1. Large-scale emergence of regional changes in year-to-year temperature variability by the end of the 21st century
- Author
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Olonscheck, Dirk, Schurer, Andrew P., Lücke, Lucie, and Hegerl, Gabriele C.
- Subjects
Multidisciplinary ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Science ,General Physics and Astronomy ,General Chemistry ,010502 geochemistry & geophysics ,01 natural sciences ,Article ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,Projection and prediction ,Attribution ,13. Climate action ,Climate and Earth system modelling ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
Global warming is expected to not only impact mean temperatures but also temperature variability, substantially altering climate extremes. Here we show that human-caused changes in internal year-to-year temperature variability are expected to emerge from the unforced range by the end of the 21st century across climate model initial-condition large ensembles forced with a strong global warming scenario. Different simulated changes in globally averaged regional temperature variability between models can be explained by a trade-off between strong increases in variability on tropical land and substantial decreases in high latitudes, both shown by most models. This latitudinal pattern of temperature variability change is consistent with loss of sea ice in high latitudes and changes in vegetation cover in the tropics. Instrumental records are broadly in line with this emerging pattern, but have data gaps in key regions. Paleoclimate proxy reconstructions support the simulated magnitude and distribution of temperature variability. Our findings strengthen the need for urgent mitigation to avoid unprecedented changes in temperature variability., Climate change does not only increase mean temperatures, but also the magnitude of year-to-year temperature variability. Here, the authors use large model ensembles to show that these changes can be statistically distinguished from the baseline variability in most regions of the world during the 21st century.
- Published
- 2021