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Given that the passive performance simulation of buildings based on typical meteorological year data and specific design schemes makes it challenging to respond to climate change and refine design requirements on time, this article established a passive performance prediction model for future buildings considering multi-dimensional variables including climate change, building design, and operational characteristics. For high thermal insulation buildings under future climates, the mild climate zone is more sensitive than the others, cooling energy demand is more sensitive than heating demand, apartments are more sensitive than office buildings, and passive survivability is more sensitive than energy performance; for buildings of the same type located in the same climate zone, thermal design solutions determine the increase rate of cooling demand. The potential benefits of climate warming on heating demand reduction are almost zero, but the cooling demand increases significantly, with apartments and office buildings increasing up to 22.1% and 5.0%, respectively. Buildings generally overheat in the future, and the increase rate of the mild zone far exceeds other zones with duration and severity being 3004.8% and 877.7% for apartments, and 884.3% and 288.9% for office buildings, respectively.

Energy storage systems combined with demand response resources enhance the performance reliability of demand reduction and provide additional benefits. However, the demand response resources and energy storage systems do not necessarily guarantee additional benefits based on the applied period when both are operated simultaneously, i.e., if the energy storage system is used only to increase the performance reliability of demand response resources, the benefit decreases. Thus, to maximize the benefits via an energy storage system with multiple purposes (demand response, electricity sales, peak shaving, etc.), we must allocate the proper output (charging and discharging energy) for each purpose. This paper proposes a method for calculating the optimal demand response registration capacity, which maximizes the overall profit via the energy storage system hybrid operation. In addition, the profits and optimal demand response registration capacity of energy storage systems with multiple purposes depend on the energy storage system and power conditioning system capacity; therefore, this study estimates the optimal demand response registration capacity and optimal combination with an energy storage system and power conditioning system capacity. Consequently, the maximum profit occurred when the average C-rate was 0.81C and when the optimal registration capacity was 81% of its maximum.

Funder: Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council; doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000266, Electrified railways are becoming a popular transport medium and these consume a large amount of electrical energy. Environmental concerns demand reduction in energy use and peak power demand of railway systems. Furthermore, high transmission losses in DC railway systems make local storage of energy an increasingly attractive option. An optimisation framework based on genetic algorithms is developed to optimise a DC electric rail network in terms of a comprehensive set of decision variables including storage size, charge/discharge power limits, timetable and train driving style/trajectory to maximise benefits of energy storage in reducing railway peak power and energy consumption. Experimental results for the considered real-world networks show a reduction of energy consumption in the range 15%–30% depending on the train driving style, and reduced power peaks.

The importance of climate protection and sustainability is steadily increasing all over the world. However, there is a large potential for reducing emissions in the heating demand reduction and renewable heat supply of buildings that needs to be addressed. Therefore, a method was developed within the scope of this work that allows local decision-makers such as energy supply companies, project developers and the public sector to calculate, evaluate and compare different scenarios to make buildings and city districts more sustainable based on few and widely available input data. It includes both the determination of the heat demand and measures for its reduction as well as the selection and simulation of centralised and decentralised supply systems. A combination of different methods from the fields of geoinformatics, heuristic decision-making and object-oriented modelling is used. The latter forms a focal point in the work with the development of a data model for energy system components to enable automatic simulation. The applicability as well as the transferability of the method is shown in several case studies. Based on the simulations results, which can be related to CO2emissions as well as costs, recommendations for the implementation of measures can be given and implemented.The paper is a summary of the dissertation with the title “Automatische Simulation von Wärmebedarf und -versorgung auf Quartiersebene” by the first author at Karlsruhe Institute for Technology.

An urban water supply network (WSN) is a crucial lifeline system that helps to maintain the normal functioning of modern society. However, the hydraulic analysis of a significantly damaged WSN that suffers from pipe breaks or leaks remains challenging. In this paper, a probability-based framework is proposed to assess the functionality of WSNs in the aftermath of powerful earthquakes. The serviceability of the WSN is quantified by using a comprehensive index that considers nodal water flow and nodal pressure. This index includes a coefficient that reflects the relative importance of these two parameters. The demand reduction (DR) method, which reduces the water flow of nodes while preventing the negative pressure of nodes, is proposed. The difference between the negative pressure elimination (NPE) method and the DR method is discussed by using the example of a WSN in a medium-sized city in China. The functionality values of the WSN are 0.76 and 0.99 when nodal pressure and nodal demands are used respectively as the index of system serviceability at an intensity level that would pertain to an earthquake considered to occur at a maximum level. When the intensity of ground motion is as high as 0.4 g, the DR method requires fewer samples than the NPE method to obtain accurate results. The NPE method eliminates most of the pipes, which may be unrealistic.

Multi-objective unit commitment (MOUC) problem incorporated with price elasticity demand with the participation of residential customers in ancillary service markets having multilevel incentives using hybrid method is proposed. In this paper, the proposed hybrid method is the combination of non-dominant sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) and population variant differential evolution (PVDE) algorithm. The hybrid method is implemented in scheduling thermal units for achieving an optimal value of multi-objective, namely cost and emission. Demand side management has become a key factor in compensating the unreliable situation during peak hours of load demand. Intervention of consumers in incentive based demand response programs (DRP) for diminishing of peak loads in peak times is applied. Demand reduction request (DRR) from entities insists the customers to participate in the DRP based on their comfort level of engaging air conditioners and allocates the incentives, which is beneficial for both customers and utilities. The proposed method is examined on IEEE thirty nine bus system with ten generators and also on 17 unit system with 50, 80 and 100 percent compromise of customers in DRP.

