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Overdose deaths in North America have soared, primarily because of the spread of illegally manufactured fentanyl. This paper uses detailed qualitative and transaction-level data to analyse an early and prominent dark web fentanyl-selling operation. The data record the date, drug, quantity, and selling price for 5,589 transactions comprising 872,659 items sold for a little over $2.8 million through AlphaBay. Findings include that the organisation sustained an impressive sales growth rate of approximately 15% per week, compounded. Increasing order sizes by a factor of ten reduced the price per pill by approximately 25% for Oxycodone and 50% for Xanax. Those steep quantity discounts imply large price markups when selling further down the distribution chain. Such high growth rates and price markups suggest that it might be difficult to constrain supply by shutting down individual organisations, since any remaining organisations may be able to quickly grow to fill unmet demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The spread of illegally manufactured opioids, including fentanyl, has brought unprecedented levels of drug overdose deaths in North America. In some markets, illegally manufactured fentanyl (IMF) is essentially displacing heroin, not just being used to adulterate it. It is not possible at this time to provide an accurate point estimate of the amount of IMF consumed in the United States. Yet for various purposes (e.g. assessing changes in production levels and the appropriate role for various supply reduction efforts), it is important to have a sense of scale. This article provides guidance through two thought experiments that provide a hypothetical upper bound on U.S. consumption. The first considers a scenario in which IMF replaces heroin in all illegal opioid markets. The second starts with the number of individuals with an opioid use disorder and considers what total consumption would be if IMF was the only opioid they consumed. Both calculations suggest it is unlikely that the annual consumption of IMF in 2021 could have been more than single digit pure metric tons. For comparison, the most recent best estimates of the amount of cocaine and heroin consumed in the U.S. are 145 and 47 pure metric tons, respectively. The article also raises questions about the limitations of using traditional equianalgesic morphine equivalent dose conversions to estimate the total market consumption of IMF. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses that the Bureau of Justice Statistics' report Prisoners in 2019 lays bare the toll (Carson 2020a), at the end of 2018, state prisons held individuals whose most serious offense was drug-related.

Background: A number of countries are legalizing the supply of cannabis or are considering doing so. Beyond top-level design questions (e.g., who gets to supply and how will it be taxed?) lie many equally important and thorny regulatory issues concerning retail sale and use. These issues will often be hammered out at the local and state/provincial level by policy makers who are generalists, not experts in substance misuse, let alone cannabis.Objectives: This review provides a framework for thinking about the role of regulation and delves into three important topics with which these leaders will wrestle: Where and when can cannabis be sold? What can retailers sell? And where can their products be used?Methods: Literature review and drawing parallels with alcohol and tobacco regulation.Results: The common thread across these questions is that the public health interest is both nuanced and in conflict with other stakeholder interests, such as companies' desire to maximize sales and profits and governments' desire for tax revenues.Conclusion: There is a need for data and oversight structures that ensure that public health will not lose out over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background:Methamphetamine-related harms have been increasing in Melbourne, Australia, yet little is known of how users interact with the drug market. We describe methamphetamine purchases and use as reported by a Melbourne-based cohort of people who inject drugs (PWID). Methods:A total of 2862 interviews from 757 participants of the Melbourne Injecting Drug User Cohort Study between April 2008 and February 2015 were used to generate descriptive statistics for the: size, search time and setting (e.g. house, street) of methamphetamine purchases, and the percentage that were shared; and the time of day, time between purchasing and using and setting of methamphetamine use. Results:No meaningful differences were observed between the powder and crystal methamphetamine markets. The most frequently purchased amount of methamphetamine was $100 with much larger transactions common; however 42% of purchases were shared, most commonly 50/50 with a partner or friend. The median time to obtain methamphetamine was 20 minutes (interquartile range (IQR) 5–30 minutes) and the median time between purchasing and using methamphetamine was 5 minutes (IQR 5–10 minutes). Most purchases were used between 10 am and 2 pm (43% of purchases), but 33% were used outside of business hours. Both purchasing and using methamphetamine occurred more frequently in houses than public settings. Conclusions:It was common for PWID in our sample to obtain >$100 of methamphetamine with a partner or friend, with relatively little search time. Support services for methamphetamine users may need to increase their operating hours to adapt to the large amount of use occurring outside of business hours. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Understanding of substitution patterns in drug using careers is limited. Between 2009 and mid-2013, the purity-adjusted price of methamphetamine declined sharply in Melbourne in absolute terms and relative to the purity-adjusted price of heroin. We determine whether there were associated increases among people who inject drugs (PWID) in (1) use of methamphetamine and (2) citing methamphetamine as the drug of choice.Method: Responses to “drug of choice” and “most used drug” were obtained from baseline and follow-up interviews of the 688 PWID enrolled in the Melbourne Injecting Drug User Cohort Study between April 2008 and August 2013, categorised as heroin, methamphetamine, cannabis or other. Previous month heroin and methamphetamine use was reported at baseline by 82% and 41% of participants, respectively, and 51% had completed four or more interviews in this period. A Markov model that included marginal effects for methamphetamine purity-adjusted price was used to calculate (1) transitions between drug of choice and (2) conditional probabilities for most used drug. Parameters were determined by fitting multinomial logistic models to appropriate data subsets.Results: At baseline, the majority of participants reported heroin as both their preferred drug and the drug they used most. There were no significant increases in reports of methamphetamine as drug of choice, or as the most used drug.Conclusion: In a cohort of PWID who reported a range of drug behaviours, there was little evidence of drug substitution into methamphetamine, despite substantial declines in its purity-adjusted price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A typology of drug smuggling 'technologies' is developed based on interviews with 110 inmates incarcerated in UK prisons for importing illegal drugs. Approximately three-quarters were involved in courier-based operations. The other 30 collectively accounted for substantially greater smuggling throughput capacity and fell into five groups: operations employing 'bent' lorry drivers; shipping drugs intermingled with legitimate commerce; transporting drugs on commercial airlines with assistance from corrupt officials; mailing drugs into the UK; and smuggling via boats landing between ports of entry. A Pareto Law seems to apply, with a minority of respondents being responsible for the majority of the smuggling. Most participated in smuggling to make money, but more than a few couriers reported being coerced and/or tricked into carrying drugs. Perhaps not coincidentally, rough calculations suggest that, when balancing profits against prison risk, crime does not pay for couriers but can for organizations employing bent lorry drivers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fundamental activity of most drug dealers is buying drugs from a supplier and selling them on, usually in smaller lot sizes to multiple customers at a lower market level. Data on such 'cycles' of purchase and resale are derived from interviews with 65 dealers incarcerated in UK prisons. A power function relationship between price and transaction size is confirmed. Analyses reveal great consistency in proportional price markups across drugs and time, high cycle frequencies (typically weekly or more often) and importers who vertically integrate into the highest level of domestic distribution, so that an important share of their net revenues effectively derives from domestic distribution inside the UK, as opposed to importation per se. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores quantity discounts and quality (purity) premia in the prices of illicit drugs. It examines several models of how drug prices might depend on transaction size. A simple relation implied by a tree model of the domestic distribution network fits data provided by the Western States Information Network for 1984-1991 quite well for various effect drugs. Quality premia are less well explained. It is observed that price is not a function of pure quantity alone, customers pay more for 2 grams at a given purity than they do for 1 gram at double that purity. Nevertheless, some purity premia are observed for white heroin, brown heroin, and powder cocaine, although not for methamphetamines, crack, or heroin tar. The estimated coefficients reflect known phenomena such as the collapses in the prices of cocaine and black tar heroin, intuitively reasonable but undocumented phenomena, such as discounts for brown heroin near the Mexican border, and some unexpected results, such as an apparent difference between the distribution of sinsemilla and that of other cannabis products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The DEA's STRIDE database is not a reliable source of price data for economic and policy analysis that require accurate measures of price levels and variations. This begs the question of how accurate is defined. Few policy analyses require data that are perfectly accurate. This article makes an attempt to define the connotation that STRIDE data should be used rarely and that some earlier uses were inappropriate. The basis for this conclusion is that the coefficients of price relations estimated with STRIDE data collected from one source differ substantially from those estimated with data collected from another source. Because the relations are different, all the different subsets of STRIDE cannot yield the same relations as in the true or underlying population of prices. The authors, thus, concluded that at least one of the sources must be flawed and point out that there is no evidence that either of them is not flawed. Drugs such as cocaine and heroin can be adulterated or diluted with other substances, such as lactose or Vitamin E are much less expensive than the drugs themselves. As a result, transaction purities are observed to range from 0 to very low to as much as 90% pure.