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Contains fulltext : 250880.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) In recent years, unobtrusive measures of self-regulated learning (SRL) processes based on log data recorded by digital learning environments have attracted increasing attention. However, researchers have also recognised that simple navigational log data or time spent on pages are often not fine-grained enough to study complex SRL processes. Recent advances in data-capturing technologies enabled researchers to go beyond simple navigational logs to measure SRL processes with multi-channel data. What multi-channel data can reveal about SRL processes, and to what extent can the addition of peripheral and eye-tracking data with navigational log data change and improve the measurement of SRL are key questions that require further investigation. Hence, we conducted a study and collected learning trace data generated by 25 university students in a laboratory setting, that aimed to address this problem by enhancing navigational log data with peripheral and eye-tracking data. We developed a trace-based measurement protocol of SRL, which interpreted raw trace data from multi-channel data into SRL processes. Specifically, the study compared the frequency and duration of SRL processes detected, how much duration and times of occurrences of the detected SRL processes were affected or refined. We also used a process mining technique to analyses how temporal sequencing of the detected SRL processes changed by enriching navigational log data with peripheral and eye-tracking data. The results revealed that by adding new data channels, we improved the capture of learning actions and detected SRL processes while enhancing the granularity of the measurement. In comparison to the use of navigational logs only, the completeness of temporal sequencing relationships between SRL processes with multi-channel data improved. In addition, we concluded that eye-tracking data is valuable for measuring and extracting SRL processes, and it should receive more attention in the future. 31 p.

Contains fulltext : 250033.pdf (Publisher’s version ) (Open Access) Contemporary research that looks at self-regulated learning (SRL) as processes of learning events derived from trace data has attracted increasing interest over the past decade. However, limited research has been conducted that looks into the validity of trace-based measurement protocols. In order to fill this gap in the literature, we propose a novel validation approach that combines theory-driven and data-driven perspectives to increase the validity of interpretations of SRL processes extracted from trace-data. The main contribution of this approach consists of three alignments between trace data and think aloud data to improve measurement validity. In addition, we define the match rate between SRL processes extracted from trace data and think aloud as a quantitative indicator together with other three indicators (sensitivity, specificity and trace coverage), to evaluate the "degree" of validity. We tested this validation approach in a laboratory study that involved 44 learners who learned individually about the topic of artificial intelligence in education with the use of a technology-enhanced learning environment for 45 minutes. Following this new validation approach, we achieved an improved match rate between SRL processes extracted from trace-data and think aloud data (training set: 54.24%; testing set: 55.09%) compared to the match rate before applying the validation approach (training set: 38.97%; test set: 34.54%). By considering think aloud data as "reference point", this improvement of the match rate quantified the extent to which validity can be improved by using our validation approach. In conclusion, the novel validation approach presented in this study used both empirical evidence from think aloud data and rationale from our theoretical framework of SRL, which now, allows testing and improvement of the validity of trace-based SRL measurements. 39 p.

Weighted scoring rules, perhaps the most common procedures for multi-candidate, single-winner elections, are defined by score vectors, of which the Borda Count is the best known example. The concept of Borda dominance identifies candidates who cannot win under any score vector; we assess its usefulness in the context of single-winner elections. We propose several families of score vectors that can accommodate any number of candidates, asking whether any of them can improve on Borda Count. Using large-scale simulation, we compare score vectors on Condorcet efficiency, or ability to find a Condorcet winner when one exists, on resilience to ballot truncation, and on ability to maximize the Copeland score using both complete and uniformly truncated ballots. Borda performs well on criteria related to Condorcet winner and Copeland score but, depending on the preference model, may not be optimal. Convex score vectors are the most resilient to ballot truncation.

