1. Central Mean Subspace in Time Series.
- Author
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Jin-Hong Park, Sriram, T. N., and Xiangrong Yin
- Subjects
MATHEMATICAL statistics ,MATRICES (Mathematics) ,INVARIANT subspaces ,SCHWARZ function ,BAYESIAN analysis ,STOCHASTIC processes ,MATHEMATICAL models - Abstract
We propose a notion of central mean dimension reduction subspace for time series {x
1 } which does not require specification of a model but seeks to find a p x d matrix Φd , d ≤ p, so that the d x 1 vector where Φd T Xt-1 where Xt-1 = (xt-1 ,…Xt-p )T for some p ≥ 1, includes all the information about xt that is available from E(xt ∣Xt-1 ). For known p and d, we estimate the mean central subspace through the Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoother and establish the strong consistency of our estimator. In addition, we propose estimation of d and p using a modified Schwarz Bayesian criterion, if either of d and p is unknown. Finally, we examine the performance of all the estimators extensively through a variety of simulations and provide a new analysis of the well-known Canadian lynx data. Supplemental materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2009
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