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We have developed an advanced version of our yield estimation method [Ferencz et al., 2004, Crop yield estimation by satellite remote sensing. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 25, pp. 4113–4149], that is able to provide reliable forecasts for corn and wheat, several weeks before the harvest. The forecasting method is based on the data of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) instruments of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES). The method was applied to Hungary between the years 1996 and 2000. The forecasted yield values are all within 5% reliability with respect to the actual yield data produced by classic (non-satellite based) methods and provided by the Hungarian Statistical Office, with the exception of 1997, where the absolute error is about 8%. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Two methods for estimating the yield of different crops in Hungary from satellite remote sensing data are presented. The steps of preprocessing the remote sensing data (for geometric, radiometric, atmospheric and cloud scattering correction) are described. In the first method developed for field level estimation, reference crop fields were selected by using Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data for classification. A new vegetation index (General Yield Unified Reference Index (GYURI)) was deduced using a fitted double-Gaussian curve to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) data during the vegetation period. The correlation between GYURI and the field level yield data for corn for three years was R 2 =0.75. The county-average yield data showed higher correlation ( R 2 =0.93). A significant distortion from the model gave information of the possible stress of the field. The second method presented uses only NOAA AVHRR and officially reported county-level yield data. The county-level yield data and the deduced vegetation index, GYURRI, were investigated for eight different crops for eight years. The obtained correlation was high ( R 2 =84.6-87.2). The developed robust method proved to be stable and accurate for operational use for county-, region- and country-level yield estimation. The method is simple and inexpensive for application in developing countries, too. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]