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Aims: Ankle fractures are common, mainly affecting adults aged 50 years and over. To aid recovery, some patients are referred to physiotherapy, but referral patterns vary, likely due to uncertainty about the effectiveness of this supervised rehabilitation approach. To inform clinical practice, this study will evaluate the effectiveness of supervised versus self-directed rehabilitation in improving ankle function for older adults with ankle fractures. Methods: This will be a multicentre, parallel-group, individually randomized controlled superiority trial. We aim to recruit 344 participants aged 50 years and older with an ankle fracture treated surgically or non-surgically from at least 20 NHS hospitals. Participants will be randomized 1:1 using a web-based service to supervised rehabilitation (four to six one-to-one physiotherapy sessions of tailored advice and prescribed home exercise over three months), or self-directed rehabilitation (provision of advice and exercise materials that participants will use to manage their recovery independently). The primary outcome is participant-reported ankle-related symptoms and function six months after randomization, measured by the Olerud and Molander Ankle Score. Secondary outcomes at two, four, and six months measure health-related quality of life, pain, physical function, self-efficacy, exercise adherence, complications, and resource use. Due to the nature of the interventions, participants and intervention providers will be unblinded to treatment allocation. Conclusion: This study will assess whether supervised rehabilitation is more effective than self-directed rehabilitation for adults aged 50 years and older after ankle fracture. The results will provide evidence to guide clinical practice. At the time of submission, the trial is currently completing recruitment, and follow-up will be completed in 2024. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(6):499–513.

Aims: The aim of this study was to explore parents’ experience of their child’s recovery, and their thoughts about their decision to enrol their child in a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of surgery versus non-surgical casting for a displaced distal radius fracture. Methods: A total of 20 parents of children from 13 hospitals participating in the RCT took part in an interview five to 11 months after injury. Interviews were informed by phenomenology and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Analysis of the findings identified the theme “being recovered”, which conveyed: 1) parents’ acceptance and belief that their child received the best treatment for them; 2) their memory of the psychological impact of the injury for their child; and 3) their pride in how their child coped with their cast and returned to activities. The process of recovery was underpinned by three elements of experience: accepting the treatment, supporting their child through challenges during recovery, and appreciating their child’s resilience. These findings extend our framework that highlights parents’ desire to protect their child during early recovery from injury, by making the right decision, worrying about recovery, and comforting their child. Conclusion: By one year after injury, parents in both treatment groups considered their child “recovered”. They had overcome early concerns about healing, the appearance of the wrist, and coping after cast removal. Greater educational support for families during recovery would enable parents and their child to cope with the uncertainty of recovery, particularly addressing the loss of confidence, worry about reinjury, and the appearance of their wrist. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(5):426–434.

Aims: The aim of this study was to explore clinicians’ experience of a paediatric randomized controlled trial (RCT) comparing surgical reduction with non-surgical casting for displaced distal radius fractures. Methods: Overall, 22 staff from 15 hospitals who participated in the RCT took part in an interview. Interviews were informed by phenomenology and analyzed using thematic analysis. Results: Analysis of the findings identified the overarching theme of “overcoming obstacles”, which described the challenge of alleviating staff concerns about the use of non-surgical casting and recruiting families where there was treatment uncertainty. In order to embed and recruit to the Children’s Radius Acute Fracture Fixation Trial (CRAFFT), staff needed to fit the study within clinical practice, work together, negotiate treatment decisions, and support families. Conclusion: Recruiting families to this RCT was challenging because staff were uncertain about longer-term patient outcomes, and the difficulties were exacerbated by interdisciplinary tensions. Strong family and clinician beliefs, coupled with the complex nature of emergency departments and patient pathways that differed site-by-site, served as barriers to recruitment. Cementing a strong research culture, and exploring families’ treatment preferences, helped to overcome recruitment obstacles. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(4):324–334.

