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During the last few years the Sun and solar wind have shown a behavior that was so unexpected that the phenomena was described as “the strange solar minimum”. It has been speculated that the 23/24 solar cycle minimum may have indicated the onset of a Maunder-Minimum-type Grand Minimum. Here we review what is known from 1500 years of proxy data about Maunder-type Grand Minima and the minima of the cyclic Centennial Gleissberg variations. We generate criteria that distinguish between the two types of event. Applying these criteria to the observed solar terrestrial data we conclude that the unexpected behavior began well before the solar cycle 23/24 minimum. The data do not support the Maunder Minimum conjecture. However, the behavior can be understood as a minimum of the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle that previously minimized in the beginning of the 20th century. We conclude that the Centennial Gleissberg Cycle is a persistent variation that has been present 80% of the time during the last 1500 years and should be explained by solar dynamo theory.

A data adaptive method called ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) is used to examine the 154-year record of monthly sea level at San Francisco. The mode that is lowest in frequency corresponds to the long-term trend. The next highest mode corresponds to an oscillation with a period of ~100 years and may be related to solar variability. When this mode is combined with the long-term trend, the rate of increase in sea level starts to decrease by ~1980. The next lower mode corresponds to interdecadal time scales and thus includes the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. When combined with the two lower modes, sea level itself starts to decrease by the mid-1990s. These results are consistent with the most recent results from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), and may be the first obtained from a tidal record. Prior to conducting EEMD, corrections for glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and the inverse barometer (IB) effect were applied. The effect of applying the GIA correction was relatively small, but the IB correction reduced the slope of the long-term trend in sea level by almost 15%. This reduction is due to a long-term increase in the variance of sea level pressure. To determine if the 10–15 year ENSO modulation cycle could be detected from the decomposition we first compared the envelope from the mode associated with ENSO, with the two adjacent modes that were lower in frequency. Spectral analysis revealed no significant maxima in the ENSO mode envelope, but a major peak in the spectrum for the two adjacent modes, with a period of 12.8 years. This is consistent with a local response to El Nino warming for the ENSO mode, but a non-local response for the two adjacent modes. A similar analysis was performed for the Southern Oscillation Index and a spectral maximum was found between 12 and 16 years, consistent with our non-local interpretation of the previous two modes.

Principal Components Analysis (PCA) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA) are used to identify global patterns in solar and space data. PCA seeks orthogonal modes of the two-point correlation matrix constructed from a data set. It permits the identification of structures that remain coherent and correlated or which recur throughout a time series. ICA seeks for maximally independent modes and takes into account all order correlations of the data. We apply PCA to the interplanetary-magnetic-field polarity near one AU and to the 3.25R source-surface fields in the solar corona. The rotations of the two-sector structures of these systems vary together to high accuracy during the active interval of solar cycle 23. We then use PCA and ICA to hunt for preferred longitudes in northern hemisphere, Carrington maps of magnetic fields., Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures

Although Modern Man had developed long before the migration from Africa began ∼ 55,000 years ago no agricultural societies developed until about ∼ 10,000 years ago. In the next 5,000 years agricultures developed independently in at least six regions of the world. It is virtually certain that it was not a chance occurrence that so many new agricultures appeared in the same 5,000 years. What inhibited agriculture world wide for 44,000 years and what changed ∼ 10,000 years ago? Here we suggest that a major factor influencing the development of agricultural societies was climate stability. From the experience of four cultures we estimate that the development of agriculture needed ∼ 2,000 years of climate free from significant climate variations on time scales of a few centuries. Using the Empirical Mode Decomposition technique specifically designed to exhibit the time history of the amplitude of variations in non-stationary time series such as climate proxy records, we find that between 50,000 years ago and the termination of the Younger Dryas ∼ 11,600 years ago there was probably no time span as long as 2,000 years that was free of relatively large century scale variations. Furthermore variations on these time scales appear to have been relatively small since the Younger Dryas (YD) ended, supporting our proposition concerning the importance of climate stability in the history of human culture.

