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The objective of this study was to examine sexual orientation-based disparities in six self-reported health outcomes among millennial aged military veterans. We collected data using The Millennial Veteran Health Study, a cross-sectional internet-based survey with extensive quality control measures. The survey was fielded April through December 2020 and targeted millennial aged veterans across the United States. A total of 680 eligible respondents completed the survey. We assessed six binary health outcomes: alcohol use, marijuana use, frequent chronic pain, opioid misuse, high psychological distress, and fair or poor health status. Using logistic regression adjusted for a range of demographic, socioeconomic, and military-based covariates, we find that bisexual veterans consistently report worse health than straight veterans for all six health outcomes tested. Results for gay or lesbian, compared to straight veterans, were less consistent. Sensitivity models with continuous outcomes, and stratified by gender, found similar results. These results have implications for improving the health of bisexual individuals, including addressing discrimination, belonging, and social identity, particularly in institutional settings that have traditionally heteronormative and masculine cultures such as the military. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Research suggests social support may protect sexual minorities from the harmful effects of victimization that undermine mental and sexual health wellness; however, this relationship has been underexplored among a diverse youth population. We examined the association between lifetime homonegative victimization, perceived stress in the last month, and resilience factors among a diverse sample of adolescent sexual minority males. Methods: Data were collected between June 2018 and April 2020 as part of the MyPEEPS Mobile study, a multi-site randomized controlled trial evaluating the effectiveness of a mobile behavioral HIV prevention intervention for adolescents living in the U.S. We analyzed baseline survey data from 542 sexual minority males, aged 13–18 years. We used bivariate analyses to examine relationships among variables and multivariable linear regression models to determine if resilience factors attenuated the association between homonegative victimization and perceived stress. Results: Perceived stress was positively associated with younger age, internalized homophobia, experiencing verbal victimization, threats of being outed, and threats of physical violence. Relying on online friends for support and having good family relations both attenuated the relationship between verbal victimization and perceived stress. However, neither of these resilience factors significantly weakened the associations between perceived stress, threats of physical violence, and being outed. Conclusion: Resilience factors, including peer and family support, may play an attenuating role in the relationship between homonegative victimization and perceived stress among adolescent sexual minority males. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03167606 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Non-binary and genderqueer (NBGQ) individuals do not identify with a binary gender identity. Some but not all NBGQ individuals identify as transgender, and it is currently unclear on which aspects of mental and sexual well-being NBGQ and binary transgender individuals may differ. To compare NBGQ, binary transgender and cisgender individuals on variables related to mental well-being, sexual well-being, and sexual self-concept discrepancies. We conducted an online questionnaire study in 125 transgender men, 72 transgender women, 78 NBGQ individuals, 98 cisgender men, and 107 cisgender women. For most variables, NBGQ individuals did not differ from binary transgender individuals. These two groups differed only on gender dysphoria and transgender specific body image worries, which were both lower in the NBGQ group. Compared to the cisgender group, NBGQ individuals scored higher on gender dysphoria, actual/ought sexual self-concept discrepancies, and actual/ideal sexual self-concept discrepancies, and lower on general life satisfaction and sexual esteem related to body perception. These results offer a first quantitative analysis of sexual well-being in NBGQ individuals, and highlight that – while both groups face unique challenges – NBGQ individuals encounter similar difficulties concerning mental and sexual well-being as binary transgender individuals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical literacy is key in this heavily polarized information age for an informed and critical citizenry to make sense of arguments in the media and society. The responsibility of developing statistical literacy is often left to the K-12 mathematics curriculum. In this article, we discuss our investigation of K-8 students' current opportunities to learn statistics created by state mathematics standards. We analyze the standards for alignment to the Guidelines for the Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE II) PreK-12 report and summarize the conceptual themes that emerged. We found that while states provide K-8 students opportunities to analyze and interpret data, they do not offer many opportunities for students to engage in formulating questions and collecting/considering data. We discuss the implications of the findings for policy makers and researchers and provide recommendations for policy makers and standards writers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents information concerning the number of operational strategic nuclear weapons in the United States as of the end of 1994. Results of the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR); Establishment of the missions and levels for strategic nuclear forces through the year 2003; Projected nuclear forces after START II.

