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Introduction The rotavirus (RV) vaccine Belgium Impact Study (RotaBIS) evaluated the vaccine effect on RV-related hospital care in children up to 5 years old over a period of 13 years. Different forces were identified that influence the reduction in hospital care. Our analysis aims to report on the current RotaBIS dataset and explore through model simulation whether, how, and when the results could have been improved. Methods As performed in previous assessments, this analysis evaluated RV-related events per year, per age group, RV nosocomial infections, hospitalization duration, and herd effect. It subsequently identified results that were surprising or unexpected. To know whether those data could have been improved through specific interventions, we developed a model with the forces acting on the disease transmission and the vaccine effect on RV-related hospital care. Scenario analysis of the forces should explain the current findings and identify ways to optimize the results. Results The RotaBIS data show that annual RV-related hospital cases (n = 1345 pre-vaccination) dropped by 70% (95% confidence interval [CI] 66–74%) by year 5 (n = 395) after vaccine introduction, and by 84% (95% CI 79–89%) by year 10 (n = 217). The herd effect during the first year was limited to 14% extra gain. During the last 5 years, small disease increases were seen biennially. The simulation model indicates that higher vaccine coverage of the major transmitters during the peak season of the first year of vaccination could have reduced RV-related hospital care by nearly 90% at 5 and 10 years after vaccine introduction owing to a higher herd effect. The smaller peaks observed in recent years would have been dramatically reduced. Conclusion The current RotaBIS data show a maintained reduction, around 76%, in RV hospitalization cases. Simulations show that these results could have been improved to an important extent with a more optimal initiation of the vaccination program. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov identifier, NCT01563146 and NCT01563159. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s40121-020-00345-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background During each winter the hospital quality of care (QoC) in pediatric wards decreases due to a surge in pediatric infectious diseases leading to overcrowded units. Bed occupancy rates often surpass the good hospital bed management threshold of 85%, which can result in poor conditions in the workplace. This study explores how QoC-scores could be improved by investing in additional beds and/or better vaccination programs against vaccine-preventable infectious diseases. Methods The Cobb–Douglas model was selected to define the improvement in QoC (%) as a function of two strategies (rotavirus vaccination coverage [%] and addition of extra hospital beds [% of existing beds]), allowing improvement-isocurves to be produced. Subsequently, budget minimization was applied to determine the combination of the two strategies needed to reach a given QoC improvement at the lowest cost. Data from Jessa Hospital (Hasselt, Belgium) were chosen as an example. The annual population in the catchment area to be vaccinated was 7000 children; the winter period was 90 days with 34 pediatric beds available. Rotavirus vaccination cost per course was €118.26 and the daily cost of a pediatric bed was €436.53. The target QoC increase was fixed at 50%. The model was first built with baseline parameter values. Results The model predicted that a combination of 64% vaccine coverage and 39% extra hospital beds (≈ 13 extra beds) in winter would improve QoC-scores by 50% for the minimum budget allocation. Conclusion The model allows determination of the most efficient allocation of the healthcare budget between rotavirus vaccination and bed expansion for improving QoC-scores during the annual epidemic winter seasons.