, the five leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were cardiovascular diseases; diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; neoplasms; neonatal disorders; and HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. At a finer level of disaggregation within cause groupings, the ten leading causes of total YLLs in 2016 were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, road injuries, malaria, neonatal preterm birth complications, HIV/AIDS, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and neonatal encephalopathy due to birth asphyxia and trauma. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of total YLLs in 113 countries for men and 97 countries for women. Comparisons of observed levels of YLLs by countries, relative to the level of YLLs expected on the basis of SDI alone, highlighted distinct regional patterns including the greater than expected level of YLLs from malaria and from HIV/AIDS across sub-Saharan Africa; diabetes mellitus, especially in Oceania; interpersonal violence, notably within Latin America and the Caribbean; and cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, particularly in eastern and central Europe. The level of YLLs from ischaemic heart disease was less than expected in 117 of 195 locations
3. Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
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Stöckl, Heidi, Anwari, Palwasha, Agrawal, Sutapa, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Kim, Daniel, Graetz, Nicholas, Ali, Raghib, Jonas, Jost B., Gibney, Katherine B., Coresh, Josef, Kaul, Anil, Majdzadeh, Reza, Franklin, Richard C., Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Silva, João Pedro, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Kuipers, Ernst J., Ileanu, Bogdan Vasile, Massano, João, Saxena, Sonia, Yip, Paul, Majdan, Marek, Perez-Ruiz, Fernando, Castillo Rivas, Jacqueline, Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho, Kadel, Rajendra, Soriano, Joan B., Hambisa, Mitiku Teshome, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Karch, André, Ciobanu, Liliana G., Esteghamati, Alireza, Pourmalek, Farshad, Martinez-Raga, Jose, Kibret, Getiye Dejenu, Das Neves, José, Sanchez-Niño, Maria Dolores, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Baune, Bernhard T., Mazidi, Mohsen, Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina, Gesesew, Hailay Abrha, Gillum, Richard F., Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Karthikeyan, Ganesan, Silberberg, Donald H., Kishawi, Sami, Rawaf, Salman, Resnikoff, Serge, Allebeck, Peter, Bärnighausen, Till, Bennett, James R., Tarajia, Musharaf, Chibalabala, Mirriam, Barregard, Lars, Cirillo, Massimo, Alahdab, Fares, McGrath, John J., Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Petri, William Arthur, Lachat, Carl, Sagar, Rajesh, Zeeb, Hajo, Alsharif, Ubai, Deribew, Amare, Herteliu, Claudiu, Xu, Gelin, Patel, Tejas, Ding, Eric L., Shibuya, Kenji, Davey, Gail, Misganaw, Awoke, Tekle, Dejen Yemane, Schwendicke, Falk, Barrero, Lope H., Mekonnen, Tefera Chane, Leigh, James, Lee, Paul H., Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Bell, Michelle L., Car, Josip, Balalla, Shivanthi, Pishgar, Farhad, Kastor, Anshul, Feigin, Valery L., Dubey, Manisha, Uthman, Olalekan A., Gupta, Rajeev, Alkaabi, Juma M., Nachega, Jean B., Mantovani, Lorenzo G., Sharma, Jayendra, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Lipshultz, Steven E., Bhala, Neeraj, Mohammadi, Alireza, Menon, Geetha R., Sobaih, Badr H.A., Abu-Raddad, Laith J., Kamal, Ritul, Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Vollset, Stein Emil, Barac, Aleksandra, Vasankari, Tommi, Lorch, Scott A., Meier, Toni, Vladimirov, Sergey K., Rubagotti, Enrico, Campos-Nonato, Ismael Ricardo, Horita, Nobuyuki, Polinder, Suzanne, Woldeyes, Belete Getahun, Vasconcelos, Ana Maria Nogales, Kim, Pauline, Bisanzio, Donal, Dandona, Rakhi, Fanuel, Fanuel Belayneh Bekele, Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Lansingh, Van C., Larsson, Anders, Mengistu, Desalegn Tadese, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khosravi, Mohammad Hossein, Mooney, Meghan D., Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Genova-Maleras, Ricard, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Bazargan-Hejazi, Shahrzad, Laryea, Dennis Odai, Deribe, Kebede, Shigematsu, Mika, Jensen, Paul