A principal component analysis, or proper orthogonal decomposition, of the axisymmetric magnetic field at the photosphere is carried out to find an optimal representation of the observed solar cycle. The 22-year periodic field requires just two modes. NSO Kitt Peak synoptic maps for Carrington rotations 1664–2007 were reduced by taking both the mean and the median field over longitude to produce two sequences of functions of sine latitude spanning 25.7 years. The lowest modes of each are determined by the polar fields. The mean field is most efficient at representing the periodic field, but the median field is more efficient at representing the evolution of the diffuse field patterns.

Several studies have indicated that there may be two distinct types of coronal mass ejections (CMEs); a high-velocity bright energetic type associated with flares, and a smaller slower less impressive type associated with erupting prominences. How valid is this distinction? We analyze a CME combining attributes of both types, a high-velocity bright CME associated with an erupting prominence. A study of this event and several others allows us to argue that the apparent differences separating the two types may be an observational effect. Our results are consistent with a single CME process for both flare-associated and filament-associated CMEs. This process consists of three stages. The initial stage is brought about by the emergence of new magnetic flux, which interacts with the pre-existing magnetic configuration and results in a slow rise of the magnetic structure, which later becomes the CME. The second stage is a fast reconnection phase with flaring and a sudden increase of the rise velocity of the magnetic structure. It also includes a rapidly increasing CME acceleration followed by a rapidly falling acceleration. The third stage or CME propagation stage shows only slow changes in the acceleration and finally the velocity becomes constant. LASCO observes only the third stage. The differences found between observed flare-associated and prominence-associated CME velocity behavior appear to be primarily due to the relative heights in the corona at which the erupting structures form.

Below the scale of supergranules we find that cellular flows are present in the solar photosphere at two distinct size scales, approximately 2 Mm and 4 Mm, with distinct characteristic times. Simultaneously present in the flow is a non-cellular component, with turbulent scaling properties and containing 30% of the flow energy. These results are obtained by means of wavelet spectral analysis and modeling of vertical photospheric motions in a 2-hour sequence of 120 SOHO/MDI, high resolution, Doppler images near disk center. The wavelets permit detection of specific local flow patterns corresponding to convection cells.

Sunspots, seen as cool regions on the surface of the Sun, are a thermal phenomenon. Sunspots are always associated with bipolar magnetic loops that break through the solar surface. Thus to explain the origin of sunspots we have to understand how the magnetic field originates inside the Sun and emerges at its surface. The field predicted by mean-field dynamo theories is too weak by itself to emerge at the surface of the Sun. However, because of the turbulent character of solar convection the fields generated by dynamo are intermittent – i.e., concentrated into ropes or sheets with large spaces in between. The intermittent fields are sufficiently strong to be able to emerge at the solar surface, in spite of the fact that their mean (average) value is weak. It is suggested here that magnetic fields emerge at the solar surface at those random times and places when the total magnetic field (mean field plus fluctuations) exceeds the threshold for buoyancy. The clustering of coherently emerged loops results in the formation of a sunspot. A non-axisymmetric enhancement of the underlying magnetic field causes in the clustering of sunspots forming sunspot groups, clusters of activity and active longitudes. The mean field, which is not directly observable, is also important, being responsible for the ensemble regularities of sunspots, such as Hale's law of sunspot polarities and the 11-year periodicity.

Observations show that newly emerging flux tends to appear on the solar surface at sites where there is flux already; this results in clustering of solar activity. Standard dynamo theories do not predict this effect, and the mean field estimated by the theories is too weak to emerge at the surface of the Sun at all. Here a solution of the problem is suggested that involves strong fluctuating fields generated by the dynamo. The magnetic field emerges at the solar surface when the total field (the mean field plus fluctuations) exceeds the threshold for buoyancy. A slowly changing enhancement of the mean field provides a long-living basis ('hump') for emergence of fluctuating fields. The enhancements are gradually destroyed by the solar differential rotation, the stretching time scale of which defines the lifetime of clusters of activity. A simple 2-dimensional model explaining the appearance of persistent clusters of emerging flux is presented.

