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Ocean warming and population irruptions of crown-of-thorns starfish (CoTS; Acanthaster cf. solaris) are two of the greatest threats to coral reefs. As such, there is significant interest in understanding how CoTS may be directly impacted by rising ocean temperatures. Settlement of planktonic larvae and subsequent metamorphosis is purported to be a major population bottleneck in marine invertebrates, yet it is unknown how ocean warming will impact these processes in CoTS. Herein, the effect of temperature (28 °C ambient, 30 °C, 32 °C, 34 °C) on the settlement success, metamorphic success, and post-settlement survival of this corallivore was explored. While larval settlement was robust to elevated temperature, with at least 94% of larvae settling after 48 h across all temperatures, it was observed that settlement success was lower on substrate that had been pre-treated ≥ 32 °C. Metamorphic success was also significantly constrained at temperatures ≥ 32 °C. At 32 °C and 34 °C metamorphic success was 16% and 63% lower than at ambient temperature, respectively. Significant adverse effects of warming on post-settlement survival were observed at even cooler temperatures, with 10% lower survival at 30 °C compared to at ambient temperature, and at 34 °C, survival was 34% lower. Substantial reductions in metamorphic success and early post-settlement survival at elevated temperatures, as well as negative impacts of warming on the settlement substrate and its capacity to induce settlement, may present a bottleneck for recruitment in a warmer ocean.

Population irruptions of Pacific crown-of-thorns starfish (Acanthaster cf. solaris) have caused substantial damage to coral reefs, but it is largely unknown how this asteroid will fare in a warmer ocean. We exposed these starfish to one of four thermal treatments, with final temperatures of 26 °C (control, annual average), 28 °C (summer average), 30 °C (summer maximum) and 32 °C (predicted summer maximum by 2100). We measured the righting time, movement rate, standard metabolic rate and probability of survival of the crown-of-thorns starfish at various timepoints over ~ 60 days. We found that while temperature did not affect righting time, it did significantly affect movement rate. The movement rate of starfish increased across the 26 to 30 °C range, with those at 28 °C and 30 °C moving 18 and 27% faster than those at the control temperature. Similarly, the standard metabolic rate of starfish increased from 26 to 30 °C, with metabolism 100% and 260% faster at 28 °C and 30 °C compared to those at the 26 °C control. At 32 °C, individual starfish exhibited a 14% slower movement rate, a 33% slower metabolic rate, and also exhibited a fourfold lower probability of survival than those at 30 °C. These results indicate that 32 °C is above the thermal optimum of crown-of-thorns starfish, suggesting that prolonged exposure to temperatures that are expected to be regularly exceeded under near-future climate change may be detrimental to this species.