The growing population has resulted in the need for new alternatives that guarantee water supply to the population. Among the alternatives, there is the individual system for capturing and utilizing rainwater. The objective of this article was to test a municipal policy that makes it mandatory to implement the system and to attest how much it can optimize the current public water supply system through the construction of a simulation model. The simulation considered the policy implementation in one city, and the analysis of the results showed the effectiveness of the policy, which can optimize an average of 114,275.00 m3 in 2030, with demand reduction. However, it was verified that the isolated initiative is not sufficient to solve the problem of supply and demand. There is a need to expand the implementation of the policy to other cities supplied by the studied macro public system. Also, if the current management practices remain, the projection is that the current system will not guarantee supply for the coming years, mainly due to the strong impact of tourism on demand, needing new sources of supply, techniques and management strategies.

Reducing emissions will require significant changes in the production and consumption of emissions-intensive energy. These changes will necessitate two broad sets of actions: first, energy-intensive end-use sectors must reduce their demand for energy by becoming more energy efficient, and second, energy systems and the energy supplies they use must become less carbon-intensive. In this paper, we describe a set of emissions analysis methods to distinguish between these two actions, showing whether an end-use sector (represented by a jurisdiction’s economy) is coupled with or decoupled from the energy system, or the energy system and its energy supplies are carbonizing or decarbonizing, or some combination of (de)coupling and (de)carbonizing. We then apply the method to the changes in the economy, energy supply, and emissions of the members of the G20 between 2008 and 2017. The results show that 14 members experienced a degree of coupling and that for 18 members, and globally, the principal reason for any degree of emissions decline was demand reduction as opposed to changes to their energy systems. We conclude by suggesting significant decarbonization efforts are needed through the replacement and restructuring of energy systems and their energy sources.

Advancements in computational technologies for residential energy management have become widespread due to increased energy usage and peak demand in households. Controlled switching of appliances during peak periods for energy reduction is one of such solutions. However, this technique may constrict the consumer’s flexibility to utilize desired appliances to fulfil their needs. This study proposes a peak load control technique based on an end-use appliance prioritization and event detection algorithm. A noteworthy feature of the technique is the users’ preferred appliance (UPA), which provides the occupants with the flexibility to use any electric load to fulfill their needs at any time whether peak demand control has been initiated or not. Furthermore, to address the challenging issue around the uncertain and varying nature of the users’ energy usage pattern, an empirical bottom-up approach is adopted to characterize the consumers’ diverse end-use behavior. The results obtained show good performance in terms of peak demand and energy consumption reduction, with 3% to 20% and at least 14.05% in demand reduction for time of use (ToU) periods and energy savings, respectively. These offer a further perspective on demand side management, affording load users a new cost-saving energy usage pattern.

This paper intends to address the effect of energy efficiency and load management measures on load diagrams. In order to assess this specific impact, diagrams of load variations caused by energy efficiency measures are proposed. A case study is used to illustrate the effects of energy efficiency measures implemented under the Portuguese plan for the promotion of efficient electricity use (PPEC). The diagrams of load variations were estimated for measures targeting the residential sector which were approved in the six PPEC editions launched until presently. The measures were grouped according to the targeted energy service. The results of this case study indicate that energy distribution operators can change their load diagram by implementing energy efficiency measures in consumer dwellings, with demand reduction at critical periods. It is shown that energy efficiency in lighting measures can help smoothen the evening demand peak at 10 p.m. On the other hand, the effect of hot water measures, although beneficial in terms of energy saving, may increase the negative power gradient occurring at 9 a.m. due to photovoltaic generation under clear sky conditions. Diagrams of load variations can help to estimate the impact of energy efficiency measures on the network load diagram and can give important information for decision support to the distribution system operator, the utilities, and the energy regulator.

The complex nature of water resources and the related uncertainty cause decision making to be difficult in practice. In this study, two multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) methods, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), were applied to determine the best scenario adapting to climate change in agriculture for the Gharanghu basin in Northwest Iran for a 30-year period (2040-2069). Reservoir efficiency indexes were used as evaluation criteria. Specifically, the preference of each criterion relative to the other criteria was determined based on experts’ opinions. Five management scenarios were considered, involving reductions in agricultural water demand by 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25%, respectively. By applying the AHP approach, the consolidated weight of each criterion was calculated; the best adaptation scenario to climate change was determined; the inconsistency rate was calculated; and sensitivity analysis was also performed. The AHP results showed that the fifth scenario (25% demand reduction) with a weight of 33.5% was the best one for agricultural water demand management. The results obtained from the TOPSIS model indicated that the third scenario (15% demand reduction) with a weight of 20.8% was the best management scenario for agriculture in the period of climate change. Thus, estimation of uncertainty related to climate change is critical to choosing the best alternative using the MCDM models. Uncertainty analysis helps address the questions about whether the management scenarios are sustainable under unforeseen changes, and whether they are an ideal response to critical conditions of climate change.

