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Abstract Atmospheric transport and dispersion models (ATDMs) are widely used to study and forecast pollution events. In the frame of the “Effect of Megacities on the transport and transformation of pollutants on the regional to global scales” (EMeRGe) project, ATDM forecasts were carried out to identify potential airborne sampling areas of perfluorocarbons (PFCs) emanating from controlled PFC releases. The forecasts involved short-distance transport over small-scale topographic maxima (Manilla; Philippines), short-distance transport over large-scale topographic maxima (Taipei, Taiwan) and long-distance transport over mixed topography (Nanjing, China, sampled over Taiwan). In situ aircraft measurements of PFC mixing ratios down to a few parts per quadrillion (ppqv) provide us with a unique dataset to explore the added benefits of dynamical downscaling. Transport simulations were repeated using FLEXPART driven by ERA5 and IFS meteorological data and FLEXPART-WRF with dynamically downscaled IFS data down to 1.1 km and four PBL parametrisations. Of the three cases studied, dynamical downscaling led to significant differences for the Manilla and Taipei releases that can be interpreted through changes in the modelled orographic flow regimes. The choice of PBL scheme also significantly impacted accuracy, but there was no systematically better-performing option, highlighting the benefits of ensemble forecasting. Results show how convergence and divergence between ensemble members can be utilised to help decision-making during field campaigns. This study highlights the role that dynamical downscaling can play as an important component in campaign planning when dealing with observations over orographically complex areas.

Abstract The profile of tephra concentration along a volcanic plume (i.e., the tephra segregation profile) is an important source parameter for the simulation of tephra transport and deposition and thus for the tephra sedimentation load. The most commonly-used approach is to treat an eruption as a single event (i.e., with a time-averaged mass eruption rate; MER). In this case, it is common to use pre-determined profiles that feature most of the tephra segregate at the top of the plume. However, case studies based on observations have revealed that large concentration maxima also appear at the lower part of the plume. To investigate this discrepancy, the impact of plume height on the temporal variations in the MER is examined. To this end, we use the tephra transport and dispersion model Tephra4D with MER estimates obtained from geophysical monitoring and maximum plume height observations to calculate the spatial distribution of the tephra deposit load for 39 eruptive events that consisted of explosions and quasi-steady particle emission from the Sakurajima volcano, Japan. A comparison of the model results with observations from a disdrometer network revealed that for both kinds of activity, maxima in tephra segregation can occur at heights below the reported plume height. The tephra segregation profiles of Vulcanian eruptions at Sakurajima volcano are consistent with most of the modeling studies giving profiles that feature most of the tephra segregating at the top of the plume if the temporal variation of the MER is taken into consideration to properly represent the total series of eruptive events in a sequence. This highlights that even though the activity at Sakurajima volcano is commonly characterized simply as Vulcanian eruptions, in addition to the primary plume developed due to the initial instantaneous release caused by the explosion, the subsequent continuous plume that can accompany the eruption plays an important role in particle emission. Calculations could not reproduce the simultaneous deposition of particles with a wide range of settling velocities in observations, suggesting the importance of volcanic ash fingers caused by gravitational instability in tephra transport simulations. Graphical Abstract