The Whakaari/White Island volcano, located ~ 50 km off the east coast of the North Island in New Zealand, has experienced sequences of quiescence, unrest, magmatic and phreatic eruptions over the last decades. For the last 15 years, seismic data have been continuously archived providing potential insight into this frequently active volcano. Here we take advantage of this unusually long time series to retrospectively process the seismic data using ambient noise and tremor-based methodologies. We investigate the time (RSAM) and frequency (Power Spectral Density) evolution of the volcanic tremor, then estimate the changes in the shallow subsurface using the Displacement Seismic Amplitude Ratio (DSAR), relative seismic velocity (dv/v) and decorrelation, and the Luni-Seismic Correlation (LSC). By combining our new set of observations with the long-term evolution of earthquakes, deformation, visual observations and geochemistry, we review the activity of Whakaari/White Island between 2007 and the end of 2018. Our analysis reveals the existence of distinct patterns related to the volcano activity with periods of calm followed by cycles of pressurization and eruptions. We finally put these results in the wider context of forecasting phreatic eruptions using continuous seismic records.

The fundamental design and inherent capabilities of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR) to address a rich range of complex real world conflict situations are put into perspective by tracing its historical development over a period spanning more than 30 years, and highlighting great opportunities for meaningful future expansions within an era of artificial intelligence (AI) and intensifying conflict in an over-crowded world. By constructing a sound theoretical foundation for GMCR based upon assumptions reflecting what actually occurs in reality, a fascinating story is narrated on how GMCR was able to expand in bold new directions as well as take advantage of many important legacy decision technologies built within the earlier Metagame Analysis and later Conflict Analysis paradigms. From its predecessors, for instance, GMCR could benefit by the employment of option form put forward within Metagame Analysis for effectively recording a conflict, as well as preference elicitation techniques and solution concepts for defining chess-like behavior when calculating stability of states from the realm of Conflict Analysis. The key ideas outlined in the paper underlying the current and projected capabilities of GMCR include the development of four different ways to handle preference uncertainty in the presence of either transitive or intransitive preferences; a wide range of solution concepts for describing many kinds of human behavior under conflict; unique coalition analysis algorithms for determining if a given decision maker can fare better in a dispute via cooperation; tracing the evolution of a conflict over time; and the matrix formulation of GMCR for computational efficiency when calculating stability and also theoretically expanding GMCR in bold new directions. Inverse engineering is mentioned as an AI extension of GMCR for computationally determining the preferences required by decision makers in order to reach a desirable state, such as a climate change agreement in which all nations significantly cut back on their greenhouse gas emissions. The basic design of a decision support system for permitting researchers and practitioners to readily apply the foregoing and other advancements in GMCR to tough real world controversies is discussed. Although GMCR has been successfully applied to challenging disputes arising in many different fields, a simple climate change negotiation conflict between the US and China is utilized to explain clearly key concepts mentioned throughout the fascinating historical journey surrounding GMCR.

In ranked-choice elections, voters vote by indicating their preference orderings over the candidates. A ballot is truncated when the ordering is incomplete (called partial voting). Sometimes truncation is forced—voters are allowed to rank only a limited number of candidates—but sometimes it is voluntary. During the vote tabulating process, a truncated ballot is exhausted when all of the candidates it ranks have been eliminated. Ballot exhaustion and, therefore ballot truncation, is a concern in single-winner elections when the margin of victory in the final stage is less than the number of exhausted ballots. That concern motivates our study. We review evidence from actual single-winner ranked-choice elections and conclude that voluntary ballot truncation is very common. Moreover, it is difficult to explain strategically. To assess the significance of ballot truncation, we simulate ranked-choice elections with four, five and six candidates, using both spatial and random models of voter preferences. Does truncation change the probability that a Condorcet winner wins the election? Does the winner change as the extent of truncation increases? We find that even small amounts of truncation can alter election outcomes.

Dempster-Shafer Theory (DST) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are integrated in order to elicit preference information from experts regarding decision makers (DMs) involved in a regulatory conflict. More precisely, DST is used for combining expert knowledge regarding preferences of a specific DM(the regulatory body), and AHP is employed for ranking feasible states in the conflict for this same DM. In order to illustrate how this preference elicitation proposal can be conveniently implemented in practice within the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution (GMCR), it is applied to a real construction dispute located in the city of Ipojuca, Brazil. The conflict is modeled with three DMs: support, opposition, and the regulatory body. Results show that the new preference methodology possesses many inherent advantages including high flexibility, the ability to capture uncertainty or even ignorance about preferences, the possibility of combining expert knowledge with respect to missing preferences, and a substantial reduction in the number of pairwise comparisons of states required to express preference information.

