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Purpose: The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS NSQIP) surgical risk calculator is a risk stratification tool to help predict risks of postoperative complications, which is important for informed decision-making. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the calculator in predicting postoperative complications in patients undergoing common bile duct (CBD) exploration., Methods: A retrospective chart review was completed for 305 patients that underwent open and laparoscopic CBD exploration at a single institution from 2010 to 2018. Patient demographics and preoperative risk factors were entered into the calculator, and the predicted complication risks were compared with observed complication rates. Brier score, C-statistic, and Hosmer-Lemeshow regression analysis were used to assess discrimination and calibration., Results: The observed rate exceeded the predicted rate for any complication (35.1% vs. 21%), return to operating room (5.9% vs. 3.6%), death (3.3% vs. 1%), and sepsis (3% vs. 2.4%). The model performed best in predicting serious complication (Brier 0.087, C-statistic 0.818, Hosmer-Lemeshow 0.695), surgical site infection (Brier 0.068, C-statistic 0.670, Hosmer-Lemeshow 0.292), discharge to rehabilitation facility (Brier 0.041, C-statistic 0.907, Hosmer-Lemeshow 0.638), and death (Brier 0.028, C-statistic 0.898, Hosmer-Lemeshow 0.004). In multivariable analysis, there was no statistically significant predicted complication type that affected the type of surgery., Conclusion: The calculator was accurate in predicting serious complication, surgical site infection, discharge to rehabilitation facility, and death. However, the model displayed poor predictive ability in all other complications that were analyzed., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)

Background: Recurrence after common bile duct stone (CBDS) clearance is the major long-term drawback of their management. Its prevalence is significant, and it occurs after all primary therapeutic alternatives. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive factors associated with stone recurrence after surgical common bile duct exploration (CBDE)., Methods: A retrospective cohort study based on patients undergoing CBDE between 2000 and 2018 was conducted. Uni- and multivariate hierarchical regression analyses were performed to assess the independent predictive factors associated with recurrent CBDS in patients with initially successful surgery., Results: A total of 365 patients underwent successful surgical procedures. After a median follow-up of 43.2 (IQR 84) months, 31 (8.4%) patients were diagnosed with CBD stone recurrence. The median time to recurrence was 30.3 (IQR 38) months. The only variable associated with CBDS recurrence was preoperative endoscopic sphincterotomy (HR 2.436, 95% CI: 1.031-5.751, P = 0.042))., Conclusion: Patients who undergo preoperative endoscopic sphincterotomy and then cholecystectomy with successful common bile duct clearance may be at increased risk for recurrent stone disease compared to those who go straight to surgery., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature.)