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Identifying factors that drive infection dynamics in reservoir host populations is essential in understanding human risk from wildlife-originated zoonoses. We studied zoonotic Puumala orthohantavirus (PUUV) in the host, the bank vole ( Myodes glareolus ), populations in relation to the host population, rodent and predator community and environment-related factors and whether these processes are translated into human infection incidence. We used 5-year rodent trapping and bank vole PUUV serology data collected from 30 sites located in 24 municipalities in Finland. We found that PUUV seroprevalence in the host was negatively associated with the abundance of red foxes, but this process did not translate into human disease incidence, which showed no association with PUUV seroprevalence. The abundance of weasels, the proportion of juvenile bank voles in the host populations and rodent species diversity were negatively associated with the abundance index of PUUV positive bank voles, which, in turn, showed a positive association with human disease incidence. Our results suggest certain predators, a high proportion of young bank vole individuals, and a diverse rodent community, may reduce PUUV risk for humans through their negative impacts on the abundance of infected bank voles.

The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986–2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator–prey interactions during winter. Our results support the importance of the small mustelids for the vole cycle. However, weakening specialist predation during winters, or an increase in generalist predation, was not associated with the loss of cyclicity. Strengthening of delayed density dependence coincided with strengthening small mustelid influence on the summer population growth rates of voles. In conclusion, a strong impact of small mustelids during summers appears highly influential to vole population dynamics, and deteriorating winter conditions are not a viable explanation for collapsing small mammal population cycles.