Although demand-side management (DSM) needs to be more customer centred, either with or without smart technologies (e.g. smart grid), less attention has been paid to the developing world in relation to DSM strategy development. The main reasons have been lack of appropriate technology and capital costs. Importantly, there are alternative DSM strategies that require minimum or no cost to implement and provide immediate results, of which energy-saving behaviour of the occupants at residences is one. This study explores the potentiality of this energy-saving behaviour as a DSM strategy for the least developed economies, focusing particularly on Bangladesh. The literature suggests that energy-saving behaviour could reduce energy demand by a maximum of 21.9%. However, this potential DSM scheme seems underestimated in the national DSM programme of Bangladesh. The Energy Efficiency and Conservation Master Plan (EECMP) of Bangladesh (a DSM program) shows that efficiency improvement in the use of home appliances could reduce electricity demand in the residential sector by about 28.8%, but this does require a long time to be implemented, whereas the inclusion of energy-saving behaviour as a demand response strategy in residences along with the EECMP might achieve demand reduction of up to 50.7%. Although the findings from this study are specific to Bangladesh, these could be useful guidelines for the policymakers of other developing nations where national DSM strategy development is underway.

Interventions targeting consumer behavior may help to reduce demand for bushmeat in urban areas. Understanding the drivers of urban bushmeat consumption is crucial to guide such interventions; however the cultural and socio-psychological factors driving consumer behavior remain understudied. Through qualitative interviews with urban bushmeat consumers in Pointe Noire, Republic of Congo, we investigated perceptions of bushmeat and other animal proteins, and social norms regulating urban demand for bushmeat. The perception of bushmeat as natural, tasty and healthy, and a rare luxury product functioning as a symbol of social status, underpins social norms to provide bushmeat. The main barriers to purchasing were cost and availability. Locally produced fish, meat, and poultry were positively perceived as organic and healthy, whereas frozen imported animal proteins were perceived negatively as transformed, of poor quality and taste, and unhealthy. Our findings provide an initial baseline understanding of social-psychological drivers shaping consumption that can inform the design of bushmeat demand reduction campaigns.

One way to deal with the future effects of climatic changes on the water resources and to cope with water shortages in basins is to have a clear understanding of the future climate change trends. To this end, this study proposes an integrated hydrological-water transfer and supply (HWTS) framework including a coupled SWAT-Bi level programming model to investigate future optimal water supply between different sectors with regard to transaction right. Indeed, Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is applied to project the rate of streamflow under Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios of RCP2.6&RCP4.5 and future periods (2020–2040 & 204(Abbas et al. 2015)2060). In addition, a case study of the Hamoun wetland in southeastern of Iran is considered for calibration and validation of real historical data (2000–2016) and then simulation of future streamflow patterns (2020–2060). Next, simulated streamflow data extracted by SWAT is entered as the input of market based bi-level optimization model so that upper-level manager seeks optimization of the available water level in the reservoirs while the lower-level decision maker tries to minimize the economic loss due to water shortage between different sectors regarding transaction right. However, after solving the model with the Improved Particle Swarm Optimization (IBPSO) technique, the final results show that although not much economic profit will be made, but considering specific management strategies such as demand reduction schemes to conserve more water, the imbalance between supply and demand can be significantly improved.

Background Although commercial cultivation and trading of marijuana, commonly known as cannabis or dagga in the South African context, remains an illicit practice, adolescents actively engage in it. However, contextual influences that sustain adolescent involvement in illicit marijuana-related activties remain empirically unascertained. Objective This study sought to ascertain the various contextual influences of adolescent illicit marijuana cultivation and trading in two communities in the Ingquza Hill Local Municipality (IHLM) of South Africa, using the tenets of the Socio-Ecological Model (SEM). Methods The study utilised focus group discussions approach to interview thirty-three purposefully sampled participants who were recruited through the snowball sampling technique. A semi-structured interview guide was used to conduct the interviews, while thematic content analysis was used to analyse the data. Results We found that illicit adolescent marijuana cultivation and trading was influenced by eleven contextual factors that are grouped under four levels of socio-ecological influence. These include intrapersonal influences (knowledge and skills in marijuana cultivation and courage), interpersonal influences (peer and family influences), communal level influences (economic reasons, early childhood exposure to marijuana activities, protection of family lands, the topography of the area and soil fertility) and policy-related influences (lack of communal bylaws on marijuana activities and laxity in law enforcement). Conclusion It is recommended that substance abuse prevention policies and programmes focus on discouraging children from engaging in illicit marijuana activities in IHLM across the four tenets of SEM and curtailing adolescent involvement in marijuana cultivation and trading. There is also the need to incorporate the law enforcement approach into demand reduction strategies of the National Drug Master Plan (NDMP), which employs only an educative approach in its current form. Working agreements between municipal authorities, law enforcement agents and social service professionals also need to be strengthened to push demand reduction strategies for marijuana in communities to protect the rights of children as enshrined in the Children’s Act, 38 of 2005.

Background Few data on motivations for using new psychoactive substances (NPS) are available. However, the cost, the legal status, and their accessibility through channels like internet contributed to the popularity of NPS. The objective of this article are first to gain a deeper understanding of the culture surrounding NPS in Belgium and second to define the awareness of the users concerning the content of the NPS they are consuming. Methods Snowball sampling and partners in the drug demand reduction field were used as a gateway in order to reach a heterogeneous study population. In total, 45 users were recruited and in-depth interviews were conducted. The personal experiences of NPS users and their needs for support along the continuum of care were explored through an interview guideline, while subjects were given the opportunity to deposit a NPS sample for forensic analysis in a recognized laboratory. Results A diversity of profiles was found among NPS users but also a wide diversity in the motives to consume NPS: personal reasons such as pleasure, mind exploration, being connected to others, or out of curiosity, but also external reasons such as price, accessibility or the specific effects procured by certain NPS. The results showed as well that a majority of NPS users seem to be aware of the substances they are using. Conclusion Understanding the motivations of use is of importance to determine which type of NPS targeted interventions are adapted to different profiles of users.

