1. Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains.
- Author
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Garcia, Elizabeth S. and Loáiciga, Hugo A.
- Subjects
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FLOODPLAINS , *ABSOLUTE sea level change , *URBAN growth , *FLOOD risk , *FLOOD damage - Abstract
This work presents a method for calculating the contributions of sea-level rise and urban growth to flood risk in coastal flood plains. The method consists of hydraulic/hydrological, urban growth and flood-damage quantification modules. The hydraulic/hydrological module estimates peak annual flows to generate flood stages impacted by sea-level rise within flood plains. A model for urban growth predicts patterns of urbanization within flood plains over the period 2010–2050. The flood-damage quantification module merges flood maps and urbanization predictions to calculate the expected annual flood damage (EAFD) for given scenarios of sea-level rise. The method is illustrated with an application to the Tijuana River of southern California, USA, and northwestern Mexico, where the EAFD is predicted to increase by over US$100 million because of sea-level rise of 0.25–1.0 m and urban growth by the year 2050. It is shown that urbanization plays a principal role in increasing the EAFD in the study area for the range of sea-level rise considered. EditorZ.W. Kundzewicz CitationGarcia, E.S. and Loáiciga, H.A., 2013. Sea-level rise and flooding in coastal riverine flood plains.Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (1), 204–220. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
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