N., Brenner, Hermann, Nong, Vuong Minh, Nagel, Gabriele, Gambashidze, Ketevan, Stein, Dan J., Gona, Philimon N., Htet, Aung Soe, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Dandona, Lalit, Shiue, Ivy, Chiang, Peggy Pei-Chia, Haghparast Bidgoli, Hassan, Bumgarner, Blair Randal, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Okoro, Anselm, Frank, Tahvi, Irvine, Caleb M.S., Asayesh, Hamid, Mackay, Mark T., Kahsay, Amaha, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Mokdad, Ali H., Al-Eyadhy, Ayman, Park, Eun-Kee, Pereira, David M., Satpathy, Maheswar, Yan, Lijing L., Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto, Islam, Nazrul, Djalalinia, Shirin, Donnelly, Christl Ann, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Topor-Madry, Roman, Yirsaw, Biruck Desalegn, Bacha, Umar, Rajsic, Sasa, Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Varughese, Santosh, Alla, François, Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Kabir, Zubair, Tekelab, Tesfalidet, Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Afshin, Ashkan, Lodha, Rakesh, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Lotufo, Paulo A., Endries, Aman Yesuf, Nomura, Marika, Gupta, Vipin, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Sanabria, Juan Ramon, Ameh, Emmanuel A., Swaminathan, Soumya, Popova, Svetlana, Krohn, Kristopher J., Anber, Nahla, Martin, Elena Alvarez, Seid, Abdulbasit Musa, Stathopoulou, Vasiliki, Thomson, Alan J., Rezaei, Satar, Ahmad Kiadaliri, Aliasghar, Lunevicius, Raimundas, Carpenter, David O., Sarmiento-Suarez, Rodrigo, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Douwes-Schultz, Dirk, Uzochukwu, Benjamin S. Chudi, Noubiap, Jean Jacques N., Sur, Patrick J., Mohammed, Kedir Endris, Macarayan, Erlyn Rachelle King, Farzadfar, Farshad, Aichour, Ibthiel, Hammami, Mouhanad, Gemechu, Kasiye Shiferaw, Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Hao, Yuantao, Dos Santos, Kadine Priscila Bender, Nguyen, Grant, Hostiuc, Sorin, Sligar, Amber, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Safdarian, Mahdi, Brazinova, Alexandra, Rabiee, Rynaz H.S., Sahathevan, Ramesh, Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Olagunju, Andrew Toyin, Perico, Norberto, Renzaho, Andre M.N.N., Rahimi-Movaghar, Afarin, Magdy Abd El Razek, Mohammed, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Rana, Saleem M., Bensenor, Isabela M., Pervaiz, Aslam, Ronfani, Luca, Weintraub, Robert G., Zhang, Anthony Lin, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Strong, Mark, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Kissoon, Niranjan, Mills, Edward J., Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Li, Yongmei, Mehta, Kala M., Thrift, Amanda G., Moore, Ami R., Driscoll, Tim R., Poulton, Richie G., Yalew, Ayalnesh Zemene, Kucuk Bicer, Burcu, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Castro, Franz F., Yotebieng, Marcel, Pakhale, Smita, Kulkarni, Veena S., Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Tehrani-Banihashemi, Arash, Machado, Isis Eloah, Malekzadeh, Reza, Silpakit, Naris, Hosgood, H. Dean, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Marczak, Laurie B., Gebrekidan, Kahsu Gebrekirstos, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Montañez Hernandez, Julio Cesar, Foreman, Kyle J., Hamidi, Samer, Pana, Adrian, Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Zodpey, Sanjay, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Estep, Kara, Ketema, Ezra Belay, Mirarefin, Mojde, Karimi, Seyed M., Sahebkar, Amirhossein, Akanda, Ali Shafqat, Murthy, Srinivas, Ellingsen, Christian Lycke, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A., Kassaw, Nigussie Assefa, Nascimento, Bruno Ramos, Micha, Renata, Zuhlke, Liesl Joanna, Meretoja, Atte, Amare, Azmeraw T., Piel, Frédéric B., Norrving, Bo, Wang, Haidong, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Leung, Ricky, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Amoako, Yaw Ampem, Levi, Miriam, Undurraga, Eduardo A., Menota, Bereket Gebremichael, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Mahdavi, Mahdi, Allam, Shalini D., Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves, Tadese, Fentaw, Soneji, Samir, Weichenthal, Scott, Doku, David Teye, Gill, Paramjit Singh, Varakin, Yuri Y., Deiparine, Selina, Barquera, Simon, Mahesh, Foigt, Nataliya, Saylan, Mete I., Shiri, Rahman, Van