Demand Response (DR) provides both operational and financial benefits to a variety of stakeholders in the power system. For example, in the deregulated market operated by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), load serving entities (LSEs) usually purchase electricity from the wholesale market (either in day-ahead or real-time market) and sign fixed retail price contracts with their end-consumers. Therefore, incentivizing end-consumers’ load shift from peak to off-peak hours could benefit the LSE in terms of reducing its purchase of electricity under high prices from the real-time market. As the first-of-its-kind implementation of Coupon Incentive-based Demand Response (CIDR), the EnergyCoupon project provides end-consumers with dynamic time-of-use DR event announcements, individualized load reduction targets with EnergyCoupons as the incentive for meeting these targets, as well as periodic lotteries using these coupons as lottery tickets for winning dollar-value gifts. A number of methodologies are developed for this special type of DR program including price/baseline prediction, individualized target setting and a lottery mechanism. This paper summarizes the methodologies, design, critical findings, as well as the potential generalization of such an experiment. Comparison of the EnergyCoupon with a conventional Time-of-Use (TOU) price-based DR program is also conducted. Experimental results in the year 2017 show that by combining dynamic coupon offers with periodic lotteries, the effective cost for demand response providers in EnergyCoupon can be substantially reduced, while achieving a similar level of demand reduction as conventional DR programs.

The study aims to provide an overview of the supply- and demand-side strategies used in community approaches for reducing alcohol-related harms, summarise key findings, and identify areas for consideration in future research. Whole-of-community interventions to reduce alcohol-related harms have largely used active population-level demand-reduction strategies, such as public-health messages, community outreach, and school-based education. Supply-side strategies (such as reducing physical availability of alcohol) and strategies targeted at high-risk populations (such as screening and brief intervention) are underutilised. Some small reductions in alcohol consumption indicators have been identified; however, evaluation is often via self-report and outcome reporting is poor, making appraisal difficult. Community approaches to reducing alcohol-related harm have largely relied upon active demand reduction strategies targeted at the whole population. A challenge for future research is to determine the optimal interaction between higher-level national responses—including changes in jurisdictional policies and legislative controls—and local-level action to maximise intervention reach and cost-effectiveness.

Environmentally aware automotive manufacturers recycle aluminum production scrap in closed-loop systems to generate environmental and financial savings. Further savings could be gained if material demand is reduced, through improving the material utilization of the production process. Since a more efficient production process generates less scrap, the opportunity for closed loop recycling reduces when material demand reduces. This paper investigates the interaction between material demand reduction and closed loop recycling for an aluminum intensive case-study vehicle. It identifies the greatest environmental and financial savings when both strategies are implemented together. It is shown that a ‘recycled content’ target does not capture these saving opportunities. It is recommended that automotive manufacturers set targets for both material utilization and scrap recovery, to simultaneously promote closed-loop recycling and material demand reduction.

The building sector has high untapped energy saving potential. The main tool to exploit this potential is conducting a building retrofit. Building retrofit does not only reduce the heat demand, but can cause peak shifting as well as major alternation in the technology requirements within a system. This paper presents the model DISTRICT-HP, which is developed as a novel methodology to quantify the system effects of building retrofit on a decentralized energy system. The paper includes a detailed description of the developed optimization model as well as an exemplary case study based on a German decentral energy system. Results show that the economic feasibility of building retrofit varies depending on the perspective of the investor. From a building owner's point of view, retrofitting is a less economically attractive measure than from a system point of view. Depending on the system conditions, the resulting system including retrofitting can have lower cost than a system without retrofitting. Savings from the demand reduction as well as from a flexible operation can lead to an increase in the economic attractiveness of building retrofit. This effect is emphasized from a system perspective since the room for using the flexibility potential increases. The decrease in temperature levels resulting from retrofitting a building, add to that flexibility, as shown in the case study, a heat pump can produce low temperature heat with higher efficiency, which can be stored in low temperature and then heated up when required.

Southeast Asia, a region supporting more threatened species than any other comparable continental area, is in the midst of a conservation crisis. Hunting constitutes the greatest current threat to the region’s threatened vertebrates and has resulted in many areas of largely intact forest losing much of their former vertebrate diversity and abundance. Though numerous hunting methods are used, capture with home-made snares is a major driver of this defaunation. Snares are cheaply constructed and easy to set but can be difficult to detect and are highly damaging to vertebrate populations due to their indiscriminate and wasteful nature. The primary response to snaring is the removal of snares by patrol teams: more than 200,000 snares were removed from just five of the region’s protected areas between 2010 and 2015. However due to the low opportunity costs of replacing snares, removal alone is largely ineffective. Without the proactive search, arrest and prosecution of snare-setters, along with incentives not to hunt, snares will continue to be replaced. Legislative reform that criminalises the possession of snares, and the materials used for their construction, inside and immediately adjacent to protected areas is also required. Consistent enforcement of such legislation is essential. This must be combined with longer-term demand reduction activities aimed at changing cultural attitudes and behaviors related to the consumption of wildlife products in Southeast Asia.