Aims: Fractures of the humeral shaft represent 3% to 5% of all fractures. The most common treatment for isolated humeral diaphysis fractures in the UK is non-operative using functional bracing, which carries a low risk of complications, but is associated with a longer healing time and a greater risk of nonunion than surgery. There is an increasing trend to surgical treatment, which may lead to quicker functional recovery and lower rates of fracture nonunion than functional bracing. However, surgery carries inherent risk, including infection, bleeding, and nerve damage. The aim of this trial is to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of functional bracing compared to surgical fixation for the treatment of humeral shaft fractures. Methods: The HUmeral SHaft (HUSH) fracture study is a multicentre, prospective randomized superiority trial of surgical versus non-surgical interventions for humeral shaft fractures in adult patients. Participants will be randomized to receive either functional bracing or surgery. With 334 participants, the trial will have 90% power to detect a clinically important difference for the Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder and Hand questionnaire score, assuming 20% loss to follow-up. Secondary outcomes will include function, pain, quality of life, complications, cost-effectiveness, time off work, and ability to drive. Discussion: The results of this trial will provide evidence regarding clinical and cost-effectiveness between surgical and non-surgical treatment of humeral shaft fractures. Ethical approval has been obtained from East of England – Cambridge Central Research Ethics Committee. Publication is anticipated to occur in 2024. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(4):343–349.

Aims: The primary aim of this study was to report the radiological outcomes of patients with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture who were randomized to a moulded cast or surgical fixation with wires following manipulation and closed reduction of their fracture. The secondary aim was to correlate radiological outcomes with patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) in the year following injury. Methods: Participants were recruited as part of DRAFFT2, a UK multicentre clinical trial. Participants were aged 16 years or over with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture, and were eligible for the trial if they needed a manipulation of their fracture, as recommended by their treating surgeon. Participants were randomly allocated on a 1:1 ratio to moulded cast or Kirschner wires after manipulation of the fracture in the operating theatre. Standard posteroanterior and lateral radiographs were performed in the radiology department of participating centres at the time of the patient’s initial assessment in the emergency department and six weeks postoperatively. Intraoperative fluoroscopic images taken at the time of fracture reduction were also assessed. Results: Patients treated with surgical fixation with wires had less dorsal angulation of the radius versus those treated in a moulded cast at six weeks after manipulation of the fracture; the mean difference of -4.13° was statistically significant (95% confidence interval 5.82 to -2.45). There was no evidence of a difference in radial shortening. However, there was no correlation between these radiological measurements and PROMs at any timepoint in the 12 months post-injury. Conclusion: For patients with a dorsally displaced distal radius fracture treated with a closed manipulation, surgical fixation with wires leads to less dorsal angulation on radiographs at six weeks compared with patients treated in a moulded plaster cast alone. However, the difference in dorsal angulation was small and did not correlate with patient-reported pain and function. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(2):132–138.

Aims: Ankle fracture is one of the most common musculoskeletal injuries sustained in the UK. Many patients experience pain and physical impairment, with the consequences of the fracture and its management lasting for several months or even years. The broad aim of ankle fracture treatment is to maintain the alignment of the joint while the fracture heals, and to reduce the risks of problems, such as stiffness. More severe injuries to the ankle are routinely treated surgically. However, even with advances in surgery, there remains a risk of complications; for patients experiencing these, the associated loss of function and quality of life (Qol) is considerable. Non-surgical treatment is an alternative to surgery and involves applying a cast carefully shaped to the patient’s ankle to correct and maintain alignment of the joint with the key benefit being a reduction in the frequency of common complications of surgery. The main potential risk of non-surgical treatment is a loss of alignment with a consequent reduction in ankle function. This study aims to determine whether ankle function, four months after treatment, in patients with unstable ankle fractures treated with close contact casting is not worse than in those treated with surgical intervention, which is the current standard of care. Methods: This trial is a pragmatic, multicentre, randomized non-inferiority clinical trial with an embedded pilot, and with 12 months clinical follow-up and parallel economic analysis. A surveillance study using routinely collected data will be performed annually to five years post-treatment. Adult patients, aged 60 years and younger, with unstable ankle fractures will be identified in daily trauma meetings and fracture clinics and approached for recruitment prior to their treatment. Treatments will be performed in trauma units across the UK by a wide range of surgeons. Details of the surgical treatment, including how the operation is done, implant choice, and the recovery programme afterwards, will be at the discretion of the treating surgeon. The non-surgical treatment will be close-contact casting performed under anaesthetic, a technique which has gained in popularity since the publication of the Ankle Injury Management (AIM) trial. In all, 890 participants (445 per group) will be randomly allocated to surgical or non-surgical treatment. Data regarding ankle function, QoL, complications, and healthcare-related costs will be collected at eight weeks, four and 12 months, and then annually for five years following treatment. The primary outcome measure is patient-reported ankle function at four months from treatment. Anticipated impact: The 12-month results will be presented and published internationally. This is anticipated to be the only pragmatic trial reporting outcomes comparing surgical with non-surgical treatment in unstable ankle fractures in younger adults (aged 60 years and younger), and, as such, will inform the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) ‘non-complex fracture’ recommendations at their scheduled update in 2024. A report of long-term outcomes at five years will be produced by January 2027. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2024;5(3):184–201.

