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International audience; Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.Understanding of the effects of elevated CO2 on crops has improved sufficiently that modelling future climatic effects on agriculture should eliminate 'no CO2' simulations. Further advancement in the estimation of the effects can be realized by studying a wider variety of crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improving the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models and simulating additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

Crop growth models have many uncertainties that affect the yield response to climate change. Based on that, the aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of crop models to systematic changes in climate for simulating soybean attainable yield in Southern Brazil. Four crop models were used to simulate yields: AQUACROP, MONICA, DSSAT, and APSIM, as well as their ensemble. The simulations were performed considering changes of air temperature (0, + 1.5, + 3.0, + 4.5, and + 6.0 °C), [CO2] (380, 480, 580, 680, and 780 ppm), rainfall (- 30, - 15, 0, + 15, and + 30%), and solar radiation (- 15, 0, + 15), applied to daily values. The baseline climate was from 1961 to 2014, totalizing 53 crop seasons. The crop models simulated a reduction of attainable yield with temperature increase, reaching 2000 kg ha-1 for the ensemble at + 6 °C, mainly due to shorter crop cycle. For rainfall, the yield had a higher rate of reduction when it was diminished than when rainfall was increased. The crop models increased yield variability when solar radiation was changed from - 15 to + 15%, whereas [CO2] rise resulted in yield gains, following an asymptotic response, with a mean increase of 31% from 380 to 680 ppm. The models used require further attention to improvements in optimal and maximum cardinal temperature for development rate; runoff, water infiltration, deep drainage, and dynamic of root growth; photosynthesis parameters related to soil water availability; and energy balance of soil-plant system to define leaf temperature under elevated CO2.

Increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce plant water use. Research now reveals regional disparities in this effect on crops, with potential implications for food production and water consumption. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]) are expected to enhance photosynthesis and reduce crop water use1. However, there is high uncertainty about the global implications of these effects for future crop production and agricultural water requirements under climate change. Here we combine results from networks of field experiments1,2 and global crop models3 to present a spatially explicit global perspective on crop water productivity (CWP, the ratio of crop yield to evapotranspiration) for wheat, maize, rice and soybean under elevated [CO2] and associated climate change projected for a high-end greenhouse gas emissions scenario. We find CO2 effects increase global CWP by 10[0;47]%–27[7;37]% (median[interquartile range] across the model ensemble) by the 2080s depending on crop types, with particularly large increases in arid regions (by up to 48[25;56]% for rainfed wheat). If realized in the fields, the effects of elevated [CO2] could considerably mitigate global yield losses whilst reducing agricultural consumptive water use (4–17%). We identify regional disparities driven by differences in growing conditions across agro-ecosystems that could have implications for increasing food production without compromising water security. Finally, our results demonstrate the need to expand field experiments and encourage greater consistency in modelling the effects of rising [CO2] across crop and hydrological modelling communities.

Sustainable management practices are needed to enhance soil organic carbon (SOC) in degraded soils in semi-arid West Africa. We studied the effects of three amounts of nitrogen (N) (0, 60 and 120 kg N ha−1) and three amounts of phosphorus (P) fertilizer (0, 26 and 39 kg P ha−1) application over four seasons on maize residue production, residue C, N, and P concentrations, and their impacts on SOC, total soil nitrogen (TSN), and total soil phosphorus (TSP) in the 0–20 cm soil layer. Combined application of N and P fertilizers substantially increased maize grain yield on average by 294 % and biomass produced and returned to the soil by about 60–70 % compared with no fertilization. Annual C, N, and P inputs from crop residue were significantly higher with combined application of N and P fertilizer. The increased amount of crop residue and consequent increased residue C, N and P returned to the soil significantly increased SOC, TSN and TSP in the 0–20 cm soil layer after four seasons. There was a significant correlation between the amount of crop residues returned to the soil over four seasons and SOC (r = 0.82; P = 0.007), TSN (r = 0.75; P = 0.020) and TSP (r = 0.69; P = 0.039). We concluded from these experiments that returning crop residues, application of inorganic fertilizer improves SOC, TSN and TSP concentrations and enhances crop productivity. The farmers who traditionally remove crop residues for fodder and fuel will require demonstration of the relative benefits of residues return to soil for sustainable crop productivity.

Crop models are one of the most commonly used tools to assess the impact of climate variability and change on crop production. However, before the impact of projected climate changes on crop production can be addressed, a necessary first step is the assessment of the inherent uncertainty and limitations of the forcing data used in these crop models. In this paper, we evaluate the simulated crop production using separate crop models for maize (summer crop) and wheat (winter crop) over six different locations in the Southeastern United States forced with multiple sources of actual and simulated weather data. The paper compares the crop production simulated by a crop model for maize and wheat during a historical period, using daily weather data from three sources: station observations, dynamically downscaled global reanalysis, and dynamically downscaled historical climate model simulations from two global circulation models (GCMs). The same regional climate model is used to downscale the global reanalysis and both global circulation models’ historical simulation. The average simulated yield derived from bias-corrected downscaled reanalysis or bias-corrected downscaled GCMs were, in most cases, not statistically different from observations. Statistical differences of the average yields, generated from observed or downscaled GCM weather, were found in some locations under rainfed and irrigated scenarios, and more frequently in winter (wheat) than in summer (maize). The inter-annual variance of simulated crop yield using GCM downscaled data was frequently overestimated, especially in summer. An analysis of the bias-corrected climate data showed that despite the agreement between the modeled and the observed means of temperatures, solar radiation, and precipitation, their intra-seasonal variances were often significantly different from observations. Therefore, due to this high intra-seasonal variability, a cautious approach is required when using climate model data for historical yield analysis and future climate change impact assessments.

