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Despite decreases in overall HIV mortality in the U.S., large racial inequities persist. Most previous analyses of HIV mortality and mortality inequities have utilized national- or state-level data. Using vital statistics mortality data and American Community Survey population estimates, we calculated HIV mortality rates and Black:White HIV mortality rate ratios (RR) for the 30 most populous U.S. cities at two time points, 2010–2014 (T1) and 2015–2019 (T2). Almost all cities (28) had HIV mortality rates higher than the national rate at both time points. At T2, HIV mortality rates ranged from 0.8 per 100,000 (San Jose, CA) to 15.2 per 100,000 (Baltimore, MD). Across cities, Black people were approximately 2–8 times more likely to die from HIV compared to White people at both time points. Over the decade, these racial disparities decreased at the national level (T1: RR = 11.0, T2: RR = 9.8), and in one city (Charlotte, NC). We identified large geographic and racial inequities in HIV mortality in U.S. urban areas. These city-specific data may motivate change in cities and can help guide city leaders and other health advocates as they implement, test, and support policies and programming to decrease HIV mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Projections of the future size, composition, and distribution of the populations of the Arctic states and regions are useful for policy makers in planning. This paper presents and analyzes the most recent population projections done for the Arctic states and regions. Global population growth is projected to continue increasing from the current total of 7.4 billion to 10 billion in 2055. The population of the Arctic, as defined here, is projected to have little change with a projected population increase of just 1%. However, there will be considerable variation in growth rates among Arctic regions. Alaska, Yukon, Nunavut, Iceland, Troms, the Khanty-Mansiy Okrug, and Chukotka are projected to have a substantial population increase of more than 10% over the projection period. Nordland, Finnmark, North Ostrobothnia, and Nenets Autonomous Okrug are projected to have more modest growth of between 5% and 10%. Kainuu in Finland, Karelia, Komi, Arkhangel'sk, Murmansk, and Magadan in Russia are projected to have population declines of more than 5%. Common trends seen in nearly all Arctic regions in the future are aging populations, more balanced gender ratios between men and women, increased population concentration into larger urban settlements, and the depopulation of smaller settlements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hyperparathyroidism (HPT), including normocalcaemic, vitamin D sufficient (Serum (S)-25(OH)D ≥ 50 nmol/L) hyperparathyroidism (nHPT), has increasingly been diagnosed in the last few decades due to the more common use of the serum parathyroid hormone (S-PTH) assay. We investigated if men with HPT had higher morbidity and mortality than men without HPT during 21 years' follow-up.A random population sample of 750 men, all 50 years of age, was examined in 1993. Endpoints were retrieved 21 years later at 71 years of age.Albumin-corrected serum (S) calcium, S-25-hydroxyvitamin D and S-PTH were assessed along with data on cardiovascular risk factors and medication. Outcome data on fractures, stroke, myocardial infarction, cancer and death were retrieved in 2014; 21 years after primary assessment. The prevalence of HPT at 50 years of age was 9.3%; nHPT 2.8%, primary HPT 0.4%, secondary HPT 0.4%, and HPT with vitamin D insufficiency 6%. Fracture rate, myocardial infarction, stroke, cancer and death occurred similarly in men with or without HPT, as well as in men with nHPT as compared with men without calcium/PTH aberrations during 21 years' follow-up. S-PTH was evenly distributed in the univariable analyses for each outcome. Cox regression analyses showed no increase in serious morbidity or in mortality in men with HPT, irrespective of cause, compared with men with normal S-PTH over a 21-year period. None had HPT at a S-25(OH)D level of 100 nmol/L. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current evidence suggests heterogeneity of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) among geographic areas and populations. Lower mortality rates have been reported in admixed populations compared to European origin populations. We aimed to describe and compare ALS mortality rates among ethnic groups using a population-based approach in a multiethnic country. Annual mortality cause registers were searched to determine ALS deaths from the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses in Ecuador (INEC) from 1990 to 2016. Mid-year population was considered for each year. The time trend was assessed using a negative binomial regression. Rate ratio statistics were performed to compare the age and sex standardized rates based on the 2010 US population among ethnic groups. Overall, 570 ALS deaths were identified. ALS mortality showed an age-related profile with a peak between 55 and 70 years. After age–sex standardization on the 2010 US population, mortality rate was 0.33 (CI 0.30–0.36) per 100,000. The time trend showed an increase of ALS mortality (p < 0.001). There was no statistical difference in age–sex standardized mortality rates per 100,000 when admixed was compared to white (p = 0.231) and black (p = 0.125). Differences reached statistical significance between admixed and other ethnics (p = 0.015). Our population-based study supports the hypothesis that ALS occurrence is lower in predominant admixed populations from Latin America compared to European and Northern American populations. Further studies are needed to clarify the role of ancestral origin in ALS susceptibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Migration has a huge demographic impact on European societies, especially when migrant populations have different levels and patterns of fertility, union formation and mortality, contributing to population size and composition. Nevertheless, comparative studies focusing on the association between migration and fertility, and how it evolves during the migration process, are still scarce. This work analyses the fertility of male migrants in six European countries: France, Germany, Italy, Spain, The Netherlands and United Kingdom. Using data from the EU-LFS (2005-2015), results show that migrants are more likely to have at least one child and larger family size than natives, except those coming from Eastern Europe and Central America. Nevertheless, time since migration is a crucial element to explain their fertility: migrants from any country of origin have lower propensities of parenthood immediately after migration, whereas their fertility increases over time spent in the host society. We then find evidence of disruption in the short-run and of socialization once migrants settle in the new society, especially in Southern European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Focuses on the demographic characteristics and population growth in Africa. Balance between population and resource requirements; Factors influencing population change and mortality; Interaction among population, culture and geography; Comparison of population levels and demographic characteristics in several African countries.

