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Both climate scientists and non-scientists (laypeople) attribute extreme weather events to various influences. Laypeople’s attributions for these events are important as these attributions likely influence their views and actions about climate change and extreme events. Research has examined laypeople’s attribution scepticism about climate change in general; however, few climate scientists are familiar with the processes underpinning laypeople’s attributions for individual extreme events. Understanding these lay attributions is important for scientists to communicate their findings to the public. Following a brief summary of the way climate scientists calculate attributions for extreme weather events, we focus on cognitive and motivational processes that underlie laypeople’s attributions for specific events. These include a tendency to prefer single-cause rather than multiple-cause explanations, a discounting of whether possible causes covary with extreme events, a preference for sufficient causes over probabilities, applying prevailing causal narratives, and the influence of motivational factors. For climate scientists and communicators who wish to inform the public about the role of climate change in extreme weather events, these patterns suggest several strategies to explain scientists’ attributions for these events and enhance public engagement with climate change. These strategies include showing more explicitly that extreme weather events reflect multiple causal influences, that climate change is a mechanism that covaries with these events and increases the probability and intensity of many of these events, that human emissions contributing to climate change are controllable, and that misleading communications about weather attributions reflect motivated interests rather than good evidence.

Background There is general agreement that in some circumstances, sharing a sleep surface of any kind with an infant increases the risk of sudden unexpected death in infancy. There is a paucity of research conducted in Australia examining this issue. This study examines the frequency and distribution of sleep-related infant deaths in a defined population, and reports the proportion that occurred in the context of bed-sharing. Methods A retrospective population-based case series study was conducted of infants (≤365 days) who died in a sleeping context during the period 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2010 in the state of Victoria, Australia. Information about the infant, caregiver, sleeping environment and bed-sharing was collected from a review of the coroner’s death investigation record. Results During the 3-year study period, 72 infant deaths occurred in a sleeping context. Of these, 33 (45.8 %) occurred in the context of bed-sharing: n = 7 in 2008; n = 11 in 2009; and n = 15 in 2010. Further analysis of the 33 deaths occurring in the context of bed-sharing showed that in this group, bed-sharing was largely intentional, habitual and most often involved the mother as one of the parties. Conclusions Given the case series nature of the study design, a causal relationship between bed-sharing and infant death could not be inferred. However the fact that nearly half of all sleep-related deaths occurred in the context of bed-sharing, provides strong support for the need to undertake definitive analytic studies in Australia so that evidence-based advice can be provided to families regarding the safety of bed-sharing practices.

To describe the relationship between maternal education and child health outcomes at 12 months of age in a cohort of children in urban Australia, and to determine whether this relationship could be explained by the intermediate factors of maternal health behaviour and the social environmental context. Data were derived from The Environments for Health Living Griffith Birth Cohort Study. Women attending their third trimester antenatal appointment at one of three public hospitals were recruited between 2006 and 2010 and invited to complete a 48-item, baseline self-administered questionnaire. Twelve months following the birth of their baby, a follow-up questionnaire consisting of 63 items was distributed. Women for whom complete follow-up data were not available were different from women who did complete follow-up data. The children of women with follow-up data—whom at the time of their pregnancy had not completed school or whose highest level of education was secondary school or a trade—had respectively a 59 and 57 % increased chance of having had a respiratory/infectious disease or injury in the first year of life (according to parent proxy-reports), compared to children of women with a tertiary education. When maternal behavioural and social environmental factors during pregnancy were included in the model (n=1914), the effect of secondary education was still evident but with a reduced odds ratio of 1.35 (95 % CI 1.07–1.72) and 1.19 (95 % CI 0.87–1.64), respectively. The effect of not having completed school was no longer significant. Results indicate that the relationship between maternal education and child outcomes may be mediated by maternal social environmental and behavioural factors. Results are likely an underestimation of the effect size, given the under representation in our cohort of participants with maternal characteristics associated with elevated risk of infant morbidity.