The title compound, diethyl (6-methyl-2-pyridyl)aminoethylenemalonate (1), crystallises in the monoclinic space group P21/c (No. 14). The unit cell parameters are a = 10.5657(7) A, b = 9.1784(5) A, c = 14.5681(7) A, β = 101.636(6)°, Z′ = 1 and Z = 4 at 150 K. The extended structure forms approximately orthogonal columns of stacked molecules. All bond lengths and angles are unremarkable. No disorder, twinning or co-crystallised solvent is present in the structure. An intramolecular hydrogen bond exists between the enamine nitrogen and carbonyl oxygen. Hirshfeld surface analysis reveals a short contact between a carbonyl oxygen and neighbouring aryl hydrogen, as well as a carbonyl–carbonyl interaction. The X-ray structure of diethyl (6-methyl-2-pyridyl)aminoethylenemalonate (1), an intermediate in the synthesis of ethyl nalidixate, is reported, and Hirshfeld surface analysis employed to identify intermolecular interactions within the structure.

A new episode of unrest and phreatic/phreatomagmatic/magmatic eruptions occurred at Ambae volcano, Vanuatu, in 2017–2018. We installed a multi-station seismo-acoustic network consisting of seven 3-component broadband seismic stations and four 3-element (26–62 m maximum inter-element separation) infrasound arrays during the last phase of the 2018 eruption episode, capturing at least six reported major explosions towards the end of the eruption episode. The observed volcanic seismic signals are generally in the passband 0.5–10 Hz during the eruptive activity, but the corresponding acoustic signals have relatively low frequencies (

Surgical stress results in a significant reduction in natural killer (NK) cell cytotoxicity (NKC), which has been linked to postoperative cancer metastases. However, few studies have measured the impact of surgical stress upon NK cell IFNγ secretion (NKA), a cytokine with essential roles in controlling infection and metastases. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of surgical stress on NKA in colorectal cancer (CRC) surgery patients. Peripheral blood was collected from CRC surgery patients (n = 42) preoperatively and on postoperative day (POD) 1, 3, 5, 28, and 56. Healthy donor blood (n = 27) was collected for controls. We assessed NKA by production of IFNγ following whole blood cytokine stimulation, NKC by 51Cr-release assay, and immune cell profiling by flow cytometry. The mean reduction in NKA on POD1 compared with baseline was 83.1% (standard deviation 25.2%; confidence interval 75–91), and therefore the study met the primary endpoint of demonstrating a > 75% decrease in a cohort of CRC surgery patients (p

A new analysis technique, appropriate to situations of high preference uncertainty, is added to the graph model for conflict resolution methodology. Interval fuzzy stabilities are now formulated, based on decision makers’ (DMs’) interval fuzzy preferences over feasible scenarios or states in a conflict. Interval fuzzy stability notions enhance the applicability of the graph model, and generalize its crisp and fuzzy preference-based stability ideas. A graph model is both a formal representation and an analysis procedure for multiple participant-multiple objective decisions that employs stability concepts representing various forms of human behavior under conflict. Defined based on a type-2 fuzzy logic, an interval fuzzy preference for one state over another is represented by a subinterval of [0, 1] indicating an interval-valued preference degree for the first state over the second. The interval fuzzy stabilities put forward in this research are interval fuzzy Nash stability, interval fuzzy general metarational stability, interval fuzzy symmetric metarational stability, and interval fuzzy sequential stability. A state is interval fuzzy stable for a DM if moving to any other state is not adequately desirable to the DM; where adequacy is measured by the interval fuzzy satisficing threshold of the DM and farsightedness, involving possible moves and countermoves by DMs, is determined by the interval fuzzy stability notion selected. Note that infinitely many degrees in an interval-valued preference are preserved in characterizing the desirability of a move. A state from which no DM can move to any sufficiently desirable scenario is an interval fuzzy equilibrium, and is interpreted as a possible resolution of the strategic conflict under study. The new stability concept is illustrated through its application to an environmental conflict that took place in Elmira, Ontario, Canada. Insightful results are identified and discussed.