Focuses on key trends pertaining to population and the associated rates of birth and death worldwide. Factors influencing population growth; Effects of industrialization, agricultural revolution and existing economic conditions; Restoration of zero population growth; Issues on international migration.

The article presents a discussion about the unending relationship between the quality of life and population. It offers information and explanation about the changing economic implications of population growth. It mentions that world population will increase by 2.04 percent between the years 1965 and 1970. It emphasizes that the true potential for growth lies less in mortality reductions, and population will continue to increase because the number of births is much higher than the number of deaths occurring in the world.

We examined individual components of the Mediterranean Diet (Med) and evaluated their relative contribution to mortality rates in older women with frailty. A sample (N=10,431) included Women's Health Initiative Observational Study participants aged 65-84 y with complete frailty diagnostic criteria and dietary data. Frailty was assessed with modified Fried's criteria, and dietary data were collected through food frequency questionnaire. Over a mean follow-up of 12.4 y (range 3-21.0), 3,259 (31.2%) deaths occurred. Crude death rates demonstrated a decrease in mortality with higher intake of individual Med components. However, in the mutually adjusted models, most Med components on their own were not significantly associated with mortality. Exceptions were vegetables, nuts, and whole grains. A higher intake of vegetables, nuts, and whole grains were associated with a significantly decreased hazard of mortality, by 9% (P=0.02), 13% (P<0.001), and 17% (P<0.001), respectively. The relative contribution of these components to diet mortality associations were 21%, 42%, and 57% for vegetables, nuts, and whole grains, respectively. Subgroup analyses by chronic morbidity, smoking status, or excluding women with early death did not substantially change these results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Infections greatly influence the outcome of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients receiving intensive treatment. The aim of this study was to establish the incidence, microbial etiology, risk factors and prognosis of bloodstream infections (BSIs) in patients with AML and compare the results with the previous treatment protocol (AML-92). Methods: Registery data were gathered prospectively from 357 patients aged 16–65 years recruited on the AML-2003 treatment protocol between November 2003 and November 2011 during different treatment cycles. Results: Blood culture data were available on 977 treatment episodes, in which there were 503 BSIs (51%). The overall incidence rate (IR) for BSIs (per 1000 hospital days) was 16.7. Twenty patients (5.6%) died due to an infection and 16 of them (80%) had a BSI. The most commonly detected microbes (polymicrobial episodes included) in blood cultures were coagulase-negative staphylococci (CoNS, 24.7%), viridans group streptococci (VGS, 19.1%), enterococci (13.9%) and Enterobacteriacae group (25.9%). The etiology of BSIs varied greatly from treatment cycle to cycle. Conclusions: Enterococcal BSIs have increased compared to our previous treatment protocol, and they represent significant pathogens in blood cultures. Infection-related mortality has decreased despite the increase in the IR of BSIs. Enterococci seem to be an increasingly prominent pathogen underlying BSIs in the AML patients, especially during induction therapy (20%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives:We studied if patients surviving hospitalization for invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) have an increased long-term mortality. Methods:In this population-based case-control study, we assessed adults discharged from Aker University Hospital in Oslo, Norway, from 1993 to 2008 after surviving IPD. Mortality among the study population was compared to the general Norwegian population using standardized mortality ratios (SMR). Median follow-up time was 7.2 years (range 5 days to 21.1 years). Associated factors were also investigated. Results:We assessed 372 patients of whom 184 patients died during the observation period. Mortality was increased for 10 years after surviving hospitalization for IPD. Patients aged 18–64 years had a one-year SMR of 18.8 (95% CI: 10.0–32.1) and a 10-year SMR of 6·0 (95% CI: 4.4–8.0). SMR for the first five years among patients with and without underlying conditions were 10.7 (95% CI: 7.0–15.5) and 2.8 (95% CI: 0.9–6.4), respectively. Patients older than 65 years had a one-year SMR of 1·8 (95% CI: 1.2–2.7) and a 10-year SMR of 1.6 (95% CI: 1.4–1.9). Conclusions:Patients surviving IPD had an increased long-term mortality compared to the general population. This was particularly pronounced in patients with known underlying conditions. These findings suggest that IPD is a negative prognostic marker, and that a closer follow-up of patients who have suffered IPD is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article discusses the threat of energy shortage. This is attributed to overconsumption of rich countries and the lack of policy or combination of policies dealing with energy use. Annual growth rates in population and energy consumption for 1972 is presented. Trend shows that a decrease in energy use of rich countries accelerates the growth of per capita energy use in the poor countries and significantly reduce the environmental risks. To achieve this trend, reallocation of growth and implementation of programs that limits the population growths are recommended. However, the author states the proposed changes are infeasible, impractical, and unrealistic in the economic and political sense. He appeals to the political and economic scientists to devise ways that are sensible.