By using a nonlinear model of an axisymmetricα – Ω dynamo, an analytical expression which gives the magnitude of the mean magnetic field as a function of rotation and other parameters for a solar-type convective zone is obtained. The mean magnetic field varies as the\(\frac{3}{4}\) power of the rotation rate. The resulting theoretical relationship of the X-ray luminosity as a function of the angular velocity is in agreement with observations by Fleming, Gioia, and Maccacaro (1989).

The solar irradiante has been found to change by 0.1% over the recent solar cycle. A change of irradiante of about 0.5% is required to effect the Earth's climate. How frequently can a variation of this size be expected?

Observations demonstrate a nearly 22-year periodic zonal flow superimposed on general solar differential rotation (LaBonte and Howard, 1982) and some meridional motions (e.g., Tuominen, Tuominen, and Kyrolanen, 1983). Such flows can be excited by the magnetic wave generated by the dynamo in the solar convective zone.

An estimate of the dimension of the attractor of the dynamic system responsible for solar activity is obtained from the time series of carbon 14 experimental data (4300 BC to 1950 AD). According to this estimate the attractor is a fractal, in shape close to a 3-torus. The attractor's trajectories characterizing the evolution of the magnetic field exhibit irregular long-term behaviour.

We have applied a technique recently proposed basing on learning nonlinear dynamics locally to describe the annual sunspot relative numbers. It is proved that the number of past points for prediction should be greater than 4 but less than 10. This rather simple approach yields in average relatively good results for short-term forecasts (< 11 yr). Particularly, it predicts that the current cycle no. 22 will reach a very high maximum. However, this approach must be modified in the vicinity of a grand minimum.

In accordance with the data on the Faraday rotation, angular coordinates, and dispersion measurements and distances of 38 pulsars, the strengthB=2.1±1.1 μG and directionl=99°±24°,b≅0° of the large-scale galactic magnetic field and the mean electron density in the galactic discNe=0.03±0.01 cm−3 are determined. A comparison with the results of a study of the measures of rotation of extragalactic radio sources enabled us to estimate the characteristic half-width of the distribution of the electron density on the Z-coordinate (h≅400 ps). The characteristic size of galactic magnetic field flucturations is shown to be ℒ=100–150 ps.

The exact nonstationary solution for the variation of the magnetic field in the Schwarzschild metric with a given spherically symmetric flow is obtained. Initially a homogeneous magnetic field increases with time, changing into a quasi-radial field. On the assumption of equipartition between the magnetic and kinetic energies of a falling gas, in the relativistic case, estimates of the stationary field and the intensity of synchrotron radiation are presented. A considerable part of the radiation is formed in the relativistic regionr≲(2.5 to 7.7)r g (r g is the gravitational radius of a black hole). Estimates are made for radiation from the relativistic region in the case of disc type accretion.

The magnetic fields observed in the galactic disc are generated by the differential rotation and the helical turbulent motions of interstellar gas. On the scalesl=2πk−1 which lie in the intervall0

The kinematic dynamo equations for the mean magnetic field are solved with an asymptotic method of the WKB type. The excitation conditions and main characteristics of the non-axially symmetric modes for a given distribution of the sources are obtained. Utilization of the helioseismologic data on the Sun's internal rotation permits an explanation, within the framework of dynamo theory, of the excitation of the main non-axially symmetric modes revealed in the Sun's magnetic field sector structure.

The simplest αω dynamo in a thin disk is analysed. It the antisymmetric helicity function α(z) (wherez is a coordinate perpendicular to the disk plane) is smooth and limited, then the conditions for generating a magnetic field and the symmetry of the resulting solutions depend only on the form of α at the segment (0,h) — whereh is the half-thickness of the disk — and the value of the dimensionless dynamo numberD. When α(z) does not change its sign at this segment andD>D c (the critical dynamo number), the excitation of non-oscillating even (quadrupole) and oscillating odd (dipole) fields are possible. When α(z) changes its sign at the segment indicated, non-oscillating odd magnetic fields can also be excited.

