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The Paper River is a classroom simulation designed to examine a negative externality generated by a productive process that elicits a Coasian solution. Previous experiments designed by Hazlett (1995), Nugent (1993, 1997), and Bergstrom and Miller (1997, 179–99) focus on how pollution emission rights can be efficiently allocated by the market through property rights. Although these experiments touch on property rights in demonstrating how emission rights are a more efficient means of reducing pollution than government imposed limits, they do not address Coase's Theorem directly. Classroom experiments that demonstrate Coase's Theorem include those by Delemeester and Neral (1995, 115–19) and Stodder (1996). In these activities, students imagine they are either the creator or recipient of a hypothetical externality. Although this approach is useful for conveying Coase's Theorem, it does not give students the opportunity to generate and experience the externality directly. In the Paper River, students create and experience an externality first hand and then conceptualize a correction procedure that is consistent with Coase's Theorem. The unique nature of this simulation allows students to be involved directly in the externality. In addition, it simulates an actual environmental problem, which will enable students to identify more easily other examples of externalities that affect our society, such as endangered species, destruction of the rainforests, and preservation of natural habitats. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) are a central instrument in international development cooperation and of key importance in guiding donors' policies towards southern recipients. However, many aspects of the PRSP have been criticised by a variety of development stakeholders. A checklist of 85 questions has been developed to analyse the inclusion of aspects of sustainable development in PRSPs and to point to sustainability challenges and opportunities. It thus facilitates targeted advice and quality improvements. The checklist was applied to a selection of 12 PRSPs of developing countries. The results reveal an insufficient integration of the ecosystem services concept, of biodiversity and of climate issues. Property rights, gender issues, water and energy are as a rule well elaborated. PRSPs show significant variation in the integration of environmental sustainability issues. Sustainability assessments can contribute to significant improvements between first and second generation PRSPs provided the assessments are supported by a strong institutional framework and a dedicated political commitment towards sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite questions surrounding their reliability, much of the financial literacy literature continues to rely on simple metrics – without checking whether using an alternative might yield different findings. The present paper does just that: we replicate two prior studies and substitute the Standard & Poor's indicator originally used with the Big Three and OECD/INFE metrics. The results are disconcerting. In the first study, many of the relationships between national culture and country-level financial literacy become weakly significant or disappear altogether. The second study is also of a cross-country nature but analyses the impact of financial literacy on financial inclusion. Here, the magnitude of the coefficient on financial literacy in the OLS regressions decreases substantially once we use alternative metrics. In one case, the coefficient drops by no less than 69 per cent with the OECD/INFE metric, and by between one-third and half with the Big Three. Even more concerning, the Instrumental Variable regressions show no causal relationship anymore. These findings are a strong signal that the literature would benefit from revisiting several key papers, especially those relying on cross-country data. Impact statement: While research employing short financial literacy tests has expanded almost exponentially over recent decades, studies questioning whether these tests are overly simplistic remain relatively scarce. Our work contributes to this emerging literature. Specifically, we replicate two existing studies—one examining the antecedents of financial literacy and another its consequences—and replace the original literacy indicators with metrics that are supposed to be similar. We find that many results either vanish entirely or weaken considerably. We hope this paper inspires further scrutiny of financial literacy tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The authors provide a guide to the thinking of the editorial collective for the Content section of the Journal of Economic Education (JEE). They discuss the type of papers they are looking for, what in their view constitutes a good paper, and how their review process works. They also provide some examples of what works (and what does not). Although they focus specifically on Content articles for the JEE, many of the general issues discussed may carry over to other sections of the JEE and to journals more generally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents the different perspectives on important issues discussed in archaeological inquiry. Distinction between core beliefs and models; Assumption of the application of model from classical economics to an archaeological problems; Requirement of a recursive relationship between ideas and observations in learning the process of doing archaeology.

This study explores the challenges faced by Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in India, with a specific focus on export-related issues, including quality standards, document acquisition, and compliance with foreign regulations. Using a sample of 163 MSME service providers from 2019 to 2023, data were collected through structured questionnaires and analysed using ANOVA to assess the significant differences in challenges faced by micro, small, and medium enterprises. The findings reveal that medium-sized enterprises face the highest percentage of difficulties related to document compliance and quality standards, while micro and small enterprises encounter distinct challenges in immigration documentation and export readiness. The study underscores the importance of targeted government support and policy interventions to address these challenges and enhance the export capabilities of MSMEs. Limitations of the study include a narrow geographic focus and reliance on quantitative data, which may not fully capture the complexity of export challenges. Future research should expand the scope to other regions and integrate qualitative methods to provide a more comprehensive analysis. This research contributes to the literature by highlighting the export-related barriers in the MSME sector and offering insights for policymakers to improve their international competitiveness. IMPACT STATEMENT: The research paper "MSME Market Presence and Competitiveness in a Global Economy" examines the crucial role of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in India's economic landscape, with a focus on their contribution to Gross Value Added (GVA) and export performance. The study analyzes the changing trends in the MSME sector's GVA share and export market presence from 2019 to 2023, highlighting the sector's challenges and opportunities. A significant finding is the decline in the export share of MSME-related products, which underscores the impact of export-related challenges, such as the lack of awareness about product quality requirements in foreign markets. This research emphasizes the need for enhanced support and targeted interventions to address the issues facing MSMEs, particularly in export activities. By fostering better awareness, creating a supportive policy framework, and providing specialized assistance, the paper suggests that India's MSME sector can significantly improve its global market competitiveness. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of how MSMEs can be empowered to drive sustainable economic growth, strengthen market presence, and enhance India's position in the global economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Capital inflows, such as foreign aid, can serve as a means to enhance infrastructure development in developing countries. This suggests that foreign aid might have an impact on the level of industrialization in African nations. While existing studies indicate that foreign aid can affect the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector by appreciating the real exchange rate, the veracity of this claim relies on empirical evidence. This paper explores the influence of aid on manufacturing value added using time-series data spanning from 1990 to 2018 for 27 African countries. Employing a panel vector autoregression technique and generating associated impulse response functions, the study scrutinizes the interactions between foreign aid and manufacturing. The analysis is conducted on both the full dataset and subsamples disaggregated based on the income levels of countries. The results indicate that foreign aid acts as a stimulus for manufacturing, primarily through a sustained depreciation of the real exchange rate. This finding holds true for both the overall dataset and the subset of low-income countries. The study attributes this phenomenon to the strategic utilization of aid to enhance infrastructure, leading to a reduction in the price of non-tradables relative to tradables. Consequently, this enhances the profitability and output capacity of the manufacturing sector in African countries. In essence, the results suggest that foreign aid plays a role in influencing or stimulating industrialization in African countries. The study concludes with a discussion on the implications of these findings for industrial policy in African nations. Impact statement: This paper determines the extent to which foreign aid influences the level of industrialization in African countries. By using time-series data spanning from 1990 to 2018 for 27 African countries, a panel vector autoregression technique and generating associated impulse response functions, the study scrutinizes the interactions between foreign aid and the level of industrialization in African countries. The analysis is conducted on both the full dataset and subsamples disaggregated based on the income levels of countries. Our results negate the general perception that foreign aid inflows harm industrialization in developing countries, which can affect the competitiveness and profitability of manufacturing and lead to deindustrialization. However, this perception has been one-sided because foreign aid can also be used to boost infrastructure in developing countries. The paper helps to unearth the dominant effect of foreign aid in this context and samples African countries because they are generally less developed and industrialized and stand to benefit from foreign aid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the relationship between health and economic growth using a dynamic panel with threshold effect and endogeneity. The study uses a sample of 136 countries over the period of 1965–2015 and the results indicate that