1. The source of individual heterogeneity shapes infectious disease outbreaks
- Author
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Christian Selinger, Samuel Alizon, Baptiste Elie, Maladies infectieuses et vecteurs : écologie, génétique, évolution et contrôle (MIVEGEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Université de Montpellier (UM), Alizon, Samuel, Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Centre interdisciplinaire de recherche en biologie (CIRB), Labex MemoLife, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Ecole Superieure de Physique et de Chimie Industrielles de la Ville de Paris (ESPCI Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
- Subjects
0106 biological sciences ,Transmission rate ,Secondary infection ,Biology ,[SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,Disease Outbreaks ,03 medical and health sciences ,[SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems ,[SDV.BID.SPT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy ,[SDV.EE.ECO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems ,[SDV.BID.EVO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE] ,Humans ,[SDV.EE.SANT] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Health ,Epidemics ,Probability ,030304 developmental biology ,General Environmental Science ,[SDV.EE.SANT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Health ,[SDV.MP.VIR] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology ,0303 health sciences ,[SDV.GEN.GPO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Genetics/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE] ,[SDV.BIBS] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Quantitative Methods [q-bio.QM] ,Ecology ,Individual heterogeneity ,General Immunology and Microbiology ,Infectious disease transmission ,[SDV.BID.EVO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE] ,Outbreak ,[SDV.EE.IEO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis ,General Medicine ,[INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation ,[SDV.BIBS]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Quantitative Methods [q-bio.QM] ,Monitoring and control ,3. Good health ,[SDE.BE] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology ,[SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,Evolutionary biology ,Infectious disease (medical specialty) ,[SDV.MP.VIR]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology ,[SDV.GEN.GPO] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Genetics/Populations and Evolution [q-bio.PE] ,[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,[INFO.INFO-MO] Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation ,[SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology ,Epidemic model ,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences ,[SDV.EE.IEO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Symbiosis - Abstract
International audience; Infectious disease transmission patterns in some outbreaks can be more heterogeneous than in others, with striking effects on the way epidemics unfold. Some studies show that the biological sources of heterogeneity may matter, but they tend to do so without controlling for the overall heterogeneity in the number of secondary cases caused by an infection. Here, we control for this important bias to explore the role of individual variation in infection duration and transmission rate on parasite emergence and spread. We simulate outbreaks using a stochastic SIR model, with and without parasite evolution. Consistently with existing studies, we show that the variance in the number of secondary infections has the strongest effect on outbreak emergence probability but has little effect on the epidemic dynamic once emergence is certain. The origin of heterogeneity also affects the probability of emergence, but its more striking effects are about properties of epidemics that do emerge. In particular, assuming more realistic variances in infection duration distributions lead to faster outbreaks and a higher peak of incidence. When the parasite requires evolutionary changes to be able to spread, the impact of heterogeneity depends on the underlying evolutionary model. If the parasite evolves within the host, decreasing the infection duration variance decreases the probability of emergence. These results show that using realistic distributions for infection duration is necessary to accurately capture the effect of individual heterogeneity on epidemiological dynamics, which has implications for the monitoring and control of infectious diseases, as well as data collection.
- Published
- 2022