Search

Lindeman et al. [12] provide a unique solution to the relative importance of correlated predictors in multiple regression by averaging squared semi-partial correlations obtained for each predictor across all p! orderings. In this paper, we propose a series of predictor sensitivity statistics that complement the variance decomposition procedure advanced by Lindeman et al. [12]. First, we detail the logic of averaging over orderings as a technique of variance partitioning. Second, we assess predictors by conditional dominance analysis, a qualitative procedure designed to overcome defects in the Lindeman et al. [12] variance decomposition solution. Third, we introduce a suite of indices to assess the sensitivity of a predictor to model specification, advancing a series of sensitivity-adjusted contribution statistics that allow for more definite quantification of predictor relevance. Fourth, we describe the analytic efficiency of our proposed technique against the Budescu conditional dominance solution to the uneven contribution of predictors across all p! orderings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the authors discuss public opinion on climate change. They argue that increased confidence among scientists about the reality of human-induced climate change (CC) has failed to translate into a public consensus within the U.S., adding that public opinion polls indicate a decline in public acceptance of CC. Topics include the challenges that climate skepticism poses for the scientific community, sources of opinion formation on CC, and what can be done change public opinion.

A basic proposition of 'agency theory' is that output-based performance incentives encourage greater effort. However, studies find that incentive schemes can distort effort if rewards for performance are discrete or non-linear. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) Community Rating System (CRS) is a flood mitigation programme with a non-linear incentive design. Under this programme, localities are incentivised to implement a mix of 18 flood mitigation activities. Each activity is performance scored, with accumulated scores corresponding to a percent discount on flood insurance premiums for residents that hold National Flood Insurance policies. Discounts range from 0 to 45% and increase discretely in increments of 5%. With multivariate statistical and Geographic Information Systems analytic techniques, tests are made to find whether observed changes in annual CRS scores for participating localities in Florida are explained by non-linear incentives, adjusting for hydrologic conditions, flood disaster histories, socio-economic and human capital controls that can plausibly account for local mitigation activity scores over time. Results indicate that local jurisdictions are discount-seeking, with mitigation efforts partially driven by the non-linear incentive design of the CRS programme. The paper ends with recommendations to improve the operation FEMA's flood mitigation programme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problem: Solar energy has potential to solve many types of planning problems. Knowing where existing household solar energy users are located and what factors explain this distribution can help craft appropriate local policies. Purpose: This study analyzes the spatial distribution of households who heat their homes with solar energy across the contiguous United States. Methods: We use geographic information systems (GIS) and zero-inflated negative binomial statistical techniques to test three sets of geographic predictors at the scale of the county: environmental, economic, and sociopolitical. Results and conclusions: Descriptive, GIS, and regression results indicate that the expected number of households using solar energy to heat their homes increases significantly with the amount of solar radiation received, but that other environmental, socioeconomic, and political factors are also significant predictors. The number of solar households in a county is a positive function of wealth (operationalized as median home value), urbanization, and the percentage of residents in the peak period of the lifecycle-consumption curve. Having a solar energy technology provider in the county did not appear to be significant. Finally, we confirmed that households heating with solar energy increase with the percentage of persons who vote for the Democratic Party in presidential elections and with local government involvement in the International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives. Takeaway for practice: Our model can be used to enhance adoption of solar technologies by showing which localities possess most of the attributes that predict solar use, but adoption lags expectations. This can help design efficient and effective local plans and incentives calibrated to local environmental, economic, and sociopolitical conditions. Research support: Portions of the data collection for this research were supported under Award No. NA03OAR4310164 by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or the Department of Commerce. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the distribution of commercial treatment, storage, and disposal facilities (TSDFs) of hazardous waste in the southeast. Four hypotheses are tested: (1) economic rationality, (2) social inequity, (3) civic capital, and (4) scientific rationality. The data set is a match of records on operational TSDFs and large quantity generators (LQGs) of hazardous waste from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, demographic data from the U.S. Census Bureau, nonprofit organization data from the National Center for Charitable Statistics, and seismic hazard and hydrologic data from the U.S. Geological Survey. Logistic regression results indicate that location outcomes are predictable by the distribution of civic capital assets, the racial composition of a community, the hydrologic suitability of a land use, and TSDF proximity to LQGs. The concentration of LQG activity and the percentage of African Americans in a neighborhood are the most consistent predictors of TSDF location outcomes across spatial measures of risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social science theories of ethnic division and antipathy are tested empirically using survey and zip code data for representative samples of whites, African Americans, and Mexican Americans in Texas. Ordered logistic regression tests estimate the effects of theoretically relevant variables on probabilities of racial and ethnic out-group social distance. Competing social science theories of ethnic and racial social distance are tested for multiple groups. Statistical support is found for group attachment/identity theories and realistic group conflict theories in explaining variance in out-group social closeness. The socioeconomic theory was not found to be an important predictor of out-group social closeness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising economic cost of floods in the United States cannot be explained solely by monetary inflation or growth in coastal populations. Damaging flood events are also influenced by the way society plans for and physically develops its communities, influencing where structures and impervious surfaces are concentrated and how hydrological systems are altered. We analyze 383 nonhurricane flood events in Florida counties between 1997 and 2001 to isolate how planning decisions and their effects on the built environment affect property damage caused by floods. Our results suggest that alteration of naturally occurring wetlands significantly increases the property damage caused by floods, all else equal. Also, nonstructural methods such as the Federal Emergency Management Agency's Community Rating System, while providing inexpensive means of reducing property damage directly, may also indirectly encourage more development in hazardous areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article adapts a theory of ecological modernization to characterize countries by their economic, political, and cultural development to estimate their structural and strategic readiness to commit and comply with the Kyoto Protocol. Hypotheses logically derived from ecological modernization theory perform as expected, with substantial variation in Kyoto Protocol ratification explained by our variable pool. Results from logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression tests show that democratic openness, gross domestic product (GDP) output per unit of energy input, CO2 emissions per capita, and record of international cooperation on transboundary environmental problems significantly predict whether or not a country is party to the Protocol, and how quickly a country submits an instrument of ratification. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate scientists note that the effects of climate change vary regionally. Citizen willingness to absorb the costs of adaptation and mitigation policies may correspond with these place-specific effects. Geographic information systems (GIS) analytic techniques are used to map and measure survey respondents' climate change risk at various levels of spatial resolution and precision. Spatial data are used to analyze multiple measures of climate change vulnerability along with demographic, attitudinal, and perception-based variables derived from a representative national survey of U.S. residents to predict variation in support for interventionist climate change policies. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression results show that objective risk measures explain a modest amount of variation in our dependent variable. The effect of risk perception on climate policy support is far more robust. Of all variables examined, the extent to which citizens regard climate change as threatening to their material well-being drives support for costly climate change policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the global spread of Masters Swimming (MS) focusing on the economic, social, and demographic conditions associated with its initiation in the United States and its international growth. We characterize MS as a modern sport and look at its subcultural form, organizational structure, practices, and early pattern of organizational growth from bottom to top. Then we describe the top down role of La Federation Internationale de Natation Amateur (FINA) in supplying legitimacy, resources, organizational coherence, and corporate sponsors to spread the sport among FINA members. By establishing mutually beneficial relations with corporate sponsors, MS rapidly commodified and diffused to countries and territories with middle to high socio-economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]