We present a surprising though obvious result that seems to have been unnoticed until now. In particular, we demonstrate the equivalence of two well-known problems—the optimal allocation of the fixed overall sample sizenamongLstrata under stratified random sampling and the optimal allocation of theH= 435 seats among the 50 states for apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives following each decennial census. In spite of the strong similarity manifest in the statements of the two problems, they have not been linked and they have well-known but different solutions; one solution is not explicitly exact (Neyman allocation), and the other (equal proportions) is exact. We give explicit exact solutions for both and note that the solutions are equivalent. In fact, we conclude by showing that both problems are special cases of a general problem. The result is significant for stratified random sampling in that it explicitly shows how to minimize sampling errorwhen estimating a totalTYwhile keeping the final overall sample size fixed atn; this is usually not the case in practice with Neyman allocation where the resulting final overall sample size might be nearn+Lafter rounding. An example reveals that controlled rounding with Neyman allocation does not always lead to the optimum allocation, that is, an allocation that minimizes variance. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice of the American Statistical Association (ASA) have evolved over a span of more than 60 years, going back to 1949. The Interim version of the Guidelines was published in 1980, the Trial version was published in 1983 and revised and formalized in 1989, the current version was approved by the Board of Directors and made available on the ASA's Web site in 1999, and ASA accreditation now requires statistical practitioners to agree to abide by them. The new century brings new ethical concerns for statisticians. As examples, bioethics is booming, climate science is newsworthy for both science and ethics, and issues of statistical integrity in research keeps the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of Research Integrity very busy. In this century, we see a rapid increase in the ability to collect massive amounts of data, with complex structure and a sometimes sensitive nature. With these unparalleled opportunities for statisticians comes an increased need for clear guidelines on professional ethics. The evolution of the Guidelines therefore needs to continue. In this article, we examine the long history of the ASA Ethical Guidelines for Statistical Practice, and discuss potential areas for revision to meet the needs of our expanding profession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical relationships between annual floods at 200 long-term (85–127 years of record) streamgauges in the coterminous United States and the global mean carbon dioxide concentration (GMCO2) record are explored. The streamgauge locations are limited to those with little or no regulation or urban development. The coterminous US is divided into four large regions and stationary bootstrapping is used to evaluate if the patterns of these statistical associations are significantly different from what would be expected under the null hypothesis that flood magnitudes are independent of GMCO2. In none of the four regions defined in this study is there strong statistical evidence for flood magnitudes increasing with increasing GMCO2. One region, the southwest, showed a statistically significant negative relationship between GMCO2 and flood magnitudes. The statistical methods applied compensate both for the inter-site correlation of flood magnitudes and the shorter-term (up to a few decades) serial correlation of floods. Citation Hirsch, R.M. and Ryberg, K.R., 2012. Has the magnitude of floods across the USA changed with global CO2 levels? Hydrolological Sciences Journal, 57 (1), 1–9. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider a local post-stratification approach to analyze the capture–recapture dual system Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation (A.C.E.) data associated with the 2000 U.S. Census. The local post-stratification is carried out via a nonparametric regression estimation of the census enumeration and the correct enumeration functions. We propose a nonparametric population size estimator that is designed to accommodate some key aspects of the A.C.E.: missing values, erroneous enumerations, and extra covariates affecting the missingness and correct enumeration. The resulting estimates are compared with estimates from a conventional post-stratification and a logistic regression approach in an analysis on the 2000 Census A.C.E. data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency began widespread monitoring of PM2.5 (particulate matter <2.5 p in diameter) concentration levels in the late 1990s, the epidemiological community has performed several observational studies directly relating PM2.5 concentration to various health endpoints including mortality and morbidity. However, recent research suggests that human exposure to the constituents of PM2.5 may differ significantly from ambient (or outdoor) PM2.5 concentration