Boven, Job F.M., Des Jarlais, Don C., Dwivedi, Laxmi Kant, Gupta, Tanush, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew, Dherani, Mukesh K., Lalloo, Ratilal, Artaman, Al, Davletov, Kairat, Kutz, Michael, Mollenkopf, Sarah K., Haagsma, Juanita A., Salamati, Payman, Yaghoubi, Mohsen, Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, De Courten, Barbora, Wilkinson, James D., Suliankatchi, Rizwan Abdulkader, Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale, Assadi, Reza, Sunguya, Bruno F., Choi, Jee-Young Jasmine, Schneider, Ione J.C., Oh, In-Hwan, Shackelford, Katya Anne, Nangia, Vinay, Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Cahill, Leah E., Yimam, Hassen Hamid, Bourne, Rupert R.A., Tesema, Cheru Leshargie, Mullany, Erin, Salvi, Sundeep Santosh, Aljunid, Syed M., Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Fürst, Thomas, Davitoiu, Dragos V., Montico, Marcella, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Hay, Simon I., Hoek, Hans W., Sabde, Yogesh Damodar, Cárdenas, Rosario, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Kemp, Andrew Haddon, Liao, Yu, Ota, Erika, Hay, Roderick J., Leung, Janni, Rothenbacher, Dietrich, Boufous, Soufiane, Irenso, Asnake Ararsa, Khera, Sahil, Smith, David L., Gebregergs, Gebremedhin Berhe, Mehata, Suresh, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer, Patton, George C., Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Mohanty, Sanjay K., Temam Shifa, Girma, Ye, Pengpeng, Oren, Eyal, Plass, Dietrich, Mohan, Murali B.V., Rokni, Mohammad Bagher, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Khan, Gulfaraz, Degenhardt, Louisa, Frostad, Joseph J., Alam, Khurshid, Nagata, Chie, Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Filip, Irina, Radfar, Amir, Dellavalle, Robert P., Kopec, Jacek A., Hotez, Peter J., Gemechu, Bikila Lencha, Babalola, Tesleem Kayode, Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam, McAlinden, Colm, Waid, Jillian L., Majeed, Azeem, Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Morrison, Shane D., Owolabi, Mayowa O., Knudsen, Ann Kristin, Singh, Abhishek, Amini, Erfan, Criqui, Michael H., Singh, Prashant Kumar, Topouzis, Fotis, Shetty, Balakrishna P., Kieling, Christian, Boneya, Dube Jara, Bennett, Derrick A., Meretoja, Tuomo J., Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Zaidi, Zoubida, Petzold, Max, Abbafati, Cristiana, Logroscino, Giancarlo, Maulik, Pallab K., Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Lager, Anton Carl Jonas, Lim, Stephen S., Jha, Vivekanand, Mendoza, Walter, Igumbor, Ehimario Uche, Singh, Jasvinder A., Sharma, Rajesh, Harb, Hilda L., Bhaumik, Soumyadeep, Salama, Joseph, Kivimaki, Mika, Lagat, Abraham K., Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Dargan, Paul I., Zenebe, Zerihun Menlkalew, Alam, Noore, Lan, Qing, Rahman, Sajjad Ur, Biryukov, Stan, Purwar, Manorama, Younis, Mustafa Z., Workie, Shimelash Bitew, Qorbani, Mostafa, Fernandes, Jefferson G., Androudi, Sofia, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Schmidt, Maria Inês, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Harikrishnan, Sivadasanpillai, Carter, Austin, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Wijeratne, Tissa, Lorkowski, Stefan, Inoue, Manami, Kan, Haidong, Gupta, Prakash C., Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Beuran, Mircea, Shen, Jiabin, Keren, Andre, Arora, Megha, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Futran, Neal D., Gebremichael, Mengistu Welday, Shaheen, Amira, Mensah, George A., Safi, Sare, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Bernabé, Eduardo, Sindi, Shireen, Bukhman, Gene, Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Perez-Padilla, Rogelio, Moraga, Paula, Seedat, Soraya, Schwebel, David C., Asghar, Rana Jawad, Steiner, Caitlyn, Shamsipour, Mansour, Jahanmehr, Nader, Kravchenko, Michael, Nguyen, Cuong Tat, Akinyemiju, Tomi F., Hilawe, Esayas Haregot, Faro, André, Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Singh, Virendra, Adetifa, Ifedayo Morayo O., Kumar, G. Anil, Phillips, Michael Robert, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Khoja, Abdullah Tawfih Abdullah, Monasta, Lorenzo, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Bjerregaard, Peter, Negoi, Ionut, Moreno Velasquez, Ilais, Workicho, Abdulhalik, Kumsa, Fekede Asefa, Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf, Fernandes, João