the relationship between health and economic growth is nonlinear. The findings suggest that the impact of health on economic growth is only positive in countries that have attained minimum benchmarks of health improvement. These findings carry significant policy implications. Low-income countries need a comprehensive approach, encompassing multiple factors, such as education enhancement, productivity boost, and entrepreneurship promotion, that go beyond health promotion to foster substantial economic growth. In countries already attaining satisfactory health outcomes, policies prioritizing improved health outcomes, through directing investments towards Research and Development can serve as an effective means to promote sustainable economic growth. IMPACT STATEMENT: The paper provides an in-depth analysis of the relationship between health and economic growth. By explicitly examining potential non-linearities and thresholds, the study offers insights into how variations in health status may influence economic growth differently across different thresholds or stages of development. By identifying the key health thresholds, the research provides policymakers with actionable insights to allocate resources effectively. This guidance is critical for crafting targeted policies that maximize the impact of health investments on economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Differences in the behaviour of asset prices depending on data frequency have not been thoroughly investigated in the literature despite their possible importance. In particular, high-frequency data might contain more information about financial assets because they are updated more rapidly in response to news. This paper explores persistence in high-frequency data (and also daily and monthly ones) in the case of the EuroStoxx 50 futures prices over the period from 2002 to 2018 (720 million trade records) using R/S analysis and the Hurst exponent as a measure of persistence. The results show that persistence is sensitive to the data frequency. More specifically, monthly data are highly persistent, daily ones follow a random walk, and intraday ones are anti-persistent. In addition, persistence varies over time. These findings imply that the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) only holds in the case of daily data, whilst it is possible to make abnormal profits using trading strategies based on reversal strategies at the intraday frequency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Data entry at the point of collection using mobile electronic devices may make data-handling processes more efficient and cost-effective, but there is little literature to document and quantify gains, especially for longitudinal surveillance systems. Objective: To examine the potential of mobile electronic devices compared with paper-based tools in health data collection. Methods: Using data from 961 households from the Rufiji Household and Demographic Survey in Tanzania, the quality and costs of data collected on paper forms and electronic devices were compared. We also documented, using qualitative approaches, field workers, whom we called ‘enumerators’, and households’ members on the use of both methods. Existing administrative records were combined with logistics expenditure measured directly from comparison households to approximate annual costs per 1,000 households surveyed. Results: Errors were detected in 17% (166) of households for the paper records and 2% (15) for the electronic records (p < 0.001). There were differences in the types of errors (p = 0.03). Of the errors occurring, a higher proportion were due to accuracy in paper surveys (79%, 95% CI: 72%, 86%) compared with electronic surveys (58%, 95% CI: 29%, 87%). Errors in electronic surveys were more likely to be related to completeness (32%, 95% CI 12%, 56%) than in paper surveys (11%, 95% CI: 7%, 17%).The median duration of the interviews (‘enumeration’), per household was 9.4 minutes (90% central range 6.4, 12.2) for paper and 8.3 (6.1, 12.0) for electronic surveys (p = 0.001). Surveys using electronic tools, compared with paper-based tools, were less costly by 28% for recurrent and 19% for total costs. Although there were technical problems with electronic devices, there was good acceptance of both methods by enumerators and members of the community. Conclusions: Our findings support the use of mobile electronic devices for large-scale longitudinal surveys in resource-limited settings. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Discusses the concepts of profit and paper profit of economist Michal Kalecki. Factors determining profit; Characteristics of paper profit; Decisions determining paper profit; Interrelations among profit components; Role of saving by wage earners; Trendlike, cyclical and anti-cyclical components of profit; Profits and profit components in critical years.

The article presents a call for papers for the meeting titled "Annual Allied Social Sciences Association Meetings" to be held on January 4-6, 2008 at New Orleans, Louisiana with a theme about inequality, democracy, and the economy. The Association for Social Economics members and nonmembers are encouraged to submit proposals for the New Orleans ASE program. The papers can be send by email of 300 words or less by May 1, 2007 to John Davis of University of Amsterdam and Marquette University. Guide questions are also included.

Presents a summary of the contents of economist Sidney Weintraub's professional and personal papers, including unpublished academic work and correspondence, which is available to scholars in the Perkins Library of Duke University in Durham, North Carolina. Promotion of the merits of a tax-based incomes policy; Early versions or drafts of works later published; Newspaper and magazine articles.

This paper considers the impact of global risk aversion and domestic macroeconomic factors on the dynamic conditional correlations between the South African stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. Our first stage findings using the DCC-GARCH model show that correlations between the selected markets are significantly dynamic over time. We further show that the correlations of asset pairs do not fall for extended periods during crisis periods, implying only short-lived increase in diversification benefits. Further analysis using the OLS regression model shows that global risk aversion and domestic macroeconomic factors have a heterogenous impact on the dynamic correlations of asset pairs. Consequent to these findings, this study advocates for the adoption of dynamic asset allocation and diversification strategies necessitating the periodic optimisation of portfolios as asset correlations, global risk aversion and domestic macroeconomics evolve. The study offers valuable insights and policy recommendations for investment practitioners, policymakers, and academics. Impact statement: This research provides valuable insights into how global risk aversion and domestic macroeconomic factors influence the relationships between South African stock, bond, and foreign exchange markets. The study demonstrates that these correlations are highly dynamic, emphasising the need for investors to adopt responsive and flexible investment strategies. The findings offer crucial practical guidance for portfolio optimisation, risk management, and informed investment decisions in a volatile economic environment. This work is significant for its potential to inform investment practices and policy, ensuring they are aligned with the evolving financial landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this paper is to investigate the relationship between the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and profitability in the banking sector of Vietnam, focusing on determining how LCR impacts profitability while identifying the optimal level of LCR that balances liquidity management and profitability. The study uses a sample of 20 banks from Q1 2015 to Q4 2022. Profitability is measured through Return on Assets (ROA) and Net Interest Margin (NIM). Employing a system GMM estimator to explore the quadratic effect of LCR on profitability, the results demonstrate an inverted U-shaped relationship. Initially, increases in LCR enhance profitability, reflecting better liquidity management. However, beyond optimal points (approximately 5.89 for ROA and 7.47 for NIM), further increases in LCR lead to diminishing returns, indicating that excessively high liquidity buffers impose opportunity costs and reduce profitability. These findings underscore the importance of balancing liquidity and profitability in banking operations. This study is novel in its use of the system GMM estimator to investigate the quadratic relationship between LCR and profitability in the Vietnamese banking sector, offering new insights into how banks can optimize liquidity management to enhance profitability. Unlike previous studies, this paper identifies specific optimal LCR thresholds for ROA and NIM, providing actionable benchmarks for banking operations. IMPACT STATEMENT: This study contributes valuable insights into the relationship between the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and profitability within the Vietnamese banking sector. By identifying a specific optimal LCR threshold for Vietnamese banks, the research offers actionable benchmarks that enable financial institutions to balance liquidity and profitability more effectively. These findings underscore an inverted U-shaped relationship between LCR and profitability, wherein initial increases in LCR enhance bank performance through better liquidity management. However, profitability diminishes as LCR exceeds optimal levels, highlighting the potential opportunity costs associated with maintaining excessive liquidity. This study's application of a dynamic two-step Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator further provides a rigorous and robust analysis, addressing endogeneity concerns often present in banking studies. Ultimately, these insights equip Vietnamese banks and regulatory bodies with practical tools to enhance financial stability and operational efficiency in a dynamic economic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investment, whatever its nature, is an indispensable channel for increasing economic growth. The aim of this paper is to empirically study the effect of institutional quality and investment on economic growth in WAEMU countries. The methodological approach is based on a dynamic panel model covering the period from 2005 to 2020 for all eight WAEMU countries. Results are obtained using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS). The results show a significant effect of governance indicators and public investment on GDP per capita. Furthermore, the results show that governance indicators modify the effect of investment (public and FDI) on GDP per capita. These results imply that efforts must be made to take full advantage of the positive effects of investment. As the quality of governance is a key factor in attracting and securing investment, policymakers must adopt strategies to improve governance indicators if they are to achieve their growth objectives. The originality of this research