measured by monitors because people spend a great deal of time in environments, such as various indoor environments, where they are partially shielded from ambient sources of PM and are exposed to nonambient sources of PM. Recent research has provided some ways to include exposure information, but little has been done to determine the impact of including such information in a statistical model. To address this concern, we develop a three-stage Bayesian hierarchical model based on the Poisson regression model that is traditionally used to characterize the relationship between PM2.5 concentration and health endpoints. Our approach includes a spatial model relating monitor readings to average county PM2.5 concentration and an exposure simulator that links average ambient PM2.5 concentration to average personal exposure using activity pattern data. We apply our model to a study population in North Carolina and explore the impact of various exposure modeling assumptions on the conclusions that can be drawn about the link between PM2.5 exposure and cardiovascular mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article develops an information criterion for determining the number q of common shocks in the general dynamic factor model developed by Forni et al., as opposed to the restricted dynamic model considered by Bai and Ng and by Amengual and Watson. Our criterion is based on the fact that this number q is also the number of diverging eigenvalues of the spectral density matrix of the observations as the number n of series goes to infinity. We provide sufficient conditions for consistency of the criterion for large n and T (where T is the series length). We show how the method can be implemented and provide simulations and empirics illustrating its very good finite-sample performance. Application to real data adds a new empirical facet to an ongoing debate on the number of factors driving the U.S. economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present two models for the short-term prediction of the number of deaths arising from common cancers in the United States. The first is a local linear model, in which the slope of the segment joining the number of deaths for any two consecutive time period is assumed to be random with a nonparametric distribution, which has a Dirichlet process prior. For slightly longer prediction periods, we present a local quadratic model. This extension of the local linear model includes an additional "acceleration" term that allows it to quickly adjust to sudden changes in the time series. The proposed models can be used to obtain the predictive distributions of the future number of deaths. as well their meals and variances through Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. We illustrate our methods by runs on data from selected cancer sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider quantile autoregression (QAR) models in which the autoregressive coefficients can be expressed as monotone functions of a single, scalar random variable. The models can capture systematic influences of conditioning variables on the location, scale, and shape of the conditional distribution of the response, and thus constitute a significant extension of classical constant coefficient linear time series models in which the effect of conditioning is confined to a location shift. The models may be interpreted as a special case of the general random-coefficient autoregression model with strongly dependent coefficients. Statistical properties of the proposed model and associated estimators are studied. The limiting distributions of the autoregression quantile process are derived. QAR inference methods are also investigated. Empirical applications of the model to the U.S. unemployment rate, short-term interest rate, and gasoline prices highlight the model's potential. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Profiling is currently an important, and hotly debated, topic in health care and other industries looking for ways to control costs, increase profitability, and increase service quality. Managed care in particular has seen a proliferation in the use of statistical profiling methodology, particularly with regard to monitoring expenditure data. This article focuses on the specific problem of developing statistical methods appropriate for profiling physician contributions to patient pharmacy expenditures incurred in a managed care setting. The two-part hierarchical model with a correlated random-effects structure considered here accounts for both the skewed, zero-inflated nature of pharmacy expenditure data and the fact that patient pharmacy expenditures are correlated within physicians. The random-effects structure has an attractive interpretation in terms of a conceptual model for physician prescribing patterns. Using this model, we propose to rank physicians based on an appropriately constructed provider-level performance measure. This information is subsequently used to develop a novel financial incentive scheme. Inference is conducted in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As in all recent censuses, the U.S. Census Bureau used statistical methods in the 2000 Census to account for missing