Aims: Open lower limb fracture is life-changing, resulting in substantial morbidity and resource demand, while inconsistent outcome-reporting hampers systematic review and meta-analysis. A core outcome set establishes consensus among key stakeholders for the recommendation of a minimum set of outcomes. This study aims to define a core outcome set for adult open lower limb fracture. Methods: Candidate outcomes were identified from a previously published systematic review and a secondary thematic analysis of 25 patient interviews exploring the lived experience of recovery from open lower limb fracture. Outcomes were categorized and sequentially refined using healthcare professional and patient structured discussion groups. Consensus methods included a multi-stakeholder two-round online Delphi survey and a consensus meeting attended by a purposive sample of stakeholders, facilitated discussion, and voting using a nominal group technique. Results: Thematic analysis and systematic review identified 121 unique outcomes, reduced to 68 outcomes following structured discussion groups. Outcomes were presented to 136 participants who completed a two-round online Delphi survey. The Delphi survey resulted in 11 outcomes identified as consensus ‘in’ only. All outcomes were discussed at a consensus meeting attended by 15 patients, 14 healthcare professionals, 11 researchers, and one patient-carer. Consensus was achieved for a four-core outcome set: ‘Walking, gait and mobility’, ‘Being able to return to life roles’, ‘Pain or discomfort’, and ‘Quality of life’. Conclusion: This study used robust consensus methods to establish a core outcome set that should be measured in all future research studies and audits of clinical practice without precluding the measurement of additional outcomes. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(4):294–305.

Aims: Open lower limb fracture is a life-changing injury affecting 11.5 per 100,000 adults each year, and causes significant morbidity and resource demand on trauma infrastructures. This study aims to identify what, and how, outcomes have been reported for people following open lower limb fracture over ten years. Methods: Systematic literature searches identified all clinical studies reporting outcomes for adults following open lower limb fracture between January 2009 and July 2019. All outcomes and outcome measurement instruments were extracted verbatim. An iterative process was used to group outcome terms under standardized outcome headings categorized using an outcome taxonomy. Results: A total of 532 eligible studies were identified, reporting 1,803 outcomes with 786 unique outcome terms, which collapsed to 82 standardized outcome headings. Overall 479 individual outcome measurement instruments were identified, including 298 outcome definitions, 27 patient- and 18 clinician-reported outcome measures, and six physical performance measures. The most-reported outcome was ‘bone union/healing’ reported in over 50% of included studies, while health-related quality of life was only measured in 6% of included studies. Conclusion: Outcomes reported for people recovering from open lower limb fracture are heterogeneous, liable to outcome reporting bias, and vary widely in the definitions and the measurement tools used to collect them. Outcomes likely to be important to patients, such as quality of life and measures of physical functioning, have been neglected. This systematic review identifies the need to unify outcome measures reported on patients recovering from open lower limb fracture; this may be addressed by creating a core outcome set. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2023;12(2):138–146.