C., Brugha, Traolach S., Hoy, Damian G., Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora, Panda, Basant Kumar, Minnig, Shawn, Safiri, Saeid, Rego, Maria Albertina Santiago, Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Oyekale, Abayomi Samuel, Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Bhansali, Anil, Gething, Peter W., Barber, Ryan M., Zhang, Xueying, Kim, Yun Jin, Ruhago, George Mugambage, Samy, Abdallah M., Bedi, Neeraj, Osgood-Zimmerman, Aaron, Kosen, Soewarta, Mapoma, Chabila C., Agrawal, Anurag, Ortiz, Alberto, Burch, Michael, Barboza, Miguel A., Naidoo, Kovin S., McGarvey, Stephen Theodore, Sachdev, Perminder S., Aldridge, Robert William, Awasthi, Ashish, Lambert, Nkurunziza, Mori, Rintaro, Tran, Bach Xuan, Reiner, Robert C., Rezai, Mohammad Sadegh, Thomas, Nihal, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Prasad, Narayan, Ram, Usha, Yano, Yuichiro, Roth, Gregory A., Miller, Ted R., Thompson, Alex H., Badawi, Alaa, Malhotra, Rajesh, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Jaenisch, Thomas, Dharmaratne, Samath D., Rehm, Jürgen, Salomon, Joshua A., Theis, Andrew, Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M.E., Lavados, Pablo M., Pesudovs, Konrad, Mengesha, Melkamu Merid, Saadat, Soheil, Ansari, Hossein, Alasfoor, Deena, Furtado, Joao M., Butt, Zahid A., Aggarwal, Rakesh, Haro, Josep Maria, Tesssema, Belay, Paudel, Deepak, Rao, Paturi Vishnupriya, Birungi, Charles, Santos, Itamar S., Yakob, Bereket, Sartorius, Benn, Vishnu, Abhishek, Koyanagi, Ai, El Bcheraoui, Charbel, Shahraz, Saeid, Nanda, Lipika, Beghi, Ettore, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Tuem, Kald Beshir, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Do, Huyen Phuc, Wang, Yuan-Pang, Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur, Vos, Theo, Peterson, Carrie Beth, Rafay, Anwar, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Hancock, Jamie, Silva, Diego Augusto Santos, Zerfu, Taddese Alemu, Abd-Allah, Foad, McKee, Martin, Ribeiro, Antonio L., Giussani, Giorgia, Linn, Shai, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Xavier, Denis, Wolfe, Charles D.A., Nisar, Muhammad Imran, Adedoyin, Rufus Adesoji, Dixit, Priyanka, Akseer, Nadia, Murray, Christopher J.L., Gelaye, Amha Admasie, Duan, Leilei, Ansha, Mustafa Geleto, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Girma, Bedilu Weji, Sadat, Nafis, Laxmaiah, Avula, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Larson, Heidi J., Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Santric Milicevic, Milena M., Fullman, Nancy, Vidavalur, Ramesh, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Werdecker, Andrea, Tanne, David, Molokhia, Mariam, De Leo, Diego, John, Oommen, Halasa, Yara A., Kim, Cho-Il, Kereselidze, Maia, Eshrati, Babak, Berhane, Adugnaw, Naghavi, Mohsen, Lozano, Rafael, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Gomez, Beatriz, Andrei, Catalina Liliana, Kumar, Pushpendra, John, Denny, Hsairi, Mohamed, Marks, Guy B., Khader, Yousef Saleh, Koul, Parvaiz A., Khang, Young-Ho, Servan-Mori, Edson E., Goenka, Shifalika, Patten, Scott B., Farvid, Maryam S., Fischer, Florian, Benson, Jennifer, Blosser, Christopher D., Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Kalkonde, Yogeshwar, Wesana, Joshua, Steel, Nicholas, Alabed, Samer, Ärnlöv, Johan, Kawakami, Norito, Memish, Ziad A., Huang, John J., Abraha, Haftom Niguse, Fraser, Maya, Violante, Francesco S., Mruts, Kalayu Birhane, Tsilimparis, Nikolaos, O'Donnell, Martin J., Al Lami, Faris Hasan, Jürisson, Mikk, Mengistie, Mubarek Abera, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B., Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, Sinha, Dhirendra Narain, Molla Assaye, Ashagre, Mohammed, Shafiu, Ma, Stefan, Friedman, Joseph, Goulart, Alessandra Carvalho, Lyons, Ronan A., Sawhney, Monika, Bello, Aminu K., Chitheer, Abdulaal A., Gupta, Rahul, Bikbov, Boris, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Yoon, Seok-Jun, Alhabib, Samia, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Dey, Subhojit, Yaseri, Mehdi, Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G. 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- Subjects
1. No poverty ,3. Good health - Abstract
BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, and
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