International law obliges states to consider the reduction of demand that fosters exploitation and leads to trafficking in human beings, without defining what such a demand could be. Demand is used in many lexical meanings in the anti-trafficking debate, rarely consistently and often in a market context. In a market context, demand means the willingness and capacity to purchase a good or service. This contribution describes how demand is used in anti-trafficking debates and explores what a consistent use of demand could contribute to the understanding of trafficking in human beings.

Water scarcity in China has long been discussed and studied, mostly in arid and semi-arid Northern China. However, temporary water scarcity caused by seasonal droughts hasn’t drawn enough attention still, while some humid regions in South China are readily to be encountered with seasonal droughts, especially in the background of climate change. In this study, a method based on System Dynamics (SD) and mathematical optimization is developed to analyze the situation of temporary water scarcity and optimize the water allocation under seasonal droughts, considering rapid urbanization, industrialization, and increasing food demand. And a case study in Nanchang Municipality, a typical humid region in Southern China, is presented. The simulation results show that conventional management scenarios including enforcing demand reduction strategies and increasing local water supply will not fill the water shortage gap, and the total water shortage rate will retain more than 9.0 % in special drought condition. Thus, we examine the water transfer scenario, and it proves to be effective in coping with the water shortage gap. The optimization results indicate that the water transferred from Ganjiang River to Fuhe River Water Demand Subsystem may account for 50.21 % of the total fresh water supply of Fuhe River Water Demand Subsystem, in September, under a certain drought condition. In addition, the current situation reveals fierce competition between social economic water needs and eco-environmental water requirements in local scale in dry condition. The situation argues that management of the distribution of water in space must be involved, and the simulation of the inter-basin transfer scenario proves it a necessary and effective countermeasure.

Toward diversifying the sources of electricity and ensuring the sustainability of power generation, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) is proposing an impressive plan for renewable energy utilization including waste-to-energy (WTE) facilities. The environmental values of WTE facilities in KSA have never been investigated. This research forecasted the potential environmental values of WTE facilities in KSA in the context of energy demand, greenhouse gas emission, and landfill area in comparison with complete landfilling option up to year 2032. Two scenarios were developed: Mass Burn with Recycling and Mass Burn. The research results have shown magnificent environmental values for WTE facilities. The Mass Burn with Recycling scenario shows potential energy demand reduction of about 55.6 million barrels of crude oil, greenhouse gas emission reduction of about 15.2 million metric ton carbon equivalent per year (MTCE/year), and landfill area saving of about 95.3 % in comparison with complete landfilling. Mass Burn scenario shows potential energy demand reduction of about 9.9 million barrels of crude oil, greenhouse gas emission reductions of about 4.8 million MTCE/year, and landfill area saving of about 90 % in comparison with landfilling. This research results shall support Saudi officials’ decision to develop WTE facilities in the Kingdom.

Reducing demand by increasing end-use energy efficiency on the demand side of energy systems may also have advantages in reducing fossil dependency and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the supply side. This paper addresses interactions between energy supply- and demand-side policies, by estimating the impact of measures addressing end-use energy efficiency and small-scale renewables uses in terms of (1) avoided large-scale electricity generation capacity, (2) final energy consumption, (3) share of renewables in final energy and (4) reduction of GHG emissions. The Portuguese energy system is used as a case study. The TIMES_PT bottom-up model was used to generate four scenarios covering the period up to 2020, corresponding to different levels of efficiency of equipment in buildings, transport and industry. In the current policy scenario, the deployment of end-use equipment follows the 2000–2005 trends and the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan targets. In the efficient scenarios, all types of equipment can be replaced by more efficient ones. Results show that aggressive demand-side options for the industry and buildings sector and the small-scale use of renewables can remove the need for the increase in large-scale renewable electricity capacity by 4.7 GW currently discussed by policy makers. Although these measures reduce total final energy by only 0–2 %, this represents reductions of 11–14 % in the commercial sector, with savings in total energy system costs of approximately 3,000 million euros2000—roughly equivalent to 2 % of the 2010 Portuguese GDP. The cost-effectiveness of policy measures should guide choices between supply shifts and demand reduction. Such balanced policy development can lead to substantial cost reductions in climate and energy policy.

This paper examines reports on work carried out for the European Commission to devise a methodology for estimating the potential impact of smart grids on carbon emissions. It first identifies functionalities that enable carbon benefits to be realised. Each functionality on the demand side is assumed to be mirrored on the supply side, as when dynamic peak shifting ‘replaces’ flexible peak generation. Metrics are developed to describe the state of markets and to estimate customer response to demand response initiatives. Quantitative analysis identifies where the greatest scope for emissions reduction lies, while qualitative assessment indicates where to expect more or less impact from smart grid deployment. The impact of smart grid functionalities by 2020 is then modelled for six representative EU markets (Austria, France, Germany, Great Britain, Portugal and Spain), using a detailed pan-European market model and also a high-level ancillary services model. Three scenarios are developed: baseline, in which no smart grid rollout is assumed; feasible, based on what could be achievable in the light of technology developments and with supportive legislation; and an intermediate expected scenario, in which new technologies are introduced but nothing else changes. The findings indicate the potential for emissions reductions by 2020. They also show that the potential is very unlikely to be reached without regulatory support for user engagement in demand response and demand reduction, along with enabling technology and programmes. Development of regulatory frameworks that allow full advantage to be taken of the new technologies emerges as a challenge for smart grid development.