or contradictory information concerning the number of people living in some identified housing units. These statistically corrected counts were used for congressional apportionment and redistricting. In 2002, the Supreme Court ruled that this limited use of statistics was both lawful and constitutional. This article provides a context for that decision, by tracing the evolution of statistical methods in the U.S. census, and the accompanying litigation. It then summarizes the statistical and legal arguments and issues raised in Utah v. Evans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interpreting group differences observed in aggregated data is a practice that must be done with enormous care. Often the truth underlying such data is quite different than a naive first look would indicate. The confusions that can arise are so perplexing that some of the more frequently occurring ones have been dubbed paradoxes. This article describes two of these paradoxes—Simpson's paradox and Lord's paradox—and illustrates them in a single dataset. The dataset contains the score distributions, separated by race, on the biological sciences component of the Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) and Step 1 of the United States Medical Licensing Examination™ (USMLE). Our goal in examining these data was to move toward a greater understanding of race differences in admissions policies in medical schools. As we demonstrate, the path toward this goal is hindered by differences in the score distributions which gives rise to these two paradoxes. The ease with which we were able to illustrate both of these paradoxes within a single dataset is indicative of how widespread they are likely to be in practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Systems for ranking college basketball or football teams take many forms, ranging from polls of selected coaches or members of the media to so-called computer-ranking systems. Some of these are used in ways that have considerable impact on the teams. The committee responsible for the selection and seeding of teams for the postseason National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division I men's basketball tournament is influenced by various rankings, including ones based on the ratings percentage index (RPI). The Bowl Championship Series (BCS) rankings of NCAA Division I-A football teams determine which two teams compete in a postseason national championship game and determine eligibility for other prestigious postseason games. There are certain attributes that seem desirable in any ranking system to be used in selecting or seeding teams for postseason competition or that may have some other tangible or intangible effect on the teams. These attributes include accuracy, appropriateness, impartiality, unobtrusiveness, nondisruptiveness, verifiability, and comprehensibility. The polls, the RPI, and the BCS rankings are notably deficient in several of these attributes. A system having all of the attributes, except for unobtrusiveness, can be achieved by applying least squares to a statistical model in which the expected difference in score in each game is modeled as a difference in team effects plus or minus a home court/field advantage. The potential obtrusiveness of this approach can be circumvented by introducing modifications to reward winning per se and to eliminate any incentive for "running up the score" or for deliberately surrendering a lead so as to extend a game into overtime. The modified least squares system was applied to the 1999-2000 basketball and 1999-2001 football seasons. Its accuracy in predicting the outcomes of 73 postseason football games and 93 postseason basketball games was undiminished by the modifications and was comparable to that of the betting line. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative performance monitoring of health care providers has become an increasingly prominent activity in health care delivery. As a consequence, multidimensional "report cards" comparing the quality of services provided by diverse health care organizations have begun to appear. We present a case study examining the performance of 22 geographically defined health care systems, known as Veterans Integrated Service Networks; involving the treatment of more than 37,000 veterans discharged from general psychiatry program beds in fiscal year 1998. We describe multilevel multidimensional latent variable models and fit these to a set of related mixed discrete and continuous outcomes to identify networks providing inadequate care to its patients. We use validation sample to assess model fit by comparing observed statistics to the distribution of the statistics across replicated datasets. We propose using posterior tail probabilities associated with functions of the latent variables to select networks with poor outcomes, and finally compare our results with those from current methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights the 2001 Deming Lecture of the American Statistical Association at the Joint Statistical Meetings in Atlanta, Georgia. Presentation of the proactive statistician; Concept of statistical leader; Development of statistics and statistician.