A duo hierarchical graph model for conflict resolution is developed to investigate market competition between Airbus and Boeing over aircraft sales in the Asia Pacific region. The duo hierarchical graph model, a significant extension of the graph model for conflict resolution methodology, contains two common decision makers, who take part in two related subconflicts, as well as local decision makers, who participate in only one subconflict. New stability definitions are proposed to describe forms of sanction unique to the hierarchical model. The interrelationships between stabilities in the overall graph model and in the two local models are investigated. Then the duo hierarchical graph model is applied to the competition between Airbus and Boeing in both the wide and narrow body markets in the Asia-Pacific region. The two types of Asian airlines have different operating strategies, so that the two markets constitute sub-competitions that can be modelled naturally using the duo hierarchical graph model. The stability results indicate a resolution for all decision makers that implies marketing strategies for the aircraft manufacturers and guidelines for aircraft purchase by the airlines. Thus, this model provides decision makers with a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the competition and guidance in identifying beneficial actions.

Maximal voluntary rate (MVR) performance tasks can provide important age-related information to the limiting factors associated with movement and the development of fatigue. To determine whether kinematic and muscle activation patterns during an MVR task differ between young and older adults. We continuously measured frequency, amplitude, peak velocity, index of co-contraction and median frequencies of the index finger flexors and extensors during a 20-s MVR task in 10 young and 10 older subjects. Index finger amplitude and peak velocity in flexion and extension were significantly lower in the older group. During the MVR, amplitude was maintained in the old (1–4 s, 53.2° ± 2.8° vs. 15–19 s, 48.6° ± 3.2°, ns) but not in the younger group (1–4 s, 64.9° ± 4.9° vs. 15–19 s, 59.4° ± 3.3°; p = 0.001). Frequency declined in the young (1–4 s, 5.2 ± 0.24 Hz vs. 15–19 s, 4.4 ± 0.25 Hz; p = 0.001) and old (1–4 s, 4.6 ± 0.17 Hz vs. 15–19 s, 4.0 ± 0.15 Hz; p = 0.01). Similarly, peak flexion velocity of the young (1–4 s, 1.77 ± 0.07 × 103 °/s vs. 15–19 s, 1.01 ± 0.07 × 103 °/s, p = 0.01) and older groups (1–4 s, 1.04 ± 0.07 × 103 °/s vs. 15–19 s, 0.78 ± 0.06 × 103 °/s; p = 0.016) as well as peak extension velocity of the young (1–4 s, 1.01 ± 0.053 × 103 °/s vs. 15–19 s, 0.78 ± 0.06 × 103 °/s, p = 0.01) and older groups (1–4 s, 0.72 ± 0.04 × 103 °/s vs. 15–19 s, 0.58 ± 0.05 × 103 °/s, p = 0.012) significantly decreased throughout the MVR. Median frequency of the flexors and extensors were maintained and were not different between groups. Only the older group experienced an increase in the index of co-contraction. The changes in kinematics over time are not a result of a decrease in pre-post test force or velocity, but rather central factors affecting movement coordination.

A group decision-making methodology is proposed that permits each member of a group to state his or her preferences with respect to combinations of alternative solutions to a problem during a collective process to arrive at a compromise via a special voting procedure. The possible combinations of alternatives are systematically generated using an option form approach. Decision-makers (DMs) individually rank combinations based on their preferences by providing ordinal information in an interactive way, reducing the cognitive burden of making many comparisons or defining tradeoffs. In this approach, each DM expresses his or her preferences using logical preference statements regarding combinations of alternatives. A group recommendation is obtained after aggregating the final individual ranks through a voting procedure, and a voting support system, based on classification by quartiles. The voting procedure is simple and transparent for voters and does not present severe computational difficulties, thereby making this approach an appropriate tool for employment in the context of group-decision making. To illustrate its applicability, the proposed methodology is applied to a realistic decision problem faced by a watershed committee in Brazil.