lies in highlighting the effects of Institutional quality and investment on economic growth through a DOLS. IMPACT STATEMENT: Investment is an indispensable channel for increasing economic growth. The goal of our research paper is to empirically study the effect of institutional quality and investment on economic growth in WAEMU countries. The results show a significant effect of governance indicators and public investment on GDP per capita. Furthermore, the results show that governance indicators modify the effect of investment (public and FDI) on GDP per capita. These results imply that efforts must be made to take full advantage of the positive effects of investment. As the quality of governance is a key factor in attracting and securing investment, policymakers must adopt strategies to improve governance indicators if they are to achieve their growth objectives. The originality of this research lies in highlighting the effects of Institutional quality and investment on economic growth through a DOLS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applied the Cobb-Douglas production function to look into the impact of global crude oil prices on agricultural output in Ghana. Annual time-series secondary data spanning from 1980 to 2020 were utilized, sourced from the World Development Indicators and the US Energy Information Administration. The variables employed included agriculture value added per gross domestic product (GDP), international Brent crude oil prices, agricultural employment as a percentage of total employment, Tractors and agricultural equipment, as well as the proportion of land used for agriculture. To investigate the short- and long-term correlations between these variables, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration technique was employed. A unit root test was performed to evaluate the stationarity of the variables before ARDL analysis. The EViews Statistical/Econometric package facilitated the analysis. The findings from the ARDL cointegration estimates revealed a negative correlation between international crude oil prices and agriculture value added per GDP. According to the model, all variables exhibited cointegration over both the short and long term. Control variables, including agricultural employment as a percentage of total employment and agriculture machinery and tractors, showed a positive correlation with agriculture value added per GDP. However, agricultural land was found to be insignificant in influencing agricultural output. Impact Statement: The research evinced a negative effect of crude oil prices on agricultural output in Ghana, hence rising fuel cost could trigger food insecurity and threatens livelihoods, highlighting the need for policy interventions that stabilize energy costs and support sustainable agricultural practices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous investigations on the military spending-inequality nexus (in South Africa) were underpinned by the assumption that military spending and inequality behaves in symmetric fashion and employed linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model in their analysis. This paper extends and improves upon prior studies by investigating the short-run and long-run asymmetric effect of military spending on South Africa's income inequality. Using annual data from 1980 to 2017 and the asymmetric autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model by Shin et al. (2014), our paper revisits the military spending-income inequality nexus. We find evidence to suggest an asymmetric association between military and income inequality—income inequality responds differently to positive and negative shocks of military spending in the long- and short-run. Based on these findings, we conclude that the NARDL model delivers more accurate estimates and provides nuanced insights that the traditional linear ARDL. Impact statement: Our study examines the relationship between military spending and income inequality, revealing an asymmetric dynamic. These findings suggest that the Nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model offers more precise estimates and deeper insights compared to the conventional linear ARDL approach. The significance of this study is that income inequality reacts differently to increases and decreases in military spending, both in the short and long term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper proposes a novel framework for digitalising tax revenue for the Zimbabwe's informal economic sphere. The study addresses the pressing chalelnge of informal economy taxation, indetifying the absence of a modern (or contemporary) tax framework as a critical catalyst for this study. The purpose of the study was to to devise an innvovative framework tailored to improve tax revenue collection efficiency from the informal economic sector in Zimbabwe. Employing a mixed method approach deemed effective complex subject, data were gathered through structured questionnaire and in-depths interviews. The findings of this study reveals that the existing presumptive tax system is ineffective and insignificantly contributing to the treasury. Based on the results, the study developed a comprehensive contempoary framework designed specifically for tax revenue collection from the informal economic sphere in Zimbabwe. The study, therefore, advocates for the adoption of the proposed framework to streamline tax collection processes within the informal economy, thereby bolstering economic growth and inclusivity. IMPACT STATEMENT: The study aims to tackle the challenges of tax revenue generation in the informal sector by developing a digital framework to enhance efficiency, transparency, and compliance. By facilitating easier registration and compliance for informal businesses, the study seeks to boost national revenue, promote economic growth, improve governance, and empower local tax authorities, ultimately transforming Zimbabwe's tax landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relative cost efficiency of U.S. small banks after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (2008 GFC). Using financial information from 10,495 of the same small banks operating from 2010 to 2021, we examine the after-effects of the recent global financial crises on the U.S. small banks. The study uses Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to calculate the overall efficiency using yearly and pooled data. The overall efficiency measure is then decomposed into allocative, technical, pure-technical, and scale efficiency to better understand the sources of small banks' inefficiencies. The results indicate that the overall efficiency of small banks operating in the U.S. after the 2008 GFC has been continuously low until 2021. The source of the low level of overall efficiency has been the low level of technical efficiency rather than allocative efficiency. In turn, the basis of the low level of technical efficiency has been pure technical and scale efficiency. Understanding the origins of cost inefficiencies in small banks has implications for micro and macro policymaking. Examining the underlying causes of cost inefficiencies in small banks after the financial crisis can inform policymakers in devising strategies to improve banks' cost efficiency. Impact statement: This paper delves into the impact of the 2008 global financial crisis on the efficiency of small banks in the U.S. using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). Understanding the reasons for cost inefficiencies in small banks has implications for both micro and macro policy-making. By investigating the root causes of cost inefficiencies in small banks following the 2008 financial crisis, policymakers can develop strategies to improve small banks' cost efficiency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between macroeconomic factors and stock market liquidity is known but not the same can be said of macroeconomic factors and VC market liquidity. This study investigates whether there is a cointegration between macroeconomic factors and VC market liquidity and examines how macroeconomic factors affect VC market liquidity. We perform a panel fully modified OLS regression analysis after carrying out panel cointegration on a country-level dataset of 22 EU/EEA countries from 2000 to 2020. There is a long-run covariance between VC market liquidity and macroeconomic variables. Specifically, a 1% expansion in the size of the economy would lead to 0.652%, 0.927%, 0.661%, 0.723%, and 0.755% increase in VC market liquidity measured by exits through trade sales, IPOs, sales to PE firms, financial institution and MBOs, respectively. The European VC market is progressively increasing in liquidity as can be seen in the UK, France, and Germany. We report that as the size of the economy and money supply increases, VC market liquidity increases. Interest rate is significantly inversely related to VC market liquidity. The result is mostly significant for some exit strategies such as trade sales and IPOs. However, on the whole, inflation and unemployment do not significantly relate to VC market liquidity. This article has practical implications for venture capitalists and investors. It informs investors on which exit route has a significant relation with macroeconomic variables in Europe. The study effectively shows the aggregate impact of the macroeconomic conditions which is usually not the case with firm-level data. IMPACT STATEMENT: In well-developed financial markets, the venture capital (VC) market complements the stock market in providing equity finance. However, the VC market remains underdeveloped even in Europe. This paper attempts to address this market failure by exploring the liquidity of the VC market and its relationship with macroeconomic variables to provide some assurances to market participants. To provide reasonable assurance of minimal losses during the exit stage of VC activities, the VC market in Europe may exit through IPOs, trade sales, Mezzanine financing, MBOs, and sales to private equity firms and financial institutions. We confirm a cointegration between macroeconomic factors and VC market liquidity. The study finds that as the size of the economy and money supply increases, VC market liquidity increases. Interest rate is significantly inversely related to VC market liquidity. Investors and potential investors need not worry about inflation and unemployment because they do not significantly affect VC market liquidity. The paper informs market participants that trade sales and IPOs are the most popular VC exit routes and for that matter, very liquid in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While uncertainty shocks affect equity markets at various investment horizons, knowledge about the causal effects of uncertainty and equity markets in the frequency domain is scant among the Group of Twenty (G20) countries regarded as systemically important economies. This paper explores the causal relations between domestic and international (US) economic policy uncertainties (EPU) and equity market returns of G20 countries. By employing the frequency-domain causality test, with monthly data spanning January 1997 to June 2021, we reach the following conclusions: 1) irrespective of