Forecasts of life expectancy (LE) have fuelled debates about the sustainability and dependability of pension and healthcare systems. Of relevance to these debates are inequalities in LE by education. In this paper, we present a method of forecasting LE for different educational groups within a population. As a basic framework we use the Li-Lee model that was developed to forecast mortality coherently for different groups. We adapted this model to distinguish between overall, sex-specific, and education-specific trends in mortality, and extrapolated these time trends in a flexible manner. We illustrate our method for the population aged 65 and over in the Netherlands, using several data sources and spanning different periods. The results suggest that LE is likely to increase for all educational groups, but that differences in LE between educational groups will widen. Sensitivity analyses illustrate the advantages of our proposed method. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Data on long-term prognosis after spondylodiscitis are scarce. The purpose of this study was to determine long-term mortality and the causes of death after spondylodiscitis.Methods: A nationwide, population-based cohort study using national registries of patients diagnosed with non-post-operative pyogenic spondylodiscitis from 1994–2009, alive 1 year after diagnosis (n = 1505). A comparison cohort from the background population individually matched for sex and age was identified (n = 7525). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were constructed and Poisson regression analyses used to estimate mortality rate ratios (MRR).Results: Three hundred and sixty-five patients (24%) and 1115 individuals from the comparison cohort (15%) died. Unadjusted MRR for spondylodiscitis patients was 1.76 (95% CI = 1.57–1.98) and 1.47 (95% CI = 1.30–1.66) after adjustment for comorbidity. No deaths were observed in 128 patients under the age of 16 years. Siblings of patients did not have increased long-term mortality compared with siblings of the individuals from the comparison cohort. This study observed increased mortality due to infections (MRR = 2.57), neoplasms (MRR = 1.40), endocrine (MRR = 3.72), cardiovascular (MRR = 1.62), respiratory (MRR = 1.71), gastrointestinal (MRR = 3.35), musculoskeletal (MRR = 5.39) and genitourinary diseases (MRR = 3.37), but also due to trauma, poisoning and external causes (MRR = 2.78), alcohol abuse-related diseases (MRR = 5.59) and drug abuse-related diseases (6 vs 0 deaths, MRR not calculable).Conclusions: Patients diagnosed with spondylodiscitis have increased long-term mortality, mainly due to comorbidities, particularly substance abuse. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

We show that Bayesian population reconstruction, a recent method for estimating past populations by age, works for data of widely varying quality. Bayesian reconstruction simultaneously estimates age-specific population counts, fertility rates, mortality rates, and net international migration flows from fragmentary data, while formally accounting for measurement error. As inputs, Bayesian reconstruction uses initial bias-reduced estimates of standard demographic variables. We reconstruct the female populations of three countries: Laos, a country with little vital registration data where population estimation depends largely on surveys; Sri Lanka, a country with some vital registration data; and New Zealand, a country with a highly developed statistical system and good quality vital registration data. In addition, we extend the method to countries without censuses at regular intervals. We also use it to assess the consistency of results between model life tables and available census data, and hence to compare different model life table systems. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Introduction: Oral anticoagulants (OAC) are the therapy of choice to prevent thromboembolism in patients at risk. Discontinuation of OAC prior to elective medical and surgical procedures may reduce the risk of bleeding, but may expose patients to increased risk of thromboembolism and ischemic stroke. The current public health burden of ischemic strokes associated with OAC discontinuation is unknown. We aimed to study the prevalence OAC discontinuation in patients who presented with acute ischemic stroke as well as the outcomes of these strokes.Methods: Retrospective cross-sectional study by intensive chart review of all acute ischemic stroke patients over 6 months in a large tertiary care community hospital.Results: A total of 431 patients with acute ischemic stroke were admitted during study period, of which 11 (2.6%) had OAC discontinuation within 120 days prior to the index admission. Several strokes occurred after relatively brief discontinuations. The patient group with discontinuation was older, had higher comorbidities and also had a clinically significant stroke and resulting higher mortality and morbidity.Conclusion: About 2.6% or 1 in every 38 of all ischemic stokes occurred after OAC discontinuation. Strokes occurring after OAC discontinuation also have higher mortality and morbidity. Our data suggest that any planned discontinuation of OAC, however brief, should be carefully considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The classic demographic transition model illustrates the pattern of birth and death rates over time, shifting from high and equivalent to low and equivalent, with population increasing sharply during this transition as a society industrialises. However, the model has a limited temporal frame and cultural scope. It also overlooks that human population trends follow agricultural productivity. Because food is an essential carrying capacity variable and a fundamental economic driver, as food availability is increased the population increases leading to severe biodiversity