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The construction industry is one of the major energy-saving fields. It is necessary to define the target of energy conservation and emission reduction targets according to the future social and economic development needs and the energy characteristics of the construction industry. Based on the population development model, a top-down method was used to calculate the stock of building floor space in China in this study. A bottom-up model was established to the calculated energy consumption of China’s construction sector. Different scenarios of energy consumption in China’s construction field were constructed. The future total energy consumption of buildings under different scenarios was predicted. The results found that under the situation of ‘slow development of urbanization + strict control of per capita area’, by 2050, the total area of various types of buildings in China will reach 69.78 billion m2. Under the scenario of ‘medium energy conservation and emission reduction’, by 2030, the target of building energy consumption control in China is 102 million tce. In order to achieve the goal of energy saving and emission reduction in China, the national building stock should be restricted within 70 billion m2. This paper aims to provide reference for long-term planning of energy saving and emission reduction in China’s construction field.

Based on the analysis of building energy consumption data, this paper estimates the total energy consumption of buildings in China in the future. Around the control target of building energy consumption, we proposed a policy guarantee system from the aspects of laws and regulations, energy-saving supervise assessment system, working mechanism, energy conservation standards, energy conservation technology, and energy price policy.