Research on risk judgments about hazards has not examined risk perception inside and outside the affected regions when a disaster occurs in an unexpected location. This research examined preparedness and judgments of earthquake risk after the 2011 Christchurch earthquake in three New Zealand cities: Christchurch, Wellington, and Palmerston North. We selected Christchurch, because its citizens did not expect an earthquake (but it occurred there); Wellington, because its citizens expected an earthquake (but it did not occur there); and Palmerston North, because its citizens did not expect an earthquake (and it did not occur there) and is thus comparable to Christchurch before the earthquakes. The research examined the relation of participant city to risk assessments for before (recall) and after the earthquakes, participants’ attributions for their risk judgments and for (not) preparing, and earthquake damage for Christchurch participants. Participants reported that prior to the earthquakes, they saw an earthquake as more likely in Wellington than in Christchurch and Palmerston North. In all three samples, expectations of another earthquake in Christchurch were significantly higher after the Christchurch earthquakes. Palmerston North expectancies of a local earthquake were also higher after the earthquakes, whereas Wellington citizens’ expectancies of a local earthquake were only marginally higher. Preparations increased after the earthquakes, particularly in Christchurch. These findings suggest that prior expectancies and disaster experiences affect earthquake risk judgments and preparation inside and outside the affected region.

Background Comorbidity is known to affect length of hospital stay and mortality after trauma but less is known about its impact on recovery beyond the immediate post-accident care period. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of pre-existing health conditions in the cost of recovery from road traffic injury using health service use records for 1 year before and after the injury. Methods Individuals who claimed Transport Accident Commission (TAC) compensation for a non-catastrophic injury that occurred between 2010 and 2012 in Victoria, Australia and who provided consent for Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme (PBS) and Medicare Benefits Schedule (MBS) linkage were included ( n = 738) in the analysis. PBS and MBS records dating from 12 months prior to injury were provided by the Department of Human Services (Canberra, Australia). Pre-injury use of health service items and pharmaceuticals were considered to indicate pre-existing health condition. Bayesian Model Averaging techniques were used to identify the items that were most strongly correlated with recovery cost. Multivariate regression models were used to determine the impact of these items on the cost of injury recovery in terms of compensated ambulance, hospital, medical, and overall claim cost. Results Out of the 738 study participants, 688 used at least one medical item (total of 15,625 items) and 427 used at least one pharmaceutical item (total of 9846). The total health service cost of recovery was $10,115,714. The results show that while pre-existing conditions did not have any significant impact on the total cost of recovery, categorical costs were affected: e.g. on average, for every anaesthetic in the year before the accident, hospital cost of recovery increased by 24 % [95 % CI: 13, 36 %] and for each pathological test related to established diabetes, hospital cost increased by $10,407 [5466.78, 15346.28]. For medical costs, each anaesthetic led to $258 higher cost [174.16, 341.16] and every prescription of drugs used in diabetes increased the cost by 8 % [5, 11 %]. Conclusions Services related to pre-existing conditions, mainly chronic and surgery-related, are likely to increase certain components of cost of recovery after road traffic trauma but pre-existing physical health has little impact on the overall recovery costs.

Purpose Understanding individual factors associated with return to work (RTW) post-injury is an important goal of compensation systems research. The aim of the present study was to determine factors associated with time to return to work following acute unintentional injuries. Methods A prospective cohort study was conducted in Victoria, Australia. The cohort comprised 133 persons who were employed at the time they were admitted to one of three study hospitals. Baseline health status data was obtained retrospectively at one-week post-injury and participants were further surveyed at 1, 6, 12, 26 and 52 weeks post-injury to measure recovery. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to examine the association between potential prognostic factors and time to RTW during the 12 month study. Results At the end of 12 months follow-up, 81.2% of the study cohort had returned to work. Older age, increased injury severity, self reported symptomatic pain and poor mental health at 1 week post-injury were associated with extended time to RTW. A significant statistical interaction between the receipt of compensation and high social functioning as measured by the SF-36 or strong social relationships as measured by the Assessment of Quality of Life was associated with earlier RTW. Participants reporting strong social relationships and high social functioning at 1 week post-injury and entitled to injury compensation returned to work 2.05 and 3.66 times earlier respectively, than similar participants with no entitlement to compensation. Conclusions Both injury-related and psychosocial factors were associated with the duration of time to RTW following acute unintentional injuries. This study replicated previously reported findings on social functioning and compensation from an independent acute trauma sample. Programs or policies to improve social functioning early post-injury may provide opportunities to improve the duration of time to RTW following injury.