the frequency, there is more support for the equity-leading hypothesis, implying that domestic stock market volatility contributes to increasing domestic policy uncertainty, as policymakers occasionally have to alter policies in reaction to elevated stock market volatility; 2) the causality between policy uncertainty (whether domestic or international) and equity returns is sensitive to heterogeneous investment decisions and policy uncertainty across horizons in most of our sample; 3) International (US) policy uncertainty has a domineering causal effect in predicting domestic equity returns, relative to domestic policy uncertainty in the short run of about 2.5 months or less. Therefore, the prediction that stock prices fall following government policy announcements is not always supported since countries are different. Impact statement: The G20 forum comprises major economies representing a significant part of global economic activity and playing a crucial role in global economic governance. Therefore, decisions taken at the G20 forum should represent important news for financial markets with potential effects on asset prices. Moreover, market participants in these markets react to and value information relating to policy developments heterogeneously based on the differences in the formation of their beliefs, preferences, risk tolerance abilities, information assimilation, liquidity needs, investment objectives and institutional constraints. However, previous literature has mainly assumed homogeneity in agents' behaviour, resulting in a dearth of knowledge about the causal effects of uncertainty and equity markets in the frequency domain among the G20 countries. Therefore, this paper analyses the dependence between domestic and international policy uncertainties and equity market returns of G20 countries in the frequency domain. The results show that the dependence patterns between EPU and equity returns tend to vary across different investment horizons in support of the predictions of the fractal market hypothesis. Nonetheless, the stock price leading hypothesis is more dominant regardless of the investment horizon, suggesting that frequent interventions by policymakers to dampen market volatility during periods of high policy uncertainty may exacerbate the uncertainty. Moreover, International (US) policy uncertainty has a domineering causal effect in predicting domestic equity returns relative to domestic policy uncertainty in the short run of about 2.5 months or less. By assuming the homogeneity of market participants, this study offers a nuanced understanding of causal relationships across different time horizons. The findings challenge conventional wisdom about the impact of policy uncertainties on equity markets, revealing complex and heterogeneous effects across countries. These results have significant implications for policymakers, investors, and financial institutions by providing a more accurate and granular perspective on risk management, portfolio allocation, and policy design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims to examine the effect of corporate governance (CG) and information asymmetry (IA) on firm performance (FP). We applied 3SLS (Three-Stage Least Squares) regressions to examine the relationships among (1) internal CG mechanism and FP, (2) internal CG mechanism and IA, and (3) IA and FP. The data used in this study were obtained from secondary sources such as Bloomberg and SETSMART. The period of data collection was for nine years, from 2014 to 2022, with a sample size of 3,692 firm-year observations of companies listed on the Thailand Stock Exchange. Our study finds that internal CG mechanisms (board size, board independence, dividend policy, and financial leverage) are positively related to firm performance. Secondly, CG mechanisms are positively associated with analyst coverage (and hence inversely related to IA). This finding suggests that internal CG mechanisms augment corporate transparency and reduce agency costs and adverse selections. Thirdly, IA is inversely related to firm performance, ie more transparent firms with greater analyst coverage tend to deliver better firm performance as monitoring costs and adverse selection are reduced. We found that additional analyst coverage is associated with an increase of a firm's ROE by 0.52% and its ROA by 0.08%. Fourthly, we further conducted an interaction effect analysis of CG and IA on FP and found that IA also significantly moderates the relationship between CG and FP. Practical implications from our study are also discussed. Impact Statement: This paper aims to examine the effect of corporate governance (CG) and information asymmetry (IA) on firm performance (FP) in an emerging market of Thailand. Our study finds that internal CG mechanisms (board size, board independence, dividend policy, and financial leverage) are positively related to firm performance. Secondly, CG mechanisms are positively associated with analyst coverage (and hence inversely related to IA). This finding suggests that internal CG mechanisms augment corporate transparency and reduce agency costs and adverse selections. Thirdly, IA is inversely related to firm performance, i.e., more transparent firms with greater analyst coverage tend to deliver better firm performance as monitoring costs and adverse selection are reduced. We found that additional analyst coverage is associated with an increase of a firm's ROE by 0.52% and its ROA by 0.08%. Fourthly, we further conducted an interaction effect analysis of CG and IA on FP and found that IA also significantly moderates the relationship between CG and FP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of financial inclusion on corporate investment. More specifically, this paper investigates the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between financial inclusion and corporate investment, as well as the moderating effect of audit quality in this this relationship. To do so, we selected a group of 400 listed non-financial firms in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region (Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates) over a period from 2007 to 2020. The results show an inverted U-shaped link between financial inclusion and corporate investment, applying the system generalized method of moments (SGMM) method. They also found that audit quality is identified as a moderating factor in the relationship between financial inclusion and corporate investment. Our results show that the interaction of financial inclusion and audit quality improves investment efficiency, but that underinvestment scenario could result from spending free cash-flows on risky projects. The findings of this study could be a valuable contribution to the development of financial inclusion policies and to improving access to credit for policymakers and managers in the MENA region. The combination of financial inclusion and audit quality (internal and external) is indispensable for reducing agency costs and optimizing financial inclusion levels. Impact statement: This paper analyzes the impact of financial inclusion on corporate investment, emphasizing the importance of audit quality. The result reveals an inverted U-shaped relationship between financial inclusion and corporate investment and highlight that audit quality significantly moderates this relationship. The findings have implications for policymakers and managers in the MENA region, emphasizing the need for effective audit practices to reduce costs and improve credit access. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research paper aims to explore the complex relationship between entrepreneurship (REE), economic growth (GDP), and the moderating role of political stability (PS) in the context of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Utilizing a balanced panel dataset from 2006 to 2020, we employed Panel Least Squares and Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) to evaluate the interactions among these variables. The findings reveal that more than entrepreneurship alone is needed to significantly contribute to economic growth in the GCC countries. However, when political stability serves as a moderating variable, the impact of entrepreneurship on economic growth becomes markedly positive. The study provides critical insights for policymakers, indicating the necessity of a multi-faceted approach incorporating entrepreneurship and political stability in economic planning. The research fills a significant gap in the existing literature by shedding light on the intertwined nature of entrepreneurship and political stability as crucial drivers of economic growth in the GCC. This paper further offers concrete policy recommendations rooted in empirical evidence, aiming to guide future economic strategies in the region. Impact Statement: This research paper explores the intricate relationship between entrepreneurship, economic growth, and the moderating role of political stability within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries. Utilizing a balanced panel dataset from 2006 to 2020, the study employs Panel Least Squares and Panel EGLS (Cross-section random effects) to analyze the interactions among these variables. The findings reveal that entrepreneurship alone does not significantly contribute to economic growth in the GCC countries. However, when political stability serves as a moderating variable, the impact of entrepreneurship on economic growth becomes significantly positive. This research provides essential insights for policymakers, highlighting the necessity of a multifaceted approach that incorporates both entrepreneurship and political stability in economic planning. By addressing a critical gap in existing literature, this study underscores the intertwined nature of entrepreneurship and political stability as pivotal drivers of economic growth in the GCC, offering concrete policy recommendations based on empirical evidence to guide future economic strategies in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines how liquidity risk affects the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) bank profitability. Banks need profitability to survive, but liquidity risk measures long-term company health. Through Refinitiv Eikon, quantitative data was collected over 11 years from 2012 to 2022 for 71 MENA banks to support the theoretical study. Return on Equity (ROE), a profitability indicator, is the dependent variable, whereas liquidity risk is the independent variable and controlling for size, loan quality, inflation, gross domestic product, income diversification, operational efficiency, capital adequacy, and growth. This study estimates the impact of liquidity risk on MENA bank profitability using OLS and panel regression (fixed and random effects). Several results were found, such as that bank size, operational efficiency, and non-performing loans negatively affect profitability, suggesting that large banks have higher operating costs and may weaken profitability in MENA. Besides, additional non-performing loans increase the bank's costs and thus diminish profitability. Also, if the bank has no control over the operational expenses, then this will lead to reduce profitability. Liquidity