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To evaluate the atmosphere–ocean coupled data assimilation system developed at the Meteorological Research Institute, the lead-lag relation between the intraseasonal variations (with a time scale of 20–100 days) in precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) is examined in the tropics. It is shown that the relationship over the tropical western Pacific in the coupled reanalysis experiment (CDA) follows the observed relationship more closely than that in the uncoupled reanalysis experiment (UCPL). However, the lead-lag correlations with the observed SST are almost identical between precipitations in CDA and UCPL, indicating that the atmospheric component is strongly constrained by atmospheric observations and hardly affected by the SSTs as boundary conditions. Better representation of the SST–precipitation relationship in CDA is, thus, mostly due to the SST variation modified by the model physics. Comparison with additional reanalysis experiments using coupled and uncoupled systems that assimilate only in-situ observations without satellite observations suggests that the coupled model's physics complements the relatively weak observation constraints and reduces the degradation of the SST–precipitation relationship. Additional analysis for CDA suggests that the warming-to-cooling (cooling-to-warming) transition of the surface net flux, which is in phase with precipitation, is delayed from the positive (negative) peak of SST due to downward heat propagation in the ocean. Comparison of the oceanic near-surface temperature field with observation data indicates that the downward propagation of heat signals is too fast in CDA, resulting in smaller lags of transitions of the net heat flux and precipitation behind SST peaks.

This paper describes the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 2 (JMA/MRI-CPS2), which was put into operation in June 2015 for the purpose of performing seasonal predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 has various upgrades from its predecessor, JMA/MRI-CPS1, including improved resolution and physics in its atmospheric and oceanic components, introduction of an interactive sea-ice model and realistic initialization of its land component. Verification of extensive re-forecasts covering a 30-year period (1981–2010) demonstrates that JMA/MRI-CPS2 possesses improved seasonal predictive skills for both atmospheric and oceanic interannual variability as well as key coupled variability such as the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For ENSO prediction, the new system better represents the forecast uncertainty and transition/duration of ENSO phases. Our analysis suggests that the enhanced predictive skills are attributable to incremental improvements resulting from all of the changes, as is apparent in the beneficial effects of sea-ice coupling and land initialization on 2-m temperature predictions. JMA/MRI-CPS2 is capable of reasonably representing the seasonal cycle and secular trends of sea ice. The sea-ice coupling remarkably enhances the predictive capability for the Arctic 2-m temperature, indicating the importance of this factor, particularly for seasonal predictions in the Arctic region.

An ensemble of nine operational ocean reanalyses (ORAs) is now routinely collected, and is used to monitor the consistency across the tropical Pacific temperature analyses in real-time in support of ENSO monitoring, diagnostics, and prediction. The ensemble approach allows a more reliable estimate of the signal as well as an estimation of the noise among analyses. The real-time estimation of signal-to-noise ratio assists the prediction of ENSO. The ensemble approach also enables us to estimate the impact of the Tropical Pacific Observing System (TPOS) on the estimation of ENSO-related oceanic indicators. The ensemble mean is shown to have a better accuracy than individual ORAs, suggesting the ensemble approach is an effective tool to reduce uncertainties in temperature analysis for ENSO. The ensemble spread, as a measure of uncertainties in ORAs, is shown to be partially linked to the data counts of in situ observations. Despite the constraints by TPOS data, uncertainties in ORAs are still large in the northwestern tropical Pacific, in the SPCZ region, as well as in the central and northeastern tropical Pacific. The uncertainties in total temperature reduced significantly in 2015 due to the recovery of the TAO/TRITON array to approach the value before the TAO crisis in 2012. However, the uncertainties in anomalous temperature remained much higher than the pre-2012 value, probably due to uncertainties in the reference climatology. This highlights the importance of the long-term stability of the observing system for anomaly monitoring. The current data assimilation systems tend to constrain the solution very locally near the buoy sites, potentially damaging the larger-scale dynamical consistency. So there is an urgent need to improve data assimilation systems so that they can optimize the observation information from TPOS and contribute to improved ENSO prediction.

This paper describes the operational seasonal prediction system of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), the Japan Meteorological Agency/Meteorological Research Institute-Coupled Prediction System version 1 (JMA/MRI-CPS1), which was in operation at JMA during the period between February 2010 and May 2015. The predictive skill of the system was assessed with a set of retrospective seasonal predictions (reforecasts) covering 30 years (1981–2010). JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed reasonable predictive skill for the El Nino–Southern Oscillation, comparable to the skills of other state-of-the-art systems. The one-tiered approach adopted in JMA/MRI-CPS1 improved its overall predictive skills for atmospheric predictions over those of the two-tiered approach of the previous uncoupled system. For 3-month predictions with a 1-month lead, JMA/MRI-CPS1 showed statistically significant skills in predicting 500-hPa geopotential height and 2-m temperature in East Asia in most seasons; thus, it is capable of providing skillful seasonal predictions for that region. Furthermore, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was superior overall to the previous system for atmospheric predictions with longer (4-month) lead times. In particular, JMA/MRI-CPS1 was much better able to predict the Asian Summer Monsoon than the previous two-tiered system. This enhanced performance was attributed to the system’s ability to represent atmosphere–ocean coupled variability over the Indian Ocean and the western North Pacific from boreal winter to summer following winter El Nino events, which in turn influences the East Asian summer climate through the Pacific–Japan teleconnection pattern. These substantial improvements obtained by using an atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model underpin its success in providing more skillful seasonal forecasts on an operational basis.