loss. The current analysis expands the classic model, taking into account all of human history, and highlighting the basic carrying capacity foundations of fertility changes. This comprehensive model shows birth and death rates in Stage A as low and equivalent before the advent of the agricultural revolution. Stage A is followed by Stages B and C, in which the increasing birth rate precedes the increasing death rate, causing a rise in population. The stages then progress as in the classic demographic transition model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Having reduced its fertility rate over the past 40 years, Indonesia has reached a new demographic crossroad. Its fertility rate is now around 2.5 births per woman, which, if sustained, would add substantial numbers to Indonesia's population in the future. There are concerns within Indonesia that the present level of population growth is an obstacle to continued economic development and, accordingly, that fertility should be reduced to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman as soon as possible. Yet a comparative perspective indicates that countries such as Singapore, Japan, and Thailand are concerned about the effects that their very low rates of fertility are having on their labour forces and their rates of population ageing. This article suggests that with the right policy settings Indonesia can avoid this outcome yet continue to reduce its fertility. It discusses the implications of Indonesia's population growth and distribution for its economy, as well as the poor quality of demographic data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative income–health hypothesis postulates that income distribution is an important determinant of population health, but the age and sex patterns of this association are not well known. We tested the relative income–health hypothesis using panel data collected for 21 developed countries over 30 years. Net of trends in gross domestic product per head and unobserved period and country factors, income inequality measured by the Gini index is positively associated with the mortality of males and females at ages 1–14 and 15–49, and with the mortality of females at ages 65–89 albeit less strongly than for the younger age groups. These findings suggest that policies to decrease income inequality may improve health, especially that of children and young-to-middle-aged men and women. The mechanisms behind the income inequality–mortality association remain unknown and should be the focus of future research. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

When pension systems are contrasted it is common to use simplified demographic models, such as overlapping generation models with time-invariant mortality. Breaking with this tradition, we show that for a population with increasing longevity, the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system may be more advantageous than a funded system (FS). Increasing longevity favours the PAYG system because for the workers living longer at retirement than current retirees, it is less costly to fund others’ current pensions than their own. At present, the effect amounts to around 15 per cent in terms of the dependency ratio, or six more years at work in the FS, or 1 per cent per annum in terms of the real interest rate. In most developed countries the effect substantially exceeds that of the usually studied biological interest rate. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article compares and contrasts the problems of health and mortality of the population in Russia and other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is a lack of reliable data in developing countries to inform policy and optimise resource allocation. Health and socio-demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) have the potential to address this gap. Mortality levels and trends have previously been documented in rural South Africa. However, complex space--time clustering of mortality, determinants, and their impact has not been fully examined. Objectives: To integrate advanced methods enhance the understanding of the dynamics of mortality in space--time, to identify mortality risk factors and population attributable impact, to relate disparities in risk factor distributions to spatial mortality risk, and thus, to improve policy planning and resource allocation. Methods: Agincourt HDSS supplied data for the period 1992--2008. Advanced spatial techniques were used to identify significant age-specific mortality 'hotspots' in space--time. Multivariable Bayesian models were used to assess the effects of the most significant covariates on mortality. Disparities in risk factor profiles in identified hotspots were assessed. Results: Increasing HIV-related mortality and a subsequent decrease possibly attributable to antiretroviral therapy introduction are evident in this rural population. Distinct space--time clustering and variation (even in a small geographic area) of mortality were observed. Several known and novel risk factors were identified, and population impact was quantified. Significant differences in the risk factor profiles of the identified 'hotspots' included ethnicity; maternal, partner, and household deaths; household head demographics; migrancy; education; and poverty. Conclusions: A complex interaction of highly attributable multilevel factors continues to demonstrate differential space--time influences on mortality risk (especially for HIV). High-risk households and villages displayed differential risk factor profiles. This integrated approach could prove valuable to decision makers. Tailored interventions for specific child and adult high-risk mortality areas are needed, such as preventing vertical transmission, ensuring maternal survival, and improving water and sanitation infrastructure. This framework can be applied in other settings within