risk, capital adequacy, income diversification, and growth have a positive significant impact on ROE implying that banks with higher growth opportunities, better capital adequacy ratio, more income sources, and liquidity risk will result in higher profitability as explained by the risk-reward theory. The results are robust and this has been confirmed by applying the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Impact statement: This study aims to investigate the influence of liquidity risk on the profitability of banks in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region over the period of 2012 to 2022 for a total of 71 banks. The analysis employs Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and panel regression techniques, including fixed and random effects models. The results are robust and this has been verified by implementing the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Multiple findings indicate that factors such as bank size, operational efficiency, and non-performing loans have a negative impact on profitability. Besides, Liquidity risk, income diversification, growth, capital adequacy and gross domestic product have positive impact on profitability. This study provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between liquidity risk and profitability in the banking sector of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The study's conclusions not only contribute to academic knowledge but also have practical consequences for banking professionals, regulators, and investors, highlighting its broad influence across various sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the impact of digitalization on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in 270 Chinese cities from 2012 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in income levels. Employing the System Generalized Moment Method (GMM), it aims to bridge the gap in understanding how digitalization influences FDI inflows across regions with different income levels. The findings indicate a positive correlation in low-income cities where digitalization significantly attracts FDI, but this effect is limited in medium and high-income cities. These results highlight that incentives and digital infrastructure development could be crucial for enhancing FDI in lower-income regions, making digitalization a potential strategic tool for economic growth. Impact Statement: This paper explores the impact of digitalization on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows in 270 cities in China from 2012 to 2019, focusing on regional disparities in income levels by employing the System Generalized Moment Method (GMM). As previous research on digitalization's impact on FDI inflows especially at the city level in China is scarce, this study makes two contributions: firstly, we apply the generalized method of moments (GMM) to analyze the digitalization-FDI nexus, providing empirical insights at the city level, which has often been overlooked in previous studies. Secondly, by categorizing cities based on income levels, our study reveals variations in how digitalization impacts FDI across different economic levels. The results of this study offer solutions for economic growth in low-income cities, as the research findings show a positive correlation between digitalization and FDI attraction in low-income cities, although this effect is limited in middle - and upper-income cities. It is emphasized that the development of digital infrastructure is crucial for boosting FDI in low-income regions, thereby making digitalization a potential strategic tool for enhancing economic growth in these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper aims to analyze human development through its interactions with environmental protection, governance, and official development assistance (ODA) in developing countries. This is done to allow the decision-makers of the latter to have an optimal approach to sustainable development goals (SDGs). For this matter, we used data from 56 developing countries for the period from 2005 to 2019 with the novel cross-sectionally augmented ARDL and augmented mean group (AMG). Interactive terms have been used for robustness checks. The results showed that, for low-income countries, ODA harms human development while governance effectiveness has a positive impact. The combination of governance effectiveness and ODA has a positive impact on human development. The same positive impact is found for the combination of governance and carbon emissions on human development. For middle-income countries, the findings showed that carbon emissions have a positive impact on human development. The combination of carbon emissions and ODA has a positive impact on human development. We recommend that; first, low-income countries' policymakers focus on the achievement of the combination of SDG 16 and SDG 17 with SDG 16 as the central piece for SDGs realization; Second, middle-income countries' policymakers focus on the achievement of the combination of SDG 8, SDG 16, and SDG 17 with SDG 8 as the central piece for SDGs realization. ODA donors must consider the needs of the countries receiving assistance and ease the conditions for obtaining aid. Moreover, we recommend collaboration focused on technology transfer between developed and developing countries. Impact Statement: In recent years, the achievement of sustainable development goals has been the aim of many countries. Human development, linked with many sustainable development goals, plays a central role. Moreover, the current context of climate change is taking on a planetary scale, forcing all the governments of the world to consider only development that guarantees the protection of the environment. The 2030 agenda for pursuing sustainable development requires cooperation between all countries of the world while paying particular attention to the developing country. Thus, the objective of this paper is to analyze human development through its interactions with environmental protection, governance, and development assistance in developing countries. This is done to allow the decision-makers of the latter to have an optimal approach to development but also to allow their partners a better allocation of their assistance. For this matter, data for 56 developing countries for the period from 2005 to 2019 with the novel cross-section ARDL and augmented mean group (AMG) were used. Interactive terms have been used for robustness checks. The results showed that, for low-income countries, ODA harms human development while governance effectiveness has a positive impact. The combination of governance effectiveness and ODA has a positive impact on human development. The same positive impact is found for the combination of governance and carbon emissions on human development. For middle-income countries, the findings showed that carbon emissions have a positive impact on human development. The combination of carbon emissions and ODA has a positive impact on human development. For low-income countries, in regards of the positive impact of governance effectiveness on human development, we recommend that decision-makers prioritize the achievement of SDG 16 "peace, justice and strong institutions" and use this objective as a central piece in the achievement of other SDGs, particularly by fighting corruption in all its forms. We recommend as a priority an analysis of the real needs of every country considering its factor endowment not only for the elaboration of good policies but also for the optimal allocation of resources with the aim of achieving SDG 8 "decent work and economic growth". moreover, low-income countries need cooperation with other countries, reflecting the importance of SDG 17 "partnerships for the goals". For middle-income countries, carbon emissions, characterizing an increase in economic activity, constitute an important indicator of economic growth and the realisation of SDG 8 "decent work and economic growth". We recommend that policymakers of middle-income countries focus on the realization of SDG 8 "decent work and economic growth" and use this objective as a central piece in the achievement of other SDGs for human development. Moreover, we recommend to decision-makers in these countries the association of SDG 8 and SDG 17 "partnerships for the goals" (materializing international cooperation) to further optimize human development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assesses the impact of pegging the CFA franc to the euro – at a fixed parity – on real GDP per capita in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) and the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CAEMC) countries. Using a set of 35 annual country-level panel data from 1980 to 2019, we apply the 'bias-corrected' synthetic control estimators to create a 'synthetic country' (a counterfactual) for each treated CFA country. The counterfactual is a weighted average of comparable countries that best reproduces the initial trends or characteristics of the treated country before the treatment occurs. Except for Equatorial Guinea, which shows a significant positive difference between its real GDP per capita and counterfactual, our results suggest that, overall, there is no statistical evidence that real GDP per capita has increased relative to what it would have been in the absence of the pegging of the CFA to a hard currency following France's accession to the eurozone. Impact statement: The aim of this paper is to address the lack of relevant literature and empirical results on the impact of the euro changeover on CFA zone economies, using the GDP per capita indicator. This evaluation is interesting at least for two reasons. First, to strengthen the debate with solid quantitative arguments, based on recent impact assessment techniques, and to bridge the positions. Second, such an assessment could guide CFA zone policymakers on appropriate choices, going beyond political-historical and/or strategic reasons, rigorously considering the performance of their countries' economies related to the pegging of the CFA Franc to the Euro. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper defines total factor productivity as a function of a nation's intellectual capital. By developing a simple model, it explored the long-run relationship between intellectual capital and total factor productivity. The value of total factor productivity for each country was computed from Penn World Tables 10 using the residual method, and an index of intellectual capital was constructed from several indicators taken from world development indicators. Using a common correlated effect approach, a panel of 29 countries over 31 years was estimated using various dynamic macro panel models. The result confirmed the existence of a positive and significant link between total factor productivity and intellectual capital index. This implies that a potential source of productivity difference lies with a nation's research and development, human capital, processing, and marketing capabilities in boosting the general innovation process. Thus, national and regional development policies need to consider ways to improve broader innovation. Future research on total factor productivity needs to consider things outside the box. IMPACT STATEMENT: The essential causes of productivity has been a formidable question since enlightenment. In classical and pre-classical periods, the difference in productivity was attributed to differences in geographical and people's attitude to work and luxury. In neoclassical, productiveness was an effect of natural force inside material objects and hence, consider differences in material accumulation as cause of productivity difference. Following the failure of material accumulation, the difference was considered as residual or total factor productivity by exogenous growth models and later confined to technological ideas and its spillover effects by the new endogenous growth models. However, none of these could explain the twin productivity puzzles. In this paper, intellectual capital was hypothesized as an integral factor underlying the scatteredly presumed drivers of differences in productivity across countries. It also provided an empirical justification for an existence of consistent link between total factor productivity and intellectual capital across nations at all levels of development in all economic regions. This implies, the previously fragmented concepts and factors are now the characteristics of intellectual capital. The new insight could simplify the theoretical complexities and empirical inconsistencies in productivity literature. It could also beneficial for national and regional policy makers to broader their view beyond technological innovation in order to improve productivity and catch-up process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper documents the different debt maturity choices of firms by allowing debt heterogeneity. We use a sample of US companies' capital structure and employ dynamic panel regressions and Instrumental Variable approach. When taking the maturity of each type of debt into account, the researcher fails to validate the non-linear relationship between credit quality (firm size) and debt maturity predicted by Diamond in 1991. This study finds a non-linear relationship between revolving credit, term loan, and capital leases but does not find the same relationship with bonds and notes or trust preferred securities. Also, this research finds that different types of debt are explained differently by existing debt maturity theory such as information asymmetry, agency cost of debt, signaling, tax, matching asset maturity, and timing the market hypothesis. Impact statement: The findings of this paper shed light on the intricate dynamics of debt maturity choices among firms, challenging existing theoretical frameworks. By meticulously examining a diverse array of debt instruments within US companies' capital structures, the study unveils a nuanced non-linear relationship between credit quality (proxied by firm size) and debt maturity, contrary to Diamond's seminal work. Notably, the research delineates varying patterns across different types of debt, revealing distinctive relationships for revolving credit, term loans, and capital leases compared to bonds, notes, or trust preferred securities. Moreover, the study enriches our understanding of debt maturity determinants by dissecting the influence of factors such as information asymmetry, agency costs, signaling, tax considerations, asset maturity matching, and market timing hypotheses. These findings not only contribute to the refinement of debt maturity theories but also offer valuable insights for practitioners navigating capital structure decisions in dynamic economic landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the ECOWAS region is most susceptible to climate change, factors driving climate change and policy processes are pressuring authorities in the region to take more action in the fight against climate change. In light of this, the paper investigates the role of financial development, globalization, renewable energy, economic growth, and industrialization in reducing environmental degradation in the framework of the N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis. Second generation econometric techniques, the Driscoll-Kraay panel regression approach and panel quantile estimation techniques were developed based on a panel dataset of 10 ECOWAS countries from 1990 to 2019. From the analyses, the N-shaped EKC is validated for the ECOWAS region. Moreover, the empirical analysis suggests that lower levels of environmental degradation are associated with increased financial development and renewable energy usage. Globalization and industrialization have a deleterious impact on environmental quality. The results from the U-test estimation also reveal that the shape of the EKC is contingent on the nation under study. On the other hand, the panel quantile estimation results show that the N-shaped EKC holds for low and medium emitters but not for high emitters. Globalization and industrialization significantly promote environmental degradation in all quantiles, while renewable energy homogeneously reduces environmental degradation. Financial development was found to hinder environmental degradation in low and high emitters while having a neutral effect in medium emitters. The paper offers valuable policy directions for policymakers in the ECOWAS region based on the findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at assessing the foreign direct investment inflows to Ethiopia from 2018 to 2022. A qualitative research method is applied to analyze current and relevant documents, government reports, and case studies, obtained through library research. The results indicate that investment inflows during the year 2018 to 2022 were volatile due to the global COVID-19 pandemic and unsecured political conditions in Ethiopia. During the onset of the Tigray war, FDI inflows to Ethiopia declined by 6%, even though it accounted for more than a third of foreign investment in the sub-region. According to the findings of this paper political instability associated with various ethnic conflicts, most notably the conflict in the Northen Ethiopia, as well as the insecurity in the Horn of Africa, and the acute shortage of foreign currency is currently viable challenges for foreign investors. On the other hand, the interest rate, FDI-friendly economic environment, adequate supply of labor force, adequate raw materials supply, proxy to international markets, conducive fiscal and monetary policy, and easy import and export procedures are economic opportunities for foreign investors in Ethiopia. The article suggests that the government should maintain stable political conditions and peace to attract more investment inflows into Ethiopia in the future as well as the need for a comprehensive assessment of the overall risks faced by foreign investor in Ethiopia due to the high degree of peace and security and foreign direct investment interconnectedness and interdependence. Policymakers can use this information and needs to develop policies that address the risks faced foreign investor operating in conflict-prone regions in Ethiopia. The study highlights the need for policymakers to promote peace and stability to attract FDI inflows, especially from developed countries. POLICY IMPLICATIONS: The article suggests that the government should maintain stable political conditions and peace to attract more investment inflows into Ethiopia in the future and the need for a comprehensive assessment of the overall risks faced foreign investor in Ethiopia due to the high degree of peace and security and foreign direct investment interconnectedness and interdependence. Policymakers can use this information and needs to develop policies that address the risks faced foreign investor operating in conflict-prone regions in Ethiopia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cryptocurrencies have become a popular investment option and the Ethereum has become a mainstream cryptocurrency because of the additional functionality that can be accomplished with the backing of the powerful Ethereum network compared to Bitcoin. The high volatility of Ethereum offers both profits and risks, making it crucial to improve the forecasting ability for its price volatility. The results of this study could be useful for investors and policymakers who are interested in understanding and managing the risks associated with investing in Ethereum. Several studies have explored similar topics using heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) models for cryptocurrencies, but this paper offers a more expansive approach. This paper employs five-minute high-frequency data to construct 4 HAR models to predict the volatility of Ethereum, taking into account the impact of structural breaks, Bitcoin, SP500 and VIX. The model that considers all factors outperforms other models for out-of-sample predictions for the 1-week forecasting. Due to the nature of the Ethereum price, the HAR-RV model has achieved a perfect fit in 1-day and 1-month forecasting. Therefore, other models have a very small improvement in fitness and prediction accuracy. This paper contributes to the understanding of Ethereum's volatility and its impact on the cryptocurrency market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the 1940s and 1950s, institutionalist economists rapidly lost their influence over American economics. In parallel, a new mainstream emerged, and the institutionalists were extremely dissatisfied with the path taken by the economic science. We analyze the opinions and feelings about this context to shed light on the institutionalists’ understanding of the new mainstream economics. We construct a historical account of the institutionalists’ dissatisfaction with post-war economics based on archival material from the personal papers of Allan Gruchy, John Gambs, John Blair, and Clarence Ayres. In the period analyzed, the economists, who would later found the Association for Evolutionary Economics, acted as dissenters rather than institutionalists. In part, this explains the pluralistic path that the association has followed ever since its foundation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The institutionalist-inspired Association for Evolutionary Economics (AFEE), officially founded in 1965, was the first heterodox association to break with the American Economic Association (AEA). In 1979, another institutionalist association, the Association for Institutional Thought (AFIT), was founded. Using mainly archival evidence, this paper provides historical reasons for the presence of two institutionalist associations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses some changes in the World Bank's Educational Policy Paper. According to the author, the 1974 and 1980 Educational Sector papers of the World Bank show some major shifts of emphasis in its attitude towards educational development in less developed countries. Some changes include: emphasis on the internal functioning of educational institutions; support on software faculties such as economics and management and recognition of the difficulties associated with manpower forecasting. Lastly, the paper suggests the development of educational policies geared towards a balanced educational system, where all school levels and all kinds of curricula have their place.