The significant morbidity and mortality associated with prostate cancer can universally be attributed to the consequences of metastases. Among prostatic carcinomas, there is a subset of neoplasms which invade bone, while other subsets do not, at least before the patient dies. Those tumours that can invade bone form a prognostically adverse group, but they cannot yet be identified before metastasis to bone has occurred. Therefore, markers capable of predicting tumour progression are required to avoid unnecessary treatment. This study aimed to define the changes in glycan expression occurring during the progression of metastatic prostatic carcinoma and investigate the biological role of fucosylated and sialylated glycans in the progression of prostatic carcinoma and its metastases, especially to bone. Blocks from 29 necropsy cases of prostatic carcinoma, including 62 deposits, were sectioned and stained with H&E, five biotinylated lectins: AAA, UEA-1, DBA, MAA and SNA using a lectin-biotin avidin-peroxidase method, and monoclonal antibodies against prostate specific antigen, Lewisa, sialyl Lewisa and sialyl Lewisx antigens. The results showed differences in the glycophenotype between the primary sites and the metastases. Those cells that metastasised to bone had a distinct glycophenotype, which was demonstrated by the absence or masking of almost all fucosyl residues (i.e. not recognised by AAA and UEA-1). The prostatic cancer cells in sclerotic bone metastases failed to demonstrate Lewis antigens, which were present in all the corresponding primary lesions. On the other hand, non-bone metastases showed a variable expression of the antigens both in the primary lesion and in the metastatic deposits. The findings of this study showed that bone metastasis is associated with two very different glycan phenotypes, the first in the primary tumours and the second in the bone metastases. This study also showed that prostatic metastatic tumours apart from bone metastases have glycophenotype that, in some metastases, are similar to those of the primary sites while in others they are similar to that of the bone metastases.

Preparedness is a key dependent variable in many studies examining people’s response to disasters such as earthquakes. A feature of many studies on this issue, however, is the lack of attention given to psychometric issues when constructing measures of preparedness. With regard to earthquake preparation, for example, many studies could be greatly improved by the use of a valid and reliable measure of preparedness. This research developed such a measure that assessed both low-level preparedness, such as having an emergency kit, and high-level preparedness, such as altering home structures to mitigate damage. Studies of Wellington (New Zealand) residents using two samples totalling n=652 showed that 23 items measuring these different aspects of earthquake preparation could be combined into a reliable, valid, unifactorial scale. This brief scale should have utility in multivariate studies of earthquake preparation, either as a dependent variable, where preparation is the outcome variable of primary interest, or as one of several independent variables, where preparation and other measures predict another outcome variable.

Information about the saccharides expressed in gastric mucosa is mostly limited to the glycan content of gastric mucins and there are only a few studies of the glycoprofiling of the constituent cells and their components. Knowledge of the glycan expression of normal gastric mucosa is necessary for the interpretation of the significance of changes of expression in disease. A lectin histochemical study of normal human gastric (body) mucosa was performed using 27 lectins chosen to probe for a wide range of oligosaccharide sequences within several categories of glycoprotein glycans. There were marked differences in staining reactions in the various microanatomical structures of the mucosa, particularly between pits and glands with the former more closely resembling the surface epithelium. A notable feature was the degree of difference in the staining between a substantial sub-population of cells within the neck region and the epithelium of both the pits and glands. These neck cells resembled the pit cells with some lectins, glandular cells with some others and neither with some other lectins. Overall, the differences between the pit, gland and neck epithelia were diverse and numerous, and could not be explained by altered activity of a small set of glycosyltransferases. Widespread alterations of glycans must have occurred (affecting terminal and internal parts of their structures) and the very different glycotypes of the pit, neck and gland epithelia are, therefore, suggestive of the existence of three cell lineages within normal gastric epithelium. Published in 2004.