An analysis is presented of snapshot data (eastward and northward velocity components: u and v; tracer such as potential temperature: τ) from an eddy-resolving (Rgrid: 1/12°) ocean model experiment, in order to explore a method for improving eddy-permitting model performance. Horizontal 3 × 3 R-grid averages give the eddy-permitting grid (P-grid: 1/4°) variables: 〈u〉, 〈v〉, and 〈τ〉, where 〈〉 denotes the spatial P-grid scale average. The difference between the horizontal tracer flux across the boundary face of a P-grid and that across the corresponding faces of R-grids is estimated as F2E. It is found that the correlations among the gradients of u, v, and τ give a good approximation F2C to the estimated flux F2E. The approximated flux is a function of these gradients and the grid size. A method is presented for implementing the F2C for density to an eddying ocean model as an additional advection. Practical experiments were conducted with a realistic configuration. It is shown that the zonal mean isotherms in the Kuroshio extension region are more flattened in the run using the proposed method than in another run using the conventional horizontal biharmonic operator, suggesting that the additional flux correction leads to an enhancement of sub-basin scale mixing.

Cytogenetic analysis has identified 12p gain as the most frequent abnormality in human testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs). It has been suggested that amplification and overexpression of stem cell-associated genes, including cyclin-D2, on the human chromosome 12p region are involved in germ cell tumorigenesis. By subtractive cDNA analysis, we identified Ddx1, a member of the DEAD-box protein family, as a gene predominantly expressed in the primordial germ cells of mouse embryos. Knockdown of Ddx1 in a mouse spermatogonia-derived cell line, GC-1spg, by short interference RNA repressed the expression of cyclin-D2, CD9 and GDF3 genes. In the mouse cyclin-D2 gene, a genomic DNA region between -348 and -329 was responsible for transcriptional activation by DDX1 based on reporter and gel shift assays. Similarly, DDX1 knockdown in the human TGCT cell line NEC8 repressed the expression of stem cell-associated genes localized on chromosome 12p13.3, including cyclin-D2, CD9 and NANOG. DDX1-knocked-down TGCT cells could not form solid tumors in nude mice. Furthermore, in situ hybridization revealed that DDX1 mRNA was produced in both seminoma and nonseminoma types of human TGCT samples. We conclude that DDX1 is a critical factor for testicular tumorigenesis.

A series of numerical experiments were conducted with a high-resolution (eddy-permitting) North Pacific model to simulate the formation and spreading of the salinity minimum associated with the North Pacific Intermediate Water (NPIW). It was found that two factors are required to simulate a realistic configuration of the salinity minimum: a realistic wind stress field and small-scale disturbances. The NCEP reanalyzed wind stress data lead to better results than the Hellerman and Rosenstein wind stress data, due to the closer location of the simulated Oyashio and Kuroshio at the western boundary. Small-scale disturbances formed by relaxing computational diffusivity included in the advection scheme promote the large-scale isopycnal mixing between the Oyashio and Kuroshio waters, simulating a realistic configuration of the salinity minimum. A detailed analysis of the Oyashio water transport was carried out on the final three-year data of the experiment with reduced computational diffusivity. Simulated transport of the Kuroshio Extension in the intermediate layer is generally smaller than the observed value, while those of the Oyashio and the flow at the subarctic front are comparable to the observed levels. In the Oyashio-Kuroshio interfrontal zone the zonally integrated southward transport of the Oyashio water (140–155°E) is borne by the eddy activity, though the time-mean flow reveals the existence of a coastal Oyashio intrusion. In the eastern part (155°E–180°) the zonally integrated transport of the Oyashio water indicates a southward peak at the southern edge of the Kuroshio Extension, which corresponds to the branching of the recirculating flow from the Kuroshio Extension.

In recognition that similarity in the density balance leads to resemblance in circulation between the two-dimensional non-rotating and three-dimensional rotating systems which have similar density stratification, we investigate convection induced by cooling at one side wall and heating at the sea surface by using a two-dimensional non-rotating model as idealized representation for the deep Pacific circulation. In the model, various vertical profiles are taken for the side wall cooling, which are assumed to correspond to the density structure of the Anatarctic Circumpolar Current. In a small diffusivity range, two important features are found to be robust against change in the vertical profile of the side wall cooling. One is that the density stratification is horizontally almost uniform. The other is that the balance in the density equation between the vertical advection and the vertical diffusion holds in the interior. Consequently, the vertical density balance, together with the equation of continuity, determines the circulation pattern for the prescribed vertical profile of the side wall cooling. The multi-layered meridional flow, which is expected to exist in the deep Pacific, is shown to form for certain vertical profiles of the side wall cooling.

Effects of the presence of a circumpolar region on buoyancy-driven circulation are investigated by using an idealized numerical ocean model. Comparison of circulation and meridional density (heat) transport is made between a closed ocean and an ocean with a cyclic gap near its southern boundary. The presence of the circumpolar region leads to disconnection of the meridional overturning across the circumpolar region. And the circumpolar eastward flow reaches the bottom of the ocean. It is essential for this that the pycnocline is deeper than the bottom of the gap. Since the amount of the mass transported northward must return southward at the levels deeper than the bottom of the cyclic gap, the weak stratification, hence weak vertical geostrophic shear, at the deeper levels leads to inactive communication across the circumpolar region. Meridional heat transport across the circumpolar region is made mainly by horizontal diffusion for the ocean with the cyclic gap, while the contribution of the advection is dominant for the closed ocean. Sensitivity of meridional heat transport to change in horizontal diffusivity is studied. The meridional heat transport for the ocean with the cyclic gap is more sensitive than for the closed ocean. The change in heat transport occurs not only in the circumpolar region but also in the rest of the ocean. It is suggested that subgrid scale phenomena, especially mesoscale eddies, in the circumpolar region controls the whole ocean to a great extent.