Climate change is projected to intensify drought and heat stress in groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) crop in rainfed regions. This will require developing high yielding groundnut cultivars that are both drought and heat tolerant. The crop growth simulation model for groundnut (CROPGRO-Groundnut model) was used to quantify the potential benefits of incorporating drought and heat tolerance and yield-enhancing traits into the commonly grown cultivar types at two sites each in India (Anantapur and Junagadh) and West Africa (Samanko, Mali and Sadore, Niger). Increasing crop maturity by 10 % increased yields up to 14 % at Anantapur, 19 % at Samanko and sustained the yields at Sadore. However at Junagadh, the current maturity of the cultivar holds well under future climate. Increasing yield potential of the crop by increasing leaf photosynthesis rate, partitioning to pods and seed-filling duration each by 10 % increased pod yield by 9 to 14 % over the baseline yields across the four sites. Under current climates of Anantapur, Junagadh and Sadore, the yield gains were larger by incorporating drought tolerance than heat tolerance. Under climate change the yield gains from incorporating both drought and heat tolerance increased to 13 % at Anantapur, 12 % at Junagadh and 31 % at Sadore. At the Samanko site, the yield gains from drought or heat tolerance were negligible. It is concluded that different combination of traits will be needed to increase and sustain the productivity of groundnut under climate change at the target sites and the CROPGRO-Groundnut model can be used for evaluating such traits.

High temperature stress-induced male sterility is a critical problem in grain sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) that significantly compromises crop yields. Grain sorghum plants were grown season-long under ambient (30/20 degrees C, day-time maximum/night-time minimum) and high temperature (36/26 degrees C) conditions in sunlit Soil-Plant-Atmospheric-Research (SPAR) growth chambers. We report data on the effects of high temperature on sugar levels and expression profiles of genes related to sugar-to-starch metabolism in microspore populations represented by pre- and post-meiotic "early" stages through post-mitotic "late" stages that show detectable levels of starch deposition. Microspores from high temperature stress conditions showed starch-deficiency and considerably reduced germination, translating into 27% loss in seed-set. Sugar profiles showed significant differences in hexose levels at both "early" and "late" stages at the two temperature regimes; and most notably, undetectable sucrose and approximately 50% lower starch content in "late" microspores from heat-stressed plants. Northern blot, quantitative PCR, and immunolocalization data revealed a significant reduction in the steady-state transcript abundance of SbIncw1 gene and CWI proteins in both sporophytic as well as microgametophytic tissues under high temperature conditions. Northern blot analyses also indicated greatly altered temporal expression profiles of various genes involved in sugar cleavage and utilization (SbIncw1, SbIvr2, Sh1, and Sus1), transport (Mha1 and MST1) and starch biosynthesis (Bt2, SU1, GBSS1, and UGPase) in heat-stressed plants. Collectively, these data suggest that impairment of CWI-mediated sucrose hydrolysis and subsequent lack of sucrose biosynthesis may be the most upstream molecular dysfunctions leading to altered carbohydrate metabolism and starch deficiency under elevated growth temperature conditions.

Elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration increases plant photosynthesis, biomass and carbohydrate accumulation. Since plants have grown in low CO2 (200 to 300 µmol mol−1) for the last several million years, how will they use extra photoassimilate as the atmospheric CO2 continues to rise? The objectives were to determine the effects of past, present and projected future levels of CO2 on diurnal and seasonal patterns of total nonstructural carbohydrate (TNC) concentration of soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] tissues. Plants were grown at 160, 220, 280, 330, 660 and 990 µmol mol−1 CO2 in outdoor, sunlit chambers wherein CO2 uptake rates were measured continuously. Early morning and late afternoon plant samples were taken at eight dates. The TNC concentration of leaves, petioles and stems increased as CO2 increased. Canopy photosynthetic rates also increased with increasing CO2, apparently without any negative impact of increased leaf TNC. Concentrations of TNC in all vegetative tissues were lower in the morning than the afternoon, which indicates overnight mobilization and utilization of carbohydrates for growth processes. The concentration of TNC was lowest in all plant components during rapid vegetative growth at V8 to R2 developmental stages. Leaves of all plants, especially those grown in superambient CO2, contained large pools of TNC at plant maturity, which indicated that not all of the reserves were utilized for seed yield. Soybean cultivars for the future should be designed to utilize carbohydrates more readily for seed production so that greater benefit can be realized from rising atmospheric CO2.

Agricultural productivity is expected to be sensitive to global climate change. Models from atmospheric science, plant science, and agricultural economics are linked to explore this sensitivity. Although the results depend on the severity of climate change and the compensating effects of carbon dioxide on crop yields, the simulation suggests that irrigated acreage will expand and regional patterns of U.S. agriculture will shift. The impact of the U.S. economy strongly depends on which climate model is used.

Early-maturing soybean lines (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) grown in subtropical areas during short days can produce economic seed yields. However, the plants are short, and many of the pods are produced close to the soil, making commercial harvest difficult. The feasibility of increasing the lengths of the first three internodes by growth regulator application was evaluated at two locations over a 3-year period using separate plots of Amsoy 71 (Maturity Group (MG) II) and Williams (MG III) soybean by spraying each cultivar with 0, 25, or 50 g (a.i.) ha−1 of gibberellic acid (GA) in 280 L ha−1 water when the hypocotyl was cracking the soil. The 25 g ha−1 treatment increased (p