Recently issued U.S. Federal Energy Regulatory Commission regulations require comparable treatment of demand reduction and generation in the wholesale electric market so that they are compensated at the same market clearing price. The new regulations measure demand reduction as a reduction from a “customer baseline,” a historically based estimate of the expected consumption. In this paper, we study the incentive effects on the efficiency of the demand response regulation using a static equilibrium model and a dynamic extension of the model. Our analysis provides three main results. Firstly, our analysis shows that the demand reduction payment will induce consumers to (1) inflate the customer baseline by increasing consumption above the already excessive level during normal peak periods and (2) exaggerate demand reduction by decreasing consumption beyond the efficient level during a demand response event. This result persists when applied to alternative baseline designs in a dynamic model. Secondly, we study alternative policy remedies to restore the efficiency of demand response regulation and introduce a new approach to define the customer baseline as a fixed proportion of an aggregate baseline. In particular, the aggregate baseline approach can significantly weaken or eliminate the incentive to inflate the baseline. Finally, we illustrate that if the baseline inflation problem is solved and demand and supply functions are linear, the current policy can produce a net social welfare gain. However, the welfare improvement requires that demand reduction be paid only when the wholesale price is at least twice the fixed retail rate. This argues that the policy should include a sufficiently high threshold price below which demand response is not dispatched.

This paper presents a comparative analysis of System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) and Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN). Both techniques are extensively used for water resources modelling due to their flexibility, effectiveness in assessing different management options, ease of operation and suitability for encouraging stakeholder involvement. Conversely, both approaches have several important differences that make them complementary. For example, while SDM is more suitable for simulating the feedback dynamics of processes, OOBN modelling is a powerful tool for modelling systems with uncertain inputs (or outputs) characterised by probability distributions. This comparative analysis is applied to the Kairouan aquifer system, Tunisia, where the aquifer plays an essential role for socio-economic development in the region. Both models produced comparable results using baseline data, and show their complementarity through a suite of scenario tests. It is shown that reducing pumping of groundwater to coastal cities may prove the key to reducing the current aquifer deficit, though local demand reduction must be considered to preserve the agricultural economy. It is suggested that water management assessment should be tackled using both approaches to complement each other, adding depth and insight, and giving a more coherent picture of the problem being addressed, allowing for robust policy decisions to be made.

Surface water is critical for meeting water needs in British Columbia’s Okanagan Basin, but the timing and magnitude of its availability is being altered through climate and land use changes and growing water demand. Greater attention needs to be given to the multiple, interacting factors occurring and projected to occur in this region if water is going to be sustainably provisioned to human users and available for ecosystem needs. This study contributes to that goal by integrating information on physical, biological and social processes in order to project a range of possible changes to surface water availability resulting from land-use, climatic and demographic change, as well as from Mountain Pine Beetle infestation. An integrated water management model (Water Evaluation and Planning system, WEAP) was used to consider future scenarios for water supply and demand in both unregulated and reservoir-supported streams that supply the District of Peachland. Results demonstrate that anticipated future climate conditions will critically reduce streamflow relative to projected uses (societal demand and ecological flow requirements). The surficial storage systems currently in place were found unable to meet municipal and instream flow needs during “normal” precipitation years by the 2050s. Improvements may be found through demand reduction, especially in the near term. Beyond the implications for the District of Peachland, this work demonstrates a method of using an accessible modeling tool for integrating knowledge from the fields of climate science, forest hydrology, water systems management and stream ecology to aid in water and land management decision-making.

Child maltreatment and substance abuse are both international public health priorities. Research shows that child maltreatment increases the risk for substance use and problems. Thus, recognition of this relationship may have important implications for substance demand reduction strategies, including efforts to prevent and treat substance use and related problems. Latin America and the Caribbean is a rich and diverse region of the world with a large range of social and cultural influences. To date, relatively little work has addressed the link between child maltreatment and substance use in the region. A working group constituted by the Inter-American Drug Abuse Control Commission (CICAD) and the Centre for Addiction and Mental Health (CAMH) in June, 2010 identified this area as a priority area for a multinational research partnership. This paper summarizes existing information on drug use and child maltreatment in six participating countries, Colombia, El Salvador, Jamaica, Nicaragua, Panama and Uruguay, and considers the implications of child maltreatment prevention for demand reduction strategies to address substance use issues. A CICAD/CAMH-sponsored multinational research partnership has been formed, which will involve research on the link between child maltreatment and substance misuse, expertise exchange and resource sharing.

To date, transnational environmental crime has been poorly attended to by the transnational organised crime and transnational policing discourse. Academics have focused on individual elements of environmental crime, neglecting a broader theoretical discussion, while national and international institutions have prioritised other forms of organised crime, giving little thought to the nuanced nature of transnational environmental crime and how this should be reflected in policing and countermeasures. This paper attempts to rectify this by conceptualising transnational environmental crime and suggesting ways forward for countermeasure development. The paper will begin by looking at the problem of environmental crime, its value, scope and effects, concluding that the damaging nature of transnational environmental crime demands a greater focus on its policing. The nature of transnational environmental crime will then be discussed by reference to traditional forms of organised crime. It will be argued that, while transnational environmental crime is a form of organised crime, and has some features in common with the traditional organised crimes, such as drug smuggling and people trafficking, it is the substantial differences that should guide the approach to developing countermeasures. The development of effective countermeasures, it is concluded, requires a significant change in policy at every level.