The article calls the attention of interested individuals to submit article that will be presented during conferences of Associations concerning economics. The organizers of the Seventh Annual Heilbronn Symposium in Economics and the Social Sciences Christian Freiherr von Wolff that will be held on June 22-25,1995 is inviting everyone to submit abstract and correspondence relevant to the theme. Likewise, the organizers of the 22nd Annual Meeting of the History of Economics Society that will be held on June 2-5, 1995 in South Bend, Indiana is calling the same.

The article presents an appendix note on a statistical question raised in the preceding paper.

The article reports on the factors, such as high paper costs, book decay, and book production costs, that are forcing libraries in the U.S. to develop alternate forms of media. The information digitalization efforts of the Bibliotheque de France are discussed. The author analyzes the positive and negative aspects of using high-speed networks with electronic versions of books. Details about the changes in library design associated with these technological developments are also included.

Comments on the article by Randall Bausor and Malcolm Rutherford concerning key issues relevant to uncertainty in economics. Rational expectations hypothesis; Theory of employment; Overview of the helical process in economics.

This study investigates the time-varying return spillovers among the gold and oil markets and the Chinese equity subsectors using a network system representation. The results of the statics analysis show that crude oil and the majority of equity sectors are the net transmitters of spillovers in the network, whereas gold is the net receiver of spillovers from the network system. Additionally, negative return spillovers are greater than positive return spillovers. The results of time-varying analysis based on the moving window technique show that the dynamic symmetric and asymmetric return propagation rise during several periods of financial difficulties, suggesting the existence of market contagion. This pattern of market spillover effects is particularly notable during the market stress period marked by the COVID-19 crisis. The analysis of dynamic network linkages uncovers the crude oil market and the banking sector as the biggest risk sources in the network system. Finally, we construct and compare the risk performance of portfolios under four different strategies, showing that gold is an effective hedging tool for risk in China's stock market. IMPACT STATEMENT: This paper analyzes return spillovers between crude oil, gold, and Chinese equity sectors using the Diebold-Yilmaz framework. Key findings reveal asymmetric spillovers, with negative returns dominating. It highlights gold's role in risk diversification and demonstrates that optimal portfolio strategies can significantly reduce downside risk, especially during financial crises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the relationship between India's Stock Market, Forex Market, Oil Market, and Gold Market to capture interdependencies addressing both direct and indirect market linkages. The study provides new insights into the interdependencies of key markets within India, an emerging economic powerhouse and significant oil consumer. For the same, our analysis is divided into two parts. Part 1 is based on daily data, where we explore the long-run relationships from 1st January 2000 to 15th December 2023 among the markets (oil, stock, gold, and forex) using the Vector Error Correction Model. Further, monthly data from January 2000 to December 2023 (Part-2) has been employed to analyse market mechanisms through intermediary variables. We use data from 10 macroeconomic variables: Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) Prices, INR/USD Exchange Rate, Consumer Price Index, Bank Interest Rate, 91-day Risk-free Government Bond Yield, Global WTI Oil Prices, WTI Futures, National Gold Prices, and India's and China's Imports and utilised Simultaneous Equation Models. As a major oil refiner, Indias deepening integration into global economy highligjts its markets' role in shaping international strategies and promoting insights into resilience and interdependencies amid uncertainty. Oil prices (WTI) are positively associated to WTI futures, reflecting the forward-looking nature, while gold shows a weak negative, though statistically insiginificant correlation with WTI, indicating minimal direct impact. Impact Statement: This research provides a comprehensive analysis of the interdependencies among India's stock, forex, oil, and gold markets, shedding light on their dynamic relationships and resilience in the context of a rapidly globalizing economy. The findings not only enhance our understanding of market interconnections in one of the world's largest oil consumers but also offer critical insights for policymakers, investors, and global economic strategists navigating uncertainty and volatility in interconnected markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study addresses the challenge of sovereign external debt sustainability by employing a cointegration test, machine-learning classifiers, and explainable models. Focusing on 22 middle-income countries during the period 2000-2021, our study aims to provide accurate insights into debt positions and capture the complex dynamics between a set of economic and fiscal indicators. Unlike conventional econometric methods, which categorize debt situations as either sustainable or unsustainable over specific periods and often have limitations in generalizing the influences of public policies on debt positions, our machine-learning approach reveals a more nuanced perspective. The results indicate that some countries have encountered episodes of debt unsustainability. These results underscore the substantial role of macroeconomic indicators in shaping a country's financial position in conjunction with outstanding debt. Furthermore, our findings demonstrate that the impact of each feature varies based on its specific threshold, emphasizing the critical role of exchange rates in straining debt sustainability. IMPACT STATEMENT: This paper redefines sovereign debt sustainability analysis for middle-income countries by applying machine-learning techniques to reveal the influence of key economic indicators, including exchange rates, inflation, GDP growth, and foreign reserves. The findings demonstrate that debt sustainability is shaped by complex interactions between macroeconomic factors rather than debt outstanding, offering policymakers a practical framework to assess debt position with greater accuracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Somalia has been a stateless nation for over two decades, where government institutions have been destroyed and malfunctioned, including the central bank. Consequently, this ruled out the control and regulation of the money supply and exchange rate by the central bank. This study investigates the effect of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance in Somalia over the period 1984–2018. Using the nonlinear ARDL model, the results show the presence of asymmetric long-term effects of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance. The study finds that currency depreciation worsens trade balance both in the long- and short-run, while long-term currency appreciation has a significant impact on trade balance but significant positive short-run effects on the trade balance. Overall, the study confirms the absence of the Marshall-Lerner condition and the J-curve effect, validated by several econometric methodologies for robustness. Our study suggests that reforms in the exchange rate system and monetary policies can restore the credibility and stability of the Somali shilling, which can boost trade and investment. IMPACT STATEMENT: Somalia has been a stateless nation for over two decades where government institutions destructed and became malfunctioning including the central bank. Consequently, this ruled out the control and regulation of money supply and exchange rate by the central bank. The informal unregulated exchange rate market causes serious problems to the Somali economy. Specifically, it constantly increases the inflation rate by raising the price of imported goods given that Somalia is a highly import-dependent country. Additionally, the unregulated exchange rate depreciation does not only raise the price of imported goods, but it also erodes the purchasing power of the low-earning workers who receive their salary in Somali Shillings—thereby causing many households vulnerable to multidimensional poverty. This paper investigates the effect of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance in Somalia over the period 1984–2018. Using the nonlinear ARDL model, the results show the presence of asymmetric long-term effects of unregulated exchange rates on the trade balance. The study finds that currency depreciation worsens trade balance in both the long- and short-run, while long-term currency appreciation has no significant impact on trade balance but has significant positive short-run effects on the trade balance. Our study suggests reforms in the exchange rate system and monetary policies restore credibility and stability of the Somali shilling which can boost trade and investment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2023 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) encompass a specific objective that is to 'end hunger, achieve food security, enhance agriculture, and improve nutrition'. The realization of this goal relies heavily on efficient agriculture sector management in developing countries. Consequently, assessment of factors that influence agricultural production is one of the way to solve issues that hinders the attainement of the SDGs. This paper aims to investigate the determinants of food production within the South African agricultural sector. Employing econometric methods like Johansen and Canonical Cointegration, VAR and VECM, this study analyes annual time series data spanning from 1961 to 2022. The analysis indicates that factors such as accessible financing, heightened agricultural sector investment, fertilizer usage, and rural demographic growth positively influence food production; contributing to mitigating food insecurity in South Africa. Conversely, elevated lending rates and inflation pose challenges to South African food production. Thise results indicate the role played by monetary policy to improve food production in South Africa. To bolster food production in South Africa, policymakers shoul focus on enhancing agricultural skills, easing credit conditions to improve financial accessibility, and encouraging active investment