Cultured chondrocytes derived from the caudal and cephalic ends of embryonic chick sterna have been compared with each other and with whole sternum, by using a panel of 21 lectins to probe the distribution of oligosaccharides in glycoconjugates of cells and matrix at various times of culture or development. On culture in collagen gels, the cells changed their morphology with time, degrading glycan in the surrounding culture medium and depositing new matrix, the glycan content of which reflected the site of origin of the cells, indicating that the glycan phenotype of both cells and matrix (‘glycotype’) was predetermined and persistent. Sterna of embryonic chicks showed unexpected complexity in their distribution pattern of glycan, containing at least six distinct regions. Major regional temporal differences were evident among saccharides terminating in α-N-acetyl galactosamine and β-galactose, while changes in glycans terminating in fucose, sialic acid and α-mannose were somewhat less marked. Subsets of complex N-glycans changed little.

Background Work-related injuries in Australia are estimated to cost around $57.5 billion annually, however there are currently insufficient surveillance data available to support an evidence-based public health response. Emergency departments (ED) in Australia are a potential source of information on work-related injuries though most ED's do not have an 'Activity Code' to identify work-related cases with information about the presenting problem recorded in a short free text field. This study compared methods for interrogating text fields for identifying work-related injuries presenting at emergency departments to inform approaches to surveillance of work-related injury. Methods Three approaches were used to interrogate an injury description text field to classify cases as work-related: keyword search, index search, and content analytic text mining. Sensitivity and specificity were examined by comparing cases flagged by each approach to cases coded with an Activity code during triage. Methods to improve the sensitivity and/or specificity of each approach were explored by adjusting the classification techniques within each broad approach. Results The basic keyword search detected 58% of cases (Specificity 0.99), an index search detected 62% of cases (Specificity 0.87), and the content analytic text mining (using adjusted probabilities) approach detected 77% of cases (Specificity 0.95). Conclusions The findings of this study provide strong support for continued development of text searching methods to obtain information from routine emergency department data, to improve the capacity for comprehensive injury surveillance.

Background To determine factors predicting the duration of time away from work following acute orthopaedic non life threatening trauma Methods Prospective cohort study conducted at four hospitals in Victoria, Australia. The cohort comprised 168 patients aged 18-64 years who were working prior to the injury and sustained a range of acute unintentional orthopaedic injuries resulting in hospitalization. Baseline data was obtained by survey and medical record review. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to examine the association between potential predictors and the duration of time away from work during the six month study. The study achieved 89% follow-up. Results Of the 168 participants recruited to the study, 68% returned to work during the six month study. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis identified that blue collar work, negative pain attitudes with respect to work, high initial pain intensity, injury severity, older age, initial need for surgery, the presence of co-morbid health conditions at study entry and an orthopaedic injury to more than one region were associated with extended duration away from work following the injury. Participants in receipt of compensation who reported high social functioning at two weeks were 2.58 times more likely to have returned to work than similar participants reporting low social functioning. When only those who had returned to work were considered, the participant reported reason for return to work " to fill the day" was a significant predictor of earlier RTW [RR 2.41 (95% C.I 1.35-4.30)] whereas "financial security" and "because they felt able to" did not achieve significance. Conclusions Many injury-related and psycho social factors affect the duration of time away from work following orthopaedic injury. Some of these are potentially modifiable and may be amenable to intervention. Further consideration of the reasons provided by participants for returning to work may provide important opportunities for social marketing approaches designed to alleviate the financial and social burden associated with work disability.