As irrigation demands usually take the largest share of water supply, paddy fallow is considered as a drought relieving measure in some Asian paddy growing countries by transferring the water saved to the municipal and industrial sectors. But the relationship between fallow area and irrigation demand reduction is not necessarily linear, there may be more than dozens combinations of fallow farm that can meet the same amount of irrigation demand reduction requirement. The Joint Count Statistics (JCS), an index commonly used in spatial analysis to measure the spatial coherence among cells was modified as a spatial aggregation index for evaluating the irrigation demand reduction effectiveness from a spatial perspective. This Modified JCS is supposed to identify the degree of spatial aggregation by taking underlying irrigation network into considerations. The modified JCS was proved to be effective to identify better fallow pattern through a case study in Taiwan.

Environmental consciousness has become increasingly important in present times, as evident by the examples from both everyday life and business practices. In the manufacturing sector, the efforts to reduce the impact of environmentally harmful activities have collectively been labeled as green supply chain management. Any major greening project would require efforts on the part of the entire supply chain. However, relatively few studies have addressed the issue of coordinating the green supply chain. We address the issue of vertical coordination in a green supply chain between the players at the upstream (say, a manufacturer) and downstream (say, a retailer) levels of the chain. In this paper, we focus on an interesting problem faced by manufacturer-retailer pairs (e.g., P&G, and Walmart) in the consumer products supply chains. The manufacturer has to decide on the wholesale price and the package size of its product. The manufacturer is labeled as a green manufacturer, since reducing the pack size of its product would help him save on environmentally costly transportation cost. Reduction in pack size helps the manufacturer also save on product packaging cost. Moreover, the reduced package size also results in cost savings for the retailer in terms of handling and storage. The retailer decides on the retail price and the shelf space to be allocated to the “green” manufacturer. The increase in allocation of shelf space has a demand expansion effect on the retail demand for the green manufacturer’s products. However, the decrease in pack size has a demand reduction effect on its demand, because larger pack sizes attract more consumer attention, and therefore, act as an advertising vehicle. Further, the retailer has limited shelf-space and has to balance the space allocation for the green manufacturer against the potential profitability of allocating that space to “other” manufacturers. In view of the above elements of complexity, it is interesting to examine the optimal prices charged, optimal reduction in size and optimal shelf-space allocation in this problem. We examine the problem for the cases of both integrated and decentralized channels. Our results show that the total profit is greater, pack sizes are smaller, and shelf-space allocation is greater in the integrated channel as compared to the decentralized channel. Retail prices can be greater or smaller in the decentralized channel as compared to the integrated channel, depending on certain values of the problem parameters. These results show that clearly there is scope for channel coordination in this problem setting for better profitability and environmental benefits. We propose a two-part tariff scheme which effectively coordinates the green supply chain in this problem setting.

Given a hybrid electricity market structure, demand response (DR) in wholesale electricity markets depends critically on the choice of customer baseline. This paper reviews alternative customer baseline designs, focusing on administrative and contractual approaches. Administrative customer baselines have been developed over many years to provide estimates of the counterfactual consumption levels that would have prevailed without demand-response programs. However, experience suggests that this approach is vulnerable to opportunities for gaming and could result in illusory demand reductions. With full locational marginal price (LMP) payment, this approach imputes double-payment incentives that could induce excessive demand reduction undermining the efficiency of DR programs. Alternatively, a contractual customer baseline approach provides transparent rights and obligations for a robust framework that restores efficient DR under full LMP payment. As a retail rate design that provides two-sided contractual customer baselines, demand subscription service and DR programs form a much needed connection between the wholesale and retail markets in ways that promote price-responsive demand in a smart grid future.

The main aim of this study is to compare how specific conditions in certain countries (in this case, the UK and Sweden) can stimulate or oblige householders to be more energy efficient, or can obstruct this. European goals for energy and emission reductions now constitute the main frame for long-term energy policy changes, but national governments develop and implement policy in contrasting ways and in different contexts. Important aspects are: geographical context, degree of liberalisation of electricity and gas industry, structure and composition of energy systems, metering and billing infrastructure, and the nature of electrical load problems. The following conditions are described and compared in this paper: (1) regulation to control residential consumption and emissions; (2) energy systems; (3) electricity pricing; (4) the role of utilities and other agents in residential demand reduction; (5) quality of feedback on energy use to the householder; and (6) customer behaviour and perceptions of energy use. The analysis is carried out with a view to ecological, economic and social aspects of energy systems. The comparison shows the significance of factors that are sometimes overlooked when considering the potential for demand reduction and load management, and produces some lessons and questions that are widely applicable.

One crucial aspect of drought management plans is to establish a link between basin drought state and management actions. Basin state is described by a drought indicator system that includes variables like precipitation, streamflow, reservoir inflow, reservoir storage and groundwater piezometric levels. Basin policy consists on a catalogue of management actions, ranging from enforcing demand reduction strategies to establishing priority of users to allocate scarce water or approving emergency works. In this paper, the methodology applied in the Tagus Basin Drought Management Plan to link operational drought indicators to policy actions in regulated water supply systems is presented. The methodology is based on the evaluation of the probability of not being able to satisfy system demands for a given time horizon. A simplified model of every water resources system in the basin was built to evaluate the threshold of reservoir volume that is required to overcome the drought situation without deficit. For each reservoir level, a set of policy actions is proposed with the goal of guaranteeing essential demands during drought conditions. The methodology was validated with a simulation of system behavior for 60 years of historic streamflow series, finding acceptable results in most systems.