In US presidential elections, voters in noncompetitive states seem not to count—and have zero power, according to standard measures of voting power—because they cannot influence the outcome in their states. But the electoral votes of these states are essential to a candidate’s victory, so they do count, but in a different way. We propose a simple model that enables us to measure the setup power of voters in noncompetitive states by modeling how these states structure the contest in the competitive states, as illustrated by the 2012, 2008, 2004, and 2000 presidential elections. We define three measures of setup power—winningness, vulnerability, and fragility—and show how they pinpoint the advantages of the candidate who leads in electoral votes of noncompetitive states. In fact, this candidate won in all four elections.

Assume that two players have strict rankings over an even number of indivisible items. We propose two algorithms to find balanced allocations of these items that are maximin—maximize the minimum rank of the items that the players receive—and are envy-free and Pareto-optimal, if such allocations exist. To determine whether an envy-free allocation exists, we introduce a simple condition on preference profiles; in fact, our condition guarantees the existence of a maximin, envy-free, and Pareto-optimal allocation. Although not strategy-proof, our algorithms would be difficult to manipulate unless a player has complete information about its opponent’s ranking. We assess the applicability of the algorithms to real-world problems, such as allocating marital property in a divorce or assigning people to committees or projects.

Free-roaming cat populations are increasing in urban areas around the world. Management strategies remain controversial, as attempts to rapidly minimize the impact of cats may conflict with finding an ethical means of population reduction in this domesticated species. Trap-Neuter-Return (TNR) is a non-lethal strategy which can theoretically lead to population decline with an ethical approach. The present study aimed to estimate free-roaming cat populations and also to measure the efficacy of a one-year TNR campaign in a highly urban area. Using a sight/resight methodology, we examined free-roaming cat populations in four sites across two neighbourhoods (Harlem and Bedford-Stuyvesant) in New York City. Sampling was repeated after 1 year, during which an intensive TNR effort occurred in each of those areas. Results from this study found population estimates range from 2.6-4.1 cats/km. Additionally, we found between 78-98% turnover in each study area. After one year of TNR, the proportion of sterilised individuals in our treatment sites increased to 50%. Model results suggest there is no evidence that sterilised individuals are more likely to be encountered, indicating that sterilisation may not affect movement patterns of cats. Free-roaming cats occur at high densities at all study sites, though populations varied, even within the same neighbourhood. We found evidence of considerable migration within study sites, which further complicates the application of a sterilisation management strategy. Management strategies directed toward free-roaming cats, such as TNR, may require a broad-scale approach, involving different facets of the community and should occur over multiple years.

Human-wildlife conflict is increasing as urbanization expands and wildlife species adjust to living near people. Translocation is often used to manage human-wildlife conflict because it is considered to be humane, yet fates of translocated animals are largely unknown. As an urban adapter, woodchucks (Marmota monax) are a common source of human-wildlife conflict due to their burrowing, foraging, and scent-marking behavior. We examined survival and movements of 27 nuisance woodchucks captured by a nuisance wildlife operator in the Chicago metropolitan area, radiomarked with internal transmitters, and translocated to exurban release sites mimicking typical practices. We also captured and radiomarked 16 resident woodchucks from the release landscape for comparison. Translocated woodchucks moved farther than residents immediately post release with no evidence of homing and most left the release site. Annual survival did not differ between translocated and resident woodchucks. However, survival was extremely low (0.18) compared to previous estimates for woodchucks, primarily due to high predation by coyotes (Canis latrans). Translocation should be used only when other nonlethal methods are ineffective (e.g., exclusion, removing food sources, selecting unpalatable plants for gardens). When necessary, the practice of translocation could be improved by reducing predation risk for translocated animals, either by selecting release sites with low predation risk, or by using soft-release methods, such as acclimation enclosures or artificial burrows.