Presents issues concerning on statistical methods in the U.S. Importance of Bayesian analysis for p value estimation; Usability of likelihood function; Impact of assuming alternative reasonable priors on posterior distribution.

When subjects are measured twice, once at each of two symmetrical locations or times, stability of responses in the absence of treatment within subjects, together with comparability of untreated responses between subjects, is often viewed as supporting a conclusion that differences between treated and control responses reflect effects actually caused by the treatment. The degree to which this intuitive argument is formally correct is explored is several related models: a multivariate Normal model, a nonparametric model defined by symmetries, an analogues randomized experiment, and sensitivity analysis model for observational studies in which treatments are not randomly assigned to subjects, nor to locations within subjects. Card and Kreuger's study of the employment effects of the minimum wage is used to illustrate the methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deals with a study which discussed the curriculum guidelines for the Bachelor of Science degrees in statistical science in the United States. Historical background of the study; State of undergraduate programs in statistics; Recommendations for the statistics curriculum.

The following three articles are the results of papers presented and discussed at a symposium entitled "Improving the Workforce of the Future: Opportunities in Undergraduate Education," held August 12-13, 2000, in Indianapolis, IN. This symposium was sponsored by the American Statistical Association through its Undergraduate Statistics Education Initiative. The first article was the keynote address at the symposium. The latter two articles are position papers that were developed in part through discussions among representatives from liberal arts colleges, research universities, industry, and government at a May 1999 meeting at the ASA Headquarters and a subsequent April 2000 workshop in Alexandria, VA. This workshop was partially supported by the National Science Foundation. Other position papers based on symposium discussions are being developed and are scheduled to appear in the Journal of Statistical Education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Advanced Placement Statistics course, first offered in 1997 after more than 12 years of planning, allows high school students who pass an examination to receive college credit for a statistics course taken at their high school. In its third year 25,240 students took this examination, and 57% "passed." The three-hour exam consists of both multiple choice and free response questions, which cover the four sections of the AP Statistics syllabus: data exploration, study design, probability distributions through simulation, and inference. Although some problems remain, both students and teachers find the course to be challenging and valuable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Examines the role of statistics and the role of statisticians both in practice and training in the United States. Preparation of practitioners in the 21st century; Relevance in decision-making practices; Importance of the American Statistical Association.

Highlights results of a survey conducted by the Conference Board of the Mathematical Sciences on undergraduate programs in the United States. Enrollment in statistics courses; Number of bachelor's degrees with a major in statistics; Breakdown of full-time and part-time faculty members.

Focuses on the suggested enactment of a legislation to establish a commission to study the United States Federal Statistical System and make recommendations to solve the social problems of the nation. Details on the creation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI); Background of the Social Security Solvency Act of 1998 and its implication on the tax burden for the young and elderly; Efforts considered to bring back an organized statistical system of the nation.

Presents several classroom demonstrations that have encouraged student involvement in the undergraduate course in decision theory and Bayesian statistics at the Columbia University in New York City. Principles of decision analysis; Subjective probability intervals and calibration; Utility of money and risk-aversion.

Discusses the teaching of introductory statistics in the undergraduate level in the United States. Extensive use of writing in introductory statistics; Ability of statisticians to summarize and present data; Teaching techniques in the educating students about statistics.

Considers an approach for teaching a large elementary statistics class that encourages student involvement. Incorporation of a hands-on approach; Description of some worksheets of students; Impact of the worksheet to the student's learning concept.

Attempts to imagine plausible futures on the state of statistics teaching at the university level at the end of the 20th century. Responses of the authors on the effect of technology on statistics; Ways of helping students learn more about statistics; Criticism directed at higher education.

Describes the expanded role of statisticians in the area of medical clinical trials in private industry, academic centers and the US federal government. Planning, implementation and final analysis of the multicenter randomized clinical trial (MRCT); Complexity of the MRCT; Circumstances presenting the need for a coordinating center.

Focuses on the challenges in teaching short statistics courses by the Department of Statistics at the University of Florida from 1991 to 1994. Reduced state funding for education; Necessity of coming up with external sources of funding; Development of a program called `Week of Short Courses' which was used to generate additional revenue.

Suggests issues and explores problems that must be considered in any substantial overhaul of statistics curricula in graduate programs. Introduction of cross-disciplinary training; Renewed emphasis on the undergraduate education; Example of an ideal statistics curricula.