the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Coastal populations have always been exposed to socio-cultural and natural vulnerability. The correlates between these coastal populations and their selection potentials have not been previously described. Aim: To describe selection potentials, their trend and extent among coastal and non-coastal populations of the Indian continent. Subjects and methods: Data on fertility and mortality differentials among five coastal populations were collected from 448 women of Orissa and Goa. Selection potential was computed. In addition, 48 studies among 100 different populations of India were reviewed for similar parameters, for comparison. Results: Total index of selection ( It) varied from 0.221-0.417 in the population of Orissa; whereas the population of Goa showed a moderate index of selection. Regression analysis showed that among the coastal population the contribution of index of mortality ( Im) is higher (92.5%) in total selection index ( It) as compared to non-coastal populations (56.4%). After 1991, there was a radical shift in the role of mortality in the entire region. Simultaneously, the selection intensity ( It) has gradually declined. Conclusion: There is a significant difference in the extent and process of natural selection among coastal and non-coastal populations. Mortality is playing a greater role in the total selection intensity of coastal populations, although the trend is declining in the entire region and reversal in the roles of Im and index of fertility ( If) is witnessed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, the literature on virgin soil epidemics has dominated scholarly discussions of Indian population decline in colonial America. Illness and disease – and the high mortality and low fertility that accompanied them – go a long way towards explaining the dramatic decline of the Indian population in Alta California after Spanish colonization began in 1769. But, there are myriad other factors that contributed to Indian depopulation in Spanish and Mexican California, and these have largely escaped the study of historians. Death cause information listed in the burial registers of the California missions and now available through the Early California Population Project suggests that Indian population decline in California before 1850 was accelerated by external factors, such as acts of violence, natural disasters, dangers associated with animals and insects, as well as work- and transportation-related mishaps. These external factors do not in themselves explain Indian population decline, but they add considerably to our understanding of life and death in early California and by extension other corners of colonial America, and they give us a richer understanding of how Indians lived, worked, died, and even prayed in Spanish and Mexican California. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Mortality decline has historically been largely a result of reductions in the level of mortality at all ages. A number of leading researchers on ageing, however, suggest that the next revolution of longevity increase will be the result of slowing down the rate of ageing. In this paper, we show mathematically how varying the pace of senescence influences life expectancy. We provide a formula that holds for any baseline hazard function. Our result is analogous to Keyfitz's ‘entropy’ relationship for changing the level of mortality. Interestingly, the influence of the shape of the baseline schedule on the effect of senescence changes is the complement of that found for level changes. We also provide a generalized formulation that mixes level and slope effects. We illustrate the applicability of these models using recent mortality decline in Japan and the problem of period to cohort translation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Background: The dearth of health and demographic data in sub-Saharan Africa from vital registration systems and its impact on effective planning for health and socio-economic development is widely documented. Health and Demographic Surveillance Systems have the capacity to address the dearth of quality data for policy making in resource-poor settings. Objective: This article demonstrates the utility of the Kintampo Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS) by showing the patterns and trends of population change from 2005 to 2009 in the Kintampo North Municipality and Kintampo South districts of Ghana through data obtained from the KHDSS biannual update rounds. Design: Basic demographic rates for fertility, mortality, and migration were computed by year. School enrolment was computed as a percentage in school by age and sex for 618 year-olds. Socio-economic status was derived by use of Principal Components Analysis on household assets. Results: Over the period, an earlier fertility decline was reversed in 2009; mortality declined slightly for all agegroups, and a significant share of working-age population was lost through out-migration. Large minorities of children of school-going age are not in school. Socio-economic factors are shown to be important determinants of fertility and mortality. Conclusion: Strengthening the capacity of HDSSs could offer added value to evidence-driven policymaking at local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study is focused on the assessment of potential health benefits by meeting the air quality limit values (2008/50/CE) for short-term PM10 exposure. For this purpose, the methodology of the WHO for Health Impact Assessment and APHEIS guidelines for data collection were applied to Porto Metropolitan Area, Portugal. Additionally, an improved methodology using population mobility data is proposed in this work to analyse number of persons exposed. In order to obtain representative background concentrations, an innovative approach to process air quality time series was implemented. The