We consider evolution of the regular magnetic field in turbulent astrophysical jets. The observed lateral expansion of a jet is approximately described by a linear in coordinates regular velocity field (the Hubble flow). It is shown that in expanding turbulent jets with non-vanishing mean helicity of the turbulence temporal amplification and effective realignment of the regular magnetic field occurs with the field changing orientation from the transverse to the longitudinal one along the jet axis. The distance at which the realiggment occurs depends on parameters of the jet, in particular, on the power of the central source. Estimates for the jet in a weak source 3C 31 favourably agree with observations.

An asymptotic solution of generation equations for the solar mean magnetic field is given and studied. The variation of rotational angular velocity with depth is taken from helioseismological data. Average helicity is prescribed according to the mixing length theory. It is shown that three dynamo waves of the magnetic field are excited. The first wave is generated at the surface layer and concentrates at latitudes of about 60°. Its activity becomes apparent in the poleward migration of the zone of polar faculae formation. The second more powerful wave of the field is excited in the center of the convection zone and its activity shows up in a sunspot cycle. The third wave which is similar to the first wave, is generated at the bottom of the convection zone and attenuates towards the surface. Its activity may appear as a three-fold reversal of the polar magnetic field.

An estimate for the anisotropy of the turbulent viscositys is given in a convective layer heated from below and rotating around a vertical axis. In the case of two-dimensional convection, there is a stationary regime withs⊇2 regardless of the rotation. In the case of three-dimensional convection in a slowly rotating layer (with the Taylor number equal to 1600), nonstationary turbulent regimes take place withs⊇1.6 forR=2.5×104 (R is the Rayleigh number) ands⊇1.2 forR=104.

The mechanism of the solar differential rotation usually ascribed to an anisotropic viscosity action is shown to be caused by Coriolis forces which influence anisotropic convective elements in a stratified medium. The estimation of an anisotropy parameters as a function of the convective zone depth is given. The value of (s−1) is positive near the solar surface and negative at the convective zone base, which is in good agreement with observations and the dynamo theory.

The stationary two-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic solution for the accretion of the matter without pressure into a gravitating centre of a black hole is obtained. It is assumed that the magnetic field far from the collapsed star is homogeneous and its influence on the flow is negligible. Around the star, at the plane perpendicular to the direction of the magnetic field, the dense quasistationary disc is formed, the structure of which in a large extent is determined by dissipation processes. The structure is calculated for (a) a laminar disc with the Coulomb mechanism of dissipation; and (b) a turbulent disc. The estimations of the parameters of the shock which result from the infall of the matter onto the disc are given. In the last section the numerical estimation and approximate character of the radiation spectrum of the disc and the shock are obtained for two cases of 10M ⊙ and 105 M ⊙. The luminosity of collapsed objects withM=10M ⊙ appears to be about solar, thus its observation is possibly only at the distances less than 300–1000 pc. The collapsed objects in the Galaxy withM=105 M ⊙ could constitute very bright sources in spectral regions from optical up to X-ray. The spectra of a laminar and a turbulent disc for 10M ⊙ black hole are very different. The laminar disc radiates primarily in the ultraviolet. The turbulent disc radiates a large part of its flux in the infrared. Therefore, one cannot exclude the possibility that some of the galactic infrared star-like sources are individual black holes in the accretion state.

The large-scale azimuth magnetic field is pumping to the bottom of the solar convective zone due to the diamagnetic action of turbulent conductive fluids. When the field at the bottom is of about 103 G, an equilibrium is established between diamagnetic pumping and buoyancy. If, in addition to the density gradient, an additional anisotropy exists (for instance, due to rotation), another mechanism of the magnetic field transfer appears, the efficiency of which greatly depends on the magnitude of the anistropy parameter.

The asymptotic properties of a turbulent disk dynamo at large dimensionless numbersR α andR ω characterizing the helicity and the differential rotation are analysed. Three types of generations in the dependence of the relations betweenR α andR ω are found: α2-dynamo and two types of αω-dynamo. For each of these types the rates of growth are obtained and the forms of solution are pointed out. Boundaries of the disk dynamo approximation are given.