Responds to comments about the author's article on the certification of statisticians in the United States. Basic premises and related facts that support certification; Benefits of certification to the statistical profession; Need to prevent unrecognized mismatch between the statistical sophistication of the problem solver and the statistical complexity of the problem.

Opinion. Comments on Peter B. Imrey's article about the certification of statisticians in the United States. Managers' lack of statistical awareness and failure to appreciate variability; Benefits of certification based on Imrey's arguments; Lack of appreciation and respect for statisticians; Further education of statisticians at all levels; Ingredients for success of the statistical profession.

Discusses problematic aspects of statistical practice that can be solved through certification of statisticians. Professionalism among statisticians; Limited political influence of statisticians; Scientific community's assumption that a statistician's analytical skills are possessed or easily acquired by any intelligent researcher; Flawed appraisals in statistics.

Discusses the data quality awareness of the federal statistical agencies of the United States. Formation of Federal Committee on Statistical Methodology (FCSM) organized by the US Office of Management and Budget (OMB); Objective of the FCSM of improving the data quality of the statistical agencies; Uses of federal statistical data; Policy recommendations.

Describes a course for high school teachers that would give background knowledge of statistics. Integration of topics from probability, statistics and data analysis into the high school mathematics curriculum; Resources for implementing the course; Alternative approaches to teacher training.

Discusses the background of the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), the sampling plan, the methods used to measure Census omissions and Census erroneous enumerations. Treatment of non-response; Use of estimates to calculate adjusted Census data.

Introduces opportunities for statisticians in areas of research in the advertising industry. Use of exposure distribution to assess campaign efficiency; Univariate, bivariate and trivariate models.

Presents rankings of United States statistics faculties according to their representation on editorial boards of 14 American statistics journals. Methodology; Findings; Number of memberships and journals.

Comments on the articles published in 'The American Statistician' journal. Improvement in the interpretability of residual scatterplots; Proposal of a domain for multiple regression prediction; Demand for statisticians in the labor market.

Focuses on the technical and non-technical challenges in the profession of statistics in the United States. Views of several industrial intellectuals on the profession; Importance of management commitment to effective partnerships; Comparative assessment of technical as well as non-technical challenges in integrating quality improvement.

Focuses on the need for public awareness of statistics as a science and profession in the United States. Importance of statistical training; Development of slide presentation by the American Statistical Association Council of Chapters for increased awareness of statistics in schools; Introduction of high school students to the importance of statistics.

Focuses on the uncertainty in statistics for the aging population in the United States. Sources of uncertainty in policy data; Ways to reduce uncertainty; Sampling error in surveys used to determine health needs.

Examines the statistical problems encountered in identifying thresholds of material damage and soiling effect in the United States. Determination of the quantitative values of thresholds; Concerns on economic values, personal comfort and well being; Types of threshold considered in the exposure of materials to air pollutants.

Discusses the role of Fred K. Schaefer in the development of the science of geography. Family background; Graduation at the Kaiser Friedrich Real Gymnasium in 1927; Postgraduate studies at the University of Berlin from 1928 to 1932; Work as a statistician; Political refuge in London when the Nazis came to power; Migration to the United States in 1938; Staff member at the State University of Iowa; Famous article, "Exceptionalism in Geography: A Methodological Examination".

Presents a first-person narrative of a geographer in the United States regarding developments in quantitative geography in the 1950s and 1960s. Arrival in the Department of Geography at the State University of Iowa in the fall of 1957; Appointment of Edwin Thomas to the department's faculty in 1958 which served as a catalyst in the accelerated and formal development of quantitative geography who brought with him his expertise in statistical analysis.

Presents a first-person narrative of a geographer in the United States regarding developments in the discipline of geography from 1957 to 1977. Early graduate days in the fall of 1956 at the Northwestern University; Stagnation of geography for decades because of lack of tools, methodological insight and development; General trend of applying statistics to geographical research; Philosophical issues in geography.