results provide the number of attributable cases prevented annually by reducing PM10 concentration. An intercomparison of two approaches to process input data for the health risk analysis provides information on sensitivity of the applied methodology. The findings highlight the importance of taking into account spatial variability of the air pollution levels and population mobility in the health impact assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses possible answers to the question of what constitutes different types of change of state organizations. Drawing upon contributions from organization theory and public administration, classifications of different types of births, survivals, and deaths, are discussed and outlined, providing a mapping of organizational change in state administration along the horizontal as well as the vertical dimension. As an illustration, the article also shows how a detailed classification has been used in the Norwegian State Administration Database. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Russian population is characterized by both aging and high male mortality rates, and this presents special challenges for policymakers who need to find ways to develop the Russian economy and society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Starting with a view of war as a significant population health problem, this article explores the roles of health workers in relation to violent conflict. Four different roles are identified, defined by goals and values - military, development, humanitarian and peace. In addition, four dimensions of health work are seen as cross-cutting factors influencing health work in violent conflict - whether the health worker is an insider or outsider to the conflict, whether they are oriented to primary, secondary or tertiary prevention of the mortality and morbidity of war, whether they take an individual clinical or a population health approach, and whether they are oriented to policy and whole-sector change or not. This article explores the nature of these roles, the influence of these cross-cutting dimensions, the challenges of each role and finally commonalities and possibilities for cooperation between roles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We describe several population models exposed to a mild life-long sexually transmitted disease, i.e. without significant increased mortality among infected individuals and providing no immunity/recovery. We then modify these models to include non-reproductive groups consisting of those isolated from sexual contact and those who are sexually active but infertile due to choice, medical or other reasons. We analyse the potential effect on the dynamics of the population. We are interested in how the isolated class may curb the growth of the infected group while keeping the healthy population at acceptable levels. We also analyse the difference between being sexually active and abstained within the non-reproductive class and its impact on the epidemic reproductive number and the nature of the bifurcation around the disease-free equilibrium. We provide a comparison with our models introduced in a previous article, which include only the isolated from sexual contact class. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. The Sami are the Indigenous people of the northernmost parts of Sweden, Finland and Norway, and of the Kola Peninsula of Russia. The present review summarizes the main results from studies on cancer morbidity and mortality among the Sami and discusses these results in relation to exposure of known risk factors. Study Design. Literature review. Methods. A systematic search over the time period 1966-2008 for relevant articles was conducted on MEDLINE. Updates and recalculations of some of the results from the original data were also done. Results. Nine articles whose main focus is on cancer incidence or mortality among the Sami were identified. In all studies, the overall incidence of cancer or cancer mortality was lower among the Sami in comparison with the national populations. The differences were less striking in relation to regional reference populations, but the rates were still significantly lower for all populations of Sami, except for Swedish Sami women. Beyond the general trend of a lower cancer incidence among the Sami, there were some notable differences between the various Sami subpopulations. Conclusions. The risk of developing and dying from cancer is low among the Sami. A life-style that includes cancer-protective factors, such as certain dietary components and physical activity, is the most likely explanation for the lower incidence of cancer among the Sami. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Primary objective: To investigate mortality trends in functionally dependent adults following traumatic brain injury (TBI). Methods: Data for 966 consecutive admissions to a specialist TBI rehabilitation service were reviewed. Details for 69 subjects who were functionally dependent at rehabilitation discharge were cross-referenced against the State Government Death Register. The observed mortality rate was compared to an equivalent population sample derived from Australian Life Tables. Results: Twenty-five subjects (36%) were deceased at an average 10.5 years post-injury (SD 5 years; range 1.7-18.8 years). The observed numbers of deaths far exceeded the expected population figure (1.9) for the same period (1989-2007) yielding a standardized mortality rate of 13.2. Mortality trends suggested a bimodal distribution, with more deaths in the first 5 years post-injury followed by no further deaths until 9 years post-injury. Conclusions: Mortality in this functionally-dependent group was significantly associated with age, male sex and degree of disability at discharge. The bimodal distribution of mortality data suggests different contributory mechanisms to early vs. late mortality in this group. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An epidemic model with time delay is proposed to incorporate population dispersal between patches, where time delay arises very naturally. We establish a threshold above which the disease is uniformly persistent. Sufficient conditions that lead to the extinction of the disease are obtained. We give sufficient condition for the existence of the positive equilibrium. We also show that when the positive equilibrium exists, it is globally asymptotically stable. Some examples are given to illustrate the effect of population dispersal, time delay and dispersal-related mortality. It is found that a disease may spread when the population migrates in two patches, even though it dies out in some isolated patches. It is also found that population dispersal can reduce the disease spread for strong dispersal rate, large time delay and dispersal-related mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use data from the 1931, 1941, and 1951 censuses of India and the 1951 census of Pakistan to examine the demographic consequences of Partition in the Punjab in 1947. Had growth rates for the period 1931-41 for the Punjab as a whole continued to 1951, the population of the Punjab would have been 2.9 million larger than that recorded in 1951. Population losses from migration and mortality above age 20 were approximately 2.7 million greater between 1941 and 1951 than would have been predicted by loss rates between 1931 and 1941. We estimate a net Partition-related population movement out of the combined Punjab of about 400,000. We conclude from several lines of analysis that Partition-related population losses in the Punjab, either from deaths or unrecorded migration, were in the range 2.3-3.2 million. Partition was also marked by a dramatic religious homogenization at the district level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the first part of the paper, we consider the wide range of extrapolative stochastic mortality models that have been proposed over the last 15-20 years. A number of models that we consider are framed in discrete time and place emphasis on the statistical aspects of modelling and forecasting. We discuss how these models can be evaluated, compared and contrasted. We also discuss a discrete-time market model that facilitates valuation of mortality-linked contracts with embedded options. We then review several approaches to modelling mortality in continuous time. These models tend to be simpler in nature, but make it possible to examine the potential for dynamic hedging of mortality risk. Finally, we review a range of financial instruments (traded and over-the-counter) that could be used to hedge mortality risk. Some of these, such as mortality swaps, already exist, while others anticipate future developments in the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the mortality among the Swedish voluntarily insured is described. It is based on calculations of the mortality among the Swedish insured from 2001 to 2005, and in the total Swedish population. The total population data has been used to compute the mortality trend with the Lee-Carter model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new market for so-called mortality derivatives is now appearing with survivor swaps (also called mortality swaps), longevity bonds and other specialized solutions. The development of these new financial instruments is triggered by the increased focus on the systematic mortality risk inherent in life insurance contracts, and their main focus is thus to allow the life insurance companies to hedge their systematic mortality risk. At the same time, this new class of financial contract is interesting from an investor's point of view, since it increases the possibility for an investor to diversify the investment portfolio. The systematic mortality risk stems from the uncertainty related to the future development of the mortality intensities. Mathematically, this uncertainty is described by modeling the underlying mortality intensities via stochastic processes. We consider two different portfolios of insured lives, where the underlying mortality intensities are correlated, and study the combined financial and mortality risk inherent in a portfolio of general life insurance contracts. In order to hedge this risk, we allow for investments in survivor swaps and derive risk-minimizing strategies in markets where such contracts are available. The strategies are evaluated numerically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents the reference mortality model K2004 approved by the Actuarial Society of Finland and the technique that was implemented in developing it. Initially, I will present the historical development of individual mortality rates in Finland. Then, the requirements posed for a modern mortality modelling will be presented. Reference mortality model K2004 is based on total population mortality rates, which were adjusted to correspond with that portion of the population that has a life insurance policy. First, the model presents a margin of the observed life insurance mortality rate in the total population with a Lee-Carter method together with a forecast, where the downward trend in mortality rates is expected to continue at the rate illustrated since the 1960s. Then, the mortality rate has been adjusted into life insurance mortality per age so that it corresponds to the differences observed between total population and the portion of population that has a life insurance during 1991-2001. Finally, a cohort and gender-specific functional margin will be presented to obtained data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the accuracy of the United Nations' population projections since the late 1950s for six South-east Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. The study uses available projected and estimated age-structured data