Humans are often regarded as endpoints of water supply systems, their behaviour adjustable to match supply constraints or savings targets. But they are also its starting points: only by means of surveyors, scientists, engineers, governments and technocrats have the waters of Earth come to be systematised into extractable, managed and commodified resources available to meet human-defined objectives, such as improved public health and domestic convenience, in an environment made increasingly uncertain owing to global rearrangements of terrestrial resources (including carbon) by humans. An early responder to challenges of sustainability and climate change, the water sector developed demand reduction strategies that now provide examples—not all emulable—for adaptation strategies in other sectors. Broad acceptance of ‘triple bottom line’ sustainability, realisations that experts’ solutions are contestable by publics and require their cooperation, and growing responsibilities for demand management involving consumption and consumers, have all highlighted water’s social dimensions. But as in the climate change sector, where “The drivers of the carbon based economy are embedded in culture, history and politics, rarely the realm of biophysical scientists” (Bellette 2012, p.5), there is a problematic mismatch between the technical and scientific expertise of water managers and the nature of the demand they attempt to predict and control. Lacking expertise to deal with the complex social character of water demand, yet seemingly reluctant to recruit it, the water industry mobilised its supply-side experience to formulate resource-centred approaches that emphasised efficiencies, volumes and pricing. This strategy maps the limits of the water supply system, then determines how to change people’s water behaviours and household fittings to fit system constraints. Information and technology could turn householders into rational and efficient ‘micro-resource managers’; social marketing could convert them into guilty customers who would change their attitudes, Water Resour Manage (2013) 27:949–951 DOI 10.1007/s11269-012-0224-9

Developments in multimedia technology over the past decade has caused video-on-demand services to emerge as a new paradigm in home entertainment. Because of the large volume of data involved in the process and stringent continuity and real-time constraints, these services pose challenges that are different from the standard file transfer operations in the network. The necessity of efficient usage of scarce resources like network bandwidth and server capacity (in terms of I/O bandwidth) demands novel and easy-to-use schemes for scheduling continuous video streams. This paper presents an overview of the major scheduling policies that have emerged in the recent past. In particular, the paper provides detailed discussion on policies based on principles of broadcasting, batching, caching, and piggybacking or merging. Policies like look-ahead scheduling schemes that are designed exclusively to provide certain interactive VCR-like control operations are also covered. A conceptual comparison between the various classes of scheduling policies is carried out to identify common threads and key concepts. Performance of these policies in terms of bandwidth demand reduction, customer waiting time reduction, provision of interactive control by the user, and fairness of service are given special emphasis. The paper concludes with a discussion on the possible avenues of further reasearch and development in this potentially interesting and challenging field.

Drug policy advocates must move beyond simplistic concepts of supply reduction and demand reduction. A realistic drug policy must differentiate between drug use and abuse and must avoid contributing to the harm done by drug use. A harm reduction approach requires a more refined model representing the interactions of the complex system of variables which influences the outcomes of the drug experience. This paper examines some of the elements that should go into such a model.

This study examines three models of the individual's preference for home- and center-based telecommuting. Issues concerning the estimation of discrete models when the alternatives are non-exclusive are discussed. Two binary logit models are presented, one on the preference to telecomnmte from a center versus not telecommuting from a center (adjusted p2 = 0.24), and the other on the preference to telecommute from a center over telecommuting from home (adjusted 2 =0. 64). A nested lo git model is als o est imated on thefoll owing four alternatives: preferring not to telecommute, preferring either form of telecommuting, preferring to telecommute from home, and preferring to telecommute from a center (adjusted p: = 0.35). The results of the models illustrated the importance of attitudinal measures in measuring an individual's preference to telecommute. Oblique factor scores representing workplace interac- tion, stress, workaholism, internal control, and commute stress were staustically significant in some or all of the models. Other explanatory variables which were found to be consistently significant were education, job suitability, and age. Most respondents preferred either to telecom- mute from home or were indifferent between either form of telecommuting, which raises the question as to whether there really is a sizeable market niche to be filled by telecommutmg centers, and hence whether they may make a significant contribution to transportation demand reduction.

The reuse of injecting equipment in clinical settings is well documented in Africa and appears to play a substantial role in generalized HIV epidemics. The U.S. and the WHO have begun to support large scale injection safety interventions, increased professional education and training programs, and the development and wider dissemination of infection control guidelines. Several African governments have also taken steps to control injecting equipment, including banning syringes that can be reused. However injection drug use (IDU), of heroin and stimulants, is a growing risk factor for acquiring HIV in the region. IDU is increasingly common among young adults in sub-Saharan Africa and is associated with high risk sex, thus linking IDU to the already well established and concentrated generalized HIV epidemics in the region. Demand reduction programs based on effective substance use education and drug treatment services are very limited, and imprisonment is more common than access to drug treatment services. Drug policies are still very punitive and there is widespread misunderstanding of and hostility to harm reduction programs e.g. needle exchange programs are almost non-existent in the region. Among injection drug users and among drug treatment patients in Africa, knowledge that needle sharing and syringe reuse transmit HIV is still very limited, in contrast with the more successfully instilled knowledge that HIV is transmitted sexually. These new injection risks will take on increased epidemiological significance over the coming decade and will require much more attention by African nations to the range of effective harm reduction tools now available in Europe, Asia, and North America.