Multi-winner elections, for example, the election of members to a committee, are now quite common, and include the interesting subclass of elections with a variable number of winners, or VNW elections. In VNW elections, voters determine how many winners there are, as well as which candidates win. Common VNW elections include elections to bestow honorary status, such as enshrinement in a hall of fame, and elections to determine a shortlist of, say, job candidates for interviews. Such elections are VNW elections whenever the number of winners is not specified in advance. Multi-winner elections are often conducted by adapting standard procedures for single-winner elections. Approval balloting is particularly appropriate for multi-winner elections, as every ballot, and the set of winners, are subsets of the set of all candidates. Many methods of counting approval ballots appropriate to VNW elections are reviewed and illustrated, and their properties—desirable and undesirable—discussed.

A novel approach for assessing the robustness of an equilibrium in conflict resolution is presented. Roughly, an equilibrium is robust if it is resilient, or resistant to deviation. Robustness assessment is based on a new concept called Level of Freedom, which evaluates the relative freedom of a decision maker to escape an equilibrium. Resolutions of a conflict can be affected by changes in decision makers’ preferences, which may destabilize an equilibrium, causing the conflict to evolve. Hence, a conflict may become long-term and thereby continue to evolve, even after reaching an equilibrium. The new robustness measure is used to rank equilibria based on robustness, to facilitate distinguishing equilibria that are relatively sustainable. An absolutely robust equilibrium is a special case in which the level of freedom is at an absolute minimum for each individual stability definition.

An option prioritization technique is developed to efficiently elicit the preferences, both unknown and crisp, of decision makers (DMs) in strategic conflicts. In the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, each DM has one or more options, each of which may be selected or not. A state, or possible scenario, is formed when all DMs make an option selection. The software GMCR II contains an option prioritization procedure that makes it easy for a modeller to enter a DM’s crisp preference ordering over the states using prioritized statements describing the DM’s preferred option combinations. This procedure is extended by adding two new logical connectives that describe uncertainty of preference. For each DM, a range of possible scores for each feasible state can then be calculated, facilitating the determination of a preference ordering containing uncertainty by comparing and ranking scores. To demonstrate how this new methodology can be used to represent unknown preferences in a real-world decision problem, it is applied to a Canadian dispute over proposed water exports.

Vesicles in volcanic rocks are physical records of magmatic degassing; however, the interpretation of their textures is complicated by resorption, coalescence, and collapse. We discuss the textural significance of vesicle-hosted vapor-phase cristobalite (high-T, low-P SiO2 polymorph), and its utility as a complement to textural assessments of magmatic degassing, using a representative dacite bomb erupted from White Island volcano (New Zealand) in 1999. Imaging in 2D (SEM) and 3D (CT) shows the bomb to have 56% bulk porosity, almost all of which is connected (~ 99%) and devoid of SiO2 phases. The remaining (~ 1%) of porosity is in isolated, sub-spherical vesicles that have corroded walls and contain small (

A numerical method is proposed to represent the likelihood of contamination of a brownfield using fuzzy boundaries, and then to estimate the parameters in a fuzzy real options model for brownfield evaluation from different decision maker perspectives. These different values can be used to facilitate negotiations on redevelopment projects. Linguistic quantifiers and ordered weighted averaging (OWA) techniques are utilized to determine the pollution likelihood at sample locations based on multiple environmental indicators. Risk preferences of decision makers are expressed as different “orness” levels of OWA operators, which affect likelihood estimates. When the fuzzy boundary of a brownfield is generated by interpolation of sample points, the parameters of fuzzy real options, drift rate and volatility, can be calculated as fuzzy numbers. Hence, this proposed method can act as an intermediate between decision makers and the fuzzy real options models, making this model much easier to apply. A potential negotiation support system (NSS) implementing these numerical methods is discussed in the context of negotiating brownfield redevelopment projects. A public–private-partnership will be enhanced through information sharing, scenario generation, and conflict analysis provided by the NSS, encouraging more efficient brownfield redevelopment and leading to greater regional sustainability.