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Treadmill of production (TOP) theory and ecological modernization theory (EMT) are adapted to a middle-range theorization of energy politics, specifying the conditions that each theory would best apply to struggles over the energy system. It is hypothesized that EMT will prevail when there are high levels of public awareness of an issue, a record of past regulation, a threat of future regulation, and disunity of the business class; and that TOP power relations are more likely to prevail are low public consciousness, absence of past regulation, low threat of future regulation, and high levels of business unity. The usefulness of this contextualized approach is explored using a historical qualitative case study of the struggle in the United States to implement national mandatory and voluntary definitions of energy efficiency for home appliances. The implications of the findings are discussed in light of efforts to transform energy systems. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]