as well as published assumptions on fertility and mortality trends. A decomposition of the total projection errors into base errors (wrong estimates of demographic conditions at the beginning of projection interval) and change errors (wrong assumptions about the trends) shows that the base errors have generally been decreasing over time presumably as a consequence of improving demographic monitoring systems. The change errors, however, do not seem to decline over time. This seems to be due to a number of country-specific cultural and political factors whose effect was not anticipated as well as to a lack of good theories with predictive power. These findings suggest the need to give more explicit attention to the treatment of uncertainty in future population projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Motor neuron disease (MND) mortality rates are rising in Europe and the USA. The most comprehensive UK study was conducted more than 15 years ago. This study examines trends in mortality from MND in England & Wales, and Scotland, between 1975 and 2004. Age, gender, and cause-specific mortality rates were calculated for the period 1975-2004 using national data from England & Wales, and Scotland. Rates were directly age-standardized to the European standard population. Trends in mortality rates over time were examined for men and women separately, as well as by the age groups 0-59 years, and 60 or more years. MND mortality rates rose steadily over the 30-year period 1975-2004 in both sexes in England & Wales, and Scotland. There is a clear upward trend in all four groups (p for trend <0.001). All increases were largely restricted to the age group 60 years and above, with rates showing increases of 70-80%, and no evidence of a flattening of this trajectory. Rates for the 0-59 years age group remained stable over the period. There is evidence of a narrowing of the male-female gap in mortality rates for the age group over 60 years in England and Wales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Indonesia's rapidly growing mega-urban regions of Jabodetabek (Jakarta Extended Metropolitan Region), Bandung and Surabaya each have a large and socio-economically heterogeneous population. The 2000 Census presents evidence that substantial spatial and socio-economic inequalities in under-five mortality risk exist in these mega-urban regions. Differences in patterns of birth attendant utilization likely contribute to these inequalities. Multilevel multinomial logistic regression of data primarily from the National Socio-economic Survey (SUSENAS) reveals that use of a skilled birth attendant is highly associated with mother's education. Highly skilled assistance is more related to the enabling factor of household expenditure quintile. The findings provide evidence for efforts to help reduce inequalities in early age mortality risk through improved access to trained birth assistance, in addition to other interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, sociological examinations of genetics, therapeutic cloning, neuroscience and tissue engineering have suggested that 'life itself' is currently being transformed through technique with profound implications for the ways in which we understand and govern ourselves and others. In this paper, I argue that a growing focus on frontier technologies in the life sciences in discussions about bio-power today has come at the cost of empirical investigations into how, for example, 'quality of life' came to be a crucial object of bio-power in the 20th century. Just as Foucault outlined the emergence of a multiple body -- the population -- in the 18th century, I suggest, building on work by Rose, Rabinow and Hacking, that we can also discern the emergence of a multiple subjectivity -- state of civilisation, public opinion, human capability, national attitudes, culture -- as scientific and political problem. If bio-politics deals with the population as a biological and political problem, then what we might think of as an anthropo-politics deals with a collective subjectivity as a psychological, sociological and/or anthropological problem that can be measured, mapped out and intervened upon in much the same way that mortality rates, life expectancy or morbidity rates can. By analysing the concrete ways in which human progress has been globally measured and taxonomised in the past two centuries or so, I will show how global stratifications of countries according to their states of 'civilisation', 'development' and more recently 'human capability', have relied not just on the population as biological object, but also on a collective subjectivity. Using this analysis, I will go on to conclude that the politics of life is in no way limited to biological contestations and problems, but equally importantly includes psychological, sociological and anthropological problematisations about what a 'good', 'healthy' or 'quality' life is and how they might be measured. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mortality forecasts are critical information for assessing the health of a population and are necessary for making informed decisions about how best to direct health-related resources and activities. Timeliness in making health statistics available is crucial to identify and address current health problems. Being motivated to meet these needs, we propose a method to forecast the number of cause-age specific deaths through a two random processes model. Unlike the previous methods, the new method incorporates both cross-sectional and longitudinal correlations into our model without a high-dimensional problem. A bootstrap confidence interval is presented to measure the validity of our model and to detect an unusual occurrence of deaths. Our data analysis demonstrates that our method gives promising results compared with the true final counts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]