from government and private sectors in agricultural activities. Impact statement: The current study offers vital insights into the multifaceted determinants of food production within the South African agricultural sector, directly contributing to achieving the 2023 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly the aim of "ending hunger, achieving food security, enhancing agriculture, and improving nutrition." By employing rigorous econometric analyses on comprehensive time series data, this research enhances the existing literature by identifying and elucidating various bottlenecks that obstruct production growth in the South African agricultural sector. Additionally, the study conducts a thorough investigation into the impact of key factors of production in agriculture, providing evidence-based recommendations and robust strategies designed to alleviate hunger and malnutrition through enhanced food production techniques. It underscores the critical significance of targeted investment growth, agricultural skills enhancement, and improved financial accessibility as essential strategies for boosting agricultural productivity. The findings are not only relevant to South Africa but also offer valuable lessons for other developing countries facing similar agrarian challenges. By illuminating the pathways to improved food production and food security, this study serves as a foundational resource for policymakers, agricultural practitioners, and other stakeholders striving to create sustainable food systems that can effectively eradicate hunger and elevate nutrition standards on a global scale. This study highlights the usefulness of a collaborative approach incorporating government initiatives, private sector investments, and community engagement to foster a resilient agricultural sector capable of adapting to changing socio-economic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) prediction is essential for economic planning and policy formulation. This paper evaluates the performance of three machine learning models—Random Forest Regression (RFR), XGBoost, and Prophet—in predicting Somalia's GDP. Historical economic data, including GDP per capita, population, inflation rate, and current account balances, were used in training and testing. Among the models, RFR achieved the best accuracy with the lowest MAE (0.6621%), MSE (1.3220%), RMSE (1.1497%), and R-squared of 0.89. The Diebold-Mariano p-value for RFR (0.042) confirmed its higher predictive accuracy. XGBoost performed well but with slightly higher error, yielding an R-squared of 0.85 and p-value of 0.063. In contrast, Prophet had the highest forecast errors, with an R-squared of 0.78 and p-value of 0.015. For enhanced interpretability, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) were applied to RFR, identifying lagged current account balance, GDP per capita, and lagged population as key predictors, along with total population and government net lending/borrowing. SHAP plots provided insights into these features' contributions to GDP predictions. This study highlights RFR's effectiveness in economic forecasting and emphasizes the importance of current and lagged economic indicators. IMPACT STATEMENT: This study presents a critical advancement in economic forecasting for Somalia by comparing the performance of three machine learning models—Random Forest Regression, XGBoost, and Prophet—in predicting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based on historical economic data. The findings underscore the superior accuracy of the Random Forest Regression model, which yielded the lowest error rates and highest interpretability through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Key economic indicators, including lagged current account balances, GDP per capita, and population data, were identified as significant predictors of GDP. By enhancing the accuracy and interpretability of GDP forecasts, this research provides valuable insights for policymakers, aiding in data-driven economic planning and policy formulation to support sustainable development in Somalia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exports in sub-Saharan Africa have struggled to generate the kind of growth witnessed in Southeast Asia on the background of rising government debt. This article considers the extent to which government debt, which has tripled since 2008, may have constrained export-led growth in the region. Further examined is the extent to which debt reduction is possible through revenue growth and expenditure cuts. From a sample of 44 sub-Saharan countries observed between 2004 and 2023, the impact of exports on economic growth is found to be stronger in countries with low to moderate levels of debt and weaker in countries with high debt. To achieve robust economic growth from exports, sub-Saharan countries need to keep debt below 45% of GDP. From the results, this requires cutting expenditure on GDP by 2–10 percentage points or raising revenue (excluding grants) by 2–12 percentage points. These estimates are in line with the primary balance adjustment of at least 2 percentage points recommended by the IMF. Estimates further indicate that cutting government expenditure reduces debt more than raising revenue. Counterfactual scenarios show that cutting government expenditure on GDP by 15 percentage points would reduce government debt from 55 to 45% of GDP. IMPACT STATEMENT: This paper addresses the question of why trade has hardly accelerated growth in sub-Saharan Africa and the importance of managing government debt as a moderating factor. The empirical evidence from a panel of 44 countries demonstrates the importance of prudent fiscal policies and debt management strategies as the growth effect of exports is constrained by high government debt. This evidence is consistent with the IMF's policy stance on the need for urgent debt management strategies in the sub-Saharan region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to examine the factors that influence societal savings habits and pre-retirement well-being. Triggered by the global trend of low personal interest rates, it seeks to illuminate how preparedness for retirement affects the overall quality of life and societal well-being. More specifically, the study pursues three (3) main objectives: 1) to identify the socio-demographic and behavioural elements that shape societal savings habits; 2) to determine the factors that affect individuals' propensity to save; and 3) to assess the impact of savings behaviours on pre-retirement well-being, focusing on aspects such as happiness, prosperity, health, comfort, and security. We used the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) with SMART-PLS to analyse these relationships. The results illustrate significant correlations among financial literacy, savings habits, financial risk tolerance, future time perspectives, retirement savings, and retirement well-being. These findings bolster the study's conclusions, which are further supported by active survey participation. IMPACT STATEMENT: The research presented in this paper examines the critical intersection of retirement savings, individual well-being, and savings habits. In an era marked by economic uncertainty, understanding how savings habits impact long-term financial security and overall quality of life is of paramount importance. Our study delves into the complex dynamics that influence retirement saving decisions and their implications for individuals, families, and society as a whole. By exploring the relationship between savings habits and well-being indicators such as financial stress, mental health, and overall life satisfaction, we aim to provide insights that can inform policy interventions and financial literacy initiatives. The findings of this research have significant implications for public policy, financial institutions, employers, and individuals alike. By identifying barriers to effective retirement saving and highlighting strategies to promote greater financial resilience, we hope to contribute to the development of policies and programs that support retirement security for all segments of the population. Thank you for considering the public interest implications of our research and for your support in advancing our collective efforts to promote financial well-being and retirement security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Developing countries generally exhibit low 'saving' (flow concept) and 'savings' (stock concept) rates. The factors underlying household positive or negative saving behaviours in developed and developing countries are not new in the macroeconomic literature. Whereas some determinants are theoretically generic, others are country- or community-specific and worth investigating. In this study, the determinants of household saving behaviour are examined. We obtain the results using primary data from a household survey and a logit econometric model with its associated average marginal effects. Our evidence shows that household income, level of education completed, employment status, and households with launching children (or transitioning older adults) are primary drivers of household saving behaviour in Ghana. Further heterogeneous analysis shows that saving behaviour does not statistically differ by gender but by poverty headcount. In line with the findings of this study, relevant policy prescriptions are discussed. Impact statement: This study contributes to the ongoing discourse on household saving behaviour, specifically within the context of developing countries, by providing empirical evidence from Ghana. Utilising primary household survey data, the research identifies key factors such as income, education level, employment status, and household lifecycle stages (e.g., families with launching children or transitioning older adults) as critical determinants of saving behaviour. The findings offer actionable insights for policymakers in developing economies aiming to boost saving rates, reduce poverty, and promote financial stability. By demonstrating that household saving behaviour varies by poverty headcount rather than gender, the study underscores the need for targeted financial inclusion and education policies. The results are particularly relevant for economic development strategies in countries with similar socio-economic structures, offering a foundation for tailored interventions that can foster more resilient household financial practices. This paper's insights can shape future research and policy development aimed at addressing the unique saving dynamics in developing nations, ultimately contributing to improved macroeconomic stability and individual financial security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]