Aims: Hand trauma accounts for one in five of emergency department attendances, with a UK incidence of over five million injuries/year and 250,000 operations/year. Surgical site infection (SSI) in hand trauma surgery leads to further interventions, poor outcomes, and prolonged recovery, but has been poorly researched. Antimicrobial sutures have been recognized by both the World Health Organization and the National Institute for Clinical Excellence as potentially effective for reducing SSI. They have never been studied in hand trauma surgery: a completely different patient group and clinical pathway to previous randomized clinical trials (RCTs) of these sutures. Antimicrobial sutures are expensive, and further research in hand trauma is warranted before they become standard of care. The aim of this protocol is to conduct a feasibility study of antimicrobial sutures in patients undergoing hand trauma surgery to establish acceptability, compliance, and retention for a definitive trial. Methods: A two-arm, multicentre feasibility RCT of 116 adult participants with hand and wrist injuries, randomized to either antimicrobial sutures or standard sutures. Study participants and outcome assessors will be blinded to treatment allocation. Outcome measures will be recorded at baseline (preoperatively), 30 days, 90 days, and six months, and will include SSI, patient-reported outcome measures, and return to work. Conclusion: This will inform a definitive trial of antimicrobial sutures in the hand and wrist, and will help to inform future upper limb trauma trials. The results of this research will be shared with the medical community through high impact publication and presentation. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(7):529–535.

Aims: To compare the cost-utility of removable brace compared with cast in the management of adult patients with ankle fracture. Methods: A within-trial economic evaluation conducted from the UK NHS and personnel social services (PSS) perspective. Health resources and quality-of-life data were collected as part of the Ankle Injury Rehabilitation (AIR) multicentre, randomized controlled trial over a 12-month period using trial case report forms and patient-completed questionnaires. Cost-utility analysis was estimated in terms of the incremental cost per quality adjusted life year (QALY) gained. Estimate uncertainty was explored by bootstrapping, visualized on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio plane. Net monetary benefit and probability of cost-effectiveness were evaluated at a range of willingness-to-pay thresholds and visualized graphically. Results: The incremental cost and QALYs of using brace over a 12-month period were £46.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) £-9 to £147) and 0.0141 (95% CI -0.005 to 0.033), respectively. The cost per QALY gained was £3,318. The probability of brace being cost-effective at a £30,000 per QALY willingness-to-pay threshold was 88%. The results remained robust to a range of sensitivity analyses. Conclusion: This within-trial economic evaluation found that it is probable that using a removable brace provides good value to the NHS when compared to cast, in the management of adults with ankle fracture. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(6):455–462.

Aims: This study aims to estimate economic outcomes associated with 30-day deep surgical site infection (SSI) from closed surgical wounds in patients with lower limb fractures following major trauma. Methods: Data from the Wound Healing in Surgery for Trauma (WHiST) trial, which collected outcomes from 1,547 adult participants using self-completed questionnaires over a six-month period following major trauma, was used as the basis of this empirical investigation. Associations between deep SSI and NHS and personal social services (PSS) costs (£, 2017 to 2018 prices), and between deep SSI and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), were estimated using descriptive and multivariable analyses. Sensitivity analyses assessed the impact of uncertainty surrounding components of the economic analyses. Results: Compared to participants without deep SSI, those with deep SSI had higher mean adjusted total NHS and PSS costs (adjusted mean difference £1,577 (95% confidence interval (CI) -951 to 4,105); p = 0.222), and lower mean adjusted QALYs (adjusted mean difference -0.015 (95% CI -0.032 to 0.002); p = 0.092) over six months post-injury, but this difference was not statistically significant. The results were robust to the sensitivity analyses performed. Conclusion: This study found worse economic outcomes during the first six months post-injury in participants who experience deep SSI following orthopaedic surgery for major trauma to the lower limb. However, the increase in cost associated with deep SSI was less than previously reported in the orthopaedic trauma literature. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(5):398–403.

Aims The aim of the HIPGEN consortium is to develop the first cell therapy product for hip fracture patients using PLacental-eXpanded (PLX-PAD) stromal cells. Methods HIPGEN is a multicentre, multinational, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial. A total of 240 patients aged 60 to 90 years with low-energy femoral neck fractures (FNF) will be allocated to two arms and receive an intramuscular injection of either 150 × 106 PLX-PAD cells or placebo into the medial gluteal muscle after direct lateral implantation of total or hemi hip arthroplasty. Patients will be followed for two years. The primary endpoint is the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) at week 26. Secondary and exploratory endpoints include morphological parameters (lean body mass), functional parameters (abduction and handgrip strength, symmetry in gait, weightbearing), all-cause mortality rate and patient-reported outcome measures (Lower Limb Measure, EuroQol five-dimension questionnaire). Immunological biomarker and in vitro studies will be performed to analyze the PLX-PAD mechanism of action. A sample size of 240 subjects was calculated providing 88% power for the detection of a 1 SPPB point treatment effect for a two-sided test with an α level of 5%. Conclusion The HIPGEN study assesses the efficacy, safety, and tolerability of intramuscular PLX-PAD administration for the treatment of muscle injury following arthroplasty for hip fracture. It is the first phase III study to investigate the effect of an allogeneic cell therapy on improved mobilization after hip fracture, an aspect which is in sore need of addressing for the improvement in standard of care treatment for patients with FNF. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2022;3(4):340–347.

Aims: To determine the role of early MRI in the management of suspected scaphoid fractures. Methods: A total of 337 consecutive patients presenting to an emergency department (ED) following wrist trauma over a 12-month period were prospectively included in this service evaluation project. MRI was not required in 62 patients with clear diagnoses, and 17 patients were not managed as per pathway, leaving a total of 258 patients with normal scaphoid series radiographs who were then referred directly from ED for an acute wrist MRI scan. Patient demographics, clinical details, outcomes, and complications were recorded at a minimum of a year following injury. Results: The median time from injury to ED presentation was one day and the median number of positive clinical signs was two out of three (snuffbox tenderness, tubercle tenderness, pain on telescoping). Of 258 patients referred for acute MRI, 208 scans were performed as 50 patients either did not tolerate (five patients) or did not attend their scan (45 patients). MRI scans demonstrated scaphoid fracture (13%), fracture of another bone (22%), scaphoid contusion (6%), other contusion/ligamentous injury (20%), or solely degenerative pathology (10%). Only 29% of scans showed no abnormality. Almost 50% of those undergoing MRI (100 patients) were discharged by ED with advice, with only one re-presentation. Of the 27 undisplaced occult scaphoid fractures, despite prompt cast immobilization, two experienced delayed union which was successfully treated with surgery. Conclusion: The use of MRI direct from ED enables prompt diagnosis and the early discharge of a large proportion of patients with normal radiographs following wrist trauma.

Aims: The aim of this study was to explore parents and young people’s experience of having a medial epicondyle fracture, and their thoughts about the uncertainty regarding the optimal treatment. Methods: Families were identified after being invited to participate in a randomized controlled trial of surgery or no surgery for displaced medial epicondyle fractures of the humerus in children. A purposeful sample of 25 parents (22 females) and five young people (three females, mean age 11 years (7 to 14)) from 15 UK hospitals were interviewed a mean of 39 days (14 to 78) from injury. Qualitative interviews were informed by phenomenology and themes identified to convey participants’ experience. Results: The results identify parents’ desire to do the best for their child expressed through two themes: 1) ‘uncertainty’ (being uncertain about the best treatment option); and 2) ‘facilitating recovery’ (sharing the experience). Parents and young people were shocked when confronted with uncertainty about treatment and they felt responsible for the decision. They searched for further information, drew on their own experience, and struggled to weigh up risks of the treatments. Discussion with surgeons provided crucial support for decision-making, and young people were involved to a varying degree. In facilitating recovery, parents balanced increasing activity with protecting their child, but lacked knowledge about pain management, and how to improve strength and function of the arm. They hoped for a return to normal, including competitive sports. Conclusion: Surgeons are aware of the impact of injury on children and their parents; however, they may be less aware of the turmoil created by treatment uncertainty. Confident surgeons who appreciate and contextualize the importance of pre-existing experience and beliefs are best placed to help the family develop confidence to embrace uncertainty, particularly regarding participation in clinical trials.

Aims: A pilon fracture is a severe ankle joint injury caused by high-energy trauma, typically affecting men of working age. Although relatively uncommon (5% to 7% of all tibial fractures), this injury causes among the worst functional and health outcomes of any skeletal injury, with a high risk of serious complications and long-term disability, and with devastating consequences on patients’ quality of life and financial prospects. Robust evidence to guide treatment is currently lacking. This study aims to evaluate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of two surgical interventions that are most commonly used to treat pilon fractures. Methods: A randomized controlled trial (RCT) of 334 adult patients diagnosed with a closed type C pilon fracture will be conducted. Internal locking plate fixation will be compared with external frame fixation. The primary outcome and endpoint will be the Disability Rating Index (a patient self-reported assessment of physical disability) at 12 months. This will also be measured at baseline, three, six, and 24 months after randomization. Secondary outcomes include the Olerud and Molander Ankle Score (OMAS), the five-level EuroQol five-dimenison score (EQ-5D-5L), complications (including bone healing), resource use, work impact, and patient treatment preference. The acceptability of the treatments and study design to patients and health care professionals will be explored through qualitative methods. Discussion: The two treatments being compared are the most commonly used for this injury, however there is uncertainty over which is most clinically and cost-effective. The Articular Pilon Fracture (ACTIVE) Trial is a sufficiently powered and rigorously designed study to inform clinical decisions for the treatment of adults with this injury. Cite this article: Bone Jt Open 2021;2(3):150–163.

Aims: Patients receiving cemented hemiarthroplasties after hip fracture have a significant risk of deep surgical site infection (SSI). Standard UK practice to minimize the risk of SSI includes the use of antibiotic-loaded bone cement with no consensus regarding type, dose, or antibiotic content of the cement. This is the protocol for a randomized clinical trial to investigate the clinical and cost-effectiveness of high dose dual antibiotic-loaded cement in comparison to low dose single antibiotic-loaded cement in patients 60 years and over receiving a cemented hemiarthroplasty for an intracapsular hip fracture. Methods: The WHiTE 8 Copal Or Palacos Antibiotic Loaded bone cement trial (WHiTE 8 COPAL) is a multicentre, multi-surgeon, parallel, two-arm, randomized clinical trial. The pragmatic study will be embedded in the World Hip Trauma Evaluation (WHiTE) (ISRCTN 63982700). Participants, including those that lack capacity, will be allocated on a 1:1 basis stratified by recruitment centre to either a low dose single antibiotic-loaded bone cement or a high dose dual antibiotic-loaded bone cement. The primary analysis will compare the differences in deep SSI rate as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention within 90 days of surgery via medical record review and patient self-reported questionnaires. Secondary outcomes include UK Core Outcome Set for hip fractures, complications, rate of antibiotic prescription, resistance patterns of deep SSI, and resource use (more specifically, cost-effectiveness) up to four months post-randomization. A minimum of 4,920 patients will be recruited to obtain 90% power to detect an absolute difference of 1.5% in the rate of deep SSI at 90 days for the expected 3% deep SSI rate in the control group. Conclusion: The results of this trial will provide evidence regarding clinical and cost-effectiveness between low dose single and high dose dual antibiotic-loaded bone cement, which will inform policy and practice guidelines such as the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance on management of hip fractures.

Aims: This study explores the reported rate of surgical site infection (SSI) after hip fracture surgery in published studies concerning patients treated in the UK. Methods: Studies were included if they reported on SSI after any type of surgical treatment for hip fracture. Each study required a minimum of 30 days follow-up and 100 patients. Meta-analysis was undertaken using a random effects model. Heterogeneity was expressed using the I2 statistic. Risk of bias was assessed using a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) system. Results: There were 20 studies reporting data from 88,615 patients. Most were retrospective cohort studies from single centres. The pooled incidence was 2.1% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.54% to 2.62%) across ‘all types’ of hip fracture surgery. When analyzed by operation type, the SSI incidences were: hemiarthroplasty 2.87% (95% CI 1.99% to 3.75%) and sliding hip screw 1.35% (95% CI 0.78% to 1.93%). There was considerable variation in definition of infection used, as well as considerable risk of bias, particularly as few studies actively screened participants for SSI. Conclusion: Synthesis of published estimates of infection yield a rate higher than that seen in national surveillance procedures. Biases noted in